DJ : Capitalizing on CPI-induced DJ VolatilityThe recent volatility in the financial markets has left many investors on edge, particularly with the DJ turning red in response to the latest Consumer Prices Index (CPI) news. As prices dipped in the last session, signaling a possible start to a bearish trend, it's crucial for investors to stay vigilant and adaptable.
The CPI data for March revealed an unexpected acceleration, with a 0.4% increase compared to expectations of a 0.3% slowdown. Furthermore, the yearly rate surged to 3.5%, up from 3.2% in the previous month. These figures underscore the persistent pressure on prices, deviating from the market's anticipation of three rate cuts in 2024, slated to begin in June.
Amidst this uncertainty, it's imperative for investors to remain proactive and seek out opportunities amidst the market turbulence. While the prospect of a bearish turn may seem daunting, it also presents potential openings for savvy traders.
One strategy to capitalize on market downturns is to employ sell limit orders within the formation of a bearish channel. By strategically placing these orders, investors can position themselves to take advantage of potential pullbacks in prices. This approach requires careful analysis of market trends and patterns, but it can yield lucrative returns for those who are diligent and patient.
🟢 Our Previous Winning Idea:
US30
DOW JONES Secret Cycles you didn't know existed!On this analysis we examine the Dow Jones index (DJI) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame. A lot of market participants has started to get nervous because of this month's pull-back and this is the best way to keep a calm mindset and view the price action objectively. In order to see if the market has a legitimate reason to panic or not, the answer can be given by observing the index from a cyclical point of view.
To begin with, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the absolute multi-year Support level (since October 2010 only two candle closings below it, March 2020 COVID flash crash and recently the September 2022 inflation bottom). The market deems every pull-back towards it, a buy opportunity with the lowest possible risk.
Since the bottom of the 2008-2009 Housing Crisis, the 1M RSI bottoms on Lower Lows help us classify the multi-month phases into Cycles. The duration of each Cycle since the 1st, has been pretty consistent (39 to 48 months so far).
When the index closes a 1M candle below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the correction towards the 1M MA50 is usually under way. Also there is a striking consistency on the growth of each Cycle. As you can see, with the exception of the first (naturally the most aggressive since it was the start of the recovery after a Bear Cycle), every Cycle sees gains within the range of +70% and +77%.
As a result assuming the new Cycle follows a similar pattern, we can expect a minimum Target of 48850 (+70% from Low) and a Cycle ending on December 2025 (39 months from previous Low). Technically the index should peak around the the start of 2025, entering a volatile period towards the end of the year. This is as close to a projection one can make on such a long-term horizon and with tons of fundamental risks involved.
Where do you think Dow Jones will top at?
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Dow Jones(US30):🔴Possible scenarios🔴(Details on caption)
Well, as you can see Dow Jones in the daily chart swept the liquidity and created a new all-time high, then had a bearish reaction and shiffed the market structure as well.
after that, the price had a retracement from a bullish FVG to a bearish breaker block and continued to the sell side.
For now, there are two different bearish scenarios which I follow the first one.
First scenario: The price created the buy side liquidity below the balance price range in the premium. We all know it is a high-probability scenario that can push the price lower. So in this scenario, we wait to move higher, grab the buy side liquidity, and look for a sell position inside the BPR on a lower time frame.
Second scenario: If the price is strongly bearish we can expect the price to move to sell-side liquidity from inversion which has already tapped in.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️07/04/2024
🔎 DYOR
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US30 will start the bullish move to break 40,000 level**Monthly Chart**
Last month's candle closed bullish and created a new high at 39910.47 (slightly shy from 40000.00 round number - a new historical high). This month opened from the high of the previous high and paused at 40023.09 only to reject it and move lower. This suggests that the long-term trend might be over and we should start looking for the start of a downward trend move.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week candle closed as a bearish manipulated candle as there was a huge sell of around 40,000 level. This has provided a counter-trend trade for a bearish move. However, till now US30 has tried to break below the 38500 level but fails. In addition, given the FOMC announcement today, we will see how US30 will react to it. This might provide another push to the upside to break the 40,000 level once more and create a new high.
**Daily Chart**
The last daily candle closed as a “ Key reversal” as it sweeps the liquidity from the daily MC candles near the demand zone, this provides a strong trajectory that there will be another push to the upside to break 40,000 level. Today FOMC will create this momentum.
Big One Entered a big long on US30 here.
Price bottomed. Showed a strong buying action and closed above swing low resistance.
Price continuation showing strong bullish momentum and pattern to breakout of previous trend line to the upside, potential for reaching the 4h high.
Stop loss set below the Candle entered --> shown on chart.
Planning to move stop loss to breakeven as soon as price breaks above 39032.
A good point to have entered would have been when candles failed to close below 38709 and sa soon as the 30 minute candle pushed (from testing below that level) up to confirm the buyers.
US30DAILY
High tests and slowing down candles, therefore we should stay out and wait for the touch of the bottom of the wedge (38570)
4H
We still look like we are falling before and form of reversal. The trend has been bearish and is currently in a consolidation, leading us to expect an impulse.
1H
We still waiting for a breakout whether up or down.
15Min
Close your eyes and stay waiting
DOW JONES below the 1D MA50 after 5 months!Dow Jones (DJI) gave us an excellent sell entry following our last analysis (March 28, see chart below) as it got rejected and made a bearish reversal exactly where we expected it to:
Last Thursday it even broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in exactly 5 whole months (since November 03 2023)! This is a bearish break-out confirmation signal and we expect a new sell-off soon.
As you can see the former (dotted) Channel Down broke downwards and has given way to a (blue) Channel Down. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has now been turned into Resistance with one confirmed rejection already (April 04).
The Channel Down has fairly symmetrical Bearish Legs so far, -2.36% and -2.20%. Assuming the new will be at a -2.20% minimum, we are expecting a Lower Low at 38200.
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Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementDJIA (US30) could rise towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance. Could this index stall around this level before potentially reversing to drow lower towards the 1st support?
Pivot: 39,042.57
1st Support: 38,560.25
1st Resistance: 39,412.72
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NIKE - Just Buy It!Nike tends to have corrective phases every now and then. We are now seeing one of the biggest corrections to date. We could be correcting in excess of 50% which would put us in a great position to buy Nike for the longer term.
Nike is the world's largest supplier of athletic shoes and apparel and a major manufacturer of sports equipment, with revenue in excess of US$46 billion in its fiscal year 2022.
In other words, its very unlikely that Nike will go bust and so any dips should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Our first point of interest is the structure level at 80. Ideally we break below that in accordance Elliott Wave Theory. We want to see wave C go below wave B.
Our ideal buy zone is the 60 level where we have the -27 fib extension. Once we come towards that region, we'll be looking for any bullish price action indicating a reversal and the start of the next massive bullish leg. If we go even lower than 60, then it's more of a reason to buy and load up!
We're looking for targets of atleast 200% as first targets. This trade is one to hold for the long term.
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe@
US30DAILY
38800, our lower edge. We have a high test on the lower end of the wedge so we can zoom in to look for better information.
4H
38600, is a strong support from previous price.
1H
Break of 38900 will convince me of a bull run
15Min
38815, wait for the touch / bounce or breakthrough of this price
Dowjones under the pressure of a strong Dollar.As we prepare for tomorrow's trading session, our attention is directed towards US30, with a potential selling opportunity emerging around the 39100 zone. Currently, US30 is tracing a downtrend but undergoing a correction phase, drawing near the critical support and resistance area at 39100.
Augmenting our analysis with a fundamental perspective, the last Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showcased notable strength, expected to bolster the US Dollar's position. Furthermore, looming on the horizon is the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) event scheduled for this Wednesday. This economic indicator carries significant weight as it could provide additional validation for the Federal Reserve's forthcoming actions, potentially reinforcing the dollar's ascent.
Notably, a strengthening dollar often translates into bearish sentiment for stocks due to their inherent inverse correlation. This interplay between currency strength and stock market dynamics adds an intriguing layer to our analysis, informing our trading strategy for US30.
As astute traders, it's imperative to factor in both technical and fundamental aspects when navigating the markets. By leveraging these insights, we aim to seize the opportunities that tomorrow's trading session presents.
Stay vigilant and trade wisely!
Joe
YM (US30, Dow Jones Industrial Aveage) Puts in a Double TopYM (US30) 4 Hour, Fibs: Traded the first bear fib after the double top and saw it trade past its objective yesterday. The Dow has been one of the weaker indices of late, after outperforming most of the year. It didn't even make it up to the 50% line, selling off at the 38.2% line in the initial down move. Then, yesterday, on the rebound, it traded it's halfway back short. ####TRADE ALERT####
YM (DOW 30)
Call: Short
Entry Type: Market 39320
SL: 39500
TP1 / TP2: 38636
################### Normal Size Position - Much Better Entry at A Series Fib with a Much Larger Reward:Risk 900 points of reward:200Points of Risk
US30 Dow Jones Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video, we delve into a prospective trading opportunity within the US30 Dow Jones index. Our analysis entails evaluating the prevailing trend, scrutinizing price movements, assessing market dynamics, and identifying a potential entry point under favorable conditions, as elaborated in the video. Incorporating robust risk management principles into your trading strategy is crucial. It's imperative to emphasize that this content is presented solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
US30 DJ30 DOWJONES ROBBERY PLANHI Traders,
NFP Trade master plan to Heist US30 Market. my dear Looters U can enter after the NFP data there is high chance to go down side, Our target is Green Zone if it goes bearish side, Bullish side our target is Red Zone that is High risk Caution Pullback area, If There is any Bad news it make our heist very sad and if the news is favorable for us then we can continue our looting from there with help of trailing stop.
My dear Robbers please book some partial money it will manage our risk. Be safe and be careful.. Make money and take money.
US30DAILY
Just had an expanding wedge and price is building more into the wedge. 38655, shows us further price movement to possibly the upside.
4H
38600 is a form of some support, look left and you will see the test / rejection and sensitivity around this price. The expanding wedges are just giving us signs that there's bearish pressure when they happen. So we are adding to our confluence.
1H
38555, bouncing here and rejection. This should not tell us that we are going up, it's just indication to stay watching.
15Min
Stay away
NB!!!!!!!!!
NFP FRIDAYS WE ONLY TRADE AFTER NFP TO AVOID DOING THE WRONG THINGS.