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SPX500 - THE BIG SHORT To understand the logic behind my numerology actions, you can watch my video ideas. I believe that the spx500 will turn strongly downward in the near future, the reference point for me to start a set of shorts will be January 3, 2024. I will be gaining position by positioning. Targets to decline very strongly downward under possible geopolitical events in the future. In general, I expect a decline until March 2024, perhaps it will be in the spring. But I don't want to look that far, it will be the end of winter then I will make a new idea. See related ideas.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by FTT_TRADER369
S&P500 Is 4800 the end of the road after 9 green weeks?The S&P500 index (SPX) is currently on its 9th straight green week (1W candle) following the October 23 (weekly terms) bottom. That was a Higher Low on the 15-month Channel Up and based on that pattern, the index is approaching its top (Higher Highs trend-line). What adds more weight to the very high levels it is trading at, is that the All Time High is just above the current price at 4820. A peak on that level would represent a +17.40% increase, exactly the % rise of the first Bullish Leg of the 15-month Channel Up that peaked on the week of November 28 2022 and then corrected by -8.06%. With the 1W RSI almost overbought (70.00) as it was on July 24, which was the peak of the previous Higher High of the Channel Up that initiated a 3-month correction of almost -11% and the 1W MACD on a post Bullish Cross level similar to the highs of August 15 2022 and November 28 2022 that kickstarted corrections, the selling pressure has now considerably stronger parameters to start. This means that, at least from a technical perspective, this is the strongest sell opportunity since late July. A minimum correction of -8.00% would deliver a test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and as such, our target is 4450 (slightly above it). If however the bullish trend continues for a few more weeks and pursues the maximum % rally we have seen since 2021, which has been +20.95%, then we can see an extension at around 4950, in which case we will add an additional (2nd) sell and both our bearish targets will be restructured at 4580 (-8.00%). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXShort
by TradingShot
Overbought conditions make a case for correctionThe SPX is less than 1% away from the all-time high. Yet, its overbought conditions on the daily chart are starting to make a compelling case for a correction. To support this case, we would like to see the RSI break below 70 points (on the daily chart). Additionally, we would like to see MACD and Stochastic reverse and begin pointing to the downside. On top of that, we would also want to see a pick-up in volume accompanied by a weakness in the price. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX, NDX, and DJIA. The green and red arrows highlight a volume growth followed by a subsequent decline that started around 15th December 2023. While the decline is not too significant, it should not be overlooked and dismissed (especially as indices are trending in overbought territory). Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
S&P500 Start selling. Top of Channel is near.S&P500 / US500 has almost completed a +17.30% rise, which is the prince range it grew by on the December 1st 2022 High. That was the first High of the long term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13th 2022 bottom. The Channel Up still has a little more room to go upwards before reaching its top but since the price is already over the 0.786 Fibonacci level, we are already inside the long term Sell Zone. Sell and target 4570, which is a possible contact point with the 1day MA50 and the 0.5 Channel Fibonacci. Technically the decline can reach as low as the 0.5 horizontal Fibonacci at 4445. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TheCryptagon
GOLD → False breakdown of 2070. Rollback to the end of the year FOREXCOM:XAUUSD strengthened quite actively last week. The price is retesting the resistance at 2069.8 formed in August 2020. There are reasons for further growth, but also reasons for further pullback. Let's see On D1 we can see that in the frame of distributive movement the price tests the resistance 2069.8 and forms a false breakdown, which activates a rather strong sell-off. A few hours before the end of the session the price loses 0.85%. In the coming week there is no news except Initial Jobless Claims , analysts are expecting an increase in claims from 205K to 210K. The GDP data weakens the dollar, the Fed's stance also suggests a possible rate cut next year, and in addition the inflation data . The overall fundamental background is unfavorable for the TVC:DXY and we see a decline in the index, which in the medium term is favorable for the gold market. Technically, there are a few days to go until the end of 2023, volatility and liquidity may decrease, but since Friday ended with a false break of resistance zones (2069.8, 2055), the current correction may last. The price may reach the support area before further growth. It is worth paying attention to the following levels: Resistance: 2055, 2050, 2065, 2069, 2075 Support: 2047, 2040, 2030, 2015 I advise you to study the work schedule of your brokers for Christmas and New Year holidays. Each broker determines its own regulations and therefore on these days some companies may work and others may not. Merry Christmas! Have a great holiday! Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
6
GOLD → The price enters a new range of 2050 - 2070FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is breaking through resistances. Yesterday the US GDP was released, which showed weaker data than the market expected and this is favorable for the gold price. In part we were prepared for it. The TVC:DXY is breaking the pattern and retesting key support. High odds are high that the decline and weakening of the index will continue. Hence, it is bullish for gold to overcome the pattern and range resistance. Gold in a bullish move breaks through the limit barrier and consolidates above the mentioned line. Ahead of us today is the news at 13:30 GMT. I don't think they will change anything after the US GDP. Analysts expect the publication of about the same data as last period (with a slight correction). Volatility may increase in the market, be careful during trading. Gold enters a new range of 2050 - 2070, the intermediate target is 2062. Support levels: 2050, 2048 Resistance levels: 2062, 2075 I expect the continuation of growth even after the news, as yesterday's news defined the medium-term potential for the market. Targets are indicated on the chart. A pullback from 2062 to support before further growth is possible. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
13
S&P500: Holding the 4H MA50. Still bullish.The S&P500 index is now on a healthy green 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.835, MACD = 82.010, ADX = 81.214) following a much needed technical pullback yesterday that eased the previously overbought technical indicators. On the 4H timeframe, the index is still inside a two month Channel Up, which found support yesterday on the 4H MA50. As long as it holds, we will stay buyers until the end of the year, aiming at its top (TP = 4,850). If the price crossed under the 4H MA50, we will short aiming at the 4H MA100. If that is crossed as well, we will target the 4H MA200, which is close to the bottom of the Channel Up. It has to be said that the RSI has been inside a Channel Down, meaning that at some point, this bearish divergence will start a correction. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
S&P500 The rally still has one more High to give at least.The S&P500 index (SPX) pulled-back yesterday on the strongest 1D red candle since October. A natural technical reaction after weeks of rise-only price action and an overbought 1D RSI that almost hit 83.00. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, it is likely to see one final upward extension towards its top (Higher Highs trend-line). The two major Higher High sequences (bullish legs) of this Channel have been around +20.50%, extending almost as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci level. As a result we are expecting a minimum of 4930, before any larger correction takes place, unless of course the index breaks above its Channel Up, in which case we will look for a new pattern. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
US500 Will Go Down! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4725.8. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 4497.2. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by SignalProvider
3
US500 - Critical Zone Ahead ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 📈 After breaking above 4100.0 high, US500 has been overall bullish trading inside the blue rising wedge pattern and it is currently approaching the upper bound of the pattern. Moreover, the zone 4800.0 is the current All-Time-High. 🎯 Therefore , the highlighted blue circle represents a significant area to consider for potential shift in momentum, as it marks the intersection of the green All-Time-High and the upper blue trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be actively searching for bearish reversal setups to capture the next bearish correction movement. For the bulls to invalidate the bearish scenario, we need a momentum weekly candle closing above the All-Time-High. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheSignalyst
The Fed Put is back – buy the dip is a key theme of 2024 As many try to put reasoning to the perennial grind higher in US equity markets, one clear factor is that the market sees one major difference between 2023 and 2024 – the ‘Fed put’ has been reborn and the metaphorical safety blanket for risky assets is back in the mix. Cast our minds back to January 2023, and investors were seeing inflation falling, with headline CPI coming in from 9.1% (in June 2022) to 6.4% (in December) – however, confidence of further falls was still low, and traders saw the path for inflation as evenly distributed. The absolute level was also still very high, and the Fed were hellbent on bringing that down, where at the time many felt that this could come at the expense of a recession - which was the big consensus view. We also knew that the Fed was focused on reducing its balance sheet through FWB:95B p/m in balance sheet runoff (or QT). For many, the perception of reduced liquidity meant being underweight or bearish on equity and credit. It’s not hard to understand why the market felt vulnerable, believing the historical saviour of the capital markets was no longer going to support, even on a 15-20% drawdown in the S&P500. 2024 is a very different dynamic In 2024, the Fed have a 5.3% fed funds rate to play around with and can cut rates if there is a need to support businesses and the consumer. A far cry from the zero-interest rate world we’ve been accustomed to for many years. Having reduced the balance sheet by over MIL:1T and having numerous case studies showing how effective the use of its balance sheet has been in providing targeted and immediate support. The markets know the Fed will not hesitate to utilize its balance sheet to provide target liquidity and capital to stave off any issue deemed potentially systemic. Most importantly, the distribution for US inflation is now considered skewed and one-sided, with a high probability of lower levels. Hence, the Fed has increased scope to ease policy should the need arise, and while Fed officials are saying their work is not done, and the last push to get to its 2% inflation target is the hardest part, they can front load cuts far more efficiently when core PCE is at 3.5% and falling. In recent times we’ve seen massive inflows in US equity and ETF funds, accelerated corporate equity buy-backs, which are suppressing volatility, and generally FOMO capital chasing returns. Within the flows, there’s been an active rotation into junk and high leverage equity, as well as high short interest plays – confidence is clearly euphoric. It’s easy to argue that traders know that if a tail risk event plays out in 2024, then this time is different, and the Fed (and other DM central banks) will support asset markets. The strike price for the 'Fed Put' has moved far closer to the market. Recent history has shown time after time when bad things happen, they are nearly always rectified in a positive fashion and we ‘climb the wall of worry’. Its why funds are consistent sellers of volatility on spikes. The buzz phrase for 2024 Talk of a ‘Fed Put’ will be a major buzz phase in 2024 – markets may even test it out and take on the Fed to search out its willingness to act and to support. For market participants, it suggests that equity drawdown will be supported and ‘buy the dip’ will be back in vogue once again – not that it really has gone away.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Pepperstone
GBPUSD → The start of a rally? A retest of support FOREXCOM:GBPUSD on the back of Powell's loyal speech regarding further rate cuts, but which he has now left unchanged, and also on the back of inflation, which is falling much slower than he would like, is strengthening and updating the high to 1.279 . On D1 we see how the price reacted to the news that came out on Wednesday. Price tests the MA-200 on Tuesday and Powell accelerates the rally on Wednesday. Pretty aggressive market reaction to virtually unchanged data. Oh well. At this point, the price broke the downward resistance, which puts the market in a bullish phase. After consolidation we see the transition to the distribution mode, which may continue after the local retest of the support areas indicated on the chart. Strong bulls have come to the market again, which take advantage of the weakening TVC:DXY The key support area is 1.2715 - 1.2650. A retest of the support may form a false breakdown, and the subsequent consolidation above the level will form a bullish potential. Medium-term targets for further growth are resistance at 1.2784, 1.2888 Support levels: 1.2715, 1.265, 1.2615 Resistance levels: 1.2784, 1.2888 Within the framework of the emerging correction, the price may test the support before further growth. Today there is no strong news that can affect the market, in all likelihood, the bullish influence on the pair will continue. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
11
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.The Volatility Index (VIX) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the September 28 2022 High, which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets (SPX illustrated by the thin black trend-line). Being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa. Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day, the end-of-the-year rally. However, we see a deceleration on VIX's decline, while its 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross since December 01. Being so close to the Channel Down bottom, a technical rebound is technically plausible and the pattern is recurring as it resembles a lot the previous Lower Lows. If it does reverse upwards, the SPX can react a few days later as during the previous bottom process and reversal (June 22 - July 27) it lagged. In any case, this pattern shows that by January 2024, we should expect heightened volatility translated potentially into a (short-term at least) pull-back on the stock market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
5
S&P500: Possible top near 4900. RSI highly unsustainable.We are not saying that the S&P500 won't complete this market wide desired rally in the last two weeks of the year. Even January could be bullish. But since the price is approaching the top of the 14 month Channel Up, while the 1d RSI is highly unsustainable deep into the overbought zone at 80.00, the market is most likely positioning itself for a strong technical correction. The last time the 1d RSI was that overbought was on June 15 2023 and November 05 2021. The latter in particular looks very similar to today. Both patterns peaked at least 6 weaks after the RSI got this overbought. New All Time High most likely will be made at 4900 at the very top of the Channel Up in a typical overextension of the market to trap as many late buyers as it can. Follow, Like, Comment below!
TVC:SPX
by YahooSignals
A few trends in China's economyToday, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation. Youth unemployment While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018 (back then, it stood at around 10%), with government programs promoting a higher level of education contributing to the problem. As a matter of fact, this year, in June, the youth unemployment rate hit a staggering 21.3%, prompting the Chinese government to stop reporting the number. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of China’s unemployment rate. Demographics and fertility Another big issue in China is the country’s aging population and declining fertility among women. The median age has risen from 28.9 years in 2000 to 34.1 years in 2010 and 37.4 years in 2020. On the other hand, the average number of births per woman stood at 1.6 in 2000; in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017, the average rose to 1.8. But since 2018, the rate has been rapidly collapsing. In 2021, the number stood at 1.2, representing approximately 33% decline since 2018. China’s deflation As much of the Western world grapples with inflation, China has the opposite problem. For November 2023, the country recorded -0.5% deflation compared to the previous year. With that said, there were three periods when China experienced deflation (annually) since the 1990s. The first period occurred between 1998 and 1999, when the annual inflation rate was -0.8% and -1.4%. The second instance took place in 2002, and the third in 2007. For the eleven months of 2023, the inflation rate averages about 0.3%, the lowest figure since 2009. Housing prices Amid the ongoing property crisis in China, house prices have been sliding down this year. Actually, there were only two prints when the year-over-year change was not negative, particularly in June 2023 (coming in at 0.1%) and July 2023 (coming in at 0%). Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:HSI
by Tradersweekly
2
GOLD → Bears are around. The fall may continue, but....FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is under selling pressure amid the global bull market. Earlier, the price updated the high to 2150, after which it formed a rather strong conglomerate of bearish patterns. Last trading week, the market rattled everyone's nerves. And the reason for that was the incompetence of the Fed as a structure that has a huge influence on the market. The paradox of the Fed this week was that Fed Chairman Jeremy Powell gave a strong pattern on Tuesday that they are discussing rate cuts and are ready to do so in the future. As a consequence, an aggressive reaction is forming in the market in the form of a bullish momentum of 3%. And on Friday, one of the Fed's representatives, Williams, said that they are not even going to consider this issue anytime soon. He also added that the Fed is seriously ready to raise rates if necessary. the market reacts with strong sell-offs of $300 or 1.5%. The price is testing one of the strong support areas and from the technical analysis point of view, there is a chance to see a rebound and a retest of the local resistance before a further decline. In the coming week it is worth paying attention to the following news, the data on which can also determine the medium-term outlook for the market: GDP QoQ, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia FED MI Core DGO, CORE PCE Based on the fundamental data from last week, there are strong indications that we should expect the TVC:DXY to strengthen from the market opening and in the medium term. Consequently, after a small correction, gold may continue its decline towards the imbalance zones, which are obviously still of interest to the market maker. The medium-term target may be the support area below 1975. The market may test the support of the global price channel before further growth. At the moment, the priority of forces is for the bulls, as there are a number of nuances and patterns that point to this. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
24
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: The last hoorah We roll past a huge week of event risk, and you can’t beat a surprisingly dovish-interpreted turn from the Fed to get risk pumping in markets – but that is what we saw, and it affected our trading environment greatly. Perhaps things had gone too far with NY Fed President John Williams stepping in on Friday and pushing back, detailing it was “premature” to think about rate cuts right now. In a world where communication with markets is critically important, these comments seem highly orchestrated and designed purely to stop financial conditions from getting too euphoric. Fine, the market is convinced inflation is moving towards target in 2024, but the last thing any central bank want now is to destabilise inflation and growth expectations and see demand rise ahead of a cutting cycle, amid a renewed wealth effect. That would not be in the market script for 2024. With US 2yr Treasury bond yields falling close to 30bp on the week, and DM rates rallying in a similar fashion – the USD falling 1.3%, and US growth expectations being revised higher (the Atlanta Fed Nowcast model has US Q4 GDP running at 2.61%), this is goldilocks at its finest. The wash-up was the US500 gaining for 7 straight weeks, and we question if we can we see an 8th? The US2000 gained an impressive 5.6% wow, with the NAS100 and US30 closing at ATHs. The ASX 200 even came onto the momentum radar, recording a weekly rise of 3.4%. It’s rare to see the Aussie equity market get such a working out from momentum accounts, but the index is in beast mode and recorded its second-best week of the year. In the FX world, the NOK shone bright after the surprise 25bps hike from the Norges Bank, gaining 4.3% vs the USD - NOKSEK longs (or EURNOK shorts) look compelling, having printed a solid bullish outside week. With EUR PMIs reinforcing the headwinds faced in Europe, I am also skewed short of EURAUD, and while the RBA minutes this week should reinforce a relatively hawkish RBA, the AUD needs follow-through gains in Chinese equities. As we look at the event risk this week, we see the BoJ meeting, US core PCE inflation and UK CPI as the big-ticket items for traders to navigate. On balance, unless the BoJ really surprises the market, it feels a stretch to see these derail the risk story in any great capacity - so the question will be whether traders start to close their books, reduce exposures and lock in returns. Or is there one last push left in risky assets? John Williams’s comments have modestly dampened spirits and may be enough for a short-term reprieve to the bullish flow. We shall see. Have the risk bulls had their fun for the year or is there one last hoorah? Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: BoJ meeting (19 Dec – no set time) – after recent comments from BoJ Deputy Gov Himino that an exit from its ultra-loose policy can offer benefits to the economy, the market has formed a view the BoJ monetary policy could shift. Last week’s TANKAN report gave that call additional legs, with Japanese corps seeing inflation above the BoJ’s target of 2% in 5 years’ time for the 6th straight quarter. Despite recent moves in JPY assets, the market is not looking for a change in rates, and a move from negative interest rates at this meeting, although they could guide for change at the January meeting. That said, a surprise policy change – either to its rates setting or YCC - can’t be ruled out, so watch JPY and JPN225 exposures here. RBA December minutes (19 Dec 11:30 AEDT) – after keeping rates on hold at the December meeting and refraining from altering the statement to any large degree the minutes shouldn’t trouble AUD traders too intently. Tactually biased short EURAUD for 1.5900/20. EU (final) CPI (19 Dec 21:00 AEDT) – given this is a final print, and the market is not looking for a change in the previously reported headline CPI numbers from 2.4% yoy and core CPI yoy at 3.6%, this should be a low volatility event. It should, however, remind traders of the steep decline in EU inflationary pressures that reinforces an optimism of a March rate cut from the ECB. China 1- & 5-year Prime Loan Rate (20 Dec 12:15 AEDT) – the market expected the prime rate to remain unchanged for the 1-year and 5-year rate at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively. While a cut to the prime rate seems a low risk, there are risks of a near-term cut to banks' reserve ratio requirements, although they are unlikely to come at this meeting. UK CPI inflation (20 Dec 18:00 AEDT) – the market looks for UK headline CPI to print 0.1% mom / 4.3% yoy (from 4.6%), and core CPI at 5.6% (5.7%). The market prices a 20% chance that the BoE cut in the March BoE meeting, with a full 25bp priced for June. The UK CPI print could impact that pricing and by extension the GBP. Canada CPI inflation (20 Dec 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for headline CPI to come in at -0.2% mom / 2.8% yoy (from 3.1%), and core CPI at 3.3% (3.6%). The market prices a 72% chance of a cut from the BoC in March, so the CPI print could impact that pricing. USDCAD eyes support into 1.3325 – the rising trend drawn from the May 2021 low. US consumer confidence (21 Dec 02:00 AEDT) – the median estimate is for an improvement in confidence with the index eyed at 104.0 (from 102.0). Upside in this data series could support risky assets. Japan national CPI (22 Dec 10:30 AEDT) – the consensus is for headline inflation to moderate to 2.8% yoy (from 3.3%) and core CPI at 3.8% (4%). Unlikely a vol event for the JPY, but worth keeping an eye on if running JPY exposures over the data. US core PCE inflation (23 Dec 00:30 AEDT) – after reviewing the recent US CPI and PPI prints, the market looks headline PCE inflation to come in at 0.00% mom / 2.8% yoy (from 3%), and core PCE at 0.2% mom / 3.3% yoy (3.5%). The trajectory of inflation is a key reason for the market pricing such an elevated risk of a March rate cut - so a below consensus print could solidify that call and weigh on the USD. EM risk Columbia central bank meeting (20 Dec 05:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for a 25bp cut to 13%, with risks of a hold. USDCOP looks heavy, so modest downside risk portrayed in the set-up with an out-of-consensus hold a potential trigger – a break below 3960 suggests new YTD lows. Chile central bank meeting (20 Dec 08:00 AEDT) – the median call is the benchmark rate is cut by 75bp to 8.25% (from 9%) but given the recent inflation report, there is an elevated risk of a smaller 50bp cut to 8.5%. USDCLP needs a catalyst as the market seems happy to range trade this pair between 890 to 860. Mexico bi-weekly CPI (21 Dec 23:00 AEDT) – the market eyes 4.36% yoy (from 4.33%). USDMXN tracks a range of 17.57 to 17.05 – and needs a catalyst to promote a momentum move.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
S&P500 Sold Channel Up leading it higher.The S&P500 / US500 is trading inside November's Channel Up, with the price turning sideways after nearly hitting its top. This is a comfortable bullish trade over the 4hour MA50 and looks very much like the November 5th-9th consolidation. As long as the 4hour MA50 supports, buy and target 4850 (top of the Channel Up). If it breaks, sell and target 4550 (bottom of the Channel Up and 4hour MA200). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
1
GOLD → The market is warming and bullish potential is forming FOREXCOM:XAUUSD strengthens and tests the local high but fails to reach the key resistance at 2050. A strong consolidation above the 2030 level and subsequent momentum is forming. On D1 we see the potential that the market is aiming for. On the background of weakening TVC:DXY , on the gold market bulls form a strong support area below 2030 after which within the framework of realization of the accumulated potential the market strengthens, forming a bullish impulse. For us at the moment the area of 2034 and 0.382 fibo plays an important role. As the pre-breakout consolidation is formed in relation to the resistance, and after the false breakout of 2040 the price does not fall, but breaks the resistance, it seems that with a positive fundamental background the market may continue its growth. But before the growth the price may finally test the support. As part of the realization, the price may reach the area of 2050 or even 2060. Closing of today's daily session will determine for us the medium-term potential for the next week. Resistance levels: 2047.5, 2050. 2062 Support levels: 2038, 2030, 2025 It seems that the market is getting ready to test the resistance. A pullback within the range may follow. Price return to resistance will prepare the market for further growth. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
33
SPX500 to retest all time high?US500 - Intraday Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs. There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end. A break of the recent high at 4744 should result in a further move higher. Short-term momentum is bullish. We look for gains to be extended today. We look to Buy a break of 4746 (stop at 4720) Our profit targets will be 4806 and 4826 Resistance: 4744 / 4770 / 4820 Support: 4720 / 4693 / 4650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by OANDA
China sounds the need for stimulus A few weeks ago, we discussed the reversal in Chinese indices and the negative implications for American stocks. Yet, this week, the worse-than-expected data in China’s economy sparked talk about the need for additional stimulus measures in order to boost the post-Covid-19 recovery. At the same time, the FOMC unveiled the U.S. central bank might be a step closer to easing restrictive monetary policy. Both easing in the United States and stimulus overseas are likely positive factors for the U.S. stock market. In fact, to our surprise, we have already seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average reach a new all-time high on the eve of the FOMC press conference. With the Nasdaq 100 Index and S&P 500 Index hovering slightly away from their all-time highs, we would not be surprised to see them overcome these levels as well. We will monitor the situation in the foreseeable future and update our thoughts with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly