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Us500

S&P500 Sell signal emerged.S&P500 is trading inside a 1 year Channel Up with the price reaching today the 0.786 Fibonacci level, following the Fed rate hike. Following the Bearish Megaphone that initiated November's rally, the can see that the last time such pattern started a rally, it peaked on the 0.786 Fibonacci (Dec 01 2022) before pulling back to the 0.236 level. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. Targets: 1. 4500 (MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The MACD (1d) is also printing the same pattern as the December 2022 High. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
GOLD → Waiting for the CPI. Will the situation change much?OANDA:XAUUSD continues to fall despite the expectations of many. The price is testing the 1984 area and updated the low to 1975.89. What can happen today? The TVC:DXY is in a local trend phase, but at the same time it is consolidating in anticipation of today's CPI and further news this week. The main gaze is directed towards FED interest rate decision, FOMC statement, Initial jobless claims. Against the backdrop of Friday's NFP we can say that things are still not very stable and the representatives of the US economic system may still consider a tougher outlook. In this case the dollar index will continue its growth and gold will go down. Technically, the metal is in the red zone, updating lows and testing resistances from below. The chances that the market will change the trend are not so great. Analysts expect bullish CPI, which will strengthen the dollar. Gold may fall further after a shakeout, within which it may test nearby resistances. Support levels: 1980, 1975, 1965 Resistance levels: 1984, 1890, 1994 I expect a shakeout on the background of the news, after which the decline may continue with a high probability. The potential is on the side of the bears, their strength prevails at the moment. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11
S&P500 Bullish unless this Support level breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) is extending the bullish leg of the 16-month Rising Wedge pattern. It doesn't have much room left before it hits the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern and as long as this stays intact, it targets 4730 as an end of year target. As you can see, throughout this pattern, its shorter Rising Wedge patterns that have driven the price upwards on the bullish legs, just like the current. The previous broke to the upside and peaked on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension while the first one failed and when it broke the Support (last Higher Low), it declined to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level below the 1D MA50. As a result, if the Support (4535) fails first, short and target 4370 (0.5 Fibonacci). The 1D MACD is about to complete a Bearish into Bullish Cross pattern, which was favors the bullish scenario. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
GOLD → Strong bears have come in. price is making new lows NCDEX:GOLD after NFP is updating 2-week low and preparing to decline further as fundamentally, we notice a reversal of market sentiment. On D1 the TVC:DXY is forming a reversal setup and another retest of the key level. Against the backdrop of positive NFP, the index could strengthen quite strongly within the medium-term outlook. In the COMEX:GC1! market, there is still a huge market imbalance in favor of buyers, whose number began to increase since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East. A final break of the 1994 support and further price decline towards 1984 is expected in the near future. But before that the market may test the local highs (resistance). Moving averages indicate a strong bearish trend. Resistance levels: 2000, 2004, 2007 Support levels: 1991, 1984, 1965 Fundamentally and technically gold is going down. There is no strong news today, but the market may test the nearest resistance to capture liquidity before falling further. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
17
US500 Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 4598.4. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 4414.2 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by SignalProvider
5
A few thoughts about employment and consumerToday, we would like to discuss two main things. The unemployment rate for November 2023 came in at 3.7%, which is really a surprise to see against a backdrop of high interest rates. However, some other trends might be worth mentioning. First, the broader unemployment indicator, the U-6 unemployment rate, fell to 7% last month from 7.2% in October 2023. Second, the number of multiple jobholders, with both primary and secondary jobs being full-time, dropped from 447,000 in September 2023 to 363,000 in November 2023. Meanwhile, the number of multiple jobholders, with the primary job being full-time and the secondary job being part-time, has skyrocketed in the same period (in fact, this metric has been growing rapidly since July 2023). On top of that, the continuous jobless claims continue to soar (recently hitting the highest level for the year), and there is an obvious decline across job openings in private, manufacturing, and nonfarm sectors. Furthermore, there are a lot of discrepancies among the employment data (going far beyond what we include in this article) that show full-time and well-paying jobs are getting replaced by part-time jobs and those that pay less. Now, on the topic of solid spending during the Black Friday holiday. There might be one thing partly responsible for big sales (and even for consumer spending staying strong for so long), which is rarely mentioned in the mass media: financial irresponsibility. We are seeing more and more people taking on debt to pay for their expenses, which is reflected in the official numbers. However, the most concerning to us is the group of young people, especially those in their 20s. From our empirical experience, financial illiteracy among young people seems to be hitting all-time highs, and young people do not seem to care about the implications of failing to meet the debt payments; instead, they want to buy what they want, and they want to buy it now, regardless if they can afford it. In our opinion, this will backfire horribly on those who took on debt in the past few years and are yet to see their debt payments increase dramatically. Illustration 1.01 The monthly graph above shows full-time employment in the United States. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the monthly graph of private job openings in the United States. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 displays the monthly graph of nonfarm job openings in the United States. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 shows the monthly chart of manufacturing job openings in the United States. Illustration 1.05 The image above shows the monthly graph of continuous jobless claims. Illustration 1.06 Illustration 1.06 displays the daily chart of the Hang Seng Index drifting lower within the downward-sloping channel. Today, the index marked a new low for the year (the index is still about 9% higher than last year’s lows). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
5
GOLD → Strong dollar influences further decline in gold OANDA:XAUUSD , following my expectation, on the background of Friday's NFP falls and reaches the target. The price is testing the level of 2000, but in my opinion, this target will not end this week. From December 11 to December 15 we are expecting a rather active week, fundamentally. On Friday we got a rather strong NPF for the dollar, which made gold fall from the zone I mentioned. The fundamental potential is not over, it will continue to influence the pricing in the medium term. It is also worth paying attention to the dollar. On the weekly timeframe we see the formation of a pinbar and a bullish candlestick, which overlaps the last two, which is a strong enough sign of further strengthening. Accordingly, gold and the forex market may react accordingly. Gold is currently testing the support area of the bearish channel. The important zone for us is 2007 - 2009. It is possible to form a retest, an impulse to 2010-2015 , or a false breakdown. Further consolidation of the price below this level will form a bearish potential, which will continue to pressure the price. The market is directed to the mentioned zones of interest and liquidity ( 1990, 1984, 1965, 1955 ) in the medium term. Fundamentally, the market has stopped paying attention to the nuances in the Middle East or Eastern Europe. Now everyone is waiting for some new information from Powell related to monetary policy, namely interest rates. But, more data on Initial Jobless Claims and NFP may make the Fed chief hesitant. Also, on the weekly timeframe, I found the " Cup with handle " pattern forming interesting. It is clear that within such a period it is impossible to determine the exact place of the breakout or the point of safe entry into the market, but the tendency to the fact that the extreme phase of the expected pattern is forming is already pleasing. Most likely, in the medium and long term, the price will continue to test the resistance 2070-2100 for a breakout and the formation of a new range, but not in the near future. OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
19
GOLD → NFP ahead. Will the sell-off continue? OANDA:XAUUSD continues to form a local bearish channel after updating the high to 2150 and strong sell-offs to the current area. There is still a huge imbalance in the market and the price could go even lower to settle the situation. NFP could perfectly develop the expected scenario I have been telling you about since the sell-off. Expect the data at 13:30 GMT. The Initial Jobless Claims report was released yesterday with positive data for the dollar. This could be a hint that NFP will hit the planned 180K , maybe more , instead of the last 150K . More bullish data relative to expected data will shake up the market. The dollar may strengthen, which will have a positive impact on gold. Gold made a false breakout of 2038 resistance and bearish channel and continues to trade within the downside range. The target support levels are a potential target. But before the news, volatility will be very sluggish. The market is saving the potential for realization. Support levels: 2027, 2025, 2022, 2007 Resistance levels: 2033, 2035, 2038 News can be unpredictable, try to trade carefully before the news. We are expecting a more positive NFP , a rising dollar and gold falling to the previously mentioned targets, but anything can happen OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
45
S&P500: Ascending Triangle trading plan.S&P500 is trading inside an Ascending Triangle pattern with the price over the July 27th Top (R1) and bullish on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 63.128MACD = 5.390, ADX = 23.122). Until the HH and more importantly the R2 level break, we will be bearish, targeting the S1 (TP = 4,550). Below the S1, the 4H MA200 is the target (TP = 4,480). If the price crosses over the R2 level, be ready for an end of year rally to the January 12th 2022 Top (TP = 4,749.50). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
EURUSD → Bullish NFP figures for USD may drop EURFX:EURUSD is declining and testing the local minimum on the background of strengthening of the dollar. The price is retesting MA-200 , which only increases the chances of further decline. Today, at 13:30 GMT we will meet the NFP data, to which the market reacts quite strongly. In general, analysts expect an improvement for the dollar, as 180K is expected relative to the previous 150K . After the publication of yesterday's Initial Jobless Claims, the reality is closer that the market could see NFP 180K , if not more, as the overall market situation is improving and the fundamentals support this. EURUSD may react with a fall to the possible strengthening of the dollar, but before the fall the price may test a local high, for example 1.08170. Overall, the chart clearly shows the approximate potential. A false breakdown of resistance of the ascending channel opens the possibility to see a sell-off towards trend support. Support levels: 1.0760 Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.08170, channel resistance In general, bullish news is expected for the US market, which may weaken the euro and the currency pair may fall. But this is news and no one knows in advance what can happen, we only try to see the scenario with a higher chance of realization FX:EURUSD TVC:EXY TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
4
GOLD → Market in range awaiting newsOANDA:XAUUSD is strengthening due to a slight correction in the TVC:DXY . The price is testing the local trend resistance area before the publication of Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT. The market is in a range as analysts and investors await the Initial Jobless Claims information to roughly understand the situation for tomorrow (Friday) as we approach the NFPs to be released on December 8 at 13:30 GMT. With the correlation between DXY and XAU, the situation is unstable right now. Going forward, the inverse correlation may change even more as there are targets at lower levels for gold. From a technical point of view, since we have a local bearish channel built on the background of strong sell-offs, I expect a false break of resistance and further decline to the previously mentioned targets. Support levels: 2022, 2010, 2007 Resistance levels: 2032, 2035, 2040 Situation may change due to fundamental factor, Unexpected news may change the situation dramatically, but temporarily. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
8
GOLD → The bears are moving towards imbalance OANDA:XAUUSD continues to update lows, testing new zones, but at the same time, as part of the correction, the price confirms the boundaries of the forming descending price channel. On D1 it is obvious that the decline in gold will continue, as there is still a huge imbalance at the expense of buyers. At the moment we are interested in the support area of 2022, which may be broken after another retest. In this case the decline will continue to 2009 and then to 1984. The Dollar Index is forming a correction, but even if the decline starts, gold may not react to the dollar and will continue to move towards its targets. On the chart we see a bearish channel, a bounce from resistance and another retest of support, the sellers are strong at the moment. At the same time the market is waiting for the news at 13:15 ADP Nonfarm EC, don't miss it, but before the news reduce the risks. Support levels: 2022, 2010, 2007 Resistance levels: 2035 I expect the continuation of the descending channel formation, in this case, the support may be broken soon and the price will head towards the mentioned target TVC:DXY OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
15
US500 Will Go Down! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 4577.1. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 4395.5 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by SignalProvider
2
Overseas weakness is poised to drag down the U.S. marketIn the previous post about the SPX, we have been cautioning against potential reversal in the Chinese indices and subsequent implications for the U.S. stock market. Since then, we have seen Hang Seng Index drop about 5% and Shanghai Composite Index about 2%. While these declines are not yet doom and gloom, the situation is worth watching out for in the upcoming days. We expect the Chinese market’s weak performance combined with worsening economic data (globally) to eventually drag down U.S. indices. Therefore, we will pay utmost attention to the release of S&P Global Composite PMI and S&P Global Services PMI today, and the announcement of unemployment rate on Friday. To conclude our views, we are starting to see the current pricing of the SPX as attractive to start dipping a toe in a tiny short position (accompanied by a stop-loss). We will update a our thoughts on the asset witth the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. The orange line represents Hang Seng Index (continuous futures), and the blue line represents the Shanghai Composite Index. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 depicts the Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite Index. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. The orange line represents E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (continuous). Interestingly, during the summer, the tech sector peaked sooner than SPX (by nine days). As the Nasdaq 100 has been steeply declining for the past four trading sessions, we will be paying close attention to its performance in the following days. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (losing momentum) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
4
GOLD → The sell-off may continue. News ahead OANDA:XAUUSD sold off 6% from its high. The price has lost more than $130. This is the biggest drop since August 2020. At the moment a correction is forming, after which the fall will continue On d1, the dollar is strengthening in anticipation of positive news, while the Fed is silent and treading water. Gold is forming a huge false breakout and a candle with a huge shadow, the potential of this setup is that without the influence of the fundamental component, from a technical point of view, the price can fall to 1900-1800 (do not take this as a target, it is just a nuance) For the gold market, the liquidity and imbalance zones are below: 2022, 2012, 2007, 1900, 1987, 1984. The probability is quite high that the price will test most of these targets, it is dangerous to buy now, the market is still in a sell-off, which I warned you about earlier. Reason: fundamental, dollar strength, lack of volumes, global range, engulfment, moving averages cross, huge imbalance. Support levels: 2030, 2022, 2012 Resistance levels: 2035, 2040 I am waiting for the continuation of the fall after the retest of the resistance area. But! Strong news is published today and the market may be stormy, on the background of panic, the price may test the resistance areas before falling COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
20
GOLD → Global Highs Update. What's next?OANDA:XAUUSD , on the back of the residual potential from last week, is forming a rally from the opening session and testing a new global high of 2150, after which we saw the strongest sell-off. Yesterday we looked at what could happen in gold. But no one expected an update of the highs to 2150. In any case a conglomeration of factors is important for us: Retest of global range resistance (W1, M1) Area 2069-2070. Huge sell-off after the retest of 2150. The market sold off all the upside. Distribution since early November. No potential, no energy and no volume. Update high was on no volume, on the back of hyped up price (pure market manipulation) Most likely, after the market calms down after this burst of activity, price will start testing the 2070-2069 area. I still stick to my scenario - false breakdown and further correction. Key level: 2069.8 - 2070. Support levels: 2059.65, 2049,6, 2035.3 It is important to wait for the market to calm down. A calm market may show a clearer picture for further prospects. We are waiting for a correction. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
34
S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:RSP chart analysis/mapping. RSP ETF rally representing S&P market breadth - offering legitimacy to overall market strength & further indication of healthy stock rotation, instead of "Magnificent 7" concentration. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / descending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone. Continuation rally #2 = multiple gap fills / 78.6% confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = 61.8% Fib / ascending trend-line (green dashed). Shallow pullback #2 = gap fill / 50% Fib / 200MA confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = gap fill / 38.2% Fib confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = descending trend-line (white) / gap fill / ascending trend-line (light blue) / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.
AMEX:RSP
by BlueHatInvestor
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:SPY chart analysis/mapping. Spy ETF strong rally throughout November - is it due for a pullback in December? Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (white) confluence zone. Shallow pullback #1 = descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone. Shallow pullback #2 = Golden Pocket / descending trend-line (white) / 200MA confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (light blue) / 50& Fib / gap fill confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = multiple gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone.
AMEX:SPY
by BlueHatInvestor
GOLD → Huge imbalance. Updating the highs. What to expect?OANDA:XAUUSD is making another rally and updating the global high to 2075.4, but at the same time there is a huge imbalance in the market. Distributive retest of the resistance zone and several preconditions allow me to think about a possible correction. In the coming week we will encounter several important news that will determine the market mood and possible medium-term prospects for trading. It is worth paying attention to the following news: SP PMI, ISM PMI (Bullish expectations) ADP NonFarm (Bullish expectations) Initial Jobless Claims (Bearish expectations) NonFarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate (Bullish Expectations) The bigger reaction is the unexpected nuances regarding the expected data. Since it is news, it is impossible to know in advance what will happen in the market. In the Middle East we notice the aggravation of the situation, but globally the situation does not change, and in addition, the TVC:DXY and OANDA:XAUUSD have not paid much attention to it lately. Increased interest in the gold market is connected with the general world crisis + decrease of dollar indices. Gold in the distribution phase is testing the strong level of 2069.8, the price closing above the resistance level, it may be another trap before further decline. After this maneuver, another pool of liquidity was formed to continue the growth, which only increases the imbalance of forces in the direction of buyers since the strong rally of gold (the rally began in early November due to the conflict in the Middle East). The chart more clearly shows the liquidity and disalignment zones. Market managers cannot allow further rallies in such a critical situation as they may lose money in the moment. Reasons why I expect a false breakdown and further decline: Strong distribution continues for a month. this maneuver has wasted all the potential, which, from a technical point of view, will not be enough to break through the 2070 area. Huge imbalance on the buyers' side Relative decline in volume on a false breakout Death Cross Positive DXY Fundamental Expectation from the open: The market may test 2069-2070 resistance on Monday and try to form a local bullish momentum and make a new high, but a false breakout may follow in the mid term. Consolidation or retest of 2069-2070 level from below may confirm the market's intention, which will start the final decline of the asset towards the mentioned zones. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
36
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – timing the turn We roll into December and many hoping to take a couple of weeks off over the festive season may be reconsidering that call – such is the opportunity cost. Whether one is looking at equities, the USD, gold, or bonds/rates it's all a big momentum play. In equity land, the US30 is where the big moves are playing out, with the index in beast mode and a mere 1.9% away from its all-time highs. The S&P500 also closed higher for a fifth consecutive week and our US500 index now eyes a test of the 27 July high of 4611, where price action throughout last week suggests further juice in the rally is still possible. What concerns me is that these markets are rich in positioning, valuation and technically overbought. Market internals are very frothy, with 57% of stocks closing at a 4-week high, 85% of stocks above the 50-day MA, and 32% of stocks with an RSI above 70 – levels that typically signal an overloved market and a potential reversal. Valuations are also lofty, with the S&P500 trading on 21.4x forward earnings, although that is more of a 2024 story. Positioning is becoming extreme, with CTAs now max long and shorts having covered hard. Downside protection/hedges have been rolled right off, where the volatility markets have pulled back to the point where many are feeling its cheap and prudent to buy short-dated puts or put spreads. US rates and swaps are rich (see above), notably on the starting point for Fed easing, with the March FOMC meeting now priced at a 70% chance of a cut. We can also look further out and see over five 25bp cuts priced by the end of 2024. The move in short-end rates has been swift, and the USD has followed in earnest. It suggests that the skew in the risk and the potential direction of travel is shifting, and if any of the US data points this week – notably US payrolls - come in above consensus then USD shorts will part cover and those positioned long of Treasuries may too – equity will be sensitive to any move higher in yields. So the chase in risk into year-end heats up but what is extreme can become more so, with the market's elastic band getting pulled back to greater and greater levels. On balance, it feels like long risk is still tactically the right position, but the higher it goes the more the ‘January effect’ will kick in and the more pronounced the position squaring and risk drawdown could play out – as liquidity thins out it could be a very lively period ahead. A turn is coming, but timing it is where the money will be made. Good luck to all…. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: ECB President Lagarde speaks (01:00 AEDT) – the EU swaps market prices 20bp of cuts as soon as the March ECB meeting and 114bp (nearly 5) cuts 12 months out – will Lagarde push back on this dovish pricing, and will the market believe her? Tokyo CPI (Tuesday 10:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is we see headline inflation at 3% (from 3.3%) and core 3.7% (3.8%). This shouldn’t move the JPY unless it’s a speculator beat/miss, but the BoJ will be watching this closely. RBA meeting (Tuesday 14:30 AEST) – the market prices no hikes at all for this meeting, so it will be down to the tone of the statement and whether the 8bp of hikes priced for the February RBA meeting are correctly priced. It’s hard to see any major deviation from RBA Gov Bullock's recent communication, so the meeting should be a low-volatility event for the AUD or AUS200. US JOLTS job openings (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the market looks for a slight cooling in job openings, with 9.3 million job openings eyed (9.55m). The USD could be sensitive to this print and prone to short covering if we see above 10m job openings. US ISM services (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the consensus is that we see expansion in the US service sector, with consensus at 52.3 (51.8). A downside read towards 50 (the growth/contraction divide) could see further buyers in US Treasuries and keep the pressure on the USD. If the data comes out inline or above consensus then USD shorts could cover. The sub-components of the report matter, notably in new orders and employment. If the employment sub-component comes in under 50, then it could impact expectations and positioning ahead of nonfarm payrolls (NFP). Australia Q3 GDP (Wednesday 11:30 AEDT) – It’s hard to see this influencing the AUD too intently, but it is a small risk for those running AUD exposures over the event. The market eyes GDP at 0.4% qoq / 1.8% yoy. US ADP employment change (Thursday 00:15 AEDT) – with NFPs on Friday the market should be less sensitive to the outcome of the ADP report. With the consensus at 120K jobs, a big beat/miss could impact the USD, as expectations for the NFP change. Bank of Canada meeting (Thursday 02:00 AEDT) – the market prices no change in policy at this meeting, so it’s the guidance and tone of the statement that matters more. CAD swaps price an 80% chance of a 25bp cut by the March meeting and nearly 5 cuts priced by end-2024 China trade data (Thursday – no set time) – the market looks for import growth of 4%, and exports to fall 1.5%. The market will look for signs of internal demand, so could be sensitive to any beat/miss in the import print. US nonfarm payrolls (S at 00:30 AEDT) – the marquee event risk for the markets this week. The median estimate is for around 180k jobs, with the economist's estimates ranging from 240k to 100k. We will also look at trends in revisions to the prior reads, as this will also affect the 3-month average. The market could be sensitive to the U/E rate which is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% - a 4-handle on the E/U rate would get the market talking and likely hit the USD. Also, consider average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3% mom/4% yoy. I would argue the USD would rally harder on a big NFP print, than selloff on a weaker print. China CPI/PPI (Sat 09:30 AEDT) – The data falls when markets are closed, so there is some gapping risk in Chinese assets and their proxies. Here the market looks for CPI at -0.2% and PPI inflation at -3%. Amid the disinflationary/deflationary backdrop, there are increasing calls for further monetary policy easing.
Editors' picks
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by Pepperstone
14