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Us500

S&P500: Channel Up is holding on 4H.The S&P500 maintains its steady uptrend since the October 27th bottom, inside a Channel Up pattern. This (on a projected +7.15% 2nd bullish wave) targets above the R3 July 27th High (TP = 4,650). Being however overbought on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 70.276, MACD = 22.060, ADX = 31.456), we will be ready to short if the price crosses under the 4H MA50 and target the 4H MA200 (TP = 4,400). See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
Dow Jones Index (US30): Top-Down Analysis & Trading Plan Dow Jones Index is consolidating on a key daily horizontal resistance. Analysing an intraday price action, we can spot a horizontal range on a 4H. I would suggest waiting for a breakout of the support of the range - 4H candle close below 34760 - as a solid bearish confirmation. A bearish continuation will be expected at least to 34500 then. Bullish violation of the resistance of the range will make the setup invalid. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by VasilyTrader
3
S&P500 The final pull back before Santa's rally!The S&P500 index / US500 has been on the strongest 2 week rise since October 2022, which was at the very start of the Fibonacci Channel Up you see on this chart. The index has established the 1day MA50 as the new long term Support and may test it soon if we expect it follow a similar course as the October-November 2022 rally, which made a short term pull back after rising by +12.20%. That pull back happened after reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level and declined slightly under the 0.382. Typical technical retrace. It then resumed the rally to complete a +17.30% rise. Buy that pull back as it will most likely be the last before Santa's rally to +17.30%. Target 4800. Note: The price is currently on the same 1day CCI level as October 25th. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheCryptagon
SPX at a decisive point Against our expectations, the rollover in the Chinese stock market has not materialized, and the SPX broke above the downward-sloping channel. Currently, the SPX trades near the $4,500 price tag. In the following days, we will pay close attention to whether it will manage to hold above the upper bound of the channel. If it fails, it will raise our suspicion over the potential reversal. Contrarily, if the SPX succeeds, it will be positive in the short term. On top of watching the channel, we will monitor RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart. To support a bullish thesis, we would like to see Stochastic and MACD keep rising and the RSI break above 70 points. However, a flattening of MACD and Stochastic combined with a failure of RSI to perform a breakout will act as a warning sign. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of SPX within a downward-sloping channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the channel’s upper bound. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
S&P500 Cup and Handle paid off. Now brace for Xmas rally.The S&P500 index (SPX) fulfilled our previous Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern, as even though it had a week closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it eventually bottomed and has since been on a 3-week rebound that broke above the Handle, turning the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) into a Support again. Perhaps the strongest technical development of the week is the emerging formation of a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD. Historically those are formed in the middle of strong rallies, even during a Bear Cycle correction (such as on July 18 2022). Even though a 1 week correction similar to the October 31 2022 1W candle is possible, we expect a new All Time High (ATH) at 4900 (Target 2) at least, as every rally since the October 10 2022 market bottom, has completed at least a +20.19% rise. Even on the short-term, we expect a 'Christmas rally' to test the bottom of the ATH Zone at 4700 by the end of December, assuming the 1D MA50 of course supports. Our longer term perspective has the psychological 5000 target in frame as it is slightly below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension from the July 24 High. This projection is made based on that July 24 High itself, which was been on the 1.5 Fib extension from the January 30 High. Are you looking for a 1 week pull-back to buy or you are already on board for a 'Santa rally'? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
2
S&P500: Over July's Channel Down. Big bullish breakout.S&P500 crossed over the Channel Down that started in late July, turned bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.269, MACD = 21.240, ADX = 31.244) and ahead of the U.S. CPI report is targeting the R2 level. If today's 1D candle closes over the top of the Channel Down, aim at the R2 without a pullback (TP = 4,530). If it closes under it, buy after a pullback near the 1D MA50, with the same target. Long term, we are targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 4,690), as this is the technical target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which was validated by the 1D RSI Double Bottom on October 27th. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
Trouble lies aheadAs the Chinese stocks are starting to show signs of weakness after a few days of upside movement, we expect the same scenario to play out in the U.S. market. With that said, the setup we introduced in a previous article remains valid. To support a thesis about a bearish reversal, we want to see MACD fail at breaking into the bullish zone on the daily chart; in addition to that, we want to see RSI and Stochastic continue declining. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows two Chinese stock market indices we are paying close attention to. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the weekly chart of MACD. A breakout below the midpoint is something to watch in the following weeks. If MACD succeeds in breaking below zero points, it will be very bearish. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
8
US500 - Break or Make ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. DAILY: Left Chart 📊 From a long-term perspective, US500 has been trading bearishly within the confines of a descending broadening wedge marked in red. Currently , it is approaching the upper boundary, which acts as a non-horizontal resistance. 📈 For the bulls to maintain control and assume dominance from a macro perspective, a breakthrough above 4420.0 is essential. Meanwhile , there's still potential for the bears to exert influence and drive the price lower. H1: Right Chart From a short-term viewpoint, US500 remains bullish; however, the momentum appears to be weakening as the recent price action has been relatively flat, occurring within the boundaries of the orange channel. 📉 For the bears to seize control and trigger a bearish scenario, a drop below the last low in the orange channel, around 4360.0, is necessary. Meanwhile , the bulls will retain control unless this key level is breached. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheSignalyst
4
NAS100 – up 8 straight days & the chase is heating up We see the NAS100 up for 8 straight days, with price breaking the July downtrend and testing the 12 Oct swing high – a record closing high for Microsoft clearly helping. Naturally, we don’t see the NAS100 up for 8 days in a row too frequently, and since 2010 we’ve seen this run of form 32 times. It can be quite compelling to short a market having had such a stretch, but running the backtest I find if I bought the NAS100 on the 8th up day, 53% of the time I would rally for a 9th – in fact, five days later the index would be higher 65% of the time. Granted, in many of those years the US equity markets were in a bull market and pullbacks were buying opportunities, but it still suggests momentum favours the brave. Let’s not forget the NAS100 futures haven’t closed lower in the month of November since 2011 – although a 6.4% rally MTD is punchy.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
S&P500 and VIX. A tale of two opposites.It's no secret that the stock market and in this particular example, the S&P500 (chart on the left), is negatively correlated to the Volatility Index (chart on the right). What we do want to bring to your attention however is how tightly this correlation has been in the past 12 months with VIX's Falling Wedge having the price on its middle, almost on perfect symmetry with the S&P's Bullish Megaphone. See the recurring sequences within both patterns (tops/ red, bottoms/ greens, consolidations/ blue arcs) and how inversely correlated they are. Right now VIX is headed for its Support where it ends to rebound and consolidate for around 1 month, before sharply declining for a new Lower Low. Similarly we expect the S&P500 to rise some more before peaking for the short-term, then pull-back to consolidate and then stage an aggressive end-of-the-year rally. Can it repeat a +20% rally as the previous 2 rally legs of the past 12 months? Doubtful, but potentially taking profits when VIX bottoms is certainly a good indicator to have in mind. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
2
Sentiment ping-pongAs the bearish setup we introduced last week was not triggered, we continue to watch the SPX on the sidelines and wait for a better trade opportunity to emerge. In the meantime, we want to highlight a persistent positive correlation between the U.S. and Chinese markets. It is amazing how, once again, the reversal in the Chinese stocks preceded the same price action in the U.S. stock market (by just a few days). Therefore, we will keep paying attention to what is happening overseas in the foreseeable future as well. With that said, we will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX and simple support/resistance levels. If SPX breaks above Resistance 1, it will further bolster a bullish case in the short term. However, a failure to break above this level (and hold above it) will raise our suspicion about the potential reversal. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays daily charts of the HSI (Hang Seng Index) and the SSE (Shanghai Composite Index). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
8
S&P500 Over the 1day MA50 but short term sell opportunityThe S&P500 index / US500 broke and closed over the 1day MA50 on Friday, for the first time in almost 2 months. Even though it is a major long term bullish development, we see a short term sell opportunity as the 1day RSI is reversing, signalling a loss of strength on the 5 day rally. The long term pattern remains a Bearish Megaphone, so such minor technical correction is justified. Sell and target 4270 (Fibonacci 0.382, a level always reached inside the Megaphone's corrections). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TheCryptagon
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: risk fires up with shorts crushed We knew it was an event heavy week and that extreme fear was priced into risky assets, but the ensuing moves across markets were prolific. The question for this week is whether to chase, to buy weakness within the ST trend or to counter. The fact we saw US 10-year Treasuries drop 26bp on the week to 4.57%, with 10-year real rates -23bp to 2.17%, catching a market positioned heavily short. As buyers covered and even reversed in US Treasury exposures, the pressure valve was released on the equity market, where the result was the biggest weekly gain in the US500 (+5.9%) of the year, reclaiming the 50-day MA. High short interest stocks went on a blistering run. The NAS100 had its best weekly gain since January and price eyes trend resistance at 15,181. The VIX index was crushed 6.4 vols to 14.9%, while High Yield credit spreads tightened 39bp. The market has certainly questioned the US exceptionalism story, which had resulted in so much capital flowing into USDs. While the US Treasury Department’s preference to skew upcoming bond issuance to shorter tenors helped flatten the US 2s v 10s yield curve, we also saw a clear cooling in the US nonfarm payrolls report, marrying with a weaker ISM manufacturing and services, and consumer confidence report. A weaker USD has helped risk FX implied volatility trades to the lowest levels since 2022, and we saw the USD universally shunned, losing 1.4% w/w, with high beta FX (CLP, COP, MXN, NZD, AUD) all putting on a show and seeing some huge gains. GBPUSD stopped short of 1.2400, with EURUSD eyeing 1.0750. Positioning has played a big part in the moves, with both bond and equity shorts covering hard, and risk hedges being unwound, amid a dusting of aggressive organic longs being put on. With a decent amount of the re-positioning out of the way, while a cooling of data is acceptable, if the economics darkens there will be a tipping point where it negatively impact sentiment and we’ll likely see equity and bond rally concurrently. The fact that SOFR rates futures priced an additional 20bp of cuts for 2024 (to price 106bp of cuts) highlights the markets vision of slowing economic trends. Debating when the first rate cut comes from the Fed is all the rage again – where the market prices this action at the May FOMC meeting. Look for US mega-cap tech to work well if this theme gets traction. The week ahead As we look ahead at the new week, we see the event risk is on the light side, so we may see the market pause for breath. With 17 different Fed speakers, including Chair Powell, due to speak this week we may see some modest push-back on easier financial conditions and that may unsettle risk. My preference is to buy weakness in equity and risk FX, as it feels like the rally in long-end US Treasuries has been a tad too powerful. An open mind is always essential. Out of the US data and central bank chatter, the RBA meeting, China data and data flow from the LATAM region will garner interest. Trades I like - short NOKSEK, USDCLP, EURAUD, EURCHF (into 0.9670) and US crude. On the long side AUDCAD, coffee and GBPCAD. Key event risk for traders to navigate: RBA meeting (Tuesday 14:30 AEDT) – the meeting offers a clear risk for both AUD and AUS200 exposures. While economists are largely on the same page with a 25bp hike, the rates market prices a hike at 60%, with a total of 43bp of hikes priced to peak rate in June 2024. The base case is for a 25bp hike, but it certainly wouldn’t be a complete shock to see them on hold. AUDUSD looks constructive for 0.6600, however, I also like short EURAUD trades for a swing move to 1.6250. RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (Friday 11:30 AEDT) – the RBA will release its new economic projections, with core CPI likely to be revised up 40bp for Dec 23 to 4.4%, and headline CPI to 4.5%. We should still see the RBA getting back to the 2-3% inflation target range by Dec 2025. Unemployment should be revised lower, while GDP assumptions revised modestly higher in the years out. China trade balance (Tuesday – no set time) – The market consensus is for a further improvement in the pace of decline with imports to come in -4.5% and exports at -2.9%. China CPI/PPI (Wed 12:30 AEDT) – the market looks for CPI to print -0.2% and PPI -2.8% (-2.5%). Unlikely to be a major event risk, with USDCNH driven by the USD. UK Q3 GDP (Friday 18:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for -0.1% qoq / 0.5% yoy, which are hardly inspiring growth numbers. While GDP is old news, the data could still influence the GBP given how sensitive traders are to growth metrics. Positioning shows a market heavily short of GBP, notably real money accounts who hold an extensive net short exposure. Leverage funds (mostly hedge funds) hold a decent short exposure too and have built on it over the week. Mexico CPI (Wed 23:00 AEDT) – The consensus estimate is for headline CPI to come in at 4.28% yoy and core CPI at 5.5% yoy (from 5.76%). With the market pricing the first rate cut in the March to May period it would take a very weak CPI print to rush that pricing forward. Still, with Banxico wanting to see greater disinflation before easing, this is a risk for MXN traders’ exposures. Banxico (Mexico) meeting (Friday 06:00 AEDT) – we should almost certainly see interest rates on hold at 11.25%. The bank’s outlook and guidance are where we could see the volatility in MXN. Chile CPI (Wed 22:00 AEDT) – the consensus is that we see CPI inflation at 0.6% mom and 5.1% yoy (unchanged). After cutting by a smaller-than-expected 50bp in the October meeting, and halting its USD purchases we’ve seen a breathtaking rally in the CLP (Chilean peso). While the market expects another 50bp cut in the Dec BCCh meeting, the CLP will take its direction from broad risk sentiment in markets and the CPI print may have a short-lived impact. I like USDCLP further lower. Key corporate earnings – FY earnings from WBC (6 Nov) & NAB (9 Nov) Central bank speakers BoE - Huw Pill (7 Nov at 04:00 AEDT & 9 Nov 19:30 AEDT), Gov Bailey (8 Nov 20:30 AEDT) ECB – Lane (8 Nov 19:45 AEDT & 9 Nov 19:10 AEDT), President Lagarde (10 Nov 04:30 AEDT) Fed – Chair Powell (10 Nov 06:00 AEDT)
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
US500- Keylevels - DailySpectacular comeback for us500, but now let's see what will happen next week. It seems that it manages to close both the week and the day well and thus leaves room for another climb up to the area of 4398-4400. Here we have an ultimate test for buyers, let's see if they want to leave and collect the profits or if they will still stay in the game. Buyers must show strength at that level as well. As I see the price action, I would like to see a rejection from 4400, followed by a retest of the support from where to take new liquidity and where I will also be a buyer.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by sfc95