Requested Update: Bond Yields Complete a 5-wave pattern higherWe have our first indication of a top in bond yields with price overlapping and losing it's impulsivity to the upside. However, a top is not confirmed until yields breach 3.40% which is our wave 4 of one lesser degree.
To do so should confirm the beginning of our wave 2 decline into the target box, and over time.
Us30yr
$TLT bottom. Upside ahead targeting $100+As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today.
I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then.
I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming months.
I'm not a believer in the rates are going to stay higher for longer narrative. I do think they'll be higher than where we were in 2021, but I do not think they'll stay at 5+%. I think the financial system will end up being in trouble and the only out will be to bring down rates again. I do think that'll play out sometime in the next 6 months.
EURUSD: Bearish Bat with MACD Bearish DivergenceWe have an Intraday Bearish Bat on the Euro with Bearish PPO Confirmation and MACD Bearish Divergence.
Earlier today, the Euro Doubled Bottomed at $1.05 and has since been on the rise, but so far it has only managed to come back up towards the moving averages and move up to complete a Bearish Bat. Now it is showing multiple signs of coming back down, and if it does, I don't think $1.05 will hold but that it will instead break and make its way towards $1.035. I think we will continue this trend until the Euro Is Back Below A Dollar.
📚#e⏭️06 : Ultra Bond Futures Are Super Boring🥱💤Don't Click💡💫An Education🎓
Series Continuation
Prior Episodes Found
In The Content Below
❔ What Are Bonds
Bonds Are The Foundation
Of A Debt Based Monetary
System
Bonds Define The Cost Of
Money Over Time
Put Simply Bonds Are
Future Dollars
Read That Again🔂
US Treasury Bonds Are
Future US Dollars Deliverable
At A Specified Time
In The Future I.e
30 Years Henceforth
By Purchasing A
US Treasury Bond
You Enter Into A
Legal Contract With
The Treasury Wherein
You Will Receive
The Principle Or
"Face Value" Of The
Bond Plus The Rate
Of Interest Specified
At The Time Of Purchase
❔ A Traders Role
To Make Money I Hear You Say
Well Yes Of Course
But What Exactly As Bond Traders
Are We Getting Paid For ?
To Provide A Service
Our Collective Actions
Expressed Through The
Trading Of Bond Instruments
Determine The Cost Of Money
Yes💡
Regardless Of Your Trading
Size We Are All Interacting
With The Free Market
Our Role :
To Correctly
Price The Value
Of Future Money
When We Trade Bonds
Profitably
We Win The Game
We Have Kept The
Flame🔥
We Have Served
A Most Important
Mission
We Fulfill A
Founders Vision
d-MR96nBa
nvrBrkagn
❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds
Low Operation Costs
Regardless Of Trade Size
Only Pay Spread Fee
As Futures Contracts
Zero Overnight Cost To Carry
Quarterly Rollover Spread Only
Operation Costs Will
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On Time
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Same As Any Business
📔 Rules Of The Rodeo
Trend Is Dearest
Life-Long Friend
Bond Bull Market
40 Years Strong
So We Will
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Positions Actively
Managed
Entry Orders Executed
At The Market
Trading 0.01 Unit
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Starblazers 🌠
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CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
📚#e04 :
📚#e03 :
📚#e02 :
📚#e01 :
📚🎬💎#e08 : An Ultra Bond Future💍Married To The⛪💫An Education🎓
Series Continuation
Prior Episodes Found
In The Content Below
❔ What Are Bonds
Bonds Are The Foundation
Of A Debt Based Monetary
System
Bonds Define The Cost Of
Money Over Time
Put Simply Bonds Are
Future Dollars
Read That Again🔂
US Treasury Bonds Are
Future US Dollars Deliverable
At A Specified Time
In The Future I.e
30 Years Henceforth
By Purchasing A
US Treasury Bond
You Enter Into A
Legal Contract With
The Treasury Wherein
You Will Receive
The Principle Or
"Face Value" Of The
Bond Plus The Rate
Of Interest Specified
At The Time Of Purchase
❔ A Traders Role
To Make Money I Hear You Say
Well Yes Of Course
Money
But What Exactly As Bond Traders
Are We Getting Paid For ?
To Provide A Service
Our Collective Actions
Expressed Through The
Trading Of Bond Instruments
Determine The Cost Of Money
The Cost Of Money
Cost Of Money
Yes💡
Regardless Of Your Trading
Size We Are All Interacting
With The Free Market
Our Role :
To Correctly
Price The Value
Of Future Money
When We Trade Bonds
Profitably
We Win The Game
We Have Kept The
Flame🔥
We Have Served
A Most Important
Mission
We Fulfill A
Founders Vision💜
d-MR96nBa
nvrBrkagn
❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds
Low Operation Costs
Regardless Of Trade Size
Only Pay Spread Fee
As Futures Contracts
Zero Overnight Cost To Carry
Quarterly Rollover Spread Only
Operation Costs Will
Kill A Trader In Time
On Time
Every Time
Same As Any Business
Ventured
C4L
📔 Rules Of The Rodeo
Trend Is Dearest
Life-Long Friend
Bond Bull Market
40 Years Strong
So We Will
Mostly Trade Long
Positions Actively
Managed
Entry Orders Executed
At The Market
Trading 0.01 Unit
At A Time
Slow Drip💧
ℹ️ CME Group Official
Ultra Bond Trader Site
www.cmegroup.com
Keep Your Bond⚔️
Watch Your Loyalty⌚
Buy Freedom To🔥
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📚#e07🩸GG :
📚#e⏭️06 :
📚#e04 :
📚#e03 :
📚#e02 :
📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
Pluto 🛰️
Hndrxx 👩🏻🎤
📚#e03 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education🎓
Series Continuation
Prior Episodes Found
In The Content Below
Starblazers 🌠
Dreamscapers 🧙🏼♂️
Rebellion 🧗🏻♀️
Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery
Utilising The Instruments
Symbolising Our Servitude
Slaves Will Topple Masters
Behold.. The
Ultra Bond Future 🗽
US 30 Year Yields📊
📚#e02 :
📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
📚#e04 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education🎓
Series Continuation
Prior Episodes Found
In The Content Below
❔ What Are Bonds
Bonds Are The Foundation
Of A Debt Based Monetary
System
Bonds Define The Cost Of
Money Over Time
Put Simply Bonds Are
Future Dollars
Read That Again🔂
US Treasury Bonds Are
Future US Dollars Deliverable
At A Specified Time
In The Future I.e
30 Years Henceforth
By Purchasing A
US Treasury Bond
You Enter Into A
Legal Contract With
The Treasury Wherein
You Will Receive
The Principle Or
"Face Value" Of The
Bond Plus The Rate
Of Interest Specified
At The Time Of Purchase
❔ A Traders Role
To Make Money I Hear You Say
Well Yes Of Course
But What Exactly As Bond Traders
Are We Getting Paid For ?
To Provide A Service
Our Collective Actions
Expressed Through The
Trading Of Bond Instruments
Determine The Cost Of Money
Yes This Is True
Bet You Didn't Know That
Regardless Of Your Trading
Size We Are All Interacting
With The Free Market
Our Role Is To Correctly
Price The Cost Of Money
When We Trade Bonds
Profitably
Our Roles Are Fulfilled
❔ Why Else Ultra Bonds
Low Operation Costs
Only Pay Spread Fee
Regardless Of Trade Size
As Futures Contracts
Zero Overnight
Cost To Carry
Operation Costs Will
Kill A Trader Over Time
Same As Any Business
d-MR96nBa
nvrBrkagn
ℹ️ CME Group Official
Ultra Bond Trader Site
www.cmegroup.com
Starblazers 🌠
Dreamscapers 🧙🏼♂️
Rebellion 🧗🏻♀️
Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery
Utilising The Instruments
Symbolising Our Servitude
Slaves Will Topple Masters
Behold.. The
Ultra Bond Future 🗽
US 30 Year Yields📊
📚#e03 :
📚#e02 :
📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
📚#e02 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️💫An Education
Series Continuation
Episode One Found
In Content Below
Starblazers 🌠
Dreamscapers 🧙🏼♂️
Rebellion 🧗🏻♀️
Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery
Utilising The Instruments
Symbolising Our Servitude
Slaves Will Topple Masters
Behold.. The
Ultra Bond Future 🗽
US 30 Year Yields📊
📚#e01 :
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
📚#e01 : A Journey Of Inversion ♋ Bond Masters💰Of Us All ⚖️Starblazers 🌠
Dreamscapers 🧙🏼♂️
Rebellion 🧗🏻♀️
Join Me On A Journey Of Mastery
Utilising The Instruments
Symbolising Our Servitude
Slaves Will Topple Masters
Behold.. The
Ultra Bond Future 🗽
Just Going To Begin As
Perfection Is The Path 🧳
CBOT:UB1!
TVC:US30Y
AMEX:PFIX
TVC:MOVE
💡#i37 : Is Any One As ❤️🔥 For Bonds As I ? 🤓 💵 💰ULTRA U.S. TREASURY BOND FUTURES 🗽
What A Tremendous Name
Dripping With Imperial Greatness.
Bonds Are The Cornerstone Of
Our Debt Based Monetary System.
As Such, Correct Usage Of Bonds
Can Form The Cornerstone Of
A Diversified Personal Portfolio 📊
If You Call You're A Financier, 💸
You Must Understand The Bond 🤵🏻♂️
I'm Going To Approach This Idea
From 3 Unique Perspectives :
The Ultra Bond CBOT:UB1!
The 30 Year Yield TVC:US30Y
The US Dollar FX:USDOLLAR
Detailed Variants of Idea Charts Below 🖼️🎨
Trad-Fi's 40 Year Strong Chart of Truth 📉💡🧙🏻♀️Readers familiar with traditional financial world
will recognise the generational downtrend of
every interest rate (inverse of Bond prices) charts.
US 30 Year Bond Rates are set to go near zero before
the immortal rate Bear is final through.
TVC:US30
TVC:US30Y
NASDAQ:TLT
CBOT:UB1!
..an attempt to showcase the flatteningFlattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway.
↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support
↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a dangerous environment for equities and risk in general going into September.
↳ To the other side, buyers will need to break through 11th May highs to call for reassessment in the flattening view.
ridethepig | End Game in the Cycle📌 This diagram portrays the final stages in the economic cycle which I called in 2019. The position arose after Equities began extending beyond reality; all sellers needed was an intending cause.
The construct of the ingredients here are clear and simple, after Fed cleared the runway till 2022 you can see the risk coming out of bonds. Of course now it creates the "following subtle trap" where the belly of the curve begins to move towards the front end which then brings the 30Y with it.
It is worth pointing out where other countries in the world are as there is little divergence on the rates differentials now:
📍 Spain
📍 Singapore
📍 Canada
📍 UK
📍 Japan
📍 Germany
There is no reason why the US cannot see a retracement back to 0.9% / 0.8% levels ... Watch for the next dominos in Equities and Gold based on deep knowledge of the flows as we can call it. More risk to come.
On the fly...For those tracking the latest round of Fixed Income chart updates we have the final leg to the stool ahead right on time for NY. You will notice that on the back-end of the curve there is loud messages of a meaningful top being placed. The technical breakdown is indicating that we have another round of flattening towards key support at 32bps.
For the Chartpack today we have...
US 2s5s Curve :
US 2s10s Curve :
US 2s5s Curve:
The maps are crystal clear for US10Y Yields:
Highly recommend all those tracking Fixed Income to make note of the 2s5s10s and 2s5s30s " Fly " both breaking out with markets positioning ahead for 2020. Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking for the end of the cycle and Fixed Income.
US 30 YR YIELDHello everyone. Here is a trade idea on the 30 year Treasury yield. According to the weekly chart, there is a breakout of the inverted heads and shoulders of the 30 year yield.
Macro Thesis: The FED controls the short term interest rate, and the long term interest rates are determined by the supply and demand, meaning the buyers and sellers of the long bond. The last thing the FED wants is an inverted yield curve . IF this thesis is correct, the the 30 year bull run of the long bond might be ove r.
According to the chart, the 30 year yield has the potential to reach 4.2% according to the inverted heads and shoulders target. With the 30 year yield up, the 10 year yield will follow, and the FED will raise rates to the neutral target of above 3%. The trade has a reward to risk of 3.6, if the stop is placed near the right shoulder.
GOOD LUCK