DOW JONES 13-year pattern that never failed eyes $48000.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the best bullish break-out signal exactly 1 year ago (December 13 2023, see chart below), as our buy entry at 36577 hit our 42900 long-term Target last October:
At that time we made a clear point why that rally 'shouldn't surprise you' and it is because of this pattern's consistency for so many years. This 1W time-frame chart shows the cyclical behavior of the index, which peaks (Sine Wave top), then pulls back and starts forming a Rising Wedge (Sine Wave bottom) and when it breaks above the Rising Wedge, is where it flashed the bullish break-out signal we got a year ago.
As you can see it then starts a gradual rise on the BB20 and completes the Cycle again (Sine Wave top) after roughly a +47% rally. The title mentions that this pattern 'never failed', practically it only broke during the COVID flash crash, which was a non-technical event than occurs once every 100 years. As you can see even the 1W MACD sequences between the cyclical patterns are identical.
As a result, our Target towards the Sine Wave peak is 48000. If this is achieved in Q2 2025, based on Dow's current Channel Up (dashed), then we expect the index to remain on those high levels but turn more neutral sideways towards the end of 2025 and then eventual start of the new Bear Phase.
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US30
US Index (US30) – Daily Time Frame AnalysisUS Index (US30) – Daily Time Frame Analysis
Overview:
Today, let’s analyze the US Index (US30) on the daily time frame. Over the past several days, spanning more than a week, the trend has been distinctly bearish.
Key Observation:
The price is now nearing a significant key level in the range of 43,200–43,300. This area could act as a strong support zone, offering a potential opportunity for a long trade.
Trade Idea:
Entry Zone: 43,200–43,300
Monitor this range closely.
Look for bullish confirmation signals, such as wick rejections, bullish engulfing candles, or other reversal patterns before entering a trade.
Potential Target:
If the setup aligns, the trade could aim for the previous week’s high.
Keep in mind this move could take up to a week to materialize, but the potential gain from this trade could be significant.
Important Reminders:
Wait for Confirmation: Ensure a clear rejection or reaction at the key level before executing the trade.
Focus on Risk Management: Safeguarding your capital is crucial. Avoid impulsive or revenge trading.
Be Patient: Allow the trade to develop at its own pace; rushing can lead to mistakes.
Trading is Reactive, Not Predictive: Respond to price action as it unfolds rather than trying to forecast the future.
US30 Will Go Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for US30.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 43,616.98.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 43,408.72 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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XAUUSD - Daily | BREAKOUT IncomingSimple Trading - Ascending Triangle
Gold is overall bullish so if the pattern breaks, it should break to the upside. Of course, if gold can not maintain bullish momentum, it may result in a further decline in the price.
This pattern may not break out until the end of Dec. maybe into Jan. with this in mind we are still about to take price action trades on the smaller time frames.
Levels to look out for:
BULLISH:
2673 - 4hr FVG low
2683 - 4hr FVG High
2700 - supply and demand
BEARISH:
2624 - 1hr Head and Shoulder Target
2610 - Daily FVG High
2590 - Daily FVG Midpoint
2575 - Daily FVG Low
2560 - Daily Double Bottom
US30 Short Idea based on monthly-minute breakdownAfter thorough breakdown i see US30 diverging in the weekly & hourly TF, after that I measured the daily-weekly moving average and concluded that it has finished the average pip movement before usual daily retracements. So after deciding it will be bearish I’m looking for a bullish retracement in the 1min-15 min TF to the 45100 area where I’ll be looking to place my SELLS. TP targets have been set from TP1-TP6 (Make sure to set to break even after TP1 hits if deciding to swing trade). Bulls usually control December so I did mark up the possible bullish scenarios from the 1st 4 TPs. Let’s see if US30 can FEED US !!
US30 Bearish To Bullish Play for the WeekAfter following US30 on the way down through a beautiful 1hr-4hr TL we might finally be getting to our final target 43,550. Will look for a slight move to the upside touching the sell limit which will then propel back down for another bearish move, after reaching 43,550 I expect sideways movement consolidating for a couple days/weeks hopefully giving us a clear view for a bullish set up in the process. I expect a Major move back up potentially creating new highs into 2025. 43,550 is the end of the daily average move and it will meet with a weekly trendline as it hits the weekly support zone. Let’s see if the streak on US30 continues.. May the markets be w us..!
P.s only way I would switch my bearish outlook is if we break through 44,150 following a break through 44,300 into full bullish territory
US30 /Bearish Momentum and Key Levels Ahead of FED Rate DecisionTechnical Analysis
The price has dropped about 700 points, as we mentioned previously, and remains under bearish momentum after breaking the bearish correction and trading below 43760.
As long as the price trades below 43760 and 43900, it is likely to drop further to touch 43350. However, it is also possible for the price to retest 43760 before continuing to drop.
On the other hand, the FED Rate Decision tomorrow will impact the indices. A rate decrease of 25 bps is expected, which could influence the bullish momentum depending on the market's reaction to the rate change.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 43580
Resistance Levels: 43765, 43900, 44070
Support Levels: 43350, 43210, 42900
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Momentum
Previous idea:
Bullish momentum to extend?Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 43,318.65
1st Support: 42,643.34
1st Resistance: 44,526.39
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GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Haven't had time to update recently as I've been extremely busy, but either way Gold has been paying us in the background!
We got that rejection from Wave 2 & a huge melt back down again towards the bottom of this 'Flat Correction' channel which I called for you all. Now waiting on Wave 3 to make its huge move down📉
US30 long for this weekAll timeframes point towards US30 going long.
Monthly:
November's candlestick engulfed October's candlestick.
Price has been on a severe uptrend and does not look like it will stop.
This month we have seen a minor retracement that indicates price is collecting orders before it continues going up.
Weekly:
We have seen a three pin pattern before price started retracing which indicates that price will continue to go up.
Currently, price is retracing in order to find a major spot for liquidity where it will collect buy orders.
The high liquidity region seems to be 43,500 since that is where a lot of buy orders were filled in the past.
Daily:
Price had a target of 45,600 which was not hit. This indicates that price is retracing to a level that it will collect orders.
On the daily, the region with the most buy orders are 43,300.
4 hour:
This is the best timeframe to tell where real liquidity lies.
As we can see, the most buy orders were filled at 43,400
HENCE, THE HYPOTHESIS FOR THE WEEK, IS TO WAIT FOR PRICE TO GO TO 43,400, WHERE WE WILL LOOK TO BUY
US30 H4 | Potential Bullish Bounce ?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 43,502.40, which is a pullback support close to the 78.6% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 43,502.40, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 42,720.14, which is a pullback support level.
High Risk Investment Warning
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US30 - Once A Castle, Always A Castle!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US30 has been bullish , trading within the rising channel in blue.
After rejecting the $45,000, has been in a correction phase and approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the zone marked in green is a strong structure.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the structure and lower trendline acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US30 approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
DOW JONES: Neutral 1D means buy opportunity.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.536, MACD = 330.150, ADX = 20.923) as it is on the bearish wave of the 4H Channel Up, towards the 4H MA200, which on November 19th priced the last HL. The 4H RSI got oversold and rebounded today above its MA period, which twice before has been a buy signal. We are going long here, aiming at the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 45,400).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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$USIRYY -U.S CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
(November/2024)
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
"US Inflation Rate Rises to 2.7%, Matching Expectations "
-The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 2.7% in November,
from 2.6% in October and matching markets expectations pushed up by food cost.
On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.3%, the most since April, slightly above October's 0.2%, driven mostly by higher prices of shelter.
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold overall is still holding bearish. I originally expected a ‘Flat Correction’ on the lower bound of the range, but price is now creating that same correction, on the upper bound of the range. Market analysis is still valid & I’m still holding my sell position’s open.
Market structure would be invalidated if price broke ABOVE previous Wave 5 high.
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold overall is still holding bearish. I originally expected a ‘Flat Correction’ on the lower bound of the range, but price is now creating that same correction, on the upper bound of the range. Market analysis is still valid & I’m still holding my sell position’s open.
Market structure would be invalidated if price broke ABOVE previous Wave 5 high.