Mortgage rates are looking as if they are about to get another drop, on dally chart. Daily not seen here. Please see profile for more information. The monthly chart looks like a Head & Shoulder pattern. Interesting. Could we be seeing a huge drop in #interestrates soon? Must keep an👀on this!
Short term bonds are still trading below the bank fiasco crisis. 1 & 2YR Yields. However....... Long term #yield is higher than it was during the bank fiasco. 10 & 30 YR #Yield. Normalization of the curve is still a ways off.
before you read any further, read my post from april: --- it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed. back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y. as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going...
HAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉 US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE. This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of. Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME 1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to...
The 10 year & 30 Yr #yield are at support levels. Looking at Daily charts: The longer term, 30Yr, looks better than TVC:TNX (10Yr) Looking at Weekly charts: The 10Yr support level looks strongest @ 3.3%. All sorts of support levels and trendlines were broken recently. The 30 Yr trendline is certainly broken & Strong Support is found here.
Caught in the twin grip of elevated US yields and a stronger USD, Gold may be on the defensive over the near term unless geopolitical risks still escalate. Escalating geopolitical and trade risks are playing an increasingly supportive role in Gold prices, engineering rallies that are likely to stay high in 2024. Gold Price Clinging to Highs Under $2'000. The...
THOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT. Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends? Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape. Let's see how they close. 30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend. #mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
GOOD MORNING! Didn't have time to post yesterday. Busy the entire day until I got home @ 9pm!\ 10 Yr #yield topped the day the original tweet was posted. 30 Yr yield topped the following day! #stocks #bonds TVC:TNX (See profile for more info)
Every 40+ investor and a pair of eye glasses is pounding the long TLT! call options TLT!. You sure about that? you sure you can handle 4-5 years of a complete dead TLT? Federal Reserve seems to be only interested in bailing out banks collateral directly instead of starting YCC so the TLT traders "bond market is the safest in the world" has just completely...
GOOD MORNING! #interestrates look like they want to slow down a bit, short term top. We see the 10Y & 30Y pulling back a bit... But this is better seen intraday. We'll see how that unfolds... IF IT DOES, it could cause a sharp rise in #Stocks. Coincidentally, DJ:DJI @ support & TVC:NDQ is near a major support. TVC:TNX AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:QQQ
Good Afternoon! Long Term #interestrates are PUMPING today!!! The 10 & 30 Yr have been struggling in this area. They are currently forming a negative divergence. We'll see how that goes. 3Month - 1Yr haven't moved much. 2Year #yield is also moving. This is "good"! That means that the normalization of yield curve is not happening yet. #stocks #gold #silver
Japanese Currency Strength is back to 1987 levels Japan is the main source of YCC for the USA buying down bond Yields If USA raises rates any more Japan will be in free fall collapse (hyperinflation) They need to pause at worst start reducing rates. My guess? Money printer is coming back and will come back fast to save the Yen, this is not just a "Asian...
If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it! In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in...
Bill Hackman is right, yields are going higher! There have been discussions as to where the yield is going from here. We believe they are going higher based on the the current re-accumulation schematic. This chart will break out and it's not a bull trap. We could see 5.5%-6.5% rates. NOT-FINANCIAL-ADVICE
To obtain this information, we need to look at four things: -Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy. -US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor...
hello, here is one more layer of confluence, to back up my spx case. --- to the untrained eye, this looks like total, nonsensical chop, but to a space explorer, it can easily be viewed as a 3-3-3. what is a 3-3-3? glad you ask anon: a 3-3-3, is a very corrective structure, designed to kill time mostly- labeled w-x-y. wxy = double zig-zag these channel...
good eve' --- decided to update my primary today, to further align with the current states of the market. my upside target remains the same, at 5.9%--6% into 2024, but i think we go slightly lower locally, into june before it pops. summer time is historically quite bullish in the market, so a slight pause on rates to align with seasonality makes sense. thanks...
gm, called the top on the us10y last year as well. (view post at the bottom of this thread). swinging by to actually adjust my public bias, after a few recent discoveries. --- jerome powell explicitly mentioned in a few of the recent talks that the fed is going to raise the interest rates above 5%, and keep them there for some time. what this tells me, is...