Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?Dow Jones (US30) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 43,330.76
1st Support: 41,777.16
1st Resistance: 44,327.75
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
US WALL ST 30
Dow Jones 30-Min Short: Bearish Momentum Building Toward 42kThe Dow Jones has triggered my short position following a significant volume spike, currently trading below the key EMA levels. The technical setup suggests a bearish continuation toward the 42k price zone. This aligns with a short-term correction in equities after December marked the Dow’s worst monthly performance in over two years.
Fundamentals:
• Major indexes continue to struggle, with the Dow and S&P 500 facing extended losing streaks.
• Market sentiment remains cautious as investors digest recent corporate earnings, geopolitical risks, and upcoming key economic data such as ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• Despite a strong year-end rally, December losses reflect broader market uncertainty, further pressuring the Dow.
Technicals:
• Price remains below both the 50 and 200 EMAs, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volume analysis highlights increased selling pressure, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Immediate support at 42,000 aligns with key demand zones and historical price reactions.
With these conditions in play, I’ll manage risk carefully, monitor for any major shifts, and adjust my position accordingly. Pay yourself and trade responsibly!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
US30 LongThis analysis focuses on the interplay of weekly and intraday confluences, which collectively point towards a potential bullish scenario. A detailed breakdown of the price movements and key levels is provided to support the thesis.
1. Weekly Confluences
Unmet Target: The price has yet to reach its anticipated target of 45,300, indicating unfulfilled market objectives.
Order Collection Observation: A significant retracement suggests an attempt to collect orders within a specific price region.
The first notable level was 43,500, corresponding to a prior body closure. Price broke through this level and moved downward.
The second key region, 42,100, showed a rejection pattern characterized by a three-pin formation.
Pattern Analysis: An "M" pattern is apparent, signaling that the price may retest its neckline at 43,500.
2. Four-Hour Timeframe Insights
Rejection and Momentum: The price rejected the 42,100 weekly level with strong bullish momentum, forming a bullish setup with a target of 42,600.
Order Collection Confirmation : Despite the bullish target not being achieved, the retracement implies another round of order collection, this time within the 42,328 daily level.
Conclusion and Thesis:
The evidence points to a bullish outlook. While the price is gathering momentum and confirming its intentions, I will wait for clear intraday confirmations before entering the market. Patience at this stage will ensure alignment with the larger trend and reduce exposure to potential false moves.
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Goal 🎯: 44,200.00
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US30 Mid Week Consideration 👀👉 The markets could move in any direction today. Over the past three months, since the Bank of Japan rate hike, we’ve been witnessing aggressive liquidity runs and significant, uneven reversals, particularly on Wednesdays. This midweek phenomenon has caught many traders off guard, making it challenging to adapt. It appears to reflect adjustments in the market algorithms targeting liquidity.
For this reason, I’m sitting out of the New York session today. It’s worth emphasizing that staying out of the market can be just as valuable as posting or executing a trade idea. If you have time, I encourage you to review past charts and observe this recurring Wednesday or midweek reversal phenomenon.
Stay vigilant and know when to step aside. Reducing the frequency of trades is as important as placing them. Focus on quality setups and recognize when the best move is no move at all. While this isn’t financial advice, it’s a practical observation that could prove useful.
Trade smart, and let patience guide you.
US30 Short Setup: Riding the Retrace to Key Support Levels!Since the elections, traditional markets have been climbing to new highs, showcasing strong bullish momentum. However, I’m now eyeing a short opportunity on the Dow Jones (US30) as it retraces to key support zones around 44,400–44,500. This area appears to be a strong support zone, and my plan is to capitalize on the retracement for a potential long setup near the 44,000 price range.
Currently, US30 is trading below the FibCloud, suggesting room for a retrace to the 44,800 level before continuing lower. My strategy here is to profit from the retracement, then re-evaluate for a long trade based on market conditions near the support levels.
Key Levels:
• Support Zone: 44,300–44,500
• Resistance Zone: 44,800
• Take Profit: 44,440
• Stop Loss: Above 45,100
Market Outlook:
With tomorrow being a U.S. bank holiday, volume may vary significantly. I’ll closely monitor price action and market reactions for further confirmation. This trade aligns with the broader market behavior while taking advantage of shorter-term retracements.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Several factors suggest a potential downturn for the Dow Jones ISeveral factors suggest a potential downturn for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) in the near term:
Technical Indicators:
• Overbought Conditions: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that US30 is approaching overbought levels, which often precedes a price correction.
• Bearish Divergence: A rising wedge pattern coupled with bearish divergence signals a possible downward movement.
Economic Data:
• Manufacturing Slowdown: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November but remains below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector.
• GDP Growth Concerns: Recent data shows the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in two years, with a 1.6% increase in GDP for the first quarter of 2024, missing forecasts.
Federal Reserve Policies:
• Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts: Federal Reserve officials have signaled a cautious approach to future interest rate cuts amid strong economic performance and cooling inflation, which may impact investor sentiment.
Market Sentiment:
• Strengthening U.S. Dollar: A rising U.S. dollar could pose challenges for stock-market bulls, potentially hindering further equity-market gains.
• Technical Caution: Analysts warn of potential market corrections, with models indicating possible downturns during the holiday week.
Considering these factors, there is a potential for US30 to experience a decline in the near future. However, market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s advisable to monitor real-time data and news updates for the most accurate information.
US30 Market Analysis
1. Technical Perspective:
• The chart shows a strong upward breakout from a falling wedge pattern, a traditionally bullish setup.
• After the breakout, price action seems to be consolidating near a resistance zone (marked in red).
• Support near 44,400 appears to have held firm previously, creating a higher low, which aligns with bullish momentum.
2. Stochastic Oscillators:
• The Stochastic Divergence and Stochastic indicators at the bottom suggest a recent overbought condition but are not yet sharply reversing, indicating consolidation rather than a full-fledged bearish reversal.
• If the stochastic moves upward from its midline, it could signal continued bullish momentum.
3. Key Levels:
• Resistance: The red box indicates a resistance zone near 45,000. A breakout above this level could trigger further upside movement.
• Support: Immediate support lies around 44,400. If this level holds, the market could continue upward.
4. Volume and Sentiment:
• While volume isn’t visible in the chart, breakouts with sustained buying pressure tend to confirm bullish trends.
• Broader market sentiment should also be considered; a positive catalyst (e.g., economic data or easing bond yields) could help US30 push higher.
Likely Scenario:
If support near 44,400 holds and there are no external bearish catalysts, the Dow (US30) could push higher toward or beyond the 45,000 resistance level. However, failure to break resistance may result in a short-term pullback to test lower support levels.
Dow Jones Index (US30): Bullish Trend Continues
Dow Jones Index updated the all-time high yesterday.
The resistance area based on a previous high turns into support now.
We can expect a bullish trend continuation at least to 45000 - the next psychological resistance.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Potentially short set-up US30As you can see in the picture, on 12th November I shared my short setup on US30 and it hit my TP. Now after a small bounce, if i see a rejection sign at the level I'm watching, I'm planning to open another short position to target lower levels, as shown on the chart. Why? Because we've already seen 1.2.3.4.5 Elliot wave impulse on the daily and I'm expecting an ABC correction to follow, I'm waiting now. If it go higher than where I want to see a rejection this trade is invalide then for me. When I go In I will let it know.
Short trade us30 from 12 novembre (PATIENCE IS KEY)Yesterday, I closed my trade around 43,300 as I believed the price was nearing a potential reversal. However as we can see now, the market has smashed straight through to my original take-profit (TP) zone.
Here the lesson: It's crucial to always stick to your trading plan unless you have 100% confirmation that the market is reversing. Premature exits, like mine, might secure some profit, but they can leave substantial gains on the table. In this case, holding on with just a little more PATIENCE would have brought the trade to full potential.
Why PATIENCE matters:
1. Avoid emotional decissions: reacting too early can cost you. Let the market prove its intentions before deviating from your plan.
2. Maximize profitabillity: let your TP be hit unless clear signs indicate a reversal.
3. Discipline equals succes: Sticking to your strategy, even during uncertainty, builds consistency over time.
I still hold my XAGUSD (silver) , EURUSD, DOGECOIN and ofcourse XAUUSD(Gold) trade also. I will let u know.
DOW JONES - Idea for a long position !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on DOW JONES.
Technical analysis: Here we have the same scenario as on S&P500, we are bullish, so I expect a long position if price fills the imbalance lower and then rejects from trendline.
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US30 Trendline Breakout AnalysisRecently, US30 (the Dow Jones Industrial Average) broke through a key resistance trendline, signaling a potential shift in market momentum. Here’s why we think this breakout is significant and why the index may continue to rise:
Positive Economic Indicators: Recent economic data has shown resilience, with strong corporate earnings reports and steady employment numbers, reducing fears of an imminent recession. These factors boost investor confidence, attracting buying pressure and supporting upward price movement.
Lower Interest Rate Concerns: With inflation showing signs of cooling, the Federal Reserve may ease on aggressive rate hikes, which typically weigh on equities. The market often rallies when the outlook on interest rates is more favorable, as it lowers borrowing costs and encourages investment in riskier assets like equities.
Technical Breakout Confirmation: The recent breach of the resistance trendline was supported by high trading volume, which often validates the strength of a breakout. Additionally, other technical indicators, such as moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), show bullish momentum, suggesting that the breakout is not a false signal.
Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite: Investors appear to be shifting toward a "risk-on" mode, with increased demand for growth-oriented and blue-chip stocks in the US market. This shift in sentiment often leads to further gains in major indices like the US30, especially as it represents stable, high-performing companies.
Seasonal Trends and Year-End Rally Potential: Historically, the end of the year often brings about a “Santa Claus rally” in equity markets, where stock prices trend upward due to favorable market sentiment and portfolio adjustments. This seasonal pattern may further support the US30’s upward trajectory as we approach the year-end.
US30USD Will Fall! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for US30USD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 42,066.9.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 41,539.1 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 41,894.89
1st Support: 41,497.27
1st Resistance: 42,478.07
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DOW JONES - Short from bearish OB !! Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on DOW JONES.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. My point of interest is imbalance filled + rejection from OB.
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