S&P500: bottomed on Inverse Head and Shoulders.S&P500 turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.446, MACD = -21.350, ADX = 28.601) as it is under the 4H MA50 since Tuesday. Even though it is on a 4H MA200 rejection, the short term technical pattern that has emerged is an Inverse Head and Shoulders, about to complete the Right Shoulder. With the long term pattern being a Channel Up, we can technically target its top (TP = 6,200), which is under the 2.0 Fib target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders.
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Us500
"US500 / SPX500" Indices Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500 / SPX500" Indices market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull trade after the breakout of MA level 5960 (OR) Entry in Pullback 5820
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 6100 (or) escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release.
Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️
Based on the fundamental analysis, I would conclude that the US500 / SPX500 is : Bullish
Reasons:
US economic growth: The US economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.5% in 2023, driven by a strong labor market, increasing business investment, and a rebound in the housing market.
Monetary policy support: The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at a low level of 1.5%, which is expected to support borrowing and spending in the economy.
Fiscal policy support: The US government has announced a series of fiscal stimulus measures, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which are expected to support economic growth.
Corporate earnings growth: US companies are expected to report increasing earnings in 2023, driven by a strong global economy and a competitive dollar.
Valuation: The US500 / SPX500 is currently trading at a relatively high valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20, but this is still below its historical average.
However, it's essential to consider the following risks:
Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth could reduce demand for US stocks and drive down the index.
Trade tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and other countries, particularly China, could impact the US trade balance and economic growth.
Inflation concerns: Rising inflation could lead to higher interest rates, which could negatively impact the economy and the stock market.
Key Fundamental Indicators:
US GDP growth: 2.5% (2023 estimate)
Unemployment rate: 3.5% (2023 estimate)
Inflation rate: 2.0% (2023 estimate)
Interest rates: 1.5% (2023 estimate)
Corporate earnings growth: 10.0% (2023 estimate)
Market Sentiment:
Bullish sentiment: 75%
Bearish sentiment: 25%
Neutral sentiment: 0%
Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
What do you think?Hello guys
We came with the analysis of us500.
There are two scenarios:
1- From here, open a long trade and move to the resistance range, and in case of a further drop, add volume at the second point.
2- Wait until the price reaches the resistance range and open a sale transaction in the two specified ranges.
What do you think?
*Trade safely with us*
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,924.14
1st Support: 5,838.66
1st Resistance: 5,964.07
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P500 no major pullbacks expected in 2025. Year-end Target 7200The S&P500 (SPX) has started the first week of the new year (2025) on a positive note following a red December. In fact December was only the 3rd red month of the whole 2024. Based on its 16-year Channel Up pattern, this bullish trend isn't expected to slowdown in 2025.
In fact, no major pull-backs are expected this year, as the end sequence of 2024 resembles the August 2013, which led to a very bullish 18-month period after.
As you can see, the start of the Channel Up, which was the bottom of the 2008 - 2009 U.S. Housing Crisis followed the same stages as the pattern after the March 2020 COVID bottom. The bottoms have been stage (a) with (b) being the first short-term pull-back and (c) the second, which was also a 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test. It appears that we are currently on stage (d), where as explained led the way to a bullish 18-month period.
The peak of the early Channel Up pattern was on the 2.786 Fibonacci extension from the stage (c) bottom and the 18-month period ended on the 1.382 time Fib extension. If we take the same measurements on the post COVID pattern, the 1.382 time Fib extension lands on October 2026. For 2025 alone we can expect a +23.73% rise from the last red candle of (d), if the post August 2013 12-month pattern is followed, which gives us an end-of-year (2025) Target of 7200.
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Bullish bounce off overlap support?S&P500 is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,853.42
1st Support: 5,788.43
1st Resistance: 5,926.47
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P500 First 4H Death Cross in 5 months! Is it bearish indeed?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a decline since Thursday and despite the thin holiday volume and less trading days, is a sign of weakness on the short-term. Especially having completed a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame on December 24.
In fact, this is the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months (since July 29). During that sequence, the index was under heavy seasonal selling pressure but initially rose following the Death Cross. Soon after though it collapsed lower on bad macroeconomics.
This time however, the trend turned bearish immediately after the Death Cross. The buy signal in August was the Aug 05 4H RSI Double Bottom. This time, the RSI has already started rising since yesterday.
In our opinion, this suggests that the selling pressure by the 4H Death Cross is most likely over and we can technically see the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up.
The most common % rise these past few months has been +7.19%. If we count that from the recent December 20 Low, then we should be expecting a 6200 Target by late January - early February.
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es1! retests 5kes1! appears poised for a larger move down, based on the smaller timeframe count .
this leads me to believe that es1! has entered a larger fourth wave. historically, these waves take an average of 2 months to play out and typically result in a 12% decrease from the high before completing.
wave 4's often retrace back into the territory of the prior degree's wave 4, and i expect this one to follow suit.
pay attention to the green trendline i've drawn on the chart,,, it serves as a solid guide for where i anticipate es1! to find a bottom. dipping below the trendline is acceptable, provided we don't see any weekly candle closes beneath it. even if a weekly candle does close below, a strong recovery the following week, such as a gap-up scenario , could invalidate the breakdown.
there’s not much else to add here, as the chart is fairly straightforward. keep an eye on the trendline and monitor weekly closes for confirmation.
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S&P500 The new Bullish Leg has begun.The S&P500 index (SPX) has completed 4 straight green 1D candles, and is already trading above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. With its 1D RSI also reaching its MA (yellow trend-line), we view last Friday's candle as the new Higher Low at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Up.
This pattern is so far highly symmetrical with each of the 2 completed Legs so far, following an a-b-c-d structure. Right now we are on step (a) that is the start of the Bullish Leg. Based on this model, we are expected to approach the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up on step (b) then make the mid-Leg pull-back to (c) and then resume the uptrend for the Bullish Leg's top on (d).
We expect that to be on at least 6300, which is marginally below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, being the minimum level that each of the previous 2 Bullish Legs hit.
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S&P500: Recovery mode activated. Next stop 6,200.S&P500 turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.702, MACD = 16.670, ADX = 24.717) as it rebounded near the 1D MA100, which happened to be just under the bottom of the long term Channel Up and has recovered more than 50% of last week's correction. In the meantime, the 1D RSI is making a bullish reversal idential to the last two bottoms. The two prior bullish waves of the Channel Up topped on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our target (TP = 6,200).
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Nasdaq100 Short Weekly ChartNasdaq100 Short Weekly Chart, Price after big and small AB=CD + BB+ Trendline+ Engulfing candle at the top, price should go now to Take profit 1 area, and from there if will not be a real support it will go to test the SMA200, for take profit 2 odds are much more small but possible
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,869.57
1st Support: 5,707.08
1st Resistance: 6,093.53
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SPY, Major Warning has been signalled for the stock market. The stock markets have been rattled by a concerning development that historically has been a precursor to increased volatility and economic uncertainty - the uninversion of the yield curve.
In December, long-term interest rates fell below short-term rates, reversing the inversion that had been in place. This yield curve uninversion is often viewed as a potential warning sign of an impending recession, as it has preceded the last seven recessions in the United States.
Looking back at past data, the last time the yield curve was uninverted in this manner was in 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a major market downturn. Prior to that, it uninverted in 2006-2007, shortly before the Great Recession hit in 2008-2009.
While the yield curve uninversion does not guarantee an imminent recession, it has proven to be a reliable leading indicator of increased market volatility and economic slowdown.
Trade safe,
Trader Leo
S&P500 5 month Channel Up bottomed. Bullish reversal started.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up since the August 5th bottom.
Wednesday's Fed fueled correction crossed under the 1day MA50 but stabilized yesterday and today found support over the 1day MA100 and rebounded.
This low is very close to the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1day MA100 was the level that supported the early September pull back.
The 1day RSI is also reversing, and the 3 times it posted a similar pattern inside the Channel Up, it was a bottom.
Buy and target 6200 (+7.10% from the bottom).
Previous chart:
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Potential bullish rise?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could rise to the 38.3% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 5,868.52
1st Support: 5,788.39
1st Resistance: 5,930.95
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P500 hit the MA50 (1d). Huge buy signal.S&P500 hit today its MA50 (1d) following the Fed Rate announcement.
At the same time, it is testing the bottom of August's Channel Up.
As long as it closes daily inside the pattern, this is a strong buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6200 (+5.75% rise similar to the previous one).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) hit its 3 month Support Zone. If it reverses on it, that might be an even better signal for a buy entry.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500 entering a new Bull Cycle according to the Dollar IndexThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 2022 market bottom, as it recovered from the Inflation Crisis of 2022. Despite the All Time Highs (ATH) that it is currently trading at, we have strong evidence based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that it is entering a new, more structured Bull Cycle.
As you can see on this cross chart analysis on the 1W time-frame, the market has been on a multi-year uptrend with clear Phases, ever since the March 2009 bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. At the same time, the DXY (blue trend-line) initiated its own Channel Up.
Every time the DXY bottomed, the S&P500 transitioned from the more aggressive, recovery phase (blue Arc pattern) of the Bear Cycle to a more structured (green) Channel Up. As long as the DXY remains below its (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line, the uptrend of the Channel Up is being extended. Once broken, the stock market starts to form a top, which is natural as a strong/ expensive dollar is far from ideal for buying risky assets like stocks.
In any case, it appears that the DXY bottomed in late September 2024 and rebounded aggressively. This is rebound is the exact behavior it has when the previous two (green) Channel Up patterns started. As a result, we believe that the S&P500 has ahead of it around 4 years of growth within this Channel Up, whose pull-backs/ corrections will be the cyclical buy opportunities.
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S&P500: Channel Up ready to explode to 6,175S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.112, MACD = 49.220, ADX = 50.110) as it is extending August's Channel Up. The 4H RSI is forming an Arc pattern that is much like the below 4H MA50 consolidation of October 1st - 8th. After that was completed, the price rallied to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension to form a HH on the Channel Up. The 1.786 Fib was the target of the next bullish wave as well. Consequently, we are long on SPX, aiming again for that Fib (TP = 6,175).
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