Amazon delivers results for the first quarterAmazon announced its earnings for the first quarter of 2024 yesterday after the closing bell. The company reported net sales worth $143.3 billion, marking a 13% YoY increase, and net income of $10.4 billion, up 225% YoY. Operating income rose to $15.3 billion, representing a growth of 218% YoY, with the AWS segment contributing $9.4 billion to the figure and accounting for 62% of the total operating income. In addition, the company’s operating cash flow increased by 82% to $99.1 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $54.3 billion for the trailing twelve months ended by 31st March 2023. These results topped the estimates, and the company’s shares slightly soared in the aftermarket.
Net sales = $143.3 billion (13% YoY) vs. $127.4 billion in 1Q23
Net income = $10.4 billion (225% YoY) vs. $3.2 billion in 1Q23
Operating income = $15.3 billion (218% YoY) vs. $4.8 billion in 1Q23
Additional information:
Amazon sales in North America rose by 12% YoY.
International sales grew 9.6% YoY.
Sales within the AWS segment increased by 17% YoY.
Sales within Amazon’s advertisement unit grew by 24% YoY.
Forward guidance
Net sales for the second quarter of 2024 are expected to fall between $144 billion and $149 billion, representing a growth between 7% and 11% compared with the second quarter of 2023. Operating income is expected to be between $10 billion and $14 billion, compared with $7.7 billion in the second quarter of 2023.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Us500
Volatility will be put to the test this weekWhile volatility pulled back following a spike earlier this month, this week will put it back to the test with the FOMC meeting (on Tuesday and Wednesday) and economic releases throughout the week, including S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, nonfarm payrolls, participation rate, and unemployment rate.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bullish momentum picking upThe S&P 500 (US500) has made a bullish bounce off the pivot. Could this index continue climb higher towards the 1st resistance?
Pivot: 4,956.50
1st Support: 4,847.20
1st Resistance: 5,223.68
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
The market is growing emotionalYesterday’s financial print in the United States revealed a notable decrease in the GDP growth rate on a quarterly basis, coming down from 3.4% in 4Q23 to only 1.6% in 1Q24. This figure was well below market expectations of 2.5%, which spooked investors and led to a sudden drop across U.S. stock market indices. Nevertheless, by the market close, the SPX recovered all of its losses and staged a rally following the announcement of Alphabet and Microsoft’s earnings in the aftermarket. Both companies reported good results, seeing revenues and net income rise by significant percentages on an annual basis. Amid Alphabet’s plans to conduct a share buyback worth $70 billion and pay the first dividend ever to its investors, the company’s shares rose by more than 12%. Meanwhile, the reaction to Microsoft’s results was more subdued, with shares soaring slightly more than 2%.
However, despite stocks soaring after the closing bell, the continuous S&P 500 E-mini Futures showed that the price failed to break above the 20-day and the 50-day SMA, which just recently produced a bearish crossover; both of these moving averages continue to act as important resistance levels. In addition to that, although RSI, MACD, and Stochastic reversed to the upside on the daily chart (after the preceding weakness in stocks), they are not necessarily outright bullish yet. The overall picture is mixed.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 depicts the 1-minute chart of the ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures). Yellow arrows highlight the time of financial print release and earnings announcement.
Illustration 1.02
The illustration above shows the daily graph of the ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) and two simple moving averages, the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, a typically bearish sign. One interesting thing to note here is that despite the broader market rising after the big earnings announcement after the closing bell, the ES1! has not broken above the mentioned moving averages.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish (turning neutral)
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500 Is Bullish! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for US500.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5039.2.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5120.2.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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S&P500 Quick buy trade.The S&P500 is approaching the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) to test it as a Resistance for the first time after the April 15 bearish break-out. It has already broken above the Bearish Megaphone, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Up similar to the price action's and so far this sequence of events is fairly identical to the previous correction of August 2023.
That sequence almost touched the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before pulling back again, so we have ourselves a solid short-term bullish target. In fact we are placing ours a little lower at 5150, which represents a +4.70% rise from the bottom as that is not only the % rise that the August 2023 rebound returned but will also make contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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S&P Bears are strong but Bulls still have a chanceLast week, sellers firmly controlled the market. Buyers attempted to defend March's low, but the bears left them no chance. Prices consistently declined for six consecutive days, with the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) appearing even more bearish.
We are now approaching a critical juncture, which presents a significant opportunity for buyers to take a stand. The daily RSI is nearing an oversold condition, and simultaneously, the price is approaching the SMA100 alongside a horizontal support level ( 490 ) from the February consolidation.
There is no absolute certainty that buyers will seize this opportunity, but we should closely monitor the price action next week. Although sellers have demonstrated their strength, we are still in a weekly uptrend, and trends do not end easily unless there is a radical shift in sentiment. Despite negative news in recent weeks, nothing has emerged as critically detrimental yet. However, this could change, so we must regularly reassess the situation as new information becomes available.
The short-term outlook remains bearish, but this could change depending on how the price reacts to these support levels.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Earnings season produces wild movesAfter the closing bell on Tuesday, Tesla reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2024. Despite the report showing a 9% YoY decline in total revenue and a staggering 55% YoY drop in net income, along with an increase in operating costs by 37% YoY, shares of the company soared more than 12% in the aftermarket. The price action, however, was not the same for Meta Platforms, which delivered much better results yesterday, with revenue growing by 27% YoY, net income by 117% YoY, and operating costs by 6% YoY; yet, the company’s shares plummeted more than 15% following the announcement.
While trying to wrap our heads around these moves, we would like to point out the double divergence forming on the monthly graph between the price and RSI, shown in Illustration 1.01. In addition to that, we would want to highlight an impending bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA, both of which currently act as crucial resistance levels. If the SPX breaks and maintains ground above them, it will be positive, but if the SPX fails, it will be slightly worrisome. Besides that, another spike in the VIX will also be concerning. Today, there are several important data releases, including jobless claims, GDP growth rate, wholesale inventories, and pending home sales. Furthermore, several big names are reporting their earnings, most notably Alphabet and Microsoft.
Illustration 1.01
Above is the monthly chart of SPX and RSI. Yellow arrows indicate the first and the second divergence between the price and RSI.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 - Long opportunity ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on S&P500.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look only for long position. My point of interest is if price continue the retracement and then rejects trendline + S/R zone + FIBO 0.618 level.
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Big earnings this week could pave the way for a reboundThe S&P 500 Index has been edging lower for nearly a month, accompanied by a rise in volatility. From its all-time highs in late March 2024, the SPX has declined about 5.6%, which begs the question of a rebound. Interestingly, this week, several big names, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla, are reporting their earnings for the first quarter of 2024. If these results are generally good, then there is a significant chance that SPX will recover some of the losses. However, if earnings fail to fulfill investors’ expectations and there are notable downgrades to future forecasts, it could spark more fear among investors and rekindle volatility in the market.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily graph of SPX and two simple moving averages, the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. The yellow arrow indicates an impending bearish crossover between these two moving averages, which represent resistance levels to watch out for in the case of a stock market rebound.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500: 1D MA100 hit. Short term rebound at least to be expectedS&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.601, MACD = -44.800, ADX = 58.528) as it touched the 1D MA100 on Friday after more than 5 months. This calls for a short term rebound at least as every previous corrective wave inside the multi month Channel Up that approached the 1D MA100, it rebounded to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Following our last short call, we are now turning long again (TP = 5,115).
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S&P 500 set to advance after a bout of selling on FridayEfforts are underway to head off a full-blown Middle East war.
What’s Happening Now:
A tense calm prevailed in the Middle East after Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel. Global markets showed signs of stability on speculation the conflict will remain contained.
Iran said there wouldn’t be further attacks as long as Israel didn’t react aggressively, but Benjamin Netanyahu warned, “Whoever strikes Israel, we will strike him.”
A diplomatic race is underway to help ensure any retaliation doesn’t raise the stakes too high.
“It’s right to price more geopolitical risk premia into assets, but at the end of the day equity markets are still only about 2% off all-time highs,” said Timothy Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street. “This was a well-telegraphed geopolitical development. A lot of the bad news is in the price already.”
As we can see on the chart, the index is still trading in the tight diagonal canal which once broken a higher liquidity impulse can be expected. With the current situation of repricing rate cuts, higher inflation, and war tensions rising I am strongly expecting a quick 3-7% test to the previous lows.
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: Buy the dip or sell the rip?We move on from a week where strong momentum markets (AI names, NAS100, JPN225, Mexican peso) were sold down hard, with traders better buyers of the VIX, US30, gold, CHF, USD, and defensive equities (utilities).
Notably, the NAS100 recorded its worst week since November 2022, driven in part by market players part-liquidating an incredibly extended position in Nvidia, with 87m shares traded on Friday alone. Tesla and Super Micro Computers also seeing steep declines on the week, with Tesla remaining front and centre with Q124 earnings due after-market on Tuesday – many ask whether we see a fifth consecutive quarter where shares closed lower on the day of reporting?
Long US30 / short NAS100 positions have worked well and remain a tactical play I like into the new week - although with so many heavyweight tech names reporting through the week, NAS100 shorts will watch the reaction to earnings closely and will be prepared to react if the market likes what they see from the respective outlooks.
While sentiment has turned more negative, there is absolutely no panic at all and I’d to see if the buyer’s step in and support the S&P500 a little lower into 4935. That said, the price action and technical set-up suggests selling rallies in the US500 and NAS100 is the play – and if one is compelled to ‘buy dips’, then waiting for the rip after early traders buy the dip seems the higher probability play.
Geopolitical headlines remain fluid and have been a key reason for keeping buyers of risk at bay – many will remain focused on these developments as we roll into the new week. The news flow was certainly a key reason why gold closed higher for a fifth straight week and at a new all-time closing high on Friday, as it was why the CHF was the star currency on the week.
That said, with Brent crude closing the week 3.1% lower, one could argue it was the move higher in US bond yields – with the US 10yr Treasury pushing above 4.6% - that was really the big kicker that promoted rotation out of tech/AI names and supported the USD.
Short GBPUSD and long USDMXN on any retracement remains a compelling trade on my radar.
Watch US PCE inflation on Friday as the marquee risk on the data front – for a playbook, we could see outsized market moves on a US core PCE print above 0.4% m/m (USD up, gold, NAS100 down) or below 0.25% m/m (USD down, NAS100 and gold higher). A read above 0.4% m/m and the idea of a cut before the US Presidential election would be further dialled back.
There will be a focus on the BoJ meeting, but it is too soon for them to alter policy, and the market gives a change in rates no chance at all. If we get a move in the JPY, it will likely come from any changes to the bank’s inflation forecasts and the post-meeting conference call. We remain on JPY intervention watch, and signs that we are getting closer to the point where Japanese authorities look to step up the fight against JPY's weakness.
PMIs are due in the UK, EU, and US and they could move markets, notably if the service’s PMI outcome misses/beats expectations by a wide margin. Australia Q1 CPI poses a risk to AUD exposures, although, with such little priced into Aussie interest rate futures, it would need to big surprise to have a lasting effect on AUD pairs.
Bitcoin moves past the highly anticipated halving and while we predictably didn’t get any kneejerk reaction in price, the set-up on the higher timeframes is starting to look more compelling from the long side. There was clear support from the market to buy on the move below $60k and this is a level many are guiding for stops on longs. An upside break of $66k could be the trigger for a push into the top of the range of $72k.
Key event risk for traders to navigate:
Monday
• China 1 & 5-year Loan Prime Rate decision (11:15 AEST / 14:15 BST) – No change expected with the 1-year rate left at 3.45% and the 5-year rate at 3.95%.
Earnings – SAP (Germany) – one to watch for clients trading the GER40, with SAP holding a 10% weight on the index.
Central bank speeches – BoE’s Benjamin speaks (19:05 AEST / 10:05 BST)
Tuesday
• EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (18:00 AEST / 09:00 BST) – Service PMI eyed at 51.8 (from 51.5 in the prior read) & manufacturing at 46.5 (from 46.1)
• UK S&P manufacturing and services PMI (18:30 AEST / 09:30 BST) - Services at 53.0 (53.1) & manufacturing at 50.4 (50.3)
• US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23:45 AEST / 14:45 BST) - Services at 52.0 (51.7) & manufacturing at 52.0 (51.9)
Earnings – Tesla (after-market), Visa (after-market)
Central bank speeches – BoE Haskel (18:00 AEST), BoE Huw Pill (21:15 AEST), ECB Nagel (22:30 AEST)
Wednesday
• Australia Q1 CPI (11:30 AEST / 02:30 BST) – The economist consensus looks for headline CPI at 0.8% QoQ / 3.5% YoY (4.1%), and the trimmed mean CPI measure eyed at 3.8% YoY (from 4.2%). With Aussie interest rate futures pricing in just one rate cut in 2024, it would take a big beat/miss vs consensus to drive significant volatility in the AUD, with the AUD more sensitive to geopolitical headlines and broad market sentiment.
• Mexico Bi-weekly CPI (22:00 AEST / 13:00 BST) – the consensus is for headline CPI to come in at 4.49% (4.37%) and core CPI at 4.38% (4.41%)
Earnings – Lloyds (UK), Boeing (before-market), IBM (after-market), Meta (after-market)
Thursday
Anzac Day – ASX200 closed.
Earnings – Barclays (UK), Caterpillar (before-market), Alphabet (after-market), Intel (after-market), Microsoft (after-market)
Central bank speeches – ECB’s Schnabel speaks (00:00 AEST and 17:00 AEST)
Friday
• Tokyo CPI (09:30 AEST / 00:30 BST) – headline CPI is eyed at 2.5% (2.6%) and core CPI at 2.2% (2.4%) – shouldn’t be a volatility event for the JPY or JPN225
• Bank of Japan meeting with updated GDP and inflation forecasts (no set time but likely between 12:00 and 15:00 AEST / 03:00 to 06:00 BST) – no change in policy expected, so the focus falls on the bank's inflation projections and the post-meeting conference call.
• ECB 1- & 3-year CPI expectations (18:00 AEST / 09:00 BST)
• US core PCE inflation (22:30 AEST / 13:30 BST) – headline PCE inflation is expected at 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y (from 2.5%) and core PCE at 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y (2.8%).
Earnings – Exxon (Before market), Chevron
S&P weekly consolidation in progressAt the end of last week, sellers confirmed weekly consolidation by closing below the previous week's low. From now on, bears have control over the price on the weekly timeframe. We should monitor the progression of weekly lows and highs to see when things start to shift, but until then, we should trust the sellers.
It is also notable that if we look at the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), we can see that buyers were unable to close above the previous day's high for the last 10 trading days. If buyers want to regain control, this will be their first objective.
Please note that the price is currently positioned near the previous month's low, which can provide an intermediate support level. If you’re planning to short the market, it is better to wait for a pullback or for a breakout with retest.
Finally, if weekly consolidation will convert into monthly consolidation it will be a major win for bears.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Here is What to Know Beyond Why Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is a Trending
Despite short-term challenges like revenue and earnings declines in the current quarter, Pfizer (PFE) maintains a positive long-term growth trajectory. With optimistic earnings estimates for the full fiscal year, consistent EPS beats, and a discounted valuation relative to peers, Pfizer represents an attractive investment opportunity.
Trade Idea: Buy Pfizer (PFE)
Long-term growth potential remains strong despite short-term setbacks.
Positive earnings outlook for the full fiscal year indicates resilience.
Consistent EPS beats highlight Pfizer's ability to manage its bottom line effectively.
Discounted valuation compared to industry peers suggests potential for stock price appreciation.
Consider a medium to long-term investment horizon to capture Pfizer's growth prospects and maximize returns.
S&P500 Dead-cat-bounce before one last bottom?Our last call on the S&P500 (SPX) couldn't have gone better as the Bearish Megaphone pattern we expected (April 05, see chart below) was eventually materialized and easily hit on Tuesday our 5050 Target:
At the moment the index is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support since November 03 2023 and is headed towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) above which the last two main Bearish Legs of the 19-month Channel Up made their first Dead-cat-bounce (March 02 and August 18 2023).
As long as this dead-cat-bounce is contained below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, we see more likely one last corrective wave towards Support 1 and close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as at the time the 1D RSI is on its Support Zone, we will buy for the long-term and target the top of the 19-month Channel Up at 5400.
If the price breaks above the 0.786, we will have a pattern invalidation and buy the break-out instead, targeting again 5400.
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S&P500: First 4H Death Cross since August 14th 2023!S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we remain bearish until we complete at least a -5.87% decline (TP = 4,980). Observe how the symmetry among the two fractals is very strong, both the Death Cross and the 1D MA50 breakout were done around the same Fibonacci levels.
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S&P500(US500):🔴Is it Bearish...?!🔴(Details on caption)By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position.
In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR).
In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this sell-side is not purging I don't think about buy position.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️15/04/2024
🔎 DYOR
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Correction Continues
After quite a long consolidation within a wide horizontal range
on a daily, US100 index violated its support.
That violation is an important sign of strength of the sellers.
It may trigger a correction lower, at least to 17500.
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