S&P500 This is how it will reach 6000.The S&P500 index (SPX) has recovered almost all of its losses since its July 16 All Time High (ATH), firmly establishing again itself above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the usual short-term Support level during uptrends.
The underlying pattern is a Channel Up and every time the index breaks above a former Resistance level (such as the current ATH), it consolidates for a few days and retests it as a Support, before starting the next wave of the Bullish Leg.
As a result, we expect the index to break above 5670 soon and then turn sideways, sustained above it for 1-2 weeks. By the end of October we are targeting for a 6000 Higher High at the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern.
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Us500
Bullish momentum to extend?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 5,561.67
1st Support: 5,464.86
1st Resistance: 5,668.95
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SPX to continue in the upward move?SPX500USD - 24h expiry
Continued upward momentum from 5544 resulted in the pair posting net daily gains yesterday.
5 positive daily performances in succession.
The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 5728 from 5094 to 5336.
The previous swing high is located at 5680.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 5566, resulting in improved risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 5566 (stop at 5526)
Our profit targets will be 5680 and 5728
Resistance: 5636 / 5680 / 5728
Support: 5566 / 5470 / 5440
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
S&P bulls amazing coming backLast week, buyers continued to surprise by maintaining the impressive rally that began on Monday, the 5th. Observing the daily chart, we can see that for 10 consecutive days, the price has been setting new highs, never falling below the previous day's low. As of today (Monday, the 19th), the bulls have retraced 80% of the last bearish wave. It's also notable that buying occurred across all major S&P sectors, not just in a few big names.
Here is the current market disposition:
1. The market is in a weekly uptrend, with a new major low officially confirmed at 510 .
2. On the daily chart, we see a beautiful stairstep pattern.
3. The only technical resistance above is July’s high of 565 , but given the rally's momentum, it is likely to be surpassed.
The long-term outlook is unequivocally bullish. The short-term outlook is also bullish, as long as the daily stairstep pattern remains intact.
For short traders, it is advisable to refrain from trying to catch the top. The current momentum is so strong that it could easily break all technical resistances. The only situation where I would consider cautious shorting is at the daily stairstep pattern break.
US100 0.25% ,US500 +0.26% MULTI TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at NAS 100 & S&P500 from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
NAS100 DAILY TF
* Thursday saw strong bullish momentum coming into play, with Fri cont.of this move.
* The weekly & daily TF show we are still trading in BULLISH conditions on the NAS100.
* NAS100 took internal range LQ, looking for that external range LQ to be taken.
* We are trading in discount looking for a bullish continuation long term on Nasdaq.
* With PO3 looking to open bearish this week to confirm a move higher to ERL.
NAS 100 4H TF
* Looking for the week to open Bearish into the 4h FVG + OB because our HTF BIAS (PO3) on D & W .
* WEEK open I will probably be looking for short positions OPPORTUNITIES.
* We will see what does the market dish.
* On the 4 hourly ERL > IRL.
S&P500 4H TF
USOIL 1H TF
* We saw a rally with the bulls, strong momentum to the upside.
* The is a 1H FVG, this is where i would look for short entries this week.
* Should this PD ARRAY hold will be short for the NASDAQ
* BASED on the price action served this week.
S&P 500 1H TF
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
US500 - Roadmap to 6kHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 US500 has been overall bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in red.
As long as the $5000 round number holds, I expect further bullish continuation towards the upper bound of the channel and $6000 round number.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
S&P500 Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5460 zone, US500 was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 5460 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
S&P500 Inflation below 3% 1st time since 2021! Must the FED cut?The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported today below 3% for the first time since April 13 2021! This means that Inflation (red trend-line) is getting closer to the Fed's desired benchmark, coming in contrast with the fears of an economic slowdown last week.
On today's S&P500 (SPX) analysis we examine the effect of an Inflation drop on the market.
As you can see, the sudden drop on the Inflation Rate in mid-2022 was followed by a sideways trend in the past year (since July 2023). This is not the first time we see such consolidation after a strong decline. In fact, the most similar pattern to today's is the post August 2012 consolidation on Inflation.
The similarities don't stop there. As this chart is our well-known 'S&P500 +10 year Cheatsheet' which we have published in the past and updated numerous times, we can see that the index has most likely entered the 2nd phase (green Rectangle) of its cyclical expansion (Channel Up), that tends to lead to a cooling Bear Phase in the form of a Megaphone. The current 1W RSI pattern is also similar to post 2013.
As a result, we expect the index to resume the uptrend and even hit 6900 at least as it will be a +95.84% rise (similar to 2011 - 2014).
Regarding the Fed, and whether or not they should cut the interest rates in September, we believe that this will be welcomed, especially on a 1 year basis, as it will stimulate the economy with inflation getting as close to the Fed's target as possible.
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US100 18.992.0 +2.52% MID-WEEK MULTI TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at NAS 100 & S&P500 from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
NAS100 DAILY TF
* We started the week on some BULLISH runs into a bearish BB.
* Entering the premium zone looking for rejection of this -BB.
* NAS100 currently taking LQ, looking for that internal range LQ to be taken(+OB).
* We are entering discount price looking for a bullish continuation long term on Nasdaq but intraday some shorts could be profitable.
* With PO3 looking for THURSDAY TO REVERSE for th week.
NAS 100 4H TF
* The week to opened Bullish into the 4h FVG + OB because our HTF BIAS (PO3) on D & W looking for possible reversals before we continue higher.
* looking for short positions OPPORTUNITIES.
* We will see what does the market dish.
* On the 4 hourly ERL > IRL.
S&P500 4H TF
* sentiment stays the same we still bullish, running into higher tf pd arrays.
US100 1H TF
* STRONG rally with the bulls, strong momentum to the upside.
* The is a 1H FVG, this is where i would look for short entries this week.
* Should this PD ARRAY hold will be short for the NASDAQ
* BASED on the price action served this week. But we might just reverse some where might as well be in these FVG prices
S&P 500 1H TF
* sentiment stays the same we still bullish, running into higher tf pd arrays
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
S&P500 Is Approaching A Significant Support AreaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5270 zone, S&P500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5270 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Dow Jones Index (US30): Detailed Support and Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important key support and resistance levels to pay close attention to.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Resistance 1: Rising trend line
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 38250 - 38550 area
Support 2: 38015 - 38105 area
Resistance 1: 39500 - 39700 area
Resistance 2: 39800 - 39960 area
Resistance 3: 40900 - 41415 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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S&P bulls return in the game; still some work to doLast week, buyers regained control on the daily timeframe, filling the gap from Monday, August 5th, and closing the week at the high. While this was a strong display of power, I would approach it with caution for the following reasons:
1. The market is currently in a weekly consolidation phase. We've already seen how strongly the bears defend their control on the weekly timeframe (as evidenced by the last week of July), so this should not be disregarded.
2. The magnitude of Wednesday’s bearish candle demonstrates how easily the bears can move the price when they feel weakness
3. While all major sectors closed week green, none has managed to close above previous week high. Most of them are in a weekly consolidation, which signifies genuine market weakness.
To sum it up, while it's highly likely that the bulls will be able to confirm a weekly low ( 510.3 ) in the next days, it's uncertain whether they will be able to maintain their position for long. I would definitely wait to see the week’s close before considering a “buy.” Ideally, the bulls should fill the gap from Friday, August 2nd, and establish some value above 534 . If this doesn't happen and we see a strong price rejection, it would confirm bearish control.
The upcoming week is packed with economic data, which could fuel momentum for either side.
Dow Jones Index (#US30): Your Trading Plan Explained
Dow Jones is currently stuck on a key daily/intraday horizontal resistance.
The price is trading within a narrow range on that on a 4H time frame.
Your confirmation to sell the Index will be a bearish breakout of the support of the range.
A 4H candle close below 39325 will confirm the violation.
A bearish continuation will be expected to 38890 then.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the underlined blue resistance
will push the market higher.
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S&P500 crashing. Will it benefit from a September RATE CUT??The S&P500 index (SPX, illustrated by the blue trend-line) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 3 weeks and a September Fed Rate Cut is already priced at 95%. But will the index benefit from such action?
A detailed look into the past 35 years of recorded Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) price action, shows that when it flattens and rebounds, the Fed steps in and cuts the interest rates (orange trend-line). As you see on that 1M chart though, this hasn't always been beneficial for stocks as especially for September 2007 and January 2001, it took place parallel to the Housing and Dotcom Crises.
The Inflation Rate (black trend-line) however seems to be at a low level that is consistent with market bottoms and not tops. As a result, it appears that it is more likely we are in a curve reversal that is consistent with bull trend continuation for the stock market, after short-term corrections, in our opinion either post June 2019 (ignore the COVID crash, which is a once in 100 years non-technical event) or pre-2000.
So to answer the original question, we believe there are more probabilities that a September rate cut will do more good to the stock market than harm.
Just as a side-note, based on this chart, our sentiment is that the current AI-led rally will be similar to the internet rally of the mid-90s that eventually led to the Dotcom crash of 2000.
Your thoughts?
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S&P500 Is Approaching The Daily TrendHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5240 zone, US500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5240 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Dow Jones Index (US30): One More Bearish Setup
I also see a bearish trend following setup on Dow Jones.
After yesterday's selloff, the market started a correctional movement.
On an hourly time frame, the market found a resistance around 39100 level
and formed a double top on that.
I think that the Index may drop at least to 38655 level.
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S&P weekly consolidation in progress; bears prove controlLast week was marked by hectic price action in both directions. Bulls failed to set a daily low for two consecutive days (Monday-Tuesday), which logically led to a strong bearish attack. Then something peculiar happened – the price pivoted near the previous low and went up during the overnight session. The market opened with a huge gap on Wednesday, held the open, and even managed to rally further in the regular session. I can only imagine how many short traders, who had done everything right, suffered from this.
This price action also confused many long traders, including myself, by making us believe that the weekly consolidation was coming to an end. But Thursday turned the board 180 degrees again with a psychotic bearish move, wiping out more than 2% of the market value. Again, as with the bullish rally, there was no obvious trigger unless you believe that PMI data could wield such importance.
At this point, we have the following disposition:
1. The market is still in a weekly uptrend. Until sellers take down the previous major low (491), nothing changes in this regard.
2. Bears have proved strong control over the weekly timeframe. We should respect this.
3. Bears were also able to start monthly consolidation, another sign of their strength.
All in all, I wouldn’t consider any long-term “buys” until bulls manage to set a convincing weekly low, even then with caution. Shorting is an option but is very tricky in light of what happened last week.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
SPX500 to continue in the downward move?US500 - 24H expiry
Traded to the lowest level in 12 weeks.
We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 5136 from 4930 to 5680.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
We look to set shorts at our bespoke indicator level (5273).
We look to Sell at 5273 (stop at 5321)
Our profit targets will be 5150 and 5136
Resistance: 5273 / 5338 / 5404
Support: 5175 / 5136 / 5091
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
VIX $2.9 Trillion wiped on recession fears. Is the worst over?The much lower than expected Nonfarm Payrolls today (114k against a 176k forecast) amplified the global recession concerns and wiped out $2.9 trillion from the stock markets, making it the worst day since the 2020 COVID crash.
With Nasdaq down almost -12% from its recent peak, investors are more or less convinced of the necessity of a September Fed Rate cut in order to restore confidence in the market. But is the worst over yet?
Well, lets take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX), which last time we analyzed it (April 16, see chart below), helped us take the most optimal buy entry on the stock market as it got rejected right at the top of its 10-month Channel Down:
Today VIX was up almost +90% from its daily Low, displaying enormous market volatility. It is useful in times like these to look at the multi-year price action in order to keep an objective technical perspective.
As this 1W chart shows, a VIX price this high is a rare feat since the 2008 Housing Crisis. In fact the break-out above the Channel Down resembles the Highs of December 24 2018 and October 13 2014 (blue circles). Those that been the lowest levels of alerts on the VIX scale, with the medium ones being the orange circles and the worst ones being the red (only happened twice: October 20 2008 and the COVID crash of March 16 2020).
At the same time, the 1W RSI just broke above the 70.00 Overbought barrier, which has only happened another 6 times since the 2008 Housing Crisis. It is easy to understand as a result, that this VIX spike has more chances to be corrected in the coming weeks than ending up in a larger stock market correction.
On our current chart, the stock market is represented by the S&P500 (black trend-line). As you can see, a strong recovery (green Channel Up) followed after the blue VIX peaks. In the event however that this turns out to be an orange VIX peak next week, the S&P500 is expected to start recovering within 4-6 weeks.
Which case do you think it will be?
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US500, NASDAQ at KEY level The price is currently at a key level, testing both support and the trendline.
1. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown):
- If the price breaks below the support level, it may indicate the beginning of an ABC correction in the Elliott Wave pattern.
- Action: Open a SHORT position with a smaller lot size.
- If the price then retests the broken support (now acting as resistance), you should open another SHORT position with a larger lot size.
- Target Levels: The price could initially drop to 5300 and potentially further to 4930.
2. Bullish Scenario (Support Holds):
- If the support holds and you observe bullish price action (e.g., long needles at the bottom of the candles), open a LONG position.
- Action: If the price forms a higher high and a higher low, or breaks above the resistance at 5560 and retests it, you can add to your LONG position.
Fundamental:
Recently, a technology crisis impacted Microsoft and several other companies' stocks. However, it appears that they have managed the situation effectively, suggesting a potential price increase. Despite this, the Volatility Index (VIX) keeps increasing, indicating persistent fear among investors. As a result, there is an equal 50/50 chance of prices moving either up or down.
S&P weekly consolidation ongoing; uptrend still intactLast week began with a bull rally that was very short-lived. Sellers stepped in, driving the price down through the last consolidation (and potential support) zone. By the end of the week, the market experienced a 180-degree shift in sentiment, with Friday closing with a bullish inside candle.
Currently, we have the following disposition:
1. The price is in an uptrend on the weekly chart, indicating that long-term buyers still maintain control.
2. The daily chart shows a downtrend, but so far, sellers have only managed to retrace 50% of the previous green wave.
3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 24th. If bulls can fill this gap this week, it will demonstrate their strength.
From a fundamental perspective, there was no significant negative news. On the contrary, the inflation data was quite positive, and earnings were mostly decent, except for TSLA. This suggests that the current downtrend is just a controlled weekly consolidation. Therefore, we should look for a weekly higher low to enter LONG positions to capitalize on the continuation of the weekly uptrend.
A lot will depend on the Big Tech earnings reports coming out this week, but so far, there is no reason to expect negative surprises.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.