US30Y
Possible Correction ?Due to Covid 19 the US30Y has drop. When things gets back to normal, should we expect an increase ?
U.S. 10Y Yield Post Debate (9/30)
The U.S. 10 Yr. Yield Jumped over 5.2 BP to +7% , following a full in prices post debate. This is the highest since sept 18th.
ridethepig | 10Y Treasury Note📌 Yields are clearly hesitant to subscribe to the V shapers in Global Equities. An important observation in an extraordinarily difficult trading environment. The 0.90% - 0.50% range is clearly defined and from time to time we have had to get involved with a gentle grin and attempt to play both sides.
The 0.50% lows are 🔑 for this battlefield, as long as they are holding there is nothing to see to the downside. Losing the lows creates a freedom manoeuvre towards 0.17%. Otherwise all sellers are to be viewed as sacrifices and necessary in the basing formation. Expecting an eventual solution to the topside with 1.0% and 1.45% targets into 2020/2021.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback and charts coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | Recession Strategy📍 This chart update comes from the ' Alpha Protocol - Seeking Immediate Extraction '
The cramped inversion should aways be considered the end game of an economic cycle. But of course we will get the v shapers and naysayers who obliges that stonks only go up. The space available to operate against the Robinhood army is becoming more flexible. Sharp speculators are seeing more of an advance in the 2's 5's curve and abandoning ship when it suits them.
The threat of recession completely materialised and shows the importance of outguessing its weakness. You can learn from this inversion that:
1️⃣ Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. ✅
2️⃣ A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". ✅
3️⃣ The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up.
Powell's noble attempt to pick a fight with the end game in an economic cycle can be regarded as having come to nothing. The threat comes from confidence and credit. Aiming for a complete annihilation across risk assets into 2021, the presence of the inversion was sufficient. Now this move will be made with momentum.
Real Yields vs. Gold (Fundamental Analysis)Tt should come as no surprise that the market cap expansion machine keeps creating value out of nothing. Unlimited upside in a risk free market that keeps ignoring everything .... Let’s recognize that the Fed has produced a liquidity machine that has pushed select indices to all time highs with most gains coming from a few tech stocks. Take those stocks out of the equation and $SPX is still flat on the year and most stocks are down on the year.Viewed with this lens this multi month rally is not all that different than what we’ve seen in the past.
In fact, the precedence is striking in that the counter rally in the year 2000 peaked on September 1st following a furious rally in August. Sound familiar?
$SPX hit a peak of 1530 on that day as the worst was assumed to be over and optimism had come back roaring following the initial tech crash in March of that year.
But it was after September 1 that the real fun started and $SPX then commenced its long journey down that ended in October 2002 when $SPX bottomed at 798.55
US10Y-US02Y Inversion;Un-Inversion compared w/ Dotcom FractalRemember, the stock market isn't the economy. A healthy economy usually is correlated to a healthy stock-market (price valuations, liquidity) However, the reverse is not true. The stock market isn’t the economy. There are a lot of private businesses in the U.S. that don’t reflect in the stock market. The stock market is forward looking while economic data reflects what happened in the past (backward looking). The stock market doesn’t reflect how the economy is “today”, instead it reflects where investors think the economy will be in the future (3,6,12+ months). When you look at March of 2009, stocks at that point had bottomed, with unemployment continuing to rise--peaking at 10% in Q4 of 2009 (6 months from the March 09’ bottom). Now keeping in mind that the stock-market is forward looking and that economic data is backward looking, we can make the assumption that speculation accounts for the difference that investors would price in if they had current economic data.
The stock market is more volatile than the economy.
Geopolitical tensions, external environmental affects, currency rates, also contribute.
The stock market is just a collective of speculators, with investors being optimistic towards the reopening of the economy. Markets have done well when news gets less bad.
Stimulus
Since mid-March, the fed has both cut interest rates to near zero, buying trillions of U.S. dollars of assets. Low interest rates encourage business to borrow at low costs. One of the things this does is set a floor for investors who assume that interest rates will be low for a while, giving them purchasing power. Multiple studies done that showed a good percentage of Americans using part of their $1,200 stimulus checks to trade stocks” (Fitzgerald, 2020). This can be directly correlated with Robinhood new accounts peaking 4 weeks after the checks began to ship (Bloomberg, 2020) and also Google Trend all time high’s for words like “Buy stocks” ( Google , 2020).
According to Pew Research, only 14% of U.S. families are invested in the stock market, with 52% having “some” investments via 401k or IRA’s. This mean that the gains disproportionately benefited a minority of the country. I think that it’s clear the stimulus positively affected Wallstreet while leaving Mainstreet behind.
Total Public Debt as Percent of GDP (All-Time-High) for Aug 13White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow has really changed his tone on the scale and sustainability of American debt. Remarks country isn't nearing its borrowing limits. Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (GFDEGDQ188S) was first constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in October 2012.
It is calculated using Federal Government Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN) and Gross Domestic Product, 1 Decimal (GDP):
GFDEGDQ188S = ((GFDEBTN/1000)/GDP)*100
GFDEBTN/1000 transforms GFDEBTN from millions of dollars to billions of dollars.
"All Time High's"This was the first chart that signaled a recession in April of 2020 when the curve first inverted last year in May. This was pure luck, by simply drawing a fractal of previous yield curve inversions from past recessions from May, which was around 360 days from the TA that suggested the market would recess in April of 2020. Obviously covid is a black-swan--unpredictable and un-speculative--however the bond markets continue to get this all correct, 6-12 months in advance.
Keep your tabs on the curve.
$TLT Signal 1 & 2, Stacked Dollar Cost Avg.With A -194 bp stoploss, my second added TLT long position form 73/30 is approaching in on +1%. while my primary position from the 23rd of june remains 975 bp or 6.04% in profit from the publicly given signal. Positions are both open are floating.
ridethepig | End Game in the Cycle📌 This diagram portrays the final stages in the economic cycle which I called in 2019. The position arose after Equities began extending beyond reality; all sellers needed was an intending cause.
The construct of the ingredients here are clear and simple, after Fed cleared the runway till 2022 you can see the risk coming out of bonds. Of course now it creates the "following subtle trap" where the belly of the curve begins to move towards the front end which then brings the 30Y with it.
It is worth pointing out where other countries in the world are as there is little divergence on the rates differentials now:
📍 Spain
📍 Singapore
📍 Canada
📍 UK
📍 Japan
📍 Germany
There is no reason why the US cannot see a retracement back to 0.9% / 0.8% levels ... Watch for the next dominos in Equities and Gold based on deep knowledge of the flows as we can call it. More risk to come.
Guys? Please tell me that this could be double top?I been researching for hours and hours on google trying to figur out when it is right time to make a trade because on google it tells me many things about double top that can be trap move??? I am scared that if i do it wrong i will mess up my trades?? I know google tells me that when price bounce off the support level, it is a sell. BUT i also saw that it broke the support and reversed to induce buyers to take a trade only for it to reverse against them?? Is this true?? Please educate me because babypips and google arent very informative against big players in this game.
US30Y - following the path of the previously forecasted uptrend US30-year bond yields are following the uptrend that we forecasted in the post of April 28. It is currently in the final stages of minor wave 1 which is part of the 5 impulse waves that should lead yields to the area surrounding 2.44%, where intermediate wave 3 should be completed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
US30Y - US long-term interest rates first stop at 2.44%US30Y finished intermediate wave 2 down and it started its way up to the most probable first stop at 2.44%. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
ridethepig | One For The History Books...Negative US Rates !!!Negative rates are finally here for the US with the 6mo t-bill ticking below -2bps (feed is slightly delayed here). Simply meaning that you will now need to pay the US government for 6mo cash deposits. This is the only way they can continue in the "end game" strategy.
It is a well known phenomenon that the US 2's 5's was ringing alarm bells last year , those who were able to conduct their middle-game carefully were able to build credible trading ideas that leave the opposition hopeless in the endgame.
One of the main requisites for BTC to succeed in the endgame is based on the ability that FED can continue to confiscate while the "People vs Establishment" narrative deteriorates via lack of confidence in monetary policy. The endgame is much more the part of trading in which advantages are needed from economics. Now, the realisation of advantages, specifically advantages in Volatility .
In order to understand the flows across the entire board, you must learn about the endgame by starting from its individual elements, because it has such elements, just like the opens and middle-game strategies. We have previously already dug into these in detail that allow you to form ideas like this for the crash in German Equities.
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Gold vs. Stock rally, who will winnnnn? :D xD We face an ongoing Rally betweene US stock market and Goldprise.
Which will win and gain the most?
Last rally was 2008 :D
reversal signs for us30 at 28000.28000 - 27900 is a zone where we detected multiple pips. after the massive loss of 1000 points, we are facing a reversal/retracement of the daily loss of yesterday.
we see that the price is trapped in the yellow box en developed multiple wicks. We can expect around 14:00 a stop hunt to the level 27880, and after that, it will rise.
US30/USD (DOW JONES) LONG SET UP AFTER MARKET DROPS 1,000 POINTSUS30 BUY SIGNAL BUY LIMIT
Time Frame : H4 Entry
ENTRY Price : $27948 & Entry price 2: $28148
Stop Loss $28670
TP 1: $28448 & TP 2: $28748
TP.3 $29048 & TP.4 $29348
TP.5 $29648
The Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed its loss in afternoon trading after plunging more than 1,000 points as coronavirus pandemic fears intensified.
But it was still down more than 800 points heading into the last hour of the regular session. The Nasdaq dived 3%, the Dow Jones industrials sank 2.9% and the S&P 500 shed 2.7% in the stock market today. Small caps tracked by the Russell 2000 tumbled 2.8%.
Volume was sharply higher on both major exchanges vs. the same time Friday. The Dow is now underwater for the year, down 2%, while the S&P 500 held a 1% gain. Both indexes fell below their 50-day moving average lines. The Nasdaq, up 3% year to date, is testing support.
The coronavirus continued to spread outside of China, as cases ramped up in South Korea, Iran and Italy. That rattled stock markets around the globe.
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At 1.50 Support A deliberate soft closing down at the 1.50 lows (instead of breaking through allows for an underestimation in the bounce); here, the systematic approach of buying the dip deserves victory. We can cast some light together on playing through the flank:
In the extraordinarily traditional sense an inversion which we are looking at always leads to a recession and volatile positioning. This change of cycle that I have mentioned usually crops up in Vol first:
But what is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y, is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of this soft close and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises.
All the best and thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
On the fly...For those tracking the latest round of Fixed Income chart updates we have the final leg to the stool ahead right on time for NY. You will notice that on the back-end of the curve there is loud messages of a meaningful top being placed. The technical breakdown is indicating that we have another round of flattening towards key support at 32bps.
For the Chartpack today we have...
US 2s5s Curve :
US 2s10s Curve :
US 2s5s Curve:
The maps are crystal clear for US10Y Yields:
Highly recommend all those tracking Fixed Income to make note of the 2s5s10s and 2s5s30s " Fly " both breaking out with markets positioning ahead for 2020. Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking for the end of the cycle and Fixed Income.
