US30 neutral as of now (but price is showing bearish signs)This stock has been very bullish for the past year but we are finally seeing a retracement of price.
This is evident in all timeframe.
3 month and monthly timeframe:
Price broke all time highs at 37,000 with a lot of momentum.
Price collected more bullish orders at 37,250 where we saw another up raw of price.
Price made a very solid liquidity spot at 41,750, where price stayed above for the past 4 months before this level got decimated in the last week.
The next noteworthy level on the 3 month and monthly timeframe is 40,000.
This is where I believe price is headed.
Weekly
We see that price took a lot of sell orders at 44,000 and broke the 41,750 handle.
The next noteworthy liquidity region of substance is 40,000 which aligns with the 3M and monthly as well
Moreover, this week candle has a high chance of closing with a three pin pattern, which shows me that price is going to go lower.
The fib targets for the weekly were hit yesterday, showing me that price, might retrace upwards a bit before it collects more sell orders.
Daily
Since, there is a high probability of price going lower on the weekly timeframe, all the daily timeframe does is confirm the regions where we might see sellers getting in the market.
Moreover, since the weekly fib targets were hit yesterday, that means that price is due for a bullish move before it goes lower.
The fib targets also align with a major liquidity zone on the daily and 4 hour region at 40,750.
The thesis on the daily timeframe informs me that price might retrace to 41,500, at which I will look to sell the pair even lower.
4 hour
Now that we know that price is due for a pull upwards before price goes lower, the 4 hour timeframe, for me, is the best timeframe to tell me where the best liquidity regions are at.
The ones that stand out to me are at 41,750 and at 41,300.
If a buy setup forms as price is headed to those two regions, I will definitely buy the pair.
But as of now, I am sitting on my hands waiting to see what price has in store.
Us30neutral
US30 Neutral today but expecting price to head upwards longtermI believe that there is no clear cut setup for US30 at the moment. A daily closure would give the best signal for what it is going to happen.
However, I believe that price will go upwards long term.
Here is why;
- Price broke below 40,000 which is a massive weekly region with a lot of bearish momentum.
- Price has not retested 40,000 and I believe we will see a retest in the near future.
- Price went as low as 38,500 where we can see that is the region where most of the bullish orders were filled. 39,000 is also a notable region where orders were filled.
- As of this morning, price is trapped between 39,100 and 38,500. Until I get a full daily closure above 39,100 then I will know whether to buy or sit on my hands.
My thesis as of now is that there is no clear bias to jump on today and that it is best for me to sit on my hands as I wait for price to make a comprehensive decision. I will update if there are any changes during the day.
USD30USD 1D 120% Fibonacci Retracement We seen the market make a retracement last week to our 120% fib level. What does this mean? Nothing really because we didn't take any short positions. All this mean is that we retraced to 120% which is above our daily resistance zone (25882).
If we take a look at our weekly chart our weekly midrange support (25000) has held firm causing the price to shoot back up to monthly resistance (26000). Looking at this last week bullish price move engulfed 3 weeks of bearish price action.
As far as right now on neutral on this pair. Price right on retested our monthly resistance (26000) which can at this point hold firm and on our daily timeframe price dives down below daily resistance (25882). If this were to happen then we are back into the H4 and daily trend.
If daily resistance (25882) break we are expecting price to reach 27000 possible 28000.
Dow Jones (US30) AnalysisThe chart pretty much explains it all. I've slid over the Fib Retracement so that you can see the numbers better (FIB drawn from 24DEC18 candle to current candle). I believe we will retrace to the 0.236 Fib level, which is 25162 or close to it. I also believe it will turn around at the R1 Pivot Point. This being said, my stance on the Dow will be neutral i.e. Range-Bound (down and up in a sideways channel). Surprised to see my stance is not "short"? Here is why: Right now, it can go either way. We are only in February, and we have a long way to go until the end of the year. We are only roughly 600 points from record, all time highs. In the short term, I believe we will stay range-bound, with emphasis going to the Short direction. The Fed's decision to slow/halt interest rate hikes have given us a boost. We have also gotten a boost on news of a China trade deal. Any change in these decisions can send the market wildly into a downward spiral (possibly a crash?). The VIX is currently at around 13, so the market volatility has calmed down drastically from its recent highs in the mid 20's. I also believe this will be a factor in the market staying range-bound due to low volatility. Let me know what you guys think, and what trades you are doing with the Dow! Hope this helps.
Happy Trading,
Zak