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Market uncertainty spreadsIn the previous article about SPX, we discussed how the market conditions were changing and that a prolonged period of selling could be upon us (just like in 2022). Then, on Friday, we articulated our worries that the market was reaching oversold territory in the short term, making a case for a brief rebound (up to Resistance 1 and potentially slightly below Resistance 2). Subsequently, we saw the market rise slightly and almost reach Resistance 1. But over the weekend, a war broke out in the Middle East after the terrorist organization Hamas attacked Israel, which caused the U.S. indices to drop after the futures market opened (though we still have not seen a very significant move to the upside after a month of selling, which might be one thing to consider). A further escalation of this conflict risks sending oil prices much higher, which will cause inflationary pressures around the globe (including the U.S.) As a result, this may threaten FED’s attempts to tame inflation and avoid a recession. Besides that, this conflict also risks spiraling into a broader war, with the United States getting involved (especially as media outlets report U.S. citizens among casualties or those taken hostage). That has negative implications for market forecasting visibility in the very short term. Therefore, it might be proper to get out of the market and wait on the sidelines until the picture becomes more clear again. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish (but the trend is weakening) Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
2
GOLD → Bounce off support. How long will it last?OANDA:XAUUSD forms a false breakout of support late Friday, after which the market buys out the entire decline and forms an almost bullish takeover, closing Friday above Monday's close and the entire weekly consolidation The euphoria from the NFP (negative news for the dollar), may not last that long, and after a small technical correction, the main movement may continue. There are several reasons for this. The main fundamental background for the dollar index is bullish, Powell (FED) is not going to lose momentum yet, as in every address there are always references to the rising inflation and the tight market, which they are trying to fight . By the way, there are several important news items being published this week. Worth paying attention to: PPI (Mom), FOMC Meeting Minutes GDP, Core CPI, CPI, Initial Jobless Claims The TVC:DXY is forming a correction. The previously broken resistance at 105.272 may be tested soon. Most likely from this level, based on the global fundamental background, the growth may continue, but first we need to wait for the fundamentals of the coming week and a retest of the level from a technical point of view. Regarding gold. From a technical point of view, the market has not reached the mentioned target. I am interested in the 1809 level, below which there is a huge pool of liquidity that beckons market managers. Gold, even with increased liquidity on the news, does not reach this area and reverses. Friday's candle forms the preconditions for the local growth to continue on Monday ( it is worth paying attention to the level of 1829-1830, which can be bought against ). The nearest target for local maneuver is the level of 1856. But in the medium term, I continue to wait for further decline, especially to the level of 1809 and 1800, as the US monetary policy is still tight to reduce the cost of production, so after a small pullback, the growth of the dollar and the fall of gold may continue OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:US500 COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:SI1! Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
34
A Traders’ Playbook; The markets doing the work of central banksAfter a strong tightening of US financial conditions – primarily led by higher real rates and USD – we hear increasing acknowledgement that the markets are doing the heavy lifting of central banks and replacing the need for them to hike the Fed funds rate. That was the message we heard last week from Fed members Daly, Goolsbee and Bostic. This suggests that if we get a hot US CPI print this week then market players will increase exposure to yield curve steepeners trades, with reduced interest to short US 2yr Treasuries - In turn, this should limit the upside in the USD, given the near-zero correlation between the USD and the 2s v 10s Treasury curve. With a focus on the US bond market, consider the US Treasury department will be issuing $101b in 3-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries this week and that could move markets around. Technically, we are seeing that the USD appears to be consolidating, and while it comes with a hefty dose of risk, momentum accounts are again looking at the JPY shorts. NZDJPY longs look interesting for a potential breakout, especially with China coming back online, where we can see ‘green shoots’ appearing in economics. For those whose strategy thrives in higher vol regimes, then cast their eyes to LATAM FX, where outsized moves in the COP, CLP and MXN have come up on the day trader's radar. US CPI aside, it will be a central banker fest this week, where an extensive list of Fed, BoE and ECB officials will be speaking at NABE (National Association of Business Economics) and IMF conferences. It feels like the market has made up its mind that the ECB and BoE hiking cycle is over, so Fed officials could move markets more intently. We also get US Q3 earnings roll in, with the big money centres in play, and this puts the US30 index front and centre for index traders this week. For the political watchers, the process of finding a new House speaker will evolve and that could have big implications for the next shutdown negotiations from 17 November. Amid rising geopolitical concerns crude remains front of mind, and we watch the reaction for the futures open, with S&P 500 and NAS100 futures skewed modestly lower on the re-open. Marquee economic data to navigate: US CPI (12 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – arguably the marquee event risk of the week. The economist’s consensus is we see both headline and core CPI increase 0.3% MoM. This should take the year-on-year clip on headline CPI to 3.6% headline (from 3.7%), and core CPI at 4.1% (4.3%). The market’s pricing of headline CPI (in CPI fixings) is 0.25% MoM and 3.54% YoY. A 3-handle on core CPI would be welcomed news and see USD longs cover and see XAUUSD and NAS100 push higher. Above 4.3% could see pricing for the November FOMC increase to around 40% (currently 29%) and see bond yields rise, putting renewed upside into the USD. US swaps pricing per FOMC meeting US PPI inflation (11 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – final demand is expected at 0.3% MoM, with core PPI eyed at 2.3% yoy. The market is less sensitive to PPI than the CPI print, but a big beat/miss to consensus could hold implications for how economists estimate PCE inflation (due 27 Oct) China new loans (no set day this week) – While incredibly hard to forecast, the market sees a rebound in credit with new yuan loans eyed at CNY2.5t (1.35t). Above consensus numbers could see China/HK equity build on Friday’s impressive rally and see AUD & NZD outperform. China CPI/PPI inflation (13 Oct 12:30 AEDT) – The lowflation regime in China continues but should gently rise to 0.2% (from 0.1%) on consumer prices and -2.4% on producer prices. USDCNH has consolidated through China’s Golden Week holiday, but should we see a trend emerge, the direction of this cross could influence G10 pairs. China trade data (13 October no set time) – The modest improvement seen in the China economic data flow should continue with exports expected at-7.3% (from -8.8%) and imports at -6% (from -7.3%). Better-than-feared numbers could see China equity push higher. BoE credit conditions report (12 Oct 19:30 AEDT) – we get the UK monthly GDP and industrial production (both due at 17:00 AEDT) and both should remain weak. The BoE’s credit data should also be lowball, notably given what we’ve seen in recent mortgage approval numbers. Traders will be paying attention to BoE speeches this week with swaps pricing essentially pricing the BoE to have finished its hiking cycle. Mexico CPI (9 Oct 23:00 AEDT) – the market eyes headline CPI at 4.5% (from 4.64%) & core CPI at 5.75% (6.08%). The MXN finds few friends – largely due to weaker crude prices – but local data could play a greater role this week. USDMXN has found supply into 18.40, but swing traders may look at the 17.90 area to buy pullbacks for another leg higher. US Q2 earnings this week – Citi, JP Morgan (13 Oct), Bank of America, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth This week we get the US big money centres out with earnings. The focus falls on asset quality, loan demand, net interest margins (NIM) and any commentary on the recent tightening of broad financial conditions. A focus on the US30 index When we look at the companies included in the US30, there are only two banks (of the 30 constituents) - Goldman's and JP Morgan. However, the US30 holds an incredibly high relationship with the XLF ETF (S&P financial sector ETF), with a 10-day correlation of 93%. With so many of the major financial institutions reporting, assuming this relationship holds up, the US30 should mirror the movement in the US banks. Another important risk for US30 traders this week is how the market reacts to earnings from United Health (UNH - report on 13 October). UNH commands a massive 10% weight on the US30, arguably the biggest weight on the index. UNH is not a stock that CFD traders look at as closely as a say Tesla or Nvidia, given its more defensive price action. It’s one for the range traders, where buying into $460 and shorting into $520 has worked well over the past 12 months. However, given the weighting, US30 traders should be aware of the influence the stock can offer. The market prices an implied move of 2.6% move on the day of UNHs reporting, which is in fitting with the average price change over the past 8 quarterly reporting periods. UNH has seen some large percentage moves over earnings and recall in the last earnings report the stock rallied 7.2% - so a sizeable rally/decline would influence the US30 given the weight. While macro factors such as moves in bond yields, the USD and oil prices will influence the US30, one can see that earnings this week could also play a major role – time to buy the dip, or are we about to see a leg lower in the index? Central bank speakers Fed speakers – on first blush Fed governor Christopher Waller may be the marquee speech to listen to ECB speakers – A big week of ECB speakers to navigate – EUR traders, how do you like your noise? As said, the market is fairly sure that the ECB are on hold for a lengthy period. BoE speakers – with the markets feeling the BoE wont hike further, comments from BoE officials Mann, Pill and Bailey will be closely watched to increase confidence on that pricing RBA speakers – Assistant governor Christopher Kent (11 Oct 12:00 AEDT)
TVC:US10Y
by Pepperstone
BAKEUSDT → Breaking through resistance opens up the potential BINANCE:BAKEUSDT is trying to move into the phase of realization of accumulated potential. A consolidation above the 0.1421 level will be a good starting point. If we break through the resistance of the range, we can get a gorgeous bullish potential (targets are indicated on the chart) BINANCE:BTCUSD shows good dynamics for the medium term. The price after the false breakdown of resistance does not fall and there are prerequisites for a possible strengthening of the price to 30000, which will give a great kick in the butt to altcoins if the total capitalization increases. From a fundamental point of view, the cryptocurrency is still turbulent and there is not much bullish news (strong news). But bitcoin is showing strength relative to the SP500 ( CAPITALCOM:US500 ) - and that's good for us. In terms of technical analysis BAKE: the price breaks the resistance of the annual descending wedge and we get a signal for further strengthening of the price. In the nearest future the market may test the previously broken level of 0.1421 and if the bulls successfully consolidate the position, the price may give a start towards 0.2339 and 0.2840. Moving averages indicate consolidation and show a hint of something interesting. Support levels: previously broken wedge boundary, 0.1421, 0.1161. Resistance levels: 0.1580, 0.1882, 0.2339. Since we see the breakout of the resistance of the figure, in the long term I expect the formation of the realization of the accumulated potential in the form of a bullish impulse to 0.2339, 0.2840. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
21
Prolonged period of selling ahead?Last Thursday, we highlighted a rally in the Chinese stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising as much as 3%. In addition to that, we speculated about the potential relief in SPX, with emphasis on resistance near $4,335 (which failed to be taken out). Today, we want to draw attention to Chinese stocks again. The Hang Send Index fell approximately 3% overnight, erasing last week’s attempt to move higher. Besides that, we are starting to notice gold and the U.S. dollar behaving similarly to last year during an extended period of selling pressure (when gold was moving lower with stocks and the U.S. dollar was strengthening). In our opinion, the environment is changing, and we could be in for a resumption of a prolonged selling period (potentially transposing to a market crash). We maintain the view that we have seen one of the most deceitful bear market rallies in stocks and cryptocurrencies over the past year. Interestingly, during that time, many people began to relax their stances in expectation of a soft landing. However, we have been skeptical about the FED’s ability to deliver one for a while. In fact, we have been more inclined toward a scenario with the U.S. economy sliding into recession, which continues to be the case. In the coming weeks, we will pay close attention to unemployment, which will pretty much guarantee recession if it rises another 0.6% (considering the fact that each 1% rise in unemployment coincided with a recession since the 1940s). On top of that, we will observe the situation in the real estate segment and the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors. As for technicals on the daily chart, we will watch DM+ and DM-, which we want to see diverging, with ADX rising simultaneously (suggesting a bearish trend is growing in strength). Furthermore, we will also look at RSI, MACD, and Stochastic, which we want to see pointing to the downside (their reversal to the upside will be bullish). In regard to price levels, we will pay close attention to support near $4.261 and resistance near $4,335. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
11
S&P500 Bottom of the Megaphone. Buy over the MA50 (4h).S&P500 is trading inside a Falling Megaphone pattern, having completed 20 days under the MA50 (4h). That is the buy break out signal, as it was on the previous bullish leg of the Megaphone. The price hit the MA200 (1d) and bounced. Bullish signal so far. Trading Plan: 1. Buy when the price closes over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 4400 (between the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the MA200 (4h)). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is trading inside a Falling Wedge of its own. Take profit if its Falling Resistance gets hit before the 4400 target. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
4
S&P500: Megaphone bottom buy.The S&P500 is technically oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 32.251, MACD = -54.210, ADX = 44.088) but is gathering some bullish momentum on 4H (RSI = 41.446) as the price hit the 1D MA200 and bottom of the Megaphone to form a LL. In addition, it hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level from March's low. This has high chances of evolving into a technical LH rebound, especially with the 4H RSI on a Bullish Divergence. If it holds, we are long, targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 4,375). If it fails, we will short, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 4,115). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500 targeting 5800 based on this overlooked pattern?The S&P500 index / US500 is testing the Rising Support of Higher Lows this week, stemming directly from the bottom of the 2022 correction. A symmetric Support is just underneath and this pattern has various (dashed or bold) stemming from the Bear Cycle. What many may fail to see though is a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that is forming the Right Shoulder. If that's the case, then S&P can target the Fibonacci 2.0 level at 5800 as early as mid 2025! Too much to ask?? Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPXLong
by TheCryptagon
S&P500 It is very important that this Support Cluster holds.The S&P500 (SPX) is testing the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 12-month Channel Up pattern. It is vital for the uptrend that the following Support Cluster holds, as if broken, the next Demand/ Support Zone is seen considerably lower, in the low 3800s. Back to the Support Zone. Besides the bottom of the Channel Up, we have the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) moving parallel to that and has been unbroken since March 24. More importantly, the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) a former Resistance turned into Support after May's break-out, is marginally below the 1D MA200 and on a former Resistance Zone, which in the past 18 months, only broken twice. As long as the price closes 1D candles above this critical Support cluster, we expect a short-term (at least) rise to test the top of the Channel Down and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 4430. If the Support fails, expect a greater and perhaps quicker/ more aggressive decline towards 3830 and the former Support Zone. Notice how the 1D RSI pattern resembles the August - September 2022 correction. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
5
S&P500 Will the 1week MA50 and Fib 0.5 hold? 2008 and 2000 show The S&P500 / US500 opened yet another week on red. Last week it closed on a 3 week red streak and is approaching the 1week MA50 and MA100 as well as the Fibonacci 0.5 level. The Fib 0.5 and 1week MA50 in particular are of high importance as they are what seperated the 2022 stock market correction from the heavy Bear Cycles of 2008 and 2000. As you can see both the mortgage crisis and dotcom bubble after they crossed under the 1week MA200 and rebounded, they got rejected on the 1week MA50 / Fib 0.5 Resistance cluster and didn't give the extension that we have in 2023 so far. Often when a Resistance level breaks, the market tends to test it as a Support in order to discover demand momentum. Do you think they will hold? Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPX
by TheCryptagon
Things are turning ugly, but relief might be on a wayToday, we want to highlight the latest developments in the Chinese stock market, which continues to sell off relentlessly. The Hang Seng Index made a new low near HK$17,352, which translates to a loss of nearly 15% since late July 2023. The decline in the CSI 300 Index is approximately the same. As for the U.S. indices, SPX lost about 8% in the past two months, and Nasdaq 100 lost about 8.2% in the same period. Besides that, VIX has increased to the highest level since late May 2023. Overall, the situation is starting to deteriorate quickly. However, for the past nine days or so, U.S. stocks have been trending down with the Chinese stock market, which brings us to the question of a potential rebound that could be on the horizon before the market moves ultimately lower (or starts recovering); we will assess the situation as it develops. However, prolonged weakness in the Chinese stock market and economy poses a serious threat to the the U.S. market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the potential formation of a downward-sloping channel. If the price rebounds from the lower bound, it will be bullish in the short term. However, a breakout below the bound will be bearish. The extreme price deviation from the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA suggests a retracement toward these moving averages (acting as a correction). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
18
S&P500: Balance sheet extends drop.Will interest rate peak soon?The S&P500 has been declining for more than two months straight reaching the HL trendline from the market bottom. It is useful to look into the Fed's role on this whole long term price action and what better timeframe to use than the 1W. As you can see, the Fed's Balance Sheet (orange) is extending a long term decline that started more than one year ago, while the Interest Rate (teal) continues to rise. You don't need to go back any further than the 2018-2019 period, which was marked by the extensive trade wars between the U.S. and China. The key to recovery was when the Interes Rate peaked and flatlined. That was when the stock market bottomed and growth stability returned to the markets. The recent (almost) two year inflation crisis has the market in an even more advantageous position as it's been one year since it recovered and priced the bottom, despite the fact that the Interest Rate is still rising. Theoretically when the Interest Rate peaks and turns flat, we should see a more stable stock market growth. With the S&P500 on a HL support and the Balance sheet still dropping, do you think the Fed will pull the trigger and soon announce in one of their next meetings an end to rate hikes? ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPX
by InvestingScope
3
A Traders’ playbook – is a tactical turn in the USD upon us?After 11 straight weeks of gains in the USD (DXY index), driven by EURUSD trading into 1.0488, and a key weekly close above the YTD range highs (105.40), we ask whether the dollar can make it a 12th. News that Congress had miraculously pushed out the govt. shutdown for 45 days should be welcomed by risky assets and there is modest gapping risk for the open. Perhaps cynically, the agreement highlights that the US political system is not always completely inept. Also, while we revisit the saga in mid-November, a protracted shutdown, when considered in combination with auto strikes, and student loan repayments would have been the trigger to negatively impacting US Q4 GDP and that may have led to some de-risking. We also now have a firm understanding that the US Labor Department will release nonfarm payrolls data this Friday, as well as the US CPI report (on 12 Oct), which may have not been the case had the govt. shutdown. This puts the 1 November FOMC meeting back on the table as a potential venue for a further 25bp rate hike. With US swaps pricing just 4bp of hikes for the 1 Nov FOMC meeting, one could argue the market had discounted the idea the Fed wasn’t going to be privy to this important data to make an informed call on a November hike. We should see these rate hike expectations lift a touch. Profit taking (in USD longs) aside, one asks where else would you park your capital in G10 FX? The AUD and NZD have stood up of late, but this will take a far better tone on China, and with the Chinese capital markets closed this week for Golden Week that may be an early call. The weekend China PMIs, with manufacturing moving into expansion for the first time since March, will certainly offer a tailwind for these China proxies. However, once again the markets will likely be held hostage by the direction of US bond yields, USD exceptionalism and positioning. Tactically, I like crude to consolidate here below $96, and with it CAD and NOK trades should also lack momentum. Gold is at the mercy of the USD and real rates, but after a huge down week, the bulls will be looking at buy limits into $1810 and hoping for a bit more of a flush out. While price has closed below 4329 support, the US500 holds channel support and I’m warming to longs for 4400/50, with a stop below 4230. Let's see what October brings, but it's encouraging that we’ve seen a pulse in the markets of late. The marquee event risks to navigate this week: US nonfarm payrolls (6 Oct 23:30 AEST) – With Congress miraculously averting a government shutdown US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) becomes a risk event for traders to manage. The consensus for NFP is 165k jobs (the economist’s range sits between 250k to 105k), which would be modestly above the 3-month average of 150k jobs. The U/E rate eyed is expected to tick down to 3.7%, although the participation rate will again play a role in that outcome. Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are expected at 4.3% YoY/0.3% MoM. Simplistically, a NF payrolls print below 140k should see the USD under pressure – above 200k, should see USD buyers, although the extent of the move will be determined by AHEs and the U/E rate. US ADP payrolls (4 Oct 23:15 AEST) – the consensus sits at 150k jobs in the ADP payrolls report (from 177k in August), with the economist’s range of estimates set between 228k and 102k. The market typically responds to the ADP report when we see an outsized beat to consensus (such as we saw in the July and May prints), but with NFP back in play as the highlight this week the ADP report gets somewhat less focus. RBA meeting (3 Oct 14:30 AEST) – it would be a huge surprise if the RBA hiked rates at this meeting and we see interest rate futures placing a lowly 8% chance they lift to 4.35%. More importantly, we see 12bp of hikes priced – a 50% probability - for the November meeting, so the market will marry the RBA’s statement and the guidance for rates against that pricing. A hawkish hold seems the likely outcome here, with modest AUD upside risks at RBA gov Bullock's first meeting at the helm. AUDCHF has been a momentum beast rallying in 11 of the past 12 days – happy to hold longs until price closes below the 8-day EMA. RBNZ meeting (4 Oct 12:00 AEST) – The RBNZ will almost certainly hold rates at 5.5%, but like RBA, market expectations have swung to a 50% chance of a hike in the November RBNZ meeting. Commentary and guidance that suggests they retain the optionality to hike again could drive the NZD. NZDCAD longs look interesting, having broken the 0.8100 to 0.7950 consolidation range – can this kick higher? US services ISM (5 Oct 01:00 AEST) – we should see some cooling in the services index, with the consensus at 53.5 (vs 54.5 in August) – 53.5 would still be a healthy level of growth in services and reinforce the US exceptionalism trade. Would expect a solid USD sell-off on a print around/below 50, and an outsized rally above 55.0. US ISM manufacturing (3 Oct 01:00 AEST) – the consensus view is we see the diffusion index coming in at 47.9, which would be another contraction, but a modest improvement from the August print of 47.6. A number below 45 would be a shock and could see USD longs look to reduce, likely taking the DXY towards Friday’s low of 105.65. A print above 50.0 would also be a surprise and likely spur a renewed leg higher in the USD, where we should see USDJPY into 150 US JOLTS job openings (4 Oct 01:00 AEST) – The market looks for 8.83m job openings in August (from 8.827m). Consolidation in job openings after a strong decline from 12m openings in March 2022 seems highly probable. UK Decision Makers Panel (5 Oct 19:30 AEST) – the market eyes 3-month (inflation) output prices 20bp lower from the last call at 4.7% and 1-year price expectations to fall to 4.6%. GBP swaps pricing holds 19bp of hikes priced by Feb 2024, so a downside outcome to the DMP outlook could reduce market rate expectations and further weigh on GBP. I personally can’t help but sit in the camp where the BoE are done hiking. GBPAUD and GBPNZD downside looks attractive, even though both pairs have been sold hard through September. UK Global/CIPS services PMI (4 Oct 19:30 AEST) – this is a final read in the UK September services PMI release, although the market is not looking for a revision from the announced 47.2 print for the diffusion index. GBPUSD holds a regression channel (drawn from the 13 July high) – for momentum accounts, sell-stop orders through 1.2180 make sense. Canada employment report (6 Oct 23:30 AEST) – with one eye on crude, CAD traders will be looking at FX exposures over the Canadian job report. Leveraged funds hold a sizeable CAD long position and they will be ‘hoping’ for a blowout jobs report to put a rate hike (at the 25 Oct BoC meeting) in play, where the swaps market places a 28% chance of a hike at this meeting, and a 56% chance of a hike at the December meeting - the jobs data could influence market expectations, as it would the CAD. The consensus is we see 20k jobs created in September, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 5.6%. Korea exports (1 Oct 11:00 AEST) – expectations of a 9.3% decline in Korean exports in September will be monitored, especially for signs of trade flows to China. USDKRW has been a strong momentum long and as we see has broken out to YTD highs – can this kick? Weak export data could see further USD upside in this pair. • Fed speakers – Powell & Harker (3 Oct 02:00 AEST), Williams, Mester, Bostic, Bowman, Goolsbee, Mester, Daly • BoE speakers – Catherine Mann, Broadbent • ECB speakers – 16 speeches this week. See timetable below
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
2
VIX and S&P500 This is why stocks may rise now.Following yesterday's green stock market reaction, we compare on today's analysis VIX (Volatility Index) to the S&P500 (SPX) price action on the 1D time-frame. Our goal is to find clues to how the Volatility Index can affect the stocks. As you can see, VIX is trading within an Ascending Triangle which 2 days ago got rejected on its top (Higher Highs) trend-line. All this while its Lower Highs trend-line since September 2022 (1 year back) sits right above it. At the same time the S&P500 index found the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of its Channel Down (while the Higher Lows trend-line since the October 2022 market bottom sits right below) and on first impression appears to be rebounding. Being negatively correlated, the more VIX drops, i.e. market volatility calms/ decreases, the more likely it is for the stock market to rise, at least for the short-term towards the Channel Down top (similarly VIX to the Triangle's Support). In order to see it resume the long-term bullish trend, VIX most likely needs to break its Support. It is not unlikely as the market may respect the long-term Lower Highs (similarly Higher Lows for SPX) and hold it as new rejection point, but for the time being we have to keep our perspective on the short-term patterns (Ascending Triangle and Channel Down respectively) until shown otherwise. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIXShort
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 H4 | Bearish reaction off 38.2% fibo?Price is rising towards our sell entry at 4345.16, which is an overlap resistance level, aligning with the 38.2% fibo retracement and 100% fibo projection. Our stop loss is at 4386.35, which is placed above the 50% fibo retracement. Take profit is at 4308.62, which is a pullback support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
2
S&P500 Do or die moment for the bullish trend.The S&P500 / US500 is approaching the 1day MA200 (intact since March 24th) and its 1day RSI just become oversold for the first time since September 27th 2022 (exactly 1 year ago!). That time was the begining of the Bear Cycle's bottom formation. Additionally, we are at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that started after the September 2022 bottom, so it is easy to understand that it is now or never if the bullish trend is to be sustained. Buy on the current market price and target 4820, which is the All Time High of January 2022 and slightly under the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (targeted on prior rally). This approach is negated if the price closes a 1day candle under the MA200. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
5
S&P500 Entered the 2 year High Supply/Demand Zone. Will it hold?Time to leave the short-term charts for S&P500 (SPX) aside and look again at the long-term ones as the price failed last week to recover the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is extending this week the decline towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ** Higher Lows and 2-year Supply/ Demand Zone ** It hasn't yet hit the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom but has entered a 2 year High Supply/ Demand Zone, which has acted as the strongest Pivot Belt since October 2021, with 4 registered holds (green arrows) and 4 rejections (red arrows). It is clear that the market considered it a key during the previous Bear Cycle as well as the Bull Cycle. ** Inflation Crisis vs Subprime mortgage Crisis ** As you can see on the chart, we compare this Inflation Crisis price action with the bottom and subsequent recovery of the Subprime mortgage crisis in 2009 - 2010. The curved bottom on the 1D RSI suggests that we are so far aligned to a certain extent with the first susbtantial correction of the recovery which on May 06 2010 hit (and breached) the 1D MA200. The bottom was priced 2 months later on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. ** So what now? ** The 0.382 Fibonacci on today's sequence is on 4185, marginally above the bottom of the Pivot Zone and almost where the 1D MA200 is currently. This presents us with the probability that if the Higher Lows fails and the 1D MA200 breaks, the market has high chances to consider the bottom of the 2-year Pivot Zone as a High Demand level again. If that happens, we will be buyers for as long as 1D candles close above the bottom of the Zone. Based on the 2009 - 2010 price action, it can rise towards the -0.236 Fib ext and reach the 4820 All Time High (ATH) by Q2 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
6
Stock market crash looming over?Last week, the FED meeting resulted in no rate hike. However, Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to fight inflation, with dot plots showing the possibility of one more rate hike this year and interest rates staying elevated for at least another two years. That is no surprise to us as we have been warning for months about interest rates going higher and staying there. In addition to that, since late last year, we have been warning about the most deceitful bear market rally in cryptocurrencies and stocks as well. Since then, we have seen a very uneven recovery, with the major indices like SPX and Nasdaq being propelled higher by a handful of companies while Russell and small caps were staying far behind in the recovery process. Furthermore, earlier this year, a big case was made out of the Chinese reopening of the economy after the Covid-19 pandemic. Back then, we remarked how much would depend on the performance of the Chinese economy and that its slowdown could inadvertently endanger the U.S. stock market and bring recession to the West. Then, in August 2023, we issued another warning about the Chinese stock market rolling over, signaling trouble for the U.S. markets. Fast forward to today, and we have seen a failure of the Chinese indices to advance higher despite attempts by regulators to calm down the market, and in the U.S., personal savings declined, credit use soared and inflation reaccelerated. Furthermore, commercial bank deposits resumed a decline, and delinquencies on credit card loans started to soar rapidly. As for the narrative in the media, the widely accepted opinion is still that the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing. But, we remain very skeptical about the FED’s ability to deliver one. In our view, many signs point to the more harsh scenario, with the environment increasingly favoring a significant market selloff. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the chart of the delinquency rate on credit card loans, which doubled in the last year and a half. Illustration 1.02 The picture above displays the daily chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout, which marked a new low for the index since 27th July 2023. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
29
S&P500 Crazy as it may seem, we may see 9000 by the end of 2026!S&P500 / US100 is having a strong correction these past two months (August-September). However on the wider scales such as the 1week time frame this is only a minor technical correction. It is near forming a 1week MA50-100 Bullish Cross. Last time it formed this pattern was in September 2016 and the index never broke under either MA level. It went on to peak near the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. Similar peak (Fib 3.0) and Channel Up leading to it (of course we can't count the COVID crash into it) on the December 2021 top. The RSI pattern between now and 2016 is similar as well. Based on the above and crazy as it may sound, it is a technical possibility to see the Channel Up that started in late 2022, extend into the end of 2026 and price a top near 9,000. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPX
by TheCryptagon
1