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US30Y

Sunday: US30 - Week 20 (21)On the 15min timeframe, the structure is still on an uptrend and we are currently in what looks like a little flat to break the top of the structure, which would be the first step towards the development of the Regular Flat. When and IF we break the top I will be looking for a shift in price action towards seller strength. I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by INotFancy
Friday: US30 - Week 20I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMASH that follow button! 👍 💡 Leave a comment and/or message me on how I can improve and provide better content, I'm open to suggestions to create a better experience for you! RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by INotFancy
2
US10Y Yield Poised to ExplodeAfter a strong 7Y YST auction, the US10Y yield just broke out above the 21 day EMA. We're back at 1.615%, and poised to blow up as the week progresses. This recent buying frenzy in bonds may be exhausted, and yields could be poised for a solid spike higher (potentially on Powell remarks about future monetary policy tightening tomorrow). Fed QE bond purchases are still running at $120 Billion per month, so any hint of tapering could send markets into a tailspin. Especially as the Treasury will increase bond supply simultaneously. Don't even mention an increase in the IOER, or banks will close credit lines faster than you can blink...
TVC:US10Y
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4
Biden's Infrastructure Plan, Month-End Rebalancing- Welcome to the final trading day of Q1, folks! Futures were relatively flat in the overnight session ahead of Biden's long awaited Infrastructure announcement today, which should see a proposal in the realm of $2.25 Trillion tackle roads, bridges, and the EV market, among others. I have no idea why the Biden administration would raise taxes to pay for it, since they could just ask the Fed to print the money as the government has seemingly become addicted to lately. The government just created Trillions of dollars out of thin air to give to households (printing GDP), making the working class notably poorer (debasing the dollar), and now they're going to ask for it back via taxes? SMH. - The US10Y Treasury yield found support at the 50MA (h), and looks poised to cool further on potential higher (quarter end) inflows into Treasuries ($41B), at least according to Bank of America. JP Morgan called for as high as $316 Billion in month end equity outflows. However, it's day of, and we're seeing a lake of a market out there. Unless we're about to see a colossal single day puke, markets appear unphased, and poised to continue to melt higher. - The S&P is set to open up around 0.20% to 3,955, with the Dow flat at 32,925, the Nasdaq up 0.70% to 12,969, and the Russell up around 0.53% to 2,204. It's insane to see critical supports broken, only to be recaptured on yet another low volume melt up. The bears (sans me and a few others) are extinct, and clearly, price no longer means what it used to. With both demand and supply being controlled by central banks and governments, the price of assets are essentially meaningless. The distortion is becoming aggressive, but at some point, I still believe we're going to see the entire house of cards fall. I've said it a million times, it's all a ponzi, and the lack of productivity is becoming a major problem for the real economy, and for our future prosperity, and that's not the half of it. - Vix is being sold off this morning as we approach the open, with support at the gap fill from Feb 2020 around 18.80. We're currently trading at 19.20 as of 8:45AM. - European markets traded lower, with the CAC40 down by 0.10%, and the Dax down 0.14%, with the FTSE 100 down 0.24%, and the SMI down 0.16%. Asian markets were also lower, with the Hang Seng down 0.85%, the CSI 300 down 0.90%, and the Nikkei 225 down 0.75%. The BOJ apparently said they're going to taper bond purchases in April. WTF? Did I read that wrong? Nope... - Gold is up around 0.10% to 1,687, after an ugly session yesterday, with Silver down 0.18%. We're now trading around 24.09. Platinum is up 2.5% after losing the 21 day EMA and 50 day MA yesterday, but is retesting as we speak, we're now sitting at 1,182. Copper traded higher by 0.88% to 4.00, and Palladium is up by 1.5% to 2,628. - Crude is down slightly, with WTI down just 0.20%, and trading at 60.40, and Brent down 0.30%, and trading around 63.96. - The US Dollar (DXY) tagged a new recent high around 93.43, and is cooling slightly as we approach the open. If we see any signs of risk-off from month end selling, or potentially a sell-the-news reaction to Biden's infrastructure, we're going to see the dollar skyrocket. Our monthly target is 95.25. - On the data front, we saw the MBA Mortgage Applications Index fall by -2.2%, and the ADP Employment Change rise by 517k, vs the 525k expected. Next we'll see Chicago PMI, then Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Inventories, and of course, tomorrow we have Jobless claims, and the ISM Manufacturing Index, but as I mentioned on Monday, the number one print I'm looking forward to this week, is March Payrolls on Friday. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
7
It's Buy-back Season, Baby!9:12AM - Market preview: - Yesterday's PA looked like a buy-back fueled spending fest, with corporations spending as much on buy-backs as they did pre-COVID. I guess somethings never change, or do they? The Ponzi appears to be alive and well (for now). Don't you just love it when individual investors have next to no control over PA? However, this morning, the S&P is set to open down around 0.30% to 3,946, with the Dow down 0.12% to 32,993, the Nasdaq down 0.64% to 12,861, and the Russell down around 0.15% to 2,152. - Vix is holding on to a 21 handle after kissing a new post March crash low of 18.70 last Friday (we've now filled the final gap), and we're rallying toward the upper end of the range with conviction. - The US10Y Treasury yield continues to rip higher, and moments ago we tested the highest level since Jan 2020 around 1.774%, likely putting pressure on risk. The US30Y yield is also rallying after a strong performance yesterday, and we're back near the previous high around 2.464%. - The US Dollar (DXY) exploded overnight, and blew past our intraday target of 93. We're now sitting around 93.22 at 9AM, and heading toward the 94 level (our monthly target is 95.25. - European markets traded mixed again, with the CAC40 up by 0.57%, and the Dax up 0.31%, with the FTSE 100 flat and the SMI down 0.23%. Asian markets were mixed also, with the Hang Seng up 0.31%, the CSI 300 down 0.20%, and the Nikkei 225 up around 1%. - Gold is puking on the stronger dollar, and rise in yields, and is down around 1.65% to 1,684, with Silver down by as much as 2.25% (we've now lost the 200 day MA). We're trading around 24.08. Platinum is down 0.60%, and is sitting at 1,166, while Copper traded lower by 1.45% to 3.97, and Palladium rose by 1.85% to 2,583, after falling by as much as 5% yesterday. - Crude is down notably, with WTI down 1.7%, and trading at 60.46, and Brent down around 1.57%, and trading around 63.96. - Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
TVC:DXYLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
US Utra Treasuries sink to new low. The price of US Ultra T-Bonds have fallen below a key level of 180.00 (Trading view's instrument is decimalised and shows 18000), this is on the rise of US longer dated yields approaching nearly 2.5%. The 30 Year Rate is projected to reach 2.75% and even 3%, based on rising inflation as the US economy is expected to rival that of China's growth in 2021 - around a 7% gain in GDP. But don't expect the fall of Ultra Treasury bonds to be a straight line as growing yields means a growing demand for the bonds, pushing the price up and yield lower. Higher longer dated yields will also mean a switch from stocks to bonds challenging the current ATH in the Dow Jones and S&P.
CBOT:UB1!
by majicktrader
GME Seeing Heavy Support, Will we see a Retest of 300+?After a near 50% crash over just 5 days, GameStop (GME) is seeing heavy support at the 21 day EMA, and we're back at a 222 handle. My play here would be to exclusively short GME when we see the upper band of the flag tested near 300+. But, to be honest, with risk so incredibly sporadic, and flows (and price) essentially blurred by MM and Fed manipulation, I'm staying away from GME until I see another massive rally. Then my plan would be to short back to sub 250's...
NYSE:GME
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
US30Y Time for bond yields to reverseThis is the U.S. Government Bond 30Y Yield from 1988 until today. I chose this hyper long-term chart on the 1M (monthly) time-frame as with bonds being the talk of the month as for reasons that may move stocks, Gold etc lower, I wanted to get a good understanding of what the real long-term picture is. This illustrates a clear and standard Channel Down. I have applied the Fibonacci levels on it. As you see the price is now testing the 0.618 retracement level, which is exactly on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). The chart clearly shows that the MA50 and the MA100 (green trend-line have been acting as a Sell Zone since at least 1995 (where we can measure). We can see that only once over these decades did the price (marginally) break the 0.786 Fib (October/ November 2018). On all rejections within the MA50/100 Sell Zone, the price always pulled back to at least the 0.236 Fibonacci level. That means that the upside is limited on the US30Y and we will most likely start seeing a bearish reversal soon. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> xBTala --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US30YShort
by TradingShot
13
USG bond ETF $TLT options, inspired by CryptoHayesHello. This is my overnight setup for the weekend. I wanted to hold short or open long equities rather than bonds but it's not feasible at the moment. Unfortunately this is posted after market close, but will serve as a journal for how poorly/fantastically I play it. A funky strangle, with a 1:1:1 ratio: Mar 19 +140C @ 0.65 Mar 19 +135P @ 1.45 Apr 16 +100P @ 0.07 Profit zone: ~$133 > x < ~$141 What I am planning: For TLT to rise rapidly and CryptoHayes to be wrong, letting me roll/close in profit, covering the initial costs of all 3 positions along with profit. This is why i decided to buy the calls closer to the money. If I am wrong on Monday's directional close, I will likely close all 3 positions and take the loss. The expiries are not good. Mistakes I can point out immediately: I've chosen options too close to expiry I expect movement and have not hedged for no mvement I may have opened too early just to have a position open Personal consumption is on the rise, and that may lead to inflation Reason for the Mar 19 140C call: I am very bullish on bonds due to recent news. Stimulus, taxes confirmed not to be reduced. You've got to be mental to think the USG would want to raise rates. Though consumer spending is almost back to previous highs... Reason for Mar 19 135P: Maybe it'll go down now. Reflation due to easing of Covid lockdowns. Reason for Apr 16 100P: I'm certain this is not how you do it, but it's my "tail risk", cheap hedge in case yield hell breaks loose. Better picture because the preview is missing some items: % Compare of TLT and 30 year yield Personal Consumption What's CryptoHayes would have instead recommended: go ape mode on bitcoin, ape mode hedge on bond yields.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NeoButane
5
Game, Set and Match!📌 ridethepig | Game, Set and Match! In order to inform ourselves about the dangers of this move, we shall in what follows point to a few live charts which we called live together from 2019 that the 2s5s was going to invert frantically , and was a bad sign. It enables occupation of the dominos, which for those following long enough will know the one thing we always through individually is our playbook . 1️⃣ Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. ✅ 2️⃣ A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". ✅ 3️⃣ The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. ✅ ✅ Powell's noble attempt to pick a fight with the end game in an economic cycle can be regarded as having come to nothing. The threat comes from confidence and credit . Aiming for a complete annihilation across risk assets later in 2021, the presence of the inversion was sufficient. Now this move is being made with momentum. Game Set ... & Match The simplest example is to explain the move with diagrams which was the wish here. To occupy a piece of tradingview real estate with a live walk through in the end of an economic cycle. This could be considered as a momentum move in the sense of the word. The rule is: I’m long vol for a very long time. Insane risks are palatable but you need to understand the game otherwise you have a very high likelihood of total destruction. Stay long vol short dollars. We are entering into a series of exchanges between public and private assets, the door is closing, like in the Star Wars movie when Chewy and Harrison Ford are running to the doors, we can see the door closing in China, and in Russia and yet we still have a chance to get out. An exchange towards a decentralised world is possibly into 2032.
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
67
A Macro Thread on YieldsThe bond market can be quite tricky. In terms of yield curves consider the following: Bear steepening Bull Steepening Bear Flattening Bull Flattening > Steepening (the premium for longer debt is growing) > Flattening (the premium is shrinking) For example, bull steepening, which is exactly what we have been doing this since the start of this year: The short-end of the yield curve (typically driven via fed funds rate) falls faster than the long-end, steepening the yield curve. The long end of the yield curve is driven by a wide range of factors, including - economic growth, expectations, inflation expectations, and supply and demand of longer-maturity Treasury securities and etc 📍 A bull steepener ↳ is a shift in the yield curve caused by falling interest rates - rising bond price - hence the term “bull”. 📍 A bull flattener ↳ is the opposite of a steepener - a situation of rising bond prices which causes the long-end to fall faster than the short-end. 📍 Bear steepness and flatteners ↳ are caused by falling bond prices across the curve A bull steepener is a change in the yield curve caused by short-term interest rates falling faster than long-term rates, resulting in higher spread between the two rates. A bull steepener occurs when the Fed reserve is expected to lower interest rates. This expectation causes consumers and investors to become optimistic about the economy and bullish about prices in the stock market above the short-term. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:US02Y
by ridethepig
21