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US30/USD Imminent Shorts down towards 36600.0My bias for this weeks forecast is for US30 to see a temporary bearish move to the downside. As price has now slowed down, it shows that bullish pressure has now become exhausted. To add, we can see there was a clean 4hr supply which has triggered this initial bearish move. Having observed the expected retracement and correction back up to 37500.0, I now anticipate a price decline in my POI. This expectation is based on the objective to fill in imbalances below and sweep liquidity, including the previously established equal lows. Given the current holiday season, I also anticipate price movements to be slow and choppy. Confluences for US30 sells are as follows: - Tapped into a 4hr supply zone that has caused CHOCH to the down side. - Wyckoff distribution has been formed and validated via a CHOCH on the 15min. - Imbalance left below as well as liquidity to target such as the relative equal lows. - No reversal magnets above my POI which makes my setup more favourable for sells. - In order for price to keep going up it must come down to tap into some sort of demand level. - Rejection candle within our zone on the higher time frame reinforces that bullish pressure has now become exhausted. P.S. Even though my confluences are very strong for sells at the moment, we can't disregard a possible rally which breaks this 4hr supply zone. We have to remember that price overall is still bullish so we have to be cautious when trying to enter a counter trend trade like this. If you found this post insightful, be sure to drop a like and comment below your thoughts!!!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Hassan_fx
1
US30USD Longs from 36600.0 back upThis week's analysis for US30 is distinctly bullish, given its aggressive surge past the all-time highs (ATHs). I believe there's further upside potential, providing traders with opportunities to explore nearby long positions for potential gains. In the provided image, I've identified three potential demand zones where I'll be looking for an accumulation. Among the identified zones, the first is the 4-hour demand zone, situated closest to the current price. To maximise the potential for a positive bullish response, I am particularly inclined towards the areas surrounding the 11-hour or 8-hour demand zones at the bottom, deeming them as the most optimal zones. Confluences for US30 Buys are as follows : - Overall market trend on higher time frame as well as lower time Frame remains very bullish. - There are no additional supply zones above that the price can respond to, only demand zones where we can anticipate another upward rally. - So much liquidity to the downside that price has left including imbalances, asian lows, and trend lines. - Three clear demand zones have been established in close proximity to the current price, and it is highly probable that the price will exhibit a reaction from these zones. - Candle sticks on HTF are still very bullish carrying a lot of strong momentum which indicates buying pressure is still not yet exhausted. P.S. Despite the robust bullish performance of US30, marked by its attainment of all-time highs (ATHs), it wouldn't be unexpected for the price to initiate a bearish trend. This expectation is rooted in the substantial liquidity and imbalances that remain below. However, considering the absence of a significant CHOCH to the downside, I maintain a strong bullish stance on the market at present.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Hassan_fx
1
US30/USD Shorts from 36600.0 back down.Last week's price action exhibited significant ranging, mainly influenced by the proximity to all-time highs (ATHs). My current perspective is that US30 is actively generating liquidity, setting the stage for a bearish reaction once the daily supply is mitigated. This particular supply level holds substantial importance as it is the last on the chart, existing on a higher time frame and having broken structure to the downside. I anticipate a scenario where the price sweeps the top of the consolidation, touches my Point of Interest (POI), and subsequently descends towards the lower bounds of the consolidation and potentially even lower. Given the post-Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) situation, I foresee a breakout from this range, initiating a trend and providing opportunities for traders like us to capitalize on. My strategy involves patiently waiting for a Wyckoff distribution to take shape in this zone, allowing us to secure a precise entry point for our bearish positions. Confluences for US30 Sells are as follows: - Price is near daily supply which has caused a BOS to the downside on the higher timeframe. - There lots of liquidity lying below in the form of EQLs, Asia Lows, and trendline liquidity. - The bottom part of the consolidation also holds lots of liquidity so we can target as T.P levels - Wyckoff distribution is pending and still hasn't been formed yet on lower time frame. - NFP event has also passed so now we could possibly see the real moves play out. - Price has been very bullish recently and now bullish pressure is getting exhausted. - This consolidation is a great sign that price might be looking to reverse soon. P.S. I acknowledge the possibility of the price breaking the bottom first and interacting with a demand zone, triggering a bullish rally that could eventually exhaust the supply. It highlights the importance of adaptability. I'm closely monitoring multiple potential scenarios and adjusting my approach based on the direction the price may take. This approach enables us to identify more frequent opportunities in the market.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Hassan_fx
US30 Longs from 35100.0 up towards 35600.0My bias for US30 is bullish, hence why we are looking forward to the nearest buy opportunity which will be the 14hr demand below. This zone has caused a BOS to the upside meaning once a correction back down is complete, it will hopefully mitigate our POI where we will be able to enter buy positions. But we must wait for our lower time frame confirmations like Wyckoff. There's a long wick that hasn't got filled in which I see as liquidity hence why I haven't got any near by supply zones however, we can catch buys up to that (7hr supply) so we can eventually sell back down. Nevertheless, price could go lower as price has been very impulsive and it has left quite a few imbalances below. So we could see a mitigation of a cheaper zone like the 10hr. Confluences for US30 Buys are as follows - Overall Market trend (short term and long term) is both bullish, matching my bias. - For price to keep going higher it must create a pull back in order to create a new leg. - Price has CHOCH and caused several BOS to the upside confirming the trend. - Liquidity has been swept already so there's enough momentum for price to push upwards. - Price left a 14hr demand at a psychological level of 1990 that caused an impulsive move up. - Pending Wyckoff accumulation to play out as price is not near my POI as of now. P.S. I don't personally see a current near by supply to take sells from so I would rather wait for price to "show me its hands" and take it from there. In addition to this, Price is between a lot of liquidity right now and we might just see a consolidation but, we have to always remain adaptive hence why we have spoken about both scenarios that could play out.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Hassan_fx
1
US30/USD Shorts down towards 34400.0 (possibly lower)From my US30 analysis we are currently approaching a key level of supply, even though we are very bullish the market requires a pull back in order to mitigate the inefficiencies left below, Hence why I am temporarily bearish this week. I see price reacting from the daily supply and dropping towards 34400.0 or even lower to more discounted zones in order for price to continue in its bullish trend upwards. As of current price I would be waiting for a distribution to play out on the lower time frame and a clean CHOCH because we will be counter trend trading back down. As of my designated target, there is lots of imbalances as well as liquidity in the form of asian lows. Confluences for US30 Shorts are as follows: - Price about to tap into a daily supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside. - Current price has swept lots of liquidity (EQHs) and has taken out swing highs just below. - Price is premium so it's ideal to sell from this daily supply zone that we are approaching. - Lots of liquidity to the downside as well as imbalances that needs to get taken. - Price has been moving bullish and requires a pull back if price wants to continue in uptrend. - Price is slowly distributing before the mitigation of zone but pending a clean CHOCH. P.S. we are at the top of this internal structure that has caused a huge break of structure to the downside in which price is more probable to react from. As we have entered a premium POI I would be looking at imminent sells soon as possible once my confluences are met.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Hassan_fx
US30/USD Shorts from 34600.0 down towards 33800.0My bias for US30 currently is for a bit more upside in order to mitigate the 22hr supply zone or the 19hr, both are apart of a key weekly supply level. From this we will expect a sweep of the asian high as well as a consolidation before entering to show that price is slowing down and buys have now become exhausted. We will then wait for a wyckoff distribution and a CHOCH on the lower time frame before we execute our sell positions. As price has been very impulsively bullish I am expecting a retracement for sure hence my bias. My confluences for US30 shorts are as follows: - Price approaching key weekly supply level that caused a CHOCH to the downside. - There's magnets below our POI that need to be taken in the form a liquidity sweep. - There a lot of imbalances below as well as deeper demand levels for price to mitigate. - Price has been moving very bullish with minimal pull backs so price needs to come down. - For price to continue in bullish trend it needs to react off a stronger level of demand. - 22hr supply has also swept liquidity, good sign that the zone will hold. P.S. I am overall bullish however, as we are approaching a key supply I can see a short term sells playing out in order to fill the imbalances below and mitigate a deeper level of demand. This makes sense because us as traders, we ideally want to buy from a discounted price. As of this week we do have CPI coming on Tuesday, I would personally wait after just to see how price reacts from this major news event then make my move. Trade safe and hope you guys have a good week ahead!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Hassan_fx
2
US30/USD Shorts to 32600.0 US30 has recently broken structure to the downside on the higher time frame indicating it wants to continue in its bearish trend however, I believe it will not hold for too long as the over all market is bullish. In terms of current price action I'm expecting for price to continue going down a bit towards the 32600.0 mark. Scenario (A) is Selling from the current price as it has tapped in a 22hr supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside. Now price has retraced back into it, wyckoff distribution has played out for us to take sells from the supply we are in. Once we get to the target we can wait for price to show us its hands to decide if we can buy back up to another supply or not. Scenario (B) would be waiting for price to push higher and take out our current supply zone and eventually tap into the 4hr above where better premium prices are. Not only did it cause a change of character but it also has imbalances below it which is a good sign of that zone being respected. Then we will wait for our lower time frame confirmation in the form of a re distribution and an another CHOCH to sell down towards our designated target of 32600.0 My confluences for US30 shorts are as follows: - The market has broken structure to the downside on the higher timeframe. - Price has tapped into a good supply zone (22hr) that has also caused a BOS. - Wyckoff distribution has taken place and has changed character leaving a good price to sell from. - There's loads of liquidity to the downside we can target in the form of equal lows, trendline and imbalances. - The dollar is currently bullish and has been very strong recently so I am expecting this pair to drop more to the downside. P.S. this is just a short term idea for US30's current market conditions however we have to be cautious when trading this week as there is FOMC on Wednesday and NFP on Friday so trade safe and have a wonderful week ahead!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Hassan_fx
1