SPX OUTLOOK 4h4H on SPX looks hella bearish. Insitutional orderflow looking great. I expect SPX to push lower.
What do you think?
Us500
US500 Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for US500.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 5238.4.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 5187.9 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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S&P500 Top formed on the 19 month Channel Up. Correction to 4950The S&P500 index hit yesterday the top of the 19 month Channel Up. That was the first time since it started trading.
This is a strong sell signal and considering that the MA50 (1d) has been intact since the November 3rd 2023 bullish break out, we expect to cross under it now.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4950 (-6.00%, 0.618 Fib and Support A).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1w) is posting the same sequence just under the Rising Resistance that it did during the July 27th 2023 High. An additional sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500 Upward Trend Still Intact"The S&P index continues its upward trajectory, defying expectations of contraction. Despite occasional fluctuations, the overall trend remains resolutely upward. Investor confidence appears unwavering, bolstered by strong economic indicators and corporate performance. This sustained growth signals stability in the financial markets, encouraging continued investment activity. Analysts attribute this resilience to a combination of factors, including fiscal policies, technological advancements, and global market dynamics.
Strong tailwind for equities?The S&P 500 (US500) is rising towards a potential breakout level at 5,256.42 which has been identified as a pivot point. Could price potentially break through this level and rise higher towards the 1st resistance?
Pivot: 5,256.42
Support: 5,185.97
Resistance: 5,361.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P: Bearish signals mount but buyers still have controlLast week began with a display of strong conviction from buyers, propelling price upwards towards the previous high (516.5). They managed to surpass it by a small margin, establishing a new historical high at 517.1. Unfortunately, bulls were unable to sustain momentum and build a new value zone, allowing bears to regain control and push price back towards the previous low.
All these developments signal daily uptrend exhaustion. Trend is close to reversal, but it is not there yet. Sellers must prove their strength by taking down the last week low (506,9). Until then it is still bulls market and buyers have control.
The outlook for the next week is neutral.
Long term Buyers should refrain from increasing position and consider (partial) profit taking. Sellers can try shorting the market but remember that odds are still slightly in favor of the opposite side.
Wednesday (20th) is an important day for the market as FED will announce interest rate decision.
P.S. for some reason weekly high on the daily chart doesn’t match weekly high on the weekly chart. I have reported this issue to TV support
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
S&P500 History may not repeat itself, but it does often rhyme.In the infamous words of Mark Twain, we are analyzing today the S&P500 index (SPX) on the long-term 1W time-frame. This is a cyclical perspective obviously, attempting to find similarities between past and present price action, in anticipation of projecting the trend in the near future.
As you can see, the index is replicating quite closely the 1W price action from June 2015 to (so far) March 2017. The 1W RSI Bullish Divergence led to a Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), then Rally 1 and first consolidation on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) before the Bull Flag (dotted Channel Down) that led to Rally 2. Based on the overbought 1W RSI, it appears that the index may entering a short-term pull-back period.
If it continues to follow that pattern this closely, don't expect that pull-back to be considerably greater than -3.15%. Technically if the 1W RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line), it will be time to start buying again for Rally 3.
By early 2025, it should be closer to the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, which gives us a rough target for our buying at 6500.
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The market is climbing a wall of worriesYesterday’s financial print in the United States revealed an uptick in inflation. For the second month of 2024, the inflation rate rose by 0.4% MoM (accelerating 0.1% from January 2024) and 3.2% YoY (accelerating 0.1% from January 2024). Meanwhile, the core inflation rose by 0.4% MoM (staying unchanged) and 3.8% YoY (showing a decrease of 0.1% versus the previous print). Considering the sticky inflation numbers, it appears very unlikely the FED will decide to cut interest rates next week during its two-day FOMC meeting. Furthermore, this problem raises questions over how fast the FED will actually proceed with easing monetary policy in the future; at the moment, it seems improbable the FED will lower interest rates before June 2024.
On a technical note, the bullish trend continues to lose momentum, and the SPX hovers overextended above the upward-sloping channel. On the daily time frame, the Stochastic oscillates in the overbought area, and MACD flattens. In addition to that, the RSI is forming a structure resembling a symmetrical triangle. Overall, the picture remains bullish, but the odds of a correction grow as the market climbs a wall of worry.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of the RSI, which has been forming a structure resembling a symmetrical triangle. A breakout to the upside will bolster a bullish case in the short term, while a breakout to the downside will strengthen a bearish case in the short term.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the VIX’s daily chart. So far, the lower trendline has not been broken (not distorting the structure of higher peaks and higher troughs).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500 Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 17h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5136.3.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5042.5.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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S&P500 Testing the 4H MA50. Rejection or bullish breakout again?The S&P500 (SPX) broke on Friday below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which isn't yet a bearish confirmation as it has done so numerous time within December's Channel Up pattern. What would be a sell signal though, is getting rejected and fail to close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50 again. We will then look for the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and target Support 1 at 5050, where the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level along with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will provide the first Zone of Support for the short-term.
If however the index does close a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, then the Channel Up pattern should continue and in that case we will buy and target 5185 (Resistance). Note though that the 4H RSI is trading within a Channel Down since the February 23 High, almost 1 month, which is a major Bearish Divergence against the price's Channel Up.
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A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Long event risk, short sleepThe markets will come alive this week reacting to the outcomes of an incredible array of tier 1 event risk, with some 14 central bank meetings, including six G10 central bank meetings, as well as numerous emerging market central banks too.
At a more micro level, Nvidia takes centre stage with the highly anticipated GPT conference a potential volatility driver for the AI juggernaut. We consider that the findings could impact the wider semiconductor space and even promote volatility across broad markets.
In the playbook, we break down what matters most in each event risk and what could drive market moves above all else, while offering trading thoughts on where the skew of risk resides.
This coming week there will be opportunities across markets, but more importantly, the ability to skillfully manage risk and assess correct position sizing will be where traders live to fight another day.
For a more detailed run-through of the week’s events, as well as analysis of the technical set-ups front of mind and the trades I am reviewing, join the livestream on TradingView on Monday at 1pm AEDT.
Good luck to all.
Key event risk for the radar this week
Nvidia GTC conference (18-21 March)
After a record 10 weeks of consecutive gains for Nvidia’s share price, investors get a chance to hear more about the future of generative AI, as well as new products in the pipeline and potential sales opportunities through the lens of the AI market leader. We hear from CEO Jensen Huang (on 18 March) and other key figures within the business. Expectations that the conference will hit the sweet spot are sky-high and the options market implies an -/+11.6% move in the share prices by Friday.
The importance of Nvidia to the broad US and even global equity market can’t be overstated and the read-through to semiconductors and the wider NAS100 is a real risk. AI has been the key equity theme for a while and will continue to be so, and Nvidia is at the epicentre of this. The prospect of a sell-on-fact scenario is a real risk.
Tencent – a key influence on the HK50 index, Tencent report earnings on 20 March with the options market implying a -/+3.8% move on the day of earnings. The HK50 index has formed a wedge pattern within a long-term bear channel – a set-up that needs monitoring – preference to chase strength should price break above 17,200.
FOMC meeting (21 March at 05:00 AEDT) and Chair Jay Powell’s press conference (05:30 AEDT)
What to focus on:
• The Fed won’t cut rates at this meeting and the guidance and overall tone will likely remain unchanged from prior commentary. US interest rate swaps price 75bp of cuts by year-end, so the FOMC statement, economic projection (SEPs) and Jay Powell’s press conference will need to reconcile against that pricing.
• The ‘dots’ are key – if 2 Fed members lift their projection for the fed funds rate in 2024 it will result in the median projection for the collective being reduced to 2 cuts (from 3) through 2024. Given market pricing for 75bp of cuts this year, a move towards 2 cuts for 2024 as the median ‘dot’ should cause US bond yields to spike higher, taking the USD higher and US equity and gold trade lower.
• The longer-term projection for the fed funds rate – or what is considered the ‘neutral rate’ for Fed policy - currently sits at 2.5% - could this be revised higher to 2.75%?
• If the Fed’s 2024 dot for 2024 remains at 4.6% (and for 3 rate cuts), but we also see an upgrade to the 2024 GDP forecast (currently 1.4%), we could feasibly see a relief rally in equity and gold and promote USD sellers.
Trader thoughts: The algo’s will be set to respond rapidly to the 2024 dot, as this is what matters above all else. A move to pencil in 2 rate cuts this year is not consensus but it is a real possibility and would likely see markets implied rate cuts by December 2024 reduced from 75bp to 60bp of implied cuts. This outcome would see the USD spike and see equity and gold trade lower. Conversely, if the 2024 ‘dot’ remains at 3 cuts, then we could see an immediate relief rally in risky assets and gold. The risk to markets seems balanced, so it seems prudent to reduce exposures over the FOMC meeting and look to react accordingly when the facts are known.
BoJ meeting (19 March – likely seen between 1pm and 4pm AEDT)
• Despite strong union wage increases on Friday, 29 of 31 economists see BoJ rates left at -0.1%, with a view that the BoJ send a strong signal they will hike rates in the April meeting. Market pricing, however, implies a 10bp hike at 50%, suggesting an elevated risk of JPY volatility over the meeting.
• We also look for changes to Yield Curve Control (YCC) and/or the pace of bond and ETF purchases.
Trader thoughts – Again, the algos will play a key role in determining initial market moves, and hedge funds will set them to respond squarely on whether we see a 10bp hike or not. While the broad market is short of JPY it feels that unless we see a 10bp hike and changes to the rate of JGB purchases then it will be hard to promote a material move higher in the JPY.
Swiss National Bank (21 March at 19:30 AEDT)
• The Swiss swaps market prices the chance of a 25bp cut at 30%
• 18 of 20 economists see interest rates unchanged at 1.75%
Trader thoughts – Two weeks ago the broad view was that the SNB could cut rates by 25bp, perhaps even by 50bp – now the broad consensus view is that the SNB leave policy unchanged at 1.75%. Given market pricing, the risk is we see a bigger move lower in the CHF on a 25bp cut, than any potential rally in the CHF should the SNB leaves policy unchanged. Short CHFJPY and Long USDCHF positions subsequently look attractive – although, as many traders will attest to, trading over news like this needs to be carefully considered and position sizing is of paramount importance.
Banxico (22 March at 06:00 AEDT)
• Mexican swaps price a 25bp cut at an 80% probability.
• 16 of 18 economists see a 25bp rate cut to get the overnight rate to 11%
Trader thoughts – With a 25bp cut - that commences a potential cutting cycle, largely priced by rates traders, a surprise outcome to leave rates unchanged could see USDMXN trade through 16.65 and into new cycle lows. Should the market get the expected 25bp cut we could see a move through 16.75, but the extent of the rally will be down to the statement and whether there is a strong appetite to cut again soon.
Bank of England (21 March at 23:00 AEDT)
• The BoE statement will likely be a low volatility event for the GBP, with the UK swaps market not pricing the first full 25bp cut until August. Look for a 7-1-1 split decision and a patient stance, with the BoE content with current market pricing on rate expectations.
Trader thoughts – I hold no real directional bias for the GBP from this meeting, so GBPUSD will likely take its direction from the UK CPI print and moves in the S&P500 and broad risk semantics. That said, the trend in GBPUSD skews risks to the downside, and I favour GBPUSD shorts, with stops above 1.2770.
RBA meeting (19 March at 14:30 AEDT)
• Aussie interest rate futures prices a zero probability of a cut at this meeting, with a full 25bp cut priced by September. We also see 38bp (or 1.5 25bp cuts) priced by December.
• The RBA statement will likely remain largely unchanged, guiding that “it will take some time before inflation is sustainably in the target range”, and “further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out”. While other central banks actively express a bias for rate cuts, it would be a shock to the market if the RBA opened the door to cuts in this statement.
Trader thoughts – the RBA meeting will likely be a low-volatility affair, and AUDUSD is likely to take its direction this week from the FOMC meeting, as well as iron ore, copper, and Chinese equities. A break of 0.6550 may see the early March lows of 0.6477 revisited, although this would be unlikely unless the VIX index trades into 17% and we see broad de-risking through broad markets.
Norges (Norway) Bank (21 March at 20:00 AEDT) – the market implies a zero probability of a change in Norwegian interest rates at this meeting, with the first 25bp cut not fully priced until September. I am biased for USDNOK to push towards the top of the range at 10.70.
China PBoC 1 & 5-year Prime rate (20 March at 12:15 AEDT) – after a larger-than-expected cut last month to the prime rate (the benchmark rate that households and businesses can borrow from commercial banks), the PBoC are unlikely to cut the prime rate again this time around. A surprise cut would therefore likely see Chinese/HK equities rally.
Colombia central bank (23 March at 05:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for rates to be cut by 50bp to 12.25%. Will this forum be the catalyst to see USDCOP break out of the tight trading range the pair has held throughout 2024?
Brazil central bank (21 March at 08:30 AEDT) – the overwhelming consensus is that we see the Selic (interest) rate cut by 50bp cut to 10.75%.
Other key economic data points of note – China retail sales/industrial production/property sales (18 March), Canada CPI (19 March), UK CPI (20 March), Australia employment report (21 March), EU manufacturing and services PMI (21 March).
S&P500 Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a selling opportunity around 5130 zone, US500 was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 5130 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
S&P still bullish but first warning signs The last week kicked off with bears challenging the previous week's low (505), coming close to success. Bulls stepped in, mounting a strong defense and steering prices back to a historical high. It might have been a convincing victory if only they could have sustained it until Friday's closure, but that didn't materialize. Friday concluded on a bearish note, closing even below the previous week's end (512,85). This signal alone isn't enough to confirm a trend reversal thesis but from now we should now keep a closer eye out for any emerging bearish signs.
The outlook for the next week is mildly bullish. Long term Buyers should refrain from increasing position and maybe consider (partial) profit taking. Day traders can explore opportunities on both sides within the range of the previous week with some preference to LONGs
Stay alert for potential volatility on Tuesday as PMI data is scheduled for release.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
US500 Will Move Higher! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for US500.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 5154.2.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 5171.8 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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US500 Trade Idea - VideoConcerning the earlier shared trade idea on the US500 (S&P 500 index), this video expounds on the rationale underpinning the consideration of this potential trade setup.
Analyzing the 1-hour chart for the S&P 500, the price has been exhibiting an upward trajectory. We can discern the formation of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a prospective US500 bullish trend, however beware the double top and strong sell off. Im anticipating a move back up to rebalance and we could see further downside so approach this with caution and good risk management. The strategy involves identifying an opportune long entry point during the retracement, with the aim of capitalizing on the previous high levels, as highlighted by the chart markup. It is crucial to note that this information is solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
US500 Trade IdeaAnalyzing the 1-hour chart for the S&P 500, the price has been exhibiting an upward trajectory. We can discern the formation of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a prospective US500 bullish trend, however beware the double top and strong sell off. Im anticipating a move back up to rebalance and we could see further downside so approach this with caution and good risk management. The strategy involves identifying an opportune long entry point during the retracement, with the aim of capitalizing on the previous high levels, as highlighted by the chart markup. It is crucial to note that this information is solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
S&P Sector rotationPut together information on what is happening in major S&P sectors
Majority of sectors are strong on the daily chart. There are some short-term problems on lower timeframe but they can be overcome.
This is good for buyers as it shows that money is not leaving the market but moving from one sector to another. A lot will depend on tech bulls. XLK must clear 212 resistance to help market move higher.
You can find my market overview here
AMEX:XLK AMEX:XLV AMEX:XLF AMEX:XLY AMEX:XLC AMEX:XLI AMEX:XLP AMEX:XLE
S&P500 Overbought. Relief correction very probable.The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading at the top of the 17-month Channel Up with the 1W RSI overbought and at its highest (78.00) in more than 4 years (since January 2020). Once it breaks below its MA level (yellow trend-line), it will be a sell confirmation, which is the signal that flashed on February 20 2023 and July 31 2023.
The minimum decline within this Channel Up pattern has been -5.84%, so our sell target is 4900. Then we will start buying again and if it drops more (i.e. below Support 1), we will reserve our last buy entry on Support 2 at 4665, which will still be marginally above the maximum decline of -10.96% and still within the Channel Up.
After the correction, at any point the 1W RSI breaks above its MA again, it will be a bullish break-out signal.
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S&P500 This is the end of the 5 month Bullish Leg.S&P500 / US500 is approaching the top of a Fibonacci Channel Up that goes back all the way to August 2022.
The 1day MA50 has been in firm support since November 3rd 2023 but as the 1day RSI is squeezed inside a Triangle pattern, a break out is inevitable.
This is technically more likely to be to the downside due to this overbought multi month momentum near the top of the Channel.
Sell and target 4950 (Support A, 0.382 Channel Fib and -6.00% from the top).
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Tight Channel Up calls for buying unless it breaks.S&P500 is trading inside a narrow Channel Up pattern.
As long as the price stays inside, we remain bullish on the index.
The ralies inside it have been quite symmetric as well.
The MA50 (1d) has been supporting this strong bullish trend since November 03 2023.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the price remains inside the Channel Up.
2. Sell if it breaks below it (Support 1 in play).
Targets:
1. 5260 (+ 4.34% symmetric bullish leg).
2. 4920 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is inside a Triangle pattern. Either direction it breaks to, it will be an early trend signal, so keep an eye.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Indices:🔴Is it the major market structure shift?🔴
Well As you can see, we can see the SMT here so we can expect a downtrend.
The first condition is, that we see the price close the candle body below the bullish FVG, only then can we expect the price to go lower to collect the sell-side liquidity.
After that, If the first condition occurs, we need the candle closure below the sell side liquidity, then the price activates the bearish breaker block and the breaker can act as a strong resistance and pull the price down.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️10/03/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
What's going on with all the revisions? Month after month, the United States has been reporting strong labor market conditions and lots of new jobs being created. However, revisions to past data are often less talked about in the media, which might tell a somewhat different story than headline numbers at the time of their announcement. Friday’s report shows that nonfarm payrolls rose by 275,000 in February 2024; meanwhile, gains for December 2023 and January 2024 were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. This follows a streak of similar revisions to the previously reported data. For example, combined job gains for October 2023 and November 2023 were revised down by 71,000 jobs. Further, the combined data for August 2023 and September 2023 were revised down by 101,000 jobs. But that’s not where all the revisions end. The list goes on, with combined jobs gained for June 2023 and July 2023 revised down by 110,000 and combined data for April 2023 and May 2023 by the same figure of 110,000 jobs. Similarly, the data for the first three months of 2023 were also revised lower by 162,000 jobs. Consequently, about 721,000 fewer jobs were created than initially reported between January 2023 and January 2024.
Illustration 1.01
The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 3.9% in February 2024, reaching the highest level since January 2022. Historically, in the past 70 years, every 1% rise (from lows) in unemployment was accompanied by a recession.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500 4 Hours Chart AnalysiaRising Wedge Created On 4HR Chart
Bearish Reversal on the Horizon?
The US500 has formed a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential bearish reversal. This pattern, characterized by converging trendlines with a steeper support line, suggests that upward momentum is waning.
Key Observations:
Upward Trend : The pattern has developed during an uptrend, indicating exhaustion of the bullish momentum.
Converging Trendlines: The resistance and support lines are sloping upwards, coming to a point of convergence.
Volume: A declining volume trend accompanies the pattern, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Breakout Watch: A decisive break below the support trendline could confirm the reversal, offering a short entry opportunity.
Trade Strategy:
Entry : Look for a clear break below the support trendline with increased volume as confirmation.
Stop Loss: Set above the last swing high within the wedge.
Take Profit: Measure the height of the wedge at its widest part and project this distance from the breakout point for a potential target.
Risk Management:
Monitor for false breakouts and adjust positions accordingly.
Keep an eye on broader market sentiment and news that may impact the index.
Trade with caution and ensure proper risk management protocols are in place.
This trade idea is based on technical patterns and should be used as part of a comprehensive trading plan. Always consider the risk associated with trading financial instruments.
