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US30Y

Another few days of stock market rally This week further stocks rising before Big Short II, so be carefull.. and imfho (disclaimer) ;) Intermarket correlations of US Treasury bond yields, US Oil, Gold, Bitcoin and DXY USD index. Pinpoints the start of UJ Seasonality which is likely this week. One of its signals is a stock rally and another one the negative correlation between DXY USD index and US stock market (US30). USD will collapse and stock will rally, then followed by a bigger crash of the stock market (s), likely to be world wide. The coming recession is an opinion I share with many analysts. All agree it's due because more than 10 years have passed since the last one started. I see in the charts that there is more, something like a confluence of annual, decennial and millenial cycles. We better stock up my friends in case I'm a right! :)
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Deep-Peat-Shark
2
US30 Buying cycle inside ascending triangleTo be added to my earlier publication wherein I explain to expect a stock rally followed by a larger stock market crash is a stock buying cycle locked up inside an ascending triangle. This particular set of conditions has lead to sudden stock rally and drop of DXY halfway the month of June. We could expect to see a similar cause and effect from current date until into March next year. Stress signals on the stock market has been rising recently with sudden drops in the early markets of the Asian session. Last down cycle was drawing a cup and handle candle formation and we are now drawing the last bit of the handle. It could mean nothing or it could be just that last extra signal that my earlier predicted stock market rally and crash is in fact going to happen.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Deep-Peat-Shark
BIG Trouble Ahead for American Yields: You Have Been Warned!Overall, yields around the world will continue to plummet as the world slips into a bonafide global economic crisis sometime later in 2020. While 2008 was known as the banking/financial crisis, this time around, it will be a full-blown world-wide currency crisis compounded by a plethora of social and geopolitical issues which may exacerbate into a depression by 2021-2022. My conservative target for the US10Y is a full 1.000 although I believe the 10 year later in 2020 into early 2021 could be below 0.500. Moreover, I believe the US30Y will reach a full 1.500 with an eventual 1.000 or less by late 2020 or 2021. There is a chance by 2021 US yields may indeed go negative, however, the aforementioned targets are assuming a bottoming above 0bps in interest. In the next few years people will lose confidence in governmental debt and yields will spike higher however the bottom is not even close to being "in" like the fake news mainstream media thought after the bounces from September. This will likely not happen until sometime 2021 - perhaps somewhat sooner if Trump becomes impeached leading to incredible uncertainty and/or USA/China trade escalates to the downside. The China-USA war has now drastically shifted to China have full-blown leverage; US data is now WORSE than the Chinese and the impeachment possibilities will wreck havoc for Trump. Now is the best opportunity to dip into Gold, Silver, Platinum, Rhodium and Palladium while they are still "affordable" and before 'FOMO' settles. Precious metals should now encompass at-least 1/3 of everyone's portfolio. - zSplit
TVC:US30YShort
by PaulDeep19131
1
Inter Market Correlation updateIn January I posted a lighter version of this chart, with less symbols on one chart. A have to admit it turned out a bit like a can of worms but just because of the many markets comparing it gets more interesting in my opinion. Between January and now and adjusted my Gold expectations and it does perform even better than I expected it would do at first. This while Oil I adjusted down to $64 because of the drop throughout June. Interested in commodities have a look at Platinum from last Friday! On this market correlation chart you also find US Treasury Bond Yields and I recently added Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as an indicator for the crypto market. Remarkable how the yields continued downwards and made an all time low last week. Bitcoin correlates pretty much positive with US30, with a certain delay. One year ago in August and September US30 and DXY correlated negatively for two consecutive months. Something I have seen before once USD devaluation has started to make a steady downtrend, which traditionally takes place halfway August. Predictions from January are still the same and I am expecting stocks to rally one more time before we will see a bigger crash. BTCUSD to follow accordingly, see my related ideas.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Deep-Peat-Shark
1
US30Y - Mankind’s greatest fear is Mankind itself.Hi, today we are going to talk about US 30-year Treasury bond and its current landscape. We observe a new historic 30-year Treasury bond with high selling volume, which probably, are going to unleash a devastating selling pressure over the asset, that could outflow to Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD), there is label as heaven assets. That even after the recent surge, could be wrongly tagged as already overpriced, since the clear signals of the recession being screamed by the US indicators such as inverted yield curve, and the numb reaction of the market on the FED cuts (usually took as a green flag for the bulls). This landscape shows us that the smart money is getting out of the market, going into heaven assets, hedging positions, and even Fiat Money. Germany itself its already working in countermeasures (opening a possibility to spend extra $55 Billion) to face this possible recession, there the numbers are slowing down too, which is happening across the world, signal that this plague it's justing starting, spreading, so even if certain commodities start to look tasty, try to avoid them and focus on heaven assets. Winds of fear and uncertain are getting stronger each day, stay safe out there — those who remain liquid after this storm is going to have juicy opportunities to get in. Thank you for reading and leave your comments if you like.
TVC:US30YShort
by Igor-Silva
1
Government pulling the wool over your eyes....As you can see price broke our trend line, respected our resistance line then dropped, price is currently now at another little resistance level after making a bullish correction where we either see a break or bounce. Our thinking is we are going to get a bounce very soon either at the resistance level we are at now or the resistance level just above, either way we are not going to break both resistance levels as the US economy is really not as strong as they are making out, they are pulling the wool over your eyes as they don't want to scare you. Look at the bigger picture, if they scare you they everyone will pull money out the markets causing them to crash earlier than they are going to... everything the government do is for there own benefit... not anyone else's like they tell you.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by ApexFX_Pro
The bond bear is not here yet.... use a log scaleThere have been a lot of talks of a bond bear market over the past year. That would be a big problem, but it's not here yet. The biggest problem is that too many chartists are using and circulating charts of trend resistance breaking in bonds that do not use log scales. I get that it seems intuitively dumb for a yield chart to use a log scale, but that's how this has traded for the better part of the last 20 years. Trade what is, not what you think should be. Turns out we haven't yet hit the top channel here, so we're not in a bond bear. It also turns out that touching the top channel occurred every time the fed quit hiking rates over the past 30 years, which preceded the last 3 recessions / bear markets by 1-2 months at least. Short term, we're in a rising wedge that the bond market has obeyed quite well. If we rise directly to the top of the channel, that would imply a May 2019 break of this uptrend and a recession / bear market starting around mid 2019 into 2020. Who knows how this actually plays out, but I know we haven't hit a true bond bear yet, and even when we do, it'll probably be far less exciting than people want to believe.
TVC:US10Y
by GTStockmaster
2
Is $SPY / $TLT Ratio Repricing Lower Inflation?U.S. equities bounce from initially being down 15 handles, but volatility is expected. However, is recent move expected? Yes, in my opinion, as markets are ultimately forced to re-price growth and inflation . Step back from the earnings headlines because that's literally old news. Although Q3-18 earnings growth is up nearly 20 percent, over 60 percent of companies that have reported are seeing negative FX impacts (i.e. rising dollar). There is also a solid concern on Q4-18 negative guidance going forward. That's not to say earnings will be horrible. Too early to tell, but the rising DXY will impact overseas earnings (remember 2014-15?). Furthermore, late cycle increases in wages and other employment costs will continue to crimp margins. If we look at D-R-I-P (disinflation/reflation/inflation proxy), the inflect is clear and largely impacted by the commodities and FX components and diverting from yields. This proxy is important when considering SPY/TLT ratio in terms of "risk-on/risk-off" market mentality. D-R-I-P has a strong intra-day correlation to the ratio r=.78 and intermediate-term correlation of r=.72. Given this, if we put up the proxy to the test of the TACVOL range, there is a strong probability of a 3.52 to 7.33 percent decline versus 2.5 to 4.92 percent to the upside. The ratio has been able to work off most of it's oversold move, but another three percent lower is in the cards. The COT data shows 209,584 contracts net-long of SPX, the second largest position of crude oil's massive 500,000+ contract net-long (bad idea). Compare this to the 30-year bond's net-short positioning of 118,924 contracts. If there is any disappointments on the macro front, this will get fuglier quickly.
AMEX:SPY
by TheMacroStrategist
Rising rates: Why is the 30 year yield so low? The 30 year treasury yield has traded under 3.25% for almost 4 years now. The Fed continues to hike rates on a quarterly basis and Trump is unhappy about rising rates. Every day we hear how the economy is 'in great shape', and jobs data is 'as good as it gets'. More significantly what is pushing up rates are increased treasury issuance and the Fed's accelerating Quantitative Tightening. So all in all why isn't the 30 year yield closer to 4% like it was only four years ago? For several years the market has priced in low expectations for the long term. The yield curve continues to flatten towards the lowest spreads since leading up to the great recession. (28 basis points on the 30-5 spread and 30 points on the 10-2 spread). At this rate the curve could flatten or invert in 6 to 12 months. An inverted yield curve historically is followed by economic recession. What's your thoughts?
TVC:US30Y
by dime
2
US1. T-Bonds. Trades of 2017, number 1US1 is completing an eventual Cypher pattern and soon will be ready for another leg up. Notice a bullish divergence on a weekly timeframe: such a big timeframe indicates this last leg up will be important and will take some months to develop. But on overall return, in my opinion, it will be one of the best trades of next year. Notice as well that, despite having tagged the Median Line of the fork, price is heading towards the Hagopian Line. The projected target lays right on the 23.6% Fibo which is a completion point for a bullish Cypher pattern. Long entry will be placed around 140, with a SL order at 125 and TP1 at 190, with TP2: at 207
ULong
by captain_smollett