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Us500

S&P500: Last pump before a correction.S&P500 is on healthy bullish technicals both on the 4H (RSI = 63.806, MACD = 7.990, ADX = 31.789) as well as the 1D (RSI = 64.592) timeframes as it keeps rising inside a six week Channel Up. According to the last HH wave we are expecting a top on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. If that's coupled with the 4H RSI hitting the top of its Rectangle, we will short the market at that level and target the Channel's bottom and the S1 level (TP = 4,920). As long as the 4H MA200 holds, it will be a buy entry. If crossed, then the bullish pattern is negated and we will short again, aiming for the S3 level (TP = 4,715) and a potential contact with the 1D MA100. It will be almost a -8.00% correction, a healthy pullback on the 1D scale. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
3
A soft landing turning into the shallow recession, and into...Following the release of worse-than-expected inflation data in the United States, the volatility jumped by an astounding 26%, and major stock market indices turned lower. Then, yesterday, the situation quickly cooled down, and indices erased much of the post-release losses. In the process, the SPX returned above the critical level of $5,000, and the VIX dropped by approximately 9%. Today, new data releases are due, including jobless claims, retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing production, and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. As many of these releases are expected to be in negative territory (on a monthly basis), the question is whether bad data will be good enough for the markets to continue higher. While the answer to this question is unknown, bad data will mean an economic slowdown (which is becoming increasingly apparent in all parts of the Western world). There is pretty much no growth in Europe, with many countries fighting higher inflation rates than that in the United States. At the same time, many of those same countries are experiencing a “soft landing,” seemingly a new term for a shallow recession. But as the narrative changes from that of no recession to a soft landing and then to a shallow recession, another question arises: How long until a medium recession in Europe and a shallow recession in the United States? Well, the answer is again highly speculative, but judging by reaccelerating inflation (in the USA as well as in Europe) and rate cuts being off the table in the United States, one could make an argument that the odds of such progression are increasing. Illustration 1.01 On Tuesday, the SPX formed an opening gap that has not been filled yet. If the price fails to close the gap today or tomorrow, it will be concerning. Illustration 1.02 One of the much talked about topics in the news is the troubled commercial real estate sector in the United States, which saw the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans soar by more than 67% between 3Q22 and 3Q23. Meanwhile, the delinquency rate on credit card loans is up by approximately 43% in the same period (but up by 92% since 3Q21); the delinquency rate on all loans went up by about 11% between 3Q22 and 3Q23. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
9
Nvidia Q424 preview – this needs to be on everyone risk radar Whether trading equity, equity indices or even FX, Nvidia’s Q424 earnings (due after-market on 21 Feb) should be firmly on the risk radar. Markets could come alive with movement and traders may need to dynamically react. How the Nvidia share price reacts immediately after its earnings results and CEO Jensen Huang’s guidance could have far-reaching implications - not just for those holding exposures in Nvidia equity CFDs - but for those with open positions in NAS100 and US500, and even risk FX, such as AUD, NZD, and NOK. Nvidia is a true market darling – it hits the sweet spot in A.I revolution, which may not be a completely new theme, but given the sheer rate of change in the evolution market participants still have very low conviction when it comes to forecasting future cash flows. This inability to price certainty only increases the volatility. Looking at consensus expectations on sales, margins, and earnings may not prove to be overly worthwhile, given fundamentals mean little for what is essentially a pure momentum vehicle like Nvidia. It’s the commentary and guidance and the tone of the outlook that inspires investors, notably around its long-term data centre sales. We can explicate how the business is likely tracking from recent earnings numbers from the likes of AMD, SMCI and TSMC, and given the strong trends we’ve seen of late can assume sales are growing at a solid clip. Options structures price big moves on earnings If we look at the options market, the implied or expected move for the day of reporting sits at an impressive -/+11%. That level of implied volatility could indeed be mispriced, but an -/+11% move for a company with a $1.83t market cap would be staggering. When we consider that Nvidia has the fourth largest weight on both the S&P500 and NAS100, commanding a 4% and 5% weighting on each index respectively, an -/+11% move could have significant implications – especially if the move in Nvidia’s share price spreads into other A.I and mega-cap tech names, which it most probably would. Should we see a move in US equity futures it would likely impact the USD and risk FX, such as the AUD, NZD, or NOK. Staying in the options space, we see that Nvidia’s 1-week call options (10% out-of-the-money) currently commands an implied volatility of 100.8%, a clear premium over 1-week put options (with strikes 10% out of the money) at 85%. This is rare, as put option implied vol is typically higher than calls, given the increased relative demand to use put options to hedge against equity drawdown. We also see that 9 of the top 10 most traded options strikes recently (expiring on 23 Feb) are traders buying call options, which just adds to the view that equity traders are positioning portfolios for higher levels and remain incredibly bullish on their near-term prospects. The bottom line – Nvidia’s share price is not being driven by fundamentals – valuation matters little – it is all order flows and momentum. What matters to traders here is that the market expects a huge move on the day of earnings, and this could send ripples through broader markets. This creates opportunity but it also is a risk for traders that needs to be managed – put Nvidia on the risk radar.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Pepperstone
8
A low volatility tends to precede high volatilityThe major U.S. stock market indices are trading in the negative territory ahead of the release of inflation data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A hotter-than-expected print is likely to produce a pop in volatility and convince central bankers in Washington to keep monetary conditions tight during the upcoming meeting in March. Consequently, we pay close attention to the VIX index, which has been testing the resistance at $14.49 since the start of the year. In addition to that, we watch a concerning relationship between the declining volume and the increasing price. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows a concerning relationship between the rising price and the declining volume. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily graph of the VIX. The yellow arrow indicates yesterday’s opening gap. One notable thing about the VIX is that it has been trading below $15.50 for 92 trading sessions. To find a similar low-volatility period, one would have to go back to late 2017/early 2018 (shortly before the massive spike in volatility and market selloff). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
3
US500 Is Going Down! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for US500. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5026.1. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 4952.0 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by SignalProvider
3
S&P500 +10year cheatsheet tells you what to do next!On this analysis we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) from a very long-term angle, the 1W time-frame going back more than 13 years, since November 2010. That was when the first Megaphone pattern emerged since the 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing (sub-prime) crisis that after testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) it found Support and transitioned into a Channel Up. This is a similar pattern that we are at since the previous 2021 market All Time High (ATH) that led to the 2022 Inflation Bear Cycle. In fact since 2009 there have been (including 2022) 4 such cyclical patterns in total and another common characteristic has been that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the Support throughout the uptrend. In our recent pattern, that was tested in October 2023, held, and gave rise to the enormous November - February rally. That turned the 1W RSI overbought above 70.00 for the first time since July 24 2023, which caused the 3-month pull-back. In fact, when the 1W RSI broke that high into overbought territory during the previous 3 Cycles, SPX at best consolidated if not pull-back for 4-6 weeks. In any case, this +10 year 'Cheatsheet' is telling you that as long as the 1W MA50 holds (which is considerably lower), the next 4 weeks at least are a buy opportunity, at least once the index hits the 1D MA50 again. And of course the upside, in a year of expected rate cuts and U.S. Presidential elections, is significant not just purely from a technical point of view. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3
US100 17486.5 +0.34 % SHORT IDEA MTF 🐻🐻🐻HELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 🛑 A look at NASDAQ ahead of the day 📌 NASDAQ 4H TF * Looking at US100 from the 4H we see a break above BSL * FULL BODY closure above possibly signaling continuation. * If we see momentum back into the range i would be looking for shorts. * But for now NASDAQ is signalling some strong BULLISH momentum. * Especially because of that body closure. US 100 1H TF * On the 1h alike, strong bullish momentum in play. * Retracement into some of the internal LIQUIDITY possible. * looking for some retracement into PD ARRAYS ( FVG + OB) * & should they hold looking for continuations with the bulls. NASDAQ 15 M TF * ASIAN highs taken * Possibly signaling a bullish NY * TRADE IDEA 1. london open - short setup for asian lows 2. long set-ups NY session. HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOURS BELOW🛑 lets see how it goes. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by PULEMokhothu
12
US500 Will Move Higher! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 4939.4. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5100.0 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by SignalProvider
4
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.When we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on our November 07 2023 analysis (see chart below) we compared it with the S&P500 index (SPX) : The S&P500 has reached the top of its Channel Up, while the VIX bottomed and is consolidating on a price action that is very similar to the July 27 2023 Low, which was the former Higher High of the S&P500 Channel Up. Today we plot both VIX and the S&P500 on the same chart and not side by side. As you can see VIX's 1D RSI has bottomed and is rising within a Bullish Megaphone, indicating that the price has already bottomed, which is a Lower Low on the Channel Down pattern it has been trading within since the September 28 2022 High (which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets). The SPX is illustrated by the thin black trend-line and being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa. Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day. VIX's bottom and rise though above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the Bullish Megaphone we just mentioned above, is an indication that the SPX has topped, similar to the February 02 2023 and July 27 2023 Highs, which where Lows for VIX's Channel Down. The chart clearly shows that VIX has just started its own (dashed) Bullish Megaphone (has always done so a little after the RSI Bullish Megaphone) and that was been the start of the S&P500 decline during the Higher Highs we mentioned. As a result, we expect VIX's volatility to apply high pressure on the stock market in the next 4-6 weeks, which should technically bottom and turn into a buy opportunity again only after VIX closes a 1D candle below both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as it did on November 02 and March 28 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
4
US500 M15 / Expecting a rise until the price of 5000 💲Hello traders! This is my idea related to the US500 M15. The sellers' sentiment is still strong, and I expect a new ATH until the price of 5000 after that, I will look for a shot trade entry. It represents a good opportunity to look for a long trade entry. Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective. ____________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by GoodTradeST
S&P500 Bearish Divergence on 1D RSI points to a correction.The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom. This development is a strong sell signal on its own but it gets even stronger as the 1D RSI has been within a Channel Down since December 19, while the price was rising within a Channel Up, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. The very same Bearish Divergence that led to the July 27 2023 Higher High and was followed by a 3-month almost -11.00% correction. The first wave of that correction was -5.84% and has been the minimum correction range in 2023, settling just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result that minimum will be our target and its at 4700, as we may see a bullish reaction going closer to the mid-March Fed Rate Decision (in expectations of rate cuts). Technically though, we can see a longer correctional wave to -9.26% (like the Bearish Leg that bottomed on March 13 2023) that could test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), or even almost -11.00% (like the one that bottomed on October 27 2023). Notice how each of those potential correction targets are conveniently placed around key Support or Fibonacci retracement levels. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
2
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: Don’t fight the USD trend We move past an important week for markets, one where a one-two punch from Jay Powell’s FOMC presser and a very strong nonfarm payrolls report have essentially closed the door on a March rate cut. With US economic exceptionalism coming back into the narrative, we see this play out in the bond market with the US 2-year Treasury pushing back to the top of the range at 4.36%, with yield rising faster than its G10 counterparts. The USD has found some fine form in a backdrop of US rate expectations repricing and US yield premium working in its favour, and we see the DXY closing higher for a fifth consecutive week. We have seen some big technical breaks in the USD pairs and the upside would likely have been even more pronounced had we not seen the S&P500 push to new highs and the VIX index remain below 14%. With the yield premium commanded for US 2yr Treasury over German 2yr bonds rising to 180bp we’ve seen EURUSD close at new run lows in the trend that started on 11 Jan – we see price testing the channel lows, subsequently longs need a bounce here or we risk testing the 8 Dec pivot low of 1.0723. While much of the USD flow has been driven by US rates repricing (notably with SOFR futures Dec23 – Dec 24) rising to -131bp, the prospect of a further widening of US-GE yields spreads seems likely and therefore further downside in EURUSD could be a theme this week. The NOK was the weakest play in G10 FX last week, with a weaker Brent tape part impacting here – flick to the daily chart of SpotBrent and we see the series of higher lows from the 13 Dec breaking down and price pulling into the heavy congestion zone – consolidation may be on the cards but further weakness in crude would likely weigh on the NOK. NZDUSD is also of note having completed a bear flag pattern, with the flow arguing for a continuation towards 0.5900. AUDUSD has completed a head and shoulders reversal, offering a target towards 0.6250. USDJPY eyes a test of the January highs, where a break of 148.81 would suggest a move to 150 is on the cards. Gold ended a run of consecutive days higher on Friday but the set-up on the higher timeframes remains choppy – that said, a renewed push higher in both the USD and US real rates this week and $2k could easily be on the cards. We can look at US 10yr real rates (i.e. the 10yr US Treasury minus 10yr expected inflation) on TradingView (code: TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE), and a break of 1.90% should put 2% back on the table. On the equity front, the ASX200 was a stellar performer last week and will be a key focal point this week with ASX200 1H24 earnings starting to trickle in and the RBA statement also in focus. The US500 and US30 also performed well and pushed to new highs – pullbacks are tight in this bull market and while it remains hard to put new money to work on the long side up here, shorting for those who are not scalpers or day traders remains a low probability outcome at this stage. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate: Tuesday US ISM services report (02:00 AEDT) – The market looks for the services index to come in at 52.0 (from 50.6), once again showing resilience in the US service sector. Solid expansion (i.e. a reading above 50 shows expansion from the prior month) should further price out the chance of a 25bp cut in the March FOMC and support USD upside. The ‘SLOOS’ report - US Senior Loan Officers Survey on bank lending practices (06:00 AEDT) – with US regional bank concerns in the spotlight this report on bank lending standards may get some focus from the market. Japan nominal and real cash earnings (10:30 AEDT) – After a weak read in the November data, economists expect some improvement in real wages. Although should it come out as expected at -1.5%, it will further delay calls for the BoJ to move away from negative rates. RBA meeting & Statement on Monetary policy (both 14:30 AEDT) – The start of a new regime of communication for the RBA with the bank releasing its quarterly economic projections and Gov Bullock following the statement with a press conference. The RBA won’t cut interest rates at this meeting but should move to a move balanced statement. The move in the AUD will come from the tone of the statement relative to pricing in the interest rates curve. See my preview here - pepperstone.com RBA Gov Bullock speaks (15:30 AEDT) – Following on from the RBA statement Gov Bullock’s comments could impact AUD, especially given she will be probed on some key issue in the presser – a clear risk event for AUD exposures. ECB 1- & 3-year CPI expectations (20:00 AEDT) – there is no consensus to work off here, but there should be downside risks to the prior estimate of 3.2% (1yr) and 2.2% (3yr). Notably, look for the 1-year CPI expectations to be revised to 3.1%, possibly even 3%. Wednesday NZ Q4 employment report & wages (08:45 AEDT) – the market looks for the Q4 U/E rate to rise to 4.3% (from 3.9%) – a higher unemployment rate will solidify the case for the RBNZ to cut at the May meeting. Favour NZDUSD downside this week given the current technical set-up. Thursday Mexico CPI (23:00 AEDT) – The consensus is we see headline CPI at 0.90% MoM, taking the year-on-year pace to 4.89% yoy (from 4.66%). Core CPI is eyed lower though with calls for 4.72% from 5.09%), but perhaps not substantial enough to see Banxico cut the overnight rate from 11.25%. No firm bias on USDMXN, but I look for EURMXN downside. China CPI/PPI (12:30 AEDT) – The market looks for China’s consumer prices to fall 0.5% in January marking the fourth consecutive month of deflation. Producer price inflation is expected to fall 2.6% (from -2.5%). It’s unlikely to be a volatility event for markets but it could reinforce the notion that internal demand is soft and that the PBoC has scope to do more. Friday Banxico meeting (06:00 AEDT) – the Mex CPI print (due on Thursday) may alter expectations for a cut, but the core view from economists is that rates should remain at 11.25%, although there is a small risk of a 25bp cut. Mexican forward rates price 181bp of cuts over the coming 12 months, with March the likely date of a cut. China new yuan loans and aggregate financing (no set time through the week) – this data can be important for Chinese markets, and notably this time around we see expectations for a big increase in credit extension in January. The market looks for new yuan loans to come in at RMB4.5t in Jan, which if correct would be the second largest monthly credit extension ever. US CPI revisions – Each year the Bureau of Labor Statistics tweak the weightings of the inputs that feed into the CPI calculation, which can affect prior seasonally adjusted prints. It won’t be a volatility event, but economists will be looking out to see how the new weights impact the future trajectory for inflation expectations. Canada employment report (Sat 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for 15k net jobs to have been created in January, with the unemployment rate eyed to tick up to 5.9%. The market has pared back expectations of imminent easing with June now seen as the most likely month for a 25bp cut from the BoC – a weak employment report could see that pricing brought forward. The CAD has been a solid performer in G10 FX of late, notably vs the AUD and NZD, and I am seeing a higher probability of further downside momentum in NZDCAD. Other event risks that could impact sentiment: China Lunar New Year (Friday) Fed speakers – this week we hear from 14 Fed members. BoE speakers – Huw Pill (6 Feb 04:30 AEDT), Breedon (7 Feb 19:40 AEDT), Catherine Mann (9 Feb 02:00 AEDT). ECB speakers – Wunsch, Lane (9 Feb 02:30 AEDT), Nagel (9 Feb 21:30 AEDT), Cipollone (10 Feb 01:15 AEDT) US earnings – we move past the marquee week for US earnings, and the big market cap names have hit us with numbers, so bottom-up factors will fade, and the macro will fully dictate sentiment once again. 46% of S&P500 companies have now reported, 78% of beaten on the EPS line (by an average of 7.1%), with 53% beating consensus sales expectations. We’ve seen 4% aggregate EPS growth. This week 10% of the S&P500 market report – McDonald’s and Caterpillar are a couple that may get a focus from traders. ASX200 earnings – ASX200 1H24 earnings start to trickle in with names like Amcor, Mirvac, Transurban, AGL and REA due to report. CBA report on 14 Feb.
CME:SR3Z2023Long
by Pepperstone
S&P500: Channel Up topped. Correction possible.S&P500 is only a few points away from hitting the HL trendline of the long term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 Low). That would be the second time to test the patterns absolute Top. The 1D technical outlook is on standard bullish levels (RSI = 67.767, MACD = 49.570, ADX = 38.770) but the 1D RSI in particular has formed the very same pattern it did during the July 2022, January 2023 and December 2022 Channel Up Highs. Consequently we have all the technical evidence we need for a 1 month at least short. The first Support is the 1D MA50 but in order to keep the long term uptrend on sustainable levels, it would be better to approach the 1D MA200. We expect the pullback to almost hit the 1D MA200 and touch at least the 0.382 Fibonacci of the Channel (TP = 4,600). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
SPX might be getting ready to revisit the channel's lower boundUnsurprisingly, yesterday’s FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the monetary policy. Then, during the press conference, Jerome Powell discussed the resilient economy, strong labor market, and persistent challenges to taming inflation. At some point during his speech, the stock market erased its losses and entered a green territory. However, this optimism lasted very shortly until the FED’s chairman suggested that central bankers had not reached enough confidence to start easing the monetary conditions, making a rate cut in March 2024 seem unlikely. As a result, the “higher for longer” theme is to stay with us and continue to exert pressure on the economy (plus, it is highly possible that we have not even seen the full effects of previous rate hikes on the economy due to the lag). With that said, our attention will be paid to today’s and tomorrow’s releases, particularly S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, participation rate, and payrolls. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily graph of the SPX and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.02 The image above shows the daily chart of VIX, which has stopped making lower lows and has been testing the resistance at $14.49 since late December 2023. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
2
$4,900 a historic momentYesterday, the SPX closed above $4,900 for the first time in history. Now, the question is, can it close above this level for multiple consecutive days? If yes, it will be positive for the index. However, a breakdown below $4,900 will be slightly concerning. Similarly concerning will be if RSI, MACD, and Stochastic start reversing to the downside on the daily graph. As a result, we will keep monitoring the situation and update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX and simple support/resistance levels. Illustration 1.02 While waiting to see what path the SPX will take, we want to note that investors’ confidence seems to be eroding in the Chinese markets despite the announcement of new stimulus measures in the last two weeks. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Its purpose is purely educational.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
1
SPX500 - BULLISH OR BULLISH? (TARGET 4910 AND BEYOND)A bit of a late post as the market is moving faster than my fingers can type but let's see how relevant this is regardless. Here is what I see: What is on the chart? (follow the steps) 1) A strong price accumulation that gives us a potential liquidity target for later on! For now bullish until said otherwise. 2) The BOS level that serves as support. 3) The formation of a trendline which is bullish. 4) Our 1 Hour bearish FVG that may stunt price temporarily. Hence my trajectory leading downwards first! 5) ( NOW ) An accumulation structure that may propel price or lead it lower to our GOLDEN LEVEL! 6) The entry of the Gods. Yes, I am very enthusiastic but if I were to enter, it is here. We have an FVG + fib reload zone + trendline + hourly Kumo. I mean what else does a trader need? A crystal ball? No. 7) The final target. If we're bullish, what better than an ATH as a target? As always, stay cold headed (unlike myself because when I see such a beautiful confluence of entry conditions, I just get excited) and happy trading! ;)
FX:SPX500Long
by Lexi_Is_Trading
A Traders’ Playbook – the week that has everythingWe move past a busy week in markets and onto an even busier one, littered with potential landmines for traders to navigate. One key theme which has legs this week are moves in Chinese markets – notably, China went after short sellers with several targeted measures. We also saw a 50bp cut to banks RRR amid reports of an RMB2t package for offshore SOE to buy Chinese equities – that said, with big inflows into mainland funds, the HK50 and CSI 300 managed an unimpressive 4.2% and 2% weekly gain respectively. Judging by price action in the HK50 market players seem unsure about building on the move from 15k, and Fridays inside bar needs to be rectified – I would look to trade a break of 16300 (longs) and 15809 (shorts) While hindsight is a wonderful thing, the equity index to be long on the week was the EU Stoxx 50, which is in beast mode (even when priced in USD). The ECB refraining from pushing back on market pricing has certainly helped, while EU earnings also ramp up. Looking ahead, Thursdays EU CPI could be very important for both the EUR and EU equity, where a weak core CPI print – below 3% - could open the door for the ECB to signal a big change from the collective at the 7 March ECB meeting, although we can gauge an immediate response to the CPI data from ECB members Lane and Centeno, who both speak after the CPI data. US data last week, for the most part, impressed and should result in the FOMC statement being little changed this week. Nuance and positioning will play a key role in the moves in rates, the USD, gold, and equity. FOMC aside, it’s a big week ahead State Side, with a raft of key labour market reads, growth data points, the US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) as well as it being the marquee week of US earnings with Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon reporting. It’s not a shock that longs in NAS100 and US500 have had a collective rethink and thought twice about building on the move into 4900. That said, if we look at the volatility markets there has been no pickup in hedging activity with limited propensity to buy downside puts. In fact, all the talk has been that funds are selling index calls to collect premiums and enhance returns on their underlying equity positions. This is subsequently having a big effect in dampening volatility. Crude and Nat Gas are where the moves are taking place, and certainly, SpotCrude had a flyer gaining over 6% on the week, trading into the Nov range highs and taking out the 200-day MA. US data has been a factor, but geopolitics is also a growing issue, and we watch headlines roll in. The bulls seem to have control for now, so upside risks remain – a break higher could also become problematic for future headline inflation, although we’re not at levels too concerning yet. All in, we see a new week littered with key event risks – economic data flow, central bank meetings and corporate earnings. It pays to be aware of the calendar, whether one is day trading and navigating these potential vol events through the day. Or holding positions but not in front of the screens. Consider if the event holds the potential for outsized moves, where the skew of risk resides, and what the means for the stop placement and position sizing. It’s the week that has it all – good luck. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate this week: • End-of-month portfolio flows – Investment bank flow models suggest USD selling to play out to rebalance portfolios, with some sizeable selling in Japanese equities to reweight. • Aus Q4 CPI (31 Jan – 11:30 AEDT) – Q4 CPI poses an obvious risk to AUD and AUS200 exposures. The market looks for headline Q4 CPI to print 0.8% QoQ / 4.3% YoY (from 5.4%), with the trimmed mean measure also expected to fall to 4.3% YoY. Importantly, the RBA had forecast 4.5% for Dec CPI (on both metrics), so the further below that the more dovish the reaction in the AUD. As it stands, Aussie interest rate futures see no chance at the Feb RBA meeting, with a 1-in-4 chance of a 25bp cut in the May meeting. Given such sanguine pricing, we’d need to see a 3-handle on CPI YoY to bring a cut onto the table near-term and promote a big move in the AUD. • China Manufacturing and Services PMI (31 Jan – 12:30 AEDT) – the market eyes the manufacturing index at 49.2 (from 49.0) and the services index at 50.6 (50.4) – after some big stimulus last week CN/HK equity index longs will be keenly hoping for the data flow to show signs of improvement, although it’s the property space that is of most interest. • FOMC meeting (1 Feb 06:00 AEDT) & Chair Powell presser (06:30 AEDT) – it will certainly be hard to match the strong dovish reaction in the Dec FOMC meeting and after the strong Q4 GDP print, and consumption the Fed will be in no mood to declare victory. With the Fed expected to lose its tightening bias, the FOMC statement should read neutral. There will also be a large focus on the timeline for tapering the pace of QT (or balance sheet reduction), notably with Jay Powell’s likely to be heavily probed on this in his press conference – all up, while positioning is always a factor, I see two-way risks for the USD and equity. See our preview here - pepperstone.com • Sweden’s Riksbank meeting – the Riksbank will leave rates at 4% but should open the door to cuts, with the swaps market pricing the first cut in May. Preference for USDSEK upside, adding on a closing break of 10.5000. • BoE meeting (1 Feb – 23:00 AEDT) – the GBP has found support from resilient UK data flow, with GBPUSD tracking a clean 1.2800 – 1.2600 range. The market will be expecting the bank to retain a hawkish lean and will be looking for changes in the vote split to a 8-1 or even 9-0 vote to hold rates. With the market pricing the first 25bp cut at the May BoE meeting at 50%, and the first cut fully priced in June, I see a two-way risk to the GBP at this meeting. See our preview here - pepperstone.com • US nonfarm payrolls (3 Feb – 00:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is that we see 180k jobs created (the economist range of estimates is set between 285k to 120k), with the unemployment rate expected to tick higher to 3.8%. I think the USD reaction will be more closely linked to the outcome of the U/E rate than net job creation. • EU CPI (1 Feb) – The CPI print could be pivotal to the ECB and could set the stage for a more dovish narrative from the bank. The market sees headline CPI falling to 2.7% (from 2.9%) and core CPI to 3.2% (3.4%). Chief economist Lane speaks 90 minutes after, so we could get an immediate reaction to the data from one of the ECB’s most influential members. The EU CPI print poses big EUR risk given the implication for ECB rate expectations, so consider EUR exposures over the news. • US Treasury financing estimate (29 Jan) and Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA - 31 Jan) – the QRA was the trigger for lasting trending conditions in price in both August and November and the implications this time around could be significant. That said, I am leaning towards the idea that the market will not get a surprise this time around, but with T-bills still expected to play a big role in govt funding in the weeks ahead there will be further increased scrutiny on the level of RRP balances and ultimately the funding markets (SOFR-Fed funds). See our preview here - pepperstone.com US earnings in the week ahead – As it stands, we’ve seen 25% of S&P500 companies report, 78% have beaten expectations on EPS (by an average of 6%) and 53% have beaten on sales. Companies have reported 1.6% aggregate EPS decline, and 3.7% sales growth. In the week ahead we get earnings from just over 40% of the S&P500 market cap, including 4 of the illustrious MAG7 names – as a highlight I expect good interest in: Tuesday - UPS, Microsoft (implied move -/+ on the day of reporting 4.3%), Alphabet (-/+ 5%) Wednesday - Boeing (-/+ 3.8%), Mastercard (-/+ 2.9%), QUALCOMM (-/+ 5.6%) Thursday - Apple (-/+ 3.2%), Meta (-/+ 6.5%), Amazon (-/+ 6.2%) Friday - Chevron (-/+ 2.3%), and Exxon (-/+ 2.2%). Other US data points worth considering: US – Consumer confidence (31 Jan 02:00 AEDT), JOLTS jobs openings (31 Jan 02:00 AEDT), Employment Cost Index (1 Feb 01:00 AEDT), ISM manufacturing (2 Feb 02:00 AEDT). In LATAM FX: The BCCh (Chile) meet on Wednesday and are expected to ease by 100bp to 7.25%, although there is a chance they go 75bp - USDCLP is seeing positive momentum and I favour it higher near-term but have limited conviction. The Brazilian CB go on the same day and should cut the selic rate by 50bp to 11.25% Columbia also meet on Wednesday, and we see a 50bp cut to 12.50%.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
While China eases, it's still too early for the U.S. After testing $4,900 yesterday, the SPX retreated slightly lower. Currently, it trades near $4,870, and we keep monitoring the resistance at $4,900 and support at $4,800. We are also paying close attention to the RSI, which broke above 70 points on the daily graph; the invalidation of the breakout will raise a slight concern, and the same will apply to the spike in the VIX. Besides all these things, we will keep an eye on the Chinese markets, which saw a ban on short-selling being imposed last week and which failed to halt the crashing market. That prompted regulators to announce new stimulus measures and cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points (effective from 5th February 2024). Due to these major changes, we have changed our stance on the Chinese equity markets and are no longer bearish. However, it is still yet to see whether these measures will have a lasting effect (remember, plenty of other measures were implemented in the past few years, failing to halt the multi-year decline). Despite all this optimism and similar expectations among investors for the easing in the U.S., we remain highly cautious (and skeptical that the FED will cut rates in the next two meetings). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX’s RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above 70 points. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays three major Chinese indices on the daily time frame. It can be observed that volume began to quickly increase alongside equities following the announcement of the boost to the economy. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly