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US30Y

Visualizing Yield InversionWhen investors have a poor outlook for the economy, what do they do? They buy the longest term debt they can because it's one of the ways to price in the uncertainty of "right now" into the long term. Therefore, rational actors would do something like this: Buy 30 year treasuries. Buying ensues, yield goes down, price goes up. Eventually 20 year yield becomes greater than 30, as described in purple. Right now for example, you'd get about 3% more yield buying the 20 year VERSUS the 30 year (note: relative yield, not nominal yield), giving us a purple line of 0.968. The teal line (1.0) is where the relative yields are inverted if the price is below this line. Short term debt pays more than long term debt under this line, which is usually not the case and signals that things are awry. Now simply repeat this cycle until the rational short term outlook is priced into all irrationally priced long term treasuries. Prices are too low, therefore yields are too high, and rational actors begin buying them. Prices go up, yields go down. Next up, we have 20Y/10Y (red) at 1.235, which is intriguingly lagging behind the shorter term inversions of 10Y/5Y and 5Y/2Y. If anyone knows why, I would be interested to know! I'm not exactly an expert on debt. Eventually this cycle repeats until the ratio of short term yields are all very close to long term yields. These conditions always precede a recession, which, by the way, is NOT a well defined term. A recession simply describes "a general decline in economic activity". Not very scientific, is it? Economists utilize a wide range of data to attempt to foresee a recession, yet the outcome is inevitable and uncontrollable. As history shows, any attempt to control the economy and avoid recession (1930s, 1970s) often make things much worse than had policy makers simply let the storm pass initially. I like to use ratios of yields. Some people subtract the yield of one from the other, which is fine too. I think a ratioized signal is much more pure as ratios rule the world around us. Not only that, given that we're monitoring multiple relative yields, we can get a good overall picture of the current landscape. Unfortunately there's not much history for the longer term instruments, though as I believe the 30 year has been around for atleast 50 years but only has a few years of TradingView data. Hopefully the illustrations on this chart along with relative yields help you visualize some of what's happening. I keep this chart of relative yields up ALL the time in a tab! If you have any feedback or comments, I would appreciate it. Good luck and hedge your bets! Quick note: In March 2020 not only did the FED setup new centralized repo facilities directly (reverse repo, unprecedented, it's ILLEGAL by the way) and at the same time, engaged in "QE Infinity". In essence there's more avenues at which they are "forced" to buy things that nobody wants. Albeit, they buy it at about market price, assume that's the right price and that they are somehow protecting the economy by pricing in bankruptcy in one asset class and spreading it to the rest of the economy. Belligerent and thoughtless, what more could you want? At the same time, they've sucked a lot of excess cash out of the system once again by offering banks an interest rate of 0.05% for their cash in exchange for some FED junk assets. So suddenly banks are bagholding assets nobody wanted, in order to get interest on their cash, genius huh? OH yeah, and banks are SHORTING those assets on the open market! Effectively making the cash tend towards zero value (the real contract value of those assets which were originally exchanged). Next time something goes wrong, they will unload this ~1.5T diaper of dollars directly into our faces, probably sooner than later, causing more inflation.
TVC:US05Y
by fringe_chartist
DOW JONES LONGS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on DOW JONES on a mid-long term perspective as price failed to make another leg lower, the price takes out weekly lows aka sell side liquidity and then quickl reverses with a bullish candlestick h4 closure. Another conflunce in this area is that we have a bullish orderblock on h4 a strong are of demand for the price + the institutional figure 34.000. 📉 We are in a RISK OFF market sentiment today as Asian/European sessions opened bullish + green in crypto What do you think ? Where DOW JONES goes ?
ULong
by AnonimFXRO
1
📚#e⏭️06 : Ultra Bond Futures Are Super Boring🥱💤Don't Click💡💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money Yes💡 Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role : To Correctly Price The Value Of Future Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably We Win The Game We Have Kept The Flame🔥 We Have Served A Most Important Mission We Fulfill A Founders Vision d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Regardless Of Trade Size Only Pay Spread Fee As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Quarterly Rollover Spread Only Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader In Time On Time Every Time Same As Any Business 📔 Rules Of The Rodeo Trend Is Dearest Life-Long Friend Bond Bull Market 40 Years Strong So We Will Mostly Trade Long Positions Actively Managed Entry Orders Executed At The Market Trading 0.01 Unit At A Time ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Starblazers 🌠 Dreamscapers 🧙🏼‍♂️ Rebellion 🧗🏻‍♀️ Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery Utilising The Instruments Symbolising Our Servitude Slaves Become Masters Masters Serve Slaves Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 US 30 Year Yields📊 CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y 📚#e04 : 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
33
📚🎬💎#e08 : An Ultra Bond Future💍Married To The⛪💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course Money But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money The Cost Of Money Cost Of Money Yes💡 Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role : To Correctly Price The Value Of Future Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably We Win The Game We Have Kept The Flame🔥 We Have Served A Most Important Mission We Fulfill A Founders Vision💜 d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Regardless Of Trade Size Only Pay Spread Fee As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Quarterly Rollover Spread Only Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader In Time On Time Every Time Same As Any Business Ventured C4L 📔 Rules Of The Rodeo Trend Is Dearest Life-Long Friend Bond Bull Market 40 Years Strong So We Will Mostly Trade Long Positions Actively Managed Entry Orders Executed At The Market Trading 0.01 Unit At A Time Slow Drip💧 ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Keep Your Bond⚔️ Watch Your Loyalty⌚ Buy Freedom To🔥 0.96 % x Cost ♋ Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 ☔ 📚#e07🩸GG : 📚#e⏭️06 : 📚#e04 : 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 : CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y Pluto 🛰️ Hndrxx 👩🏻‍🎤
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
13
📚#e04 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education🎓 Series Continuation Prior Episodes Found In The Content Below ❔ What Are Bonds Bonds Are The Foundation Of A Debt Based Monetary System Bonds Define The Cost Of Money Over Time Put Simply Bonds Are Future Dollars Read That Again🔂 US Treasury Bonds Are Future US Dollars Deliverable At A Specified Time In The Future I.e 30 Years Henceforth By Purchasing A US Treasury Bond You Enter Into A Legal Contract With The Treasury Wherein You Will Receive The Principle Or "Face Value" Of The Bond Plus The Rate Of Interest Specified At The Time Of Purchase ❔ A Traders Role To Make Money I Hear You Say Well Yes Of Course But What Exactly As Bond Traders Are We Getting Paid For ? To Provide A Service Our Collective Actions Expressed Through The Trading Of Bond Instruments Determine The Cost Of Money Yes This Is True Bet You Didn't Know That Regardless Of Your Trading Size We Are All Interacting With The Free Market Our Role Is To Correctly Price The Cost Of Money When We Trade Bonds Profitably Our Roles Are Fulfilled ❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds Low Operation Costs Only Pay Spread Fee Regardless Of Trade Size As Futures Contracts Zero Overnight Cost To Carry Operation Costs Will Kill A Trader Over Time Same As Any Business d-MR96nBa nvrBrkagn ℹ️ CME Group Official Ultra Bond Trader Site www.cmegroup.com Starblazers 🌠 Dreamscapers 🧙🏼‍♂️ Rebellion 🧗🏻‍♀️ Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery Utilising The Instruments Symbolising Our Servitude Slaves Will Topple Masters Behold.. The Ultra Bond Future 🗽 US 30 Year Yields📊 📚#e03 : 📚#e02 : 📚#e01 : CBOT:UB1! TVC:US30Y
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
42
Bitcoin, Treasuries, USD Retesting, All Telling Same StoryWhatever your opinion of these assets, they're all behaving in a fairly similar fashion, and they all have been behaving somewhat similarly over the last 3 years. No surprise, bitcoin and foreign currencies ten to outperform when financial conditions are loose and loosening. The vice versa is likely true as financial conditions tighten. Interestingly, if you pull up the charts on an individual basis, they all are retesting flags on a technical level. That doesn't mean they won't break back up and rally, but all three showing the same sign seems to add more weight behind likelihood that markets are in for a break upward in real rates and reduced liquidity / financial conditions.
TVC:US30Y
by GTStockmaster
US 30 YEARS - W1 - CLOUDS BROKEN !!!Last week price action triggered, as for the US 10 years, a long black candle which in this case also broke the weekly bottom clouds support level @ 1.85. The US 30 years is currently on an ongoing downtrend channel, very close to the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 1.6130 (0.71-2.5160); RSI below 50 @ 34.04. Watch closely price ongoing price action and monitor closely the Lagging line which for the time being, after having successively broken the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen is still above the clouds !!! A failure, for the Lagging line to close on the next weekly closing basis above the clouds would add further pressure to the downside in putting the focus for lower levels towards the next significant support area around 1.40% which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. CONCLUSION : As for the US 10 years, watch and monitor closely price action on a daily and intraday basis to detect early reversal signal (s) whihc for the time being should be seen as a corrective move in broad ongoing (yield) bearish trend. Ironman8848
TVC:US30Y
by Ironman8848
Thursday: US30 - Week 47Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by INotFancy
Tuesday: US30 - Week 47Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by INotFancy
Monday: US30 - Week 47Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! For now, the higher probability move is to the upside, because of the higher timeframe trend being up, and we got what looks like a pause in the trend (a 3-wave correction). I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. Thanks for the support! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by INotFancy
1
My Forecasts: PostscriptLet me say this from the outset; within the 2's5's curve is a manual, given that I do not have a great deal of time, it is not possible for me to go into great dimensions or detail I have chosen. Instead we will have to content ourselves with the revolutionary charts/diagrams both before and of the period where I have gone into more details. The same is true of the other important charts (VIX and Unemployment Claims) I refer to below. So now that we are all prepared and understand the knowledge, we must start to turn the dusty pages. Firstly lets review a chart on which I stack tremendous value: I would not wish to enter into conspiracies. There have been a handful of inversions in the manuscripts over the past three decades which all speak historical truth in advance of the crisis. The advance in the 5 year suggests salvation from the Fed can only come in the medium term as the 2 year lags behind. And now to the point around Alpha Protocol Seeking Immediate Extraction . The 2's5's is already under the nature in an impulsive form. The prior three inversions (Housing and Credit, Dot com, GFC) also suffered from a lagging Fed, that of being at least 10-12 months behind! This means that it is not uninteresting to highlight the totally overlooked inversion in 2019, it was a loud SOS signal that the economy was clearly running out of steam. I was the one who was able to properly understand that manoeuvre in both Unemployment Claims and Vix ahead of time, calling the move from 12 to 85; with complex inversions, always look to play against the crowd. See our opening in US Claims and VIX before the fact: Given we are facing both inflation via contractions in globalisation and deflation via advancements in technology etc all at the same time, it is causing a major paradox/dissonance across the board. It would serve no purpose to mention or not hint at what will happen next; my personal sense is that because the Fed ALWAYS lags behind, we will see another example of the long end of the curve driving the flows ( for those interested in bull steepening and bear flattening I have also omitted the exclamations in bold ). This would suggest that it is likely that we could be heading into an environment where you see nominal yields receiving a booster shot while real yields flatten causing further pressure on USD.
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
8