Friday: US30 - Week 29Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
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US30Y
Thursday: US30 - Week 29Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! --- If the structure makes another pullback (correction), then, it makes sense to look for another buying opportunity. Unless something changes, and the sellers are taking over.
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Tuesday: US30 - Week 29Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! The market could be at the beginning of a bigger downtrend, which is quite possible but still too early to know. It's also possible that we are correcting for 1 more up to break the top and continue the uptrend that has consisted for over a year now, since March 24 2020.
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Monday: US30 - Week 29Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! Short-term upside ---- long-term downside
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Black Swan - Transitory InflationIdea for Macro:
- I present to you a counterargument for the media blaring inflation narrative.
- Speculate that the interest rate hikes (Jackson Hole, etc.) are just red herrings. In fact rates may go negative.
- The real shocker is that everybody is positioned for inflation when inflation is at its peak and is indeed transitory. The reflation trade was debt driven and is supported by nothing but hot air.
“Inflation - A continuing rise in the general price level usually attributed to an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods and services” - Merriam-Webster
Actually global credit impulse is rolling off.
- There are 3 types of inflation that are relevant: Monetary, Consumer Price, Asset. (Lyn Alden, www.lynalden.com)
Monetary Inflation:
"In highly indebted economies, additional debt triggers the law of diminishing returns. This fact is confirmed when the marginal revenue product of debt (MRP) falls, where MRP is the amount of GDP created by an additional dollar of debt. In microeconomics, when debt is already at extreme levels, a further increase in debt leads to an increase in the risk premium on which a borrower will default suggesting that the bank or other lender will not be repaid. As the risk premium rises, banks are often unable to price this additional cost through to their private sector borrowers thus the loan to deposit ratio of the banks falls. Combining both the falling MRP with a declining loan to deposit (LD) ratio, results in a reduction in the velocity of money. In terms of the impact on monetary activities, a drop in the LD ratio means that more of bank deposits are being directed to the purchase of Federal, Agency and state and local securities in lieu of private sector loans. The macroeconomic result is that funds are shifted to sectors that are the least productive engines of economic growth and away from the high multiplier ones." - Too Much Debt, Hoisington Investment Management Co.
- Yes, you have M2 skyrocketing, but compare it with Debt and adjust for inflation. Wow, It did nothing to debt levels. GDP adjusted for inflation barely recovered:
- M2 doesn't exist in a vacuum, but needs to be balanced for deflationary forces. Debt is winning.
- Yes, you have consumer price inflation and asset price inflation, but these are largely driven by speculative bubbles. They are not driven by fundamental factors nor underlying conditions. They will regress to the mean by Reflexivity.
- Yes, there are supply chain issues due to COVID + political tensions, but how long will it last? Are the political tensions even necessary? What happened to lumber even with supply chain issues?
- What is even the reason for continued asset purchases by CBs?
IMO, asset purchase tapering is done to engineer a crash in the speculative asset bubbles, so that more extreme monetary policies can be enacted to try to stop the tidal wave of debt.
Once the speculative asset bubble collapses, consumer price inflation will be controlled as well. In fact there will be a dollar shortage, as each dollar is leveraged 50x+ vs. debt.
- CBs don't care about speculative asset inflation okay? Not a big deal. Bubbles even pop by themselves. Price of Big Mac and used car goes up a little bit, boohoo.
- Evidence to support my thesis is falling inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are what drives asset prices up. If inflation is expected to decrease, then the prices of assets are expected to decrease. Why would anyone hold an asset expected to depreciate in price?
Signals of falling inflation expectations:
Inflationary yields:
Inflationary currency pairs:
FRED inflation expectation rate:
fred.stlouisfed.org
Gold - you might see something crazy happen here. This can be the end of a distribution pattern:
Inflationary Commodities:
- The stock market is one of the last markets to receive liquidity trickling down from the source. Currencies, bonds, commodities lead them and stocks should not be used as an indicator for future inflation expectations over them.
- Right now, the world is positioned for inflation and are looking for interest rate hikes as the signal, but that won't be catalyst.
- Inflation and liquidity flows have been cut off at the source, and now we are at the cliff of the debt driven sugar rush. There must be great suffering in order to justify more extreme monetary policies. Then and only then will you have sticky inflation in a stagflationary environment.
"Inflation is transitory" - Jerome Powell
GLHF
- DPT
P.S. Disclaimer - I am relentlessly selling risk assets, long volatility and bonds.
Volatility - Do Not Resuscitate - Evergrande (VIXplosion)Idea for Macro:
- Free money is cut off at the source. China Credit Impulse turned negative > Evergrande is first to fall > Overseas investments downsized > widespread effects.
- China was the only productive economy in 2020 > driver of global economy (60% importer of oil).
- CN30Y is closely correlated to CCI > leads US30Y > leads US risk assets.
- Chinese Central Bank POC draining liquidity from the system (Injects 10 bn yuan via RRP while 30 bn yuan expires).
- China HY leads down > US HY/Junk goes down > NDX goes down:
- Currency showing strength:
When you see currencies, bonds, and equities rising together, it means normal correlations have fallen apart. Typical before a crash/crisis type event.
CCI is the leading indicator.
Will see a VIXplosion.
GLHF
- DPT
Tuesday: US30 - Week 28Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Monday: US30 - Week 28Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!! The bigger market pattern is still intact, and I'm therefore still looking out for the price to reach and break the top. And from there I will monitor the price since we will be at new highs.
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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US10Y - Strategy WeeklyA couple of things to note here as the chart clearly shows the attempt of a break on the log-chart.
We now know Sellers are attempting the strategical and important pin on their opponent. It is clear the inflation trade is deteriorating, and in the most profound sense looks rather like a deeper mission that is underway. On the technical side, the next levels in play with a break on the chart here are at 1.00% and 0.50%.
The next charts is clearer as to what we were tracking, firstly the US10Y has completed the full retrace back towards 1.5%/1.75%, and secondly, a lot of unwinding has begun in Commodities and Cyclicals as Oil retreats from the key 75 resistance.
With a break in the log-chart, these larger areas of the chart are now rendered useful for freer manoeuvring and can trigger a sharp uptick in volatility for those who are becoming quite rigid. We need to keep an eye on the state of affairs in inflation and wages in particular, although when looking at the headings cooking for the US via fiscal tightening and etc, it looks like the inflation trade as a lot further to unwind yet.
Friday: US30 - Week 27Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Wednesday: US30 - Week 27Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Tuesday: US30 - Week 27Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
Thanks for the support!
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Monday: US30 - Week 27Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Friday: US30 - Week 26Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Thursday: US30 - Week 26Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Wednesday: US30 2 - Week 26Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context! Some US30 analysis!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Wednesday: US30 - Week 26Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context ! So far, US30 is moving exactly as expected. We got a down-move which is very likely the start of a possible 3-wave correction!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Tuesday: US30 - Week 26Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context! So far, US30 is moving exactly as expected. We got a down-move which is very likely the start of a possible 3-wave correction!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
Monday: US30 - Week 26Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context! So far, US30 is moving exactly as expected. There's lots of divergence present, so I would be careful with buy-setups from this point onwards until a bigger correction is formed to proved better entry setups/reasons.
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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Thursday: US30 2- Week 25Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context! Also check out my YouTube and support me there with a subscribe, like and some constructive criticism!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
Thursday: US30 - Week 25Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context!
In context to market structure, I'm looking for a pause in the uptrend in the shape of a possible "Continuation Running Flat".
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
Wednesday: US30 - Week 25Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context! The price is currently moving up on decreasing volume, which is a sign of bulls depleting. In context to market structure, I'm looking for a pause in the uptrend in the shape of a possible "Continuation Running Flat".
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
Tuesday: US30 - Week 25Hello Traders! Check related ideas for market context!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
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RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.