US30Y
DOW JONES SHORTS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bearish price action on DOW JONES as we had a huge parabolic move to the upside and price should make a retracement, we are in a bearish orderblock d1 area + 34.000 as a institutional figure. We can clearly see on the LTF that price is forming lower highs.
What do you think ? Where we go next ?
Visualizing Yield InversionWhen investors have a poor outlook for the economy, what do they do? They buy the longest term debt they can because it's one of the ways to price in the uncertainty of "right now" into the long term. Therefore, rational actors would do something like this:
Buy 30 year treasuries. Buying ensues, yield goes down, price goes up. Eventually 20 year yield becomes greater than 30, as described in purple. Right now for example, you'd get about 3% more yield buying the 20 year VERSUS the 30 year (note: relative yield, not nominal yield), giving us a purple line of 0.968.
The teal line (1.0) is where the relative yields are inverted if the price is below this line. Short term debt pays more than long term debt under this line, which is usually not the case and signals that things are awry.
Now simply repeat this cycle until the rational short term outlook is priced into all irrationally priced long term treasuries. Prices are too low, therefore yields are too high, and rational actors begin buying them. Prices go up, yields go down.
Next up, we have 20Y/10Y (red) at 1.235, which is intriguingly lagging behind the shorter term inversions of 10Y/5Y and 5Y/2Y. If anyone knows why, I would be interested to know! I'm not exactly an expert on debt.
Eventually this cycle repeats until the ratio of short term yields are all very close to long term yields. These conditions always precede a recession, which, by the way, is NOT a well defined term. A recession simply describes "a general decline in economic activity". Not very scientific, is it? Economists utilize a wide range of data to attempt to foresee a recession, yet the outcome is inevitable and uncontrollable. As history shows, any attempt to control the economy and avoid recession (1930s, 1970s) often make things much worse than had policy makers simply let the storm pass initially.
I like to use ratios of yields. Some people subtract the yield of one from the other, which is fine too. I think a ratioized signal is much more pure as ratios rule the world around us. Not only that, given that we're monitoring multiple relative yields, we can get a good overall picture of the current landscape.
Unfortunately there's not much history for the longer term instruments, though as I believe the 30 year has been around for atleast 50 years but only has a few years of TradingView data.
Hopefully the illustrations on this chart along with relative yields help you visualize some of what's happening. I keep this chart of relative yields up ALL the time in a tab! If you have any feedback or comments, I would appreciate it.
Good luck and hedge your bets!
Quick note: In March 2020 not only did the FED setup new centralized repo facilities directly (reverse repo, unprecedented, it's ILLEGAL by the way) and at the same time, engaged in "QE Infinity". In essence there's more avenues at which they are "forced" to buy things that nobody wants. Albeit, they buy it at about market price, assume that's the right price and that they are somehow protecting the economy by pricing in bankruptcy in one asset class and spreading it to the rest of the economy. Belligerent and thoughtless, what more could you want? At the same time, they've sucked a lot of excess cash out of the system once again by offering banks an interest rate of 0.05% for their cash in exchange for some FED junk assets. So suddenly banks are bagholding assets nobody wanted, in order to get interest on their cash, genius huh? OH yeah, and banks are SHORTING those assets on the open market! Effectively making the cash tend towards zero value (the real contract value of those assets which were originally exchanged). Next time something goes wrong, they will unload this ~1.5T diaper of dollars directly into our faces, probably sooner than later, causing more inflation.
DOW JONES LONGS 📉📉📉📉 Expecting bullish price action on DOW JONES on a mid-long term perspective as price failed to make another leg lower, the price takes out weekly lows aka sell side liquidity and then quickl reverses with a bullish candlestick h4 closure. Another conflunce in this area is that we have a bullish orderblock on h4 a strong are of demand for the price + the institutional figure 34.000.
📉 We are in a RISK OFF market sentiment today as Asian/European sessions opened bullish + green in crypto
What do you think ? Where DOW JONES goes ?
5’s & 30’sKeeping the ZIRP thesis alive for now, 30s & 20s remain inverted now 5s could overtake 10s then 30s. Bonds are screaming for sure with inflation still growing m/m, more printing is inevitable to keep the economy going, and printing is how we got here. The next announcement for fed QE expansion, I believe will be the catalyst for golds big move out of the major coil. When there’s nothing left to eat the snake eats it’s own tail.
DOW JONES LONGS 📉📉📉Expecting bullish price action on this index as price made a draw on liquidity taking out stops below 34000 a big instituional figure, we had a nice bullish closure above with high momentum, in the mid-long term perspective i think we are going for the W1 and later for the ATH's.
All of this can change tomorrow due FED meeting.
What do you think ? Comment below..
📚#e⏭️06 : Ultra Bond Futures Are Super Boring🥱💤Don't Click💡💫An Education🎓
Series Continuation
Prior Episodes Found
In The Content Below
❔ What Are Bonds
Bonds Are The Foundation
Of A Debt Based Monetary
System
Bonds Define The Cost Of
Money Over Time
Put Simply Bonds Are
Future Dollars
Read That Again🔂
US Treasury Bonds Are
Future US Dollars Deliverable
At A Specified Time
In The Future I.e
30 Years Henceforth
By Purchasing A
US Treasury Bond
You Enter Into A
Legal Contract With
The Treasury Wherein
You Will Receive
The Principle Or
"Face Value" Of The
Bond Plus The Rate
Of Interest Specified
At The Time Of Purchase
❔ A Traders Role
To Make Money I Hear You Say
Well Yes Of Course
But What Exactly As Bond Traders
Are We Getting Paid For ?
To Provide A Service
Our Collective Actions
Expressed Through The
Trading Of Bond Instruments
Determine The Cost Of Money
Yes💡
Regardless Of Your Trading
Size We Are All Interacting
With The Free Market
Our Role :
To Correctly
Price The Value
Of Future Money
When We Trade Bonds
Profitably
We Win The Game
We Have Kept The
Flame🔥
We Have Served
A Most Important
Mission
We Fulfill A
Founders Vision
d-MR96nBa
nvrBrkagn
❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds
Low Operation Costs
Regardless Of Trade Size
Only Pay Spread Fee
As Futures Contracts
Zero Overnight Cost To Carry
Quarterly Rollover Spread Only
Operation Costs Will
Kill A Trader In Time
On Time
Every Time
Same As Any Business
📔 Rules Of The Rodeo
Trend Is Dearest
Life-Long Friend
Bond Bull Market
40 Years Strong
So We Will
Mostly Trade Long
Positions Actively
Managed
Entry Orders Executed
At The Market
Trading 0.01 Unit
At A Time
ℹ️ CME Group Official
Ultra Bond Trader Site
www.cmegroup.com
Starblazers 🌠
Dreamscapers 🧙🏼♂️
Rebellion 🧗🏻♀️
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Slaves Become Masters
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US 30 Year Yields📊
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
📚#e04 :
📚#e03 :
📚#e02 :
📚#e01 :
📚🎬💎#e08 : An Ultra Bond Future💍Married To The⛪💫An Education🎓
Series Continuation
Prior Episodes Found
In The Content Below
❔ What Are Bonds
Bonds Are The Foundation
Of A Debt Based Monetary
System
Bonds Define The Cost Of
Money Over Time
Put Simply Bonds Are
Future Dollars
Read That Again🔂
US Treasury Bonds Are
Future US Dollars Deliverable
At A Specified Time
In The Future I.e
30 Years Henceforth
By Purchasing A
US Treasury Bond
You Enter Into A
Legal Contract With
The Treasury Wherein
You Will Receive
The Principle Or
"Face Value" Of The
Bond Plus The Rate
Of Interest Specified
At The Time Of Purchase
❔ A Traders Role
To Make Money I Hear You Say
Well Yes Of Course
Money
But What Exactly As Bond Traders
Are We Getting Paid For ?
To Provide A Service
Our Collective Actions
Expressed Through The
Trading Of Bond Instruments
Determine The Cost Of Money
The Cost Of Money
Cost Of Money
Yes💡
Regardless Of Your Trading
Size We Are All Interacting
With The Free Market
Our Role :
To Correctly
Price The Value
Of Future Money
When We Trade Bonds
Profitably
We Win The Game
We Have Kept The
Flame🔥
We Have Served
A Most Important
Mission
We Fulfill A
Founders Vision💜
d-MR96nBa
nvrBrkagn
❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds
Low Operation Costs
Regardless Of Trade Size
Only Pay Spread Fee
As Futures Contracts
Zero Overnight Cost To Carry
Quarterly Rollover Spread Only
Operation Costs Will
Kill A Trader In Time
On Time
Every Time
Same As Any Business
Ventured
C4L
📔 Rules Of The Rodeo
Trend Is Dearest
Life-Long Friend
Bond Bull Market
40 Years Strong
So We Will
Mostly Trade Long
Positions Actively
Managed
Entry Orders Executed
At The Market
Trading 0.01 Unit
At A Time
Slow Drip💧
ℹ️ CME Group Official
Ultra Bond Trader Site
www.cmegroup.com
Keep Your Bond⚔️
Watch Your Loyalty⌚
Buy Freedom To🔥
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Behold.. The
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☔
📚#e07🩸GG :
📚#e⏭️06 :
📚#e04 :
📚#e03 :
📚#e02 :
📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
Pluto 🛰️
Hndrxx 👩🏻🎤
📚#e03 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education🎓
Series Continuation
Prior Episodes Found
In The Content Below
Starblazers 🌠
Dreamscapers 🧙🏼♂️
Rebellion 🧗🏻♀️
Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery
Utilising The Instruments
Symbolising Our Servitude
Slaves Will Topple Masters
Behold.. The
Ultra Bond Future 🗽
US 30 Year Yields📊
📚#e02 :
📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
📚#e04 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education🎓
Series Continuation
Prior Episodes Found
In The Content Below
❔ What Are Bonds
Bonds Are The Foundation
Of A Debt Based Monetary
System
Bonds Define The Cost Of
Money Over Time
Put Simply Bonds Are
Future Dollars
Read That Again🔂
US Treasury Bonds Are
Future US Dollars Deliverable
At A Specified Time
In The Future I.e
30 Years Henceforth
By Purchasing A
US Treasury Bond
You Enter Into A
Legal Contract With
The Treasury Wherein
You Will Receive
The Principle Or
"Face Value" Of The
Bond Plus The Rate
Of Interest Specified
At The Time Of Purchase
❔ A Traders Role
To Make Money I Hear You Say
Well Yes Of Course
But What Exactly As Bond Traders
Are We Getting Paid For ?
To Provide A Service
Our Collective Actions
Expressed Through The
Trading Of Bond Instruments
Determine The Cost Of Money
Yes This Is True
Bet You Didn't Know That
Regardless Of Your Trading
Size We Are All Interacting
With The Free Market
Our Role Is To Correctly
Price The Cost Of Money
When We Trade Bonds
Profitably
Our Roles Are Fulfilled
❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds
Low Operation Costs
Only Pay Spread Fee
Regardless Of Trade Size
As Futures Contracts
Zero Overnight
Cost To Carry
Operation Costs Will
Kill A Trader Over Time
Same As Any Business
d-MR96nBa
nvrBrkagn
ℹ️ CME Group Official
Ultra Bond Trader Site
www.cmegroup.com
Starblazers 🌠
Dreamscapers 🧙🏼♂️
Rebellion 🧗🏻♀️
Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery
Utilising The Instruments
Symbolising Our Servitude
Slaves Will Topple Masters
Behold.. The
Ultra Bond Future 🗽
US 30 Year Yields📊
📚#e03 :
📚#e02 :
📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
Bitcoin, Treasuries, USD Retesting, All Telling Same StoryWhatever your opinion of these assets, they're all behaving in a fairly similar fashion, and they all have been behaving somewhat similarly over the last 3 years.
No surprise, bitcoin and foreign currencies ten to outperform when financial conditions are loose and loosening. The vice versa is likely true as financial conditions tighten.
Interestingly, if you pull up the charts on an individual basis, they all are retesting flags on a technical level. That doesn't mean they won't break back up and rally, but all three showing the same sign seems to add more weight behind likelihood that markets are in for a break upward in real rates and reduced liquidity / financial conditions.
DOW JONES LONGS UPDATE 📉📉📉Expect the price to make ATH on this instrument as we have increase in bullish momentum + santa claus rally.
What do you think ? Comment beloww
📚#e02 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education
Series Continuation
Episode One Found
In Content Below
Starblazers 🌠
Dreamscapers 🧙🏼♂️
Rebellion 🧗🏻♀️
Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery
Utilising The Instruments
Symbolising Our Servitude
Slaves Will Topple Masters
Behold.. The
Ultra Bond Future 🗽
US 30 Year Yields📊
📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
📚#e01 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️Starblazers 🌠
Dreamscapers 🧙🏼♂️
Rebellion 🧗🏻♀️
Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery
Utilising The Instruments
Symbolising Our Servitude
Slaves Will Topple Masters
Behold.. The
Ultra Bond Future 🗽
Just Going To Begin As
Perfection Is The Path 🧳
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
AMEX:PFIX
TVC:MOVE
US 30 YEARS - W1 - CLOUDS BROKEN !!!Last week price action triggered, as for the US 10 years, a long black candle which in this case also broke the weekly bottom clouds
support level @ 1.85.
The US 30 years is currently on an ongoing downtrend channel, very close to the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 1.6130 (0.71-2.5160); RSI below 50 @ 34.04.
Watch closely price ongoing price action and monitor closely the Lagging line which for the time being, after having successively broken the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen is
still above the clouds !!!
A failure, for the Lagging line to close on the next weekly closing basis above the clouds would add further pressure to the downside in putting the focus for lower levels towards the next
significant support area around 1.40% which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
CONCLUSION :
As for the US 10 years, watch and monitor closely price action on a daily and intraday basis to detect early reversal signal (s) whihc for the time being should be seen as a corrective move in broad ongoing (yield) bearish trend.
Ironman8848
Thursday: US30 - Week 47Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
Thanks for the support!
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RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
Tuesday: US30 - Week 47Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
Thanks for the support!
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💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you!
RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
Monday: US30 - Week 47Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! For now, the higher probability move is to the upside, because of the higher timeframe trend being up, and we got what looks like a pause in the trend (a 3-wave correction).
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
Thanks for the support!
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SMASH that follow button! 👍
💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you!
RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
My Forecasts: PostscriptLet me say this from the outset; within the 2's5's curve is a manual, given that I do not have a great deal of time, it is not possible for me to go into great dimensions or detail I have chosen. Instead we will have to content ourselves with the revolutionary charts/diagrams both before and of the period where I have gone into more details. The same is true of the other important charts (VIX and Unemployment Claims) I refer to below. So now that we are all prepared and understand the knowledge, we must start to turn the dusty pages.
Firstly lets review a chart on which I stack tremendous value: I would not wish to enter into conspiracies. There have been a handful of inversions in the manuscripts over the past three decades which all speak historical truth in advance of the crisis. The advance in the 5 year suggests salvation from the Fed can only come in the medium term as the 2 year lags behind.
And now to the point around Alpha Protocol Seeking Immediate Extraction .
The 2's5's is already under the nature in an impulsive form. The prior three inversions (Housing and Credit, Dot com, GFC) also suffered from a lagging Fed, that of being at least 10-12 months behind! This means that it is not uninteresting to highlight the totally overlooked inversion in 2019, it was a loud SOS signal that the economy was clearly running out of steam.
I was the one who was able to properly understand that manoeuvre in both Unemployment Claims and Vix ahead of time, calling the move from 12 to 85; with complex inversions, always look to play against the crowd. See our opening in US Claims and VIX before the fact:
Given we are facing both inflation via contractions in globalisation and deflation via advancements in technology etc all at the same time, it is causing a major paradox/dissonance across the board. It would serve no purpose to mention or not hint at what will happen next; my personal sense is that because the Fed ALWAYS lags behind, we will see another example of the long end of the curve driving the flows ( for those interested in bull steepening and bear flattening I have also omitted the exclamations in bold ). This would suggest that it is likely that we could be heading into an environment where you see nominal yields receiving a booster shot while real yields flatten causing further pressure on USD.