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S&P ⇨long-term predictionhello guys... as you can see the head of the pattern touched the flip area, this strategy is fascinating for setup! and then formed a head and shoulders pattern and broke up the neckline very well, so the target of this pattern is $4630 after that it is more probable if the price retraces to the QML and the neckline, let's see what happens. ______________________________ always do your research. If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them. And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by melikatrader94
13
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook; destination Jackson Hole The big market themes last week were trading increased China risk and a resilient US economy with higher US ‘real’ yields (TradingView - TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE ) – the result was broad USD strength and global equity weakness. GBP longs also saw tailwinds from the UK data flow, with GBPNOK the best performing major currency pair on the week – Services PMI could test GBP longs this week, although pullbacks should be shallow. US equity and index options expiry may have played a part in the equity drawdown, with dealer’s net short gamma and delta hedging through shorting S&P500 futures and single stock names. Let’s see how options dealers/market makers deal with this inventory of short positioning/hedges this week, as it may be unwanted - suggesting risk that they buy-back short S&P500 futures hedges (to close), which could cause an early relief rally in equity. Positioning will play a huge part this week and it wouldn’t take much to see US real rates a touch lower, with the USD following in its wake. As the new trading week cranks up, news flow on China will drive and should the HK50 and CNH find further selling interest, then I’d be aligned, with a bias to look at short GER40 trades. The China property sector remains the elephant in the room, with the market finding little tangible fiscal support to reprice risk higher – the price action in the HK50 reflects that, with rallies quickly sold into. It’s time for Chinese authorities to step it up. We get PMI data out throughout the week, but as the week rolls on the attention should turn to Jackson Hole, where Jay Powell takes centre stage. While this forum has been the setting for some bold changes to monetary policy in years gone by, it doesn’t feel like this time around we’ll be treated to such action. The USD remains front and centre this week – biased long, I acknowledge positioning is rich and could easily be vulnerable to profit taking into Powell’s speech. The marquee data to navigate: • China loan prime rate decision (21 Aug 11:15 AEST) – after the PBoC surprised the market and eased the Medium-Lending Facility last week, we should see the PBoC ease the 1- and 5-year Prime lending rate by 15bp respectively. Unless we see the Prime Rate left unchanged, Chinese equity markets will likely overlook any policy easing here and funds should continue to shy away from HK50, CHINAH, and CN50 longs. USDCNH finds support below 7.3000, but few are buying yuan with conviction other than to cover yuan shorts. • Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 1800 AEST) – the market eyes the manufacturing index at 42.6 (from 42.7) and services at 50.5 (50.9). A weaker services PMI, especially if the data prints below 50 (the expansion/contraction line) and we could see better EUR sellers, with the GER40 eyeing a break of the July lows of 15,500. Tactically warming to EURCAD shorts. • UK manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 18:30 AEST) – the market looks for manufacturing to come in at 45 (45.3) and services at 50.8 (51.5). GBP – the best performing major currency last week - could be sensitive to the services print. • US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23 Aug 2345 AEST) – with much focus on China’s markets, US real rates and Jackson Hole, there is less concern about US growth metrics. As a result, the outcome of this may have a limited impact on the USD – it is still a risk to have on the radar. Jackson Hole Symposium – Fed chair Jay Powell will be the highlight of the conference (speaks Sat 00:05 AEST) – again, it’s still premature for Powell to declare victory in the Fed’s inflation fight and will likely emphasise there is still more work to be done. He may also spend time exploring a higher for longer mantra (for interest rates), with a focus on where they are modelling the neutral fed funds rate; possibly one for the PhDs and academics. Powell should re-affirm his view that rate cuts are not in their immediate thinking. From a risk management perspective, I am sensing Jackson Hole/Powell’s speech to be tilted on the hawkish side, and therefore modestly USD positive. Although given the bull run in the USD one could argue a hawkish Powell is largely priced. Other Jackson Hole speakers: • Fed members Goolsbee and Bowman (23 Aug 05:30 AEST) • Fed member Harker (25 Aug 23:00 AEST) • ECB president Lagarde (26 Aug 05:00 AEST) BRICS Summit in South Africa (Tuesday and Wednesday) – It’s hard to see this as market moving and a risk event for broad markets. However, with BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) accounting for 32% of global GDP and some 23 countries wanting to join the union, there will be increased focus on their expansion plans. Some have linked the BRICS to an acceleration of global de-dollarization, and while a global reliance on the USD will likely fall over time, the movement is glacial. A common currency for this union – while possibly getting headlines at this summit - is not something that seems viable anytime soon. Key corporate earnings: US - Nvidia report earnings (aftermarket) – many will recall the 24% rally in the share price in Q1 earnings (in May) and hope for something similar. Given the incredible run and heavy positioning, it may need something truly inspiring to blow the lights out. The market prices an implied move on earnings is 10.2%, so one for those who like a bit of movement in their trading. Australia – 68 ASX200 co’s report, including – BHP, Woodside Petroleum, Qantas, Northern Star and Wesfarmers
Editors' picks
TVC:US10Y
by Pepperstone
15
Volatility stays elevated amid rising uncertaintyIt has been about twenty days since SPX marked a high near $4,607. Back then, we highlighted the importance of watching the Chinese stock market in order to get more clues about what could be waiting for the U.S. indices (specifically, we mentioned a rollover in the Chinese stocks and the spillover effect). Since then, SPX drifted slightly lower, approximately 3.7%. Meanwhile, Chinese indices dropped significantly more. In particular, Hang Seng Index erased more than 10%, and Shanghai Composite Index lost about 5%. While all these figures are not yet all doom and gloom, the weakness in the global markets should not be overlooked easily, especially as we are still seeing the situation in China unravel. Therefore, we are paying close attention to technical indicators like MACD, Stochastic, and RSI on a daily time frame. All three indicators are in a bearish constellation, with MACD approaching the midpoint. If it breaks below zero, it will greatly bolster the bearish case for SPX in the short term. In such a scenario, we would expect SPX to continue falling to the area between $4,250 and $4,350. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Interestingly, the volatility index is staying elevated. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
3
Breaking down into OPEX We head into monthly options expiry (OPEX) on Friday and that may influence flows and price action in the US500, but for now, the equity bears are starting to get some traction. We saw the bulls try and take price above Monday’s high (4493) but they failed and the index closed not just below the range lows, but through the 50-day MA. Outright shorts remain challenged as implied vol is still so low (the VIX sits at 16.46%) and China could easily bounce (such is the extreme negative sentiment), but traders are betting on downside and the index looks likely to test 4385 in the near term.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone
Does weakness in Chinese stocks spell trouble for the U.S. ones?A while ago, we drew attention to the intriguing correlation between the Chinese and U.S. stock markets. In fact, we presumed that if the Chinese economy and stock market were doing well (following the reopening after Covid-19), it would be inherently positive for the U.S. stock market and could postpone a recession to later. From around October 2022, both indices were rising in tandem. However, in March 2023, the positive correlation between the two started to weaken, and the U.S. stock market kept rising while Chinese stocks began to move increasingly sideways, finding resistance above 20,000 HKD. We find this development interesting as specific U.S. stock titles are reaching highly overbought levels, and the general theme in the media continues to be that of “soft landing” and that we have nothing to worry about. Seemingly everyone seems to forget that regional banks started to implode in 1Q23, and without the FED stepping in and providing more liquidity to the market, the situation would have been much worse. Then, on top of that, the FED keeps hiking into a slowing economy with many subtle signs of a recession already presenting themselves. We believe that if the Chinese stock market continues to roll over, then it can potentially lead to the spillover effect. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the correlation between the SPX and HSI (Hang Seng Index). It can be easily observed that both indices trended down from October 2021 until October 2022. After that, both indices trended together to the upside until late March 2023, when SPX kept increasing, but HSI began finding resistance above 20,000 HKD. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of HSI and the resistance area. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
51
S&P500 On the 1D MA50 after 3 months. Will it hold?Last week we gave a sell continuation signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) after the price failed to break above the short-term Resistance of 4H MA50 (see chart below): As the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last Thursday for the first time in 3 months, the index found its first long-term Support level. Along with being near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of Channel Up 2 (dotted pattern within the multi-month Channel Up 1), we can attempt the first buy position again and target 4640 (March 29 2022 High). This is a similar situation as May 24 and May 04 (blue circles). If a 1D candle closes below it though, we will be quick to take the loss and sell the break-out towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 4350. That is the second long-term Support level, which if broken opens the way for the final one, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The most optimal long-term buy entry will be if the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross within the 2023 Support Zone. Potentially that could be near the 1D MA200 and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of Channel Up 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
3
$SPX500USD US500 Continue to Build Upward PressureOANDA:SPX500USD We will have choppy times ahead. Target 4600 Above 4600 Vey Low Volume The sentiment is positive 4060 is support Technically Higher Highs Lower Lows We are slowly leaving the current ange The ranges are increasing The S&P 500 has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week to break above the 4200 level, showing signs of extreme strength. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to threaten the 4300 level above, an area that has previously been resistance. We have seen a lot of noise over the last several months, but the resiliency of the market is something that you have to pay attention to. As long as the market stays this resilient, it will be difficult to short anytime soon. The candlestick seems as if it is trying to tell us that the market has made up its mind finally, and that it decided that it’s going higher. If we can break above the 4300 level, then this becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” situation, but you can see that the gains have been hard won. With that, I think you get a situation where you are probably better off looking for short-term dips that you can take advantage of, as they offer value in what is becoming a very aggressive uptrend. That being said, if we were to turn around a break down below the 50-Week EMA could send the market lower, perhaps back down to the 4000 level, and even down to the 200-Week EMA which is currently near the 3770 level. However, it’s probably worth noting that momentum is definitely not on your side if you are going to take this position, and therefore you are probably better off looking for a move to the upside but expecting a lot of volatility. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is not equally weighted, so it’s just a handful of stocks that make the difference.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by DaveBrascoFX
4
A Traders’ Playbook – backing a horse called Dollar The USD reigned supreme in G10 FX last week, and unless we see a far better feel towards China this week then I see the probability skewed for further USD gains. USDCNH remains central to the positive USD bias, and despite the best efforts of the PBoC to push back on the yuan weakness the daily chart is a thing of beauty – perhaps the better way to think about price is to question how high USDCNH would be if the PBoC hadn’t been ‘fixing’ the yuan at stronger levels each day, and Chinese state banks weren’t selling USDs. With the China proxies in the doghouse, we see NZD and AUD finding few friends, although we may see a few lightening up on shorts into the RBNZ meeting. I stay biased long EURAUD, although understand sentiment towards China is shot to pieces -this week's high-frequency China data may only need a small beat to cause a strong upside reaction in China proxies. USDJPY eyes a retest of the 145.07 highs and the manner by which US Treasuries are trading, both on a nominal and real basis, it's hard to fade the upside in USDJPY, although we may run into JPY intervention headlines this coming week. With a focus on bond markets, it's hard to go past moves in the UK bond market, where the 10yr gilt is above 4.5% and eyeing recent highs of 4.71%. We see 2- and 5-year UK gilt yields moving higher vs US Treasuries, and this is offering some support to the GBP. We continue to watch this dynamic with UK wages and CPI due this week. The preference remains to cast the net towards the crosses, where GBPAUD, GBPNZD or GBPJPY have been solid plays and will need to big downside UK core CPI print to halt the bullish trends. With China joining the UK as a central focus this week, we see big underperformance in the HK50, CHINAH and CN50. With China new yuan loans printing a 14-year low last week and renewed concerns on property developers, the Chinese authorities need to get in front of economics and sentiment. The market wants bold action, and anything less will attract sellers. I like the CHINAH index into 6200, but realise sentiment is shot and we also have Tencent reporting this week. Elsewhere, given views on US real rates, the USD as well as the general flow, I stay negative on gold and silver, but see modest upside risks in energy. We watch price action in broad large-cap tech and the A.I plays where we’re seeing dicey moves and real vulnerability emerge, and this could be a big theme that has to be on all trader's radars. The mega-cap tech/AI trade is one crowded position that if even modestly unwound could have big ramifications for risk. The 50-day MA on the US500 (4448) needs to hold this week, and a close below this average may hold big implications for market structure. While monthly options expiry could be price action, we watch to see if we see a move higher in volatility and our trading environment. The Risk Manager; navigating the marquee data/central bank meetings • China high-frequency economic data (all due 15 Aug 12:00 AEST) – After the recent weak trade and credit data, and a big push higher in USDCNH, we watch the monthly high-frequency economic data. Here, the market looks for industrial production to grow at 4.3% YoY, retail sales at 4.2% YoY and fixed asset investment at 3.8% YoY. The market is craving stimulus on both a fiscal level, backed by new monetary policy easing. Will bad economic data result in upside for Chinese equities, as it accelerates the need for stimulus? I am not so sure, but the cleaner trade remains USDCNH upside, where weakness in the yuan should in turn weigh on the AUD. • Australia Q2 Wage Price Index (15 Aug 11:30 AEST) – the market looks for wages to grow at 0.9% QoQ, and 3.7% YoY (unchanged from Q1) – unless we get a YoY WPI print above 4% YoY, the data shouldn’t alter Aussie rates pricing to intently where the market prices 15bp (or a 59% chance) of hikes by December. • UK employment and weekly earnings (ex-bonus) report (15 Aug 16:00 AEST) – the market expects wages to push to 7.4% (from 7.3%), with the UK unemployment rate eyed at 4%. The GBP was a relative outperformer last week in G10 FX, notably vs JPY and NZD – so GBP longs will look for big wage print this week, which would confirm expectations of a 25bp hike from the BoE on 21 September and lift peak rate expectations towards 6%. • US retail sales (15 Aug 22:30 AEST) - the market looks for sales to grow 0.4% with the ‘control group’, the basket of sales that feeds more directly into the Q3 GDP calculation, eyed at 0.5%. • Canada CPI inflation (15 Aug 22:30 AEST) – the market prices 5bp of hikes for the next BoC meeting (6 Sep), so the CPI report could alter that pricing resulting in increased CAD volatility. Here, the market sees headline CPI coming in at 3% YoY (from 2.8%) or 0.3% MoM. Core CPI is eyed at 3.7% (3.9 yoy). It may take a 4-handle on core CPI to see the September meeting as a ‘live’ event. • China new home prices (16 Aug 11:30) – with the Chinese property market in focus, as well as property developers and if we are to see a credit event, new home sales could get the headlines and move Chinese assets. • RBNZ meeting (16 Aug 12:00 AEST) – the market is firmly of the view that RBNZ keep rates unchanged at 5.5%, and we see only 6bp of hikes priced for the remainder of 2023. It seems unlikely the NZD will move too intently on the RBNZ statement and may revert quickly to following moves in the yuan and China equity markets. • UK July CPI (16 Aug 16:00 AEST) – coming after last week’s hotter UK Q2 GDP print, and Tuesday’s UK labour report, the market expects headlines inflation to drop to 6.8% YoY (from 7.9%). However, core CPI is likely to remain frustrating sticky also at 6.8% (from 6.9%). Unless core inflation falls markedly, then a 25bp hike in Sept is all but assured. • July FOMC meeting minutes (17 Aug 04:00 AEST) – the Fed have moved to a firm data-dependent approach, so the minutes may not offer any surprising insights. The market is waiting for new data, where they can potentially revisit low expectations of a hike in the November FOMC meeting, which is currently priced at a 33% chance. • Australia July employment report (17 Aug 11:30 AEST) – the usual monthly labour market lottery – the consensus is we see 15k net jobs being added, with the unemployment rate eyed at 3.6% - again, it’s hard to see the data altering rate expectations too intently and unless we get a big beat/miss shouldn’t see any lasting move in the AUD. On the day, I would be fading extreme moves intraday through buy/sell limit orders in AUD. • Norges central bank meeting (17 Aug 18:00 AEST) – The Norwegian central bank should almost certainly hike by 25bp to 4%. The NOK takes its cues from energy markets, although the 20-day rolling correlation between Brent crude and the NOK is not overly impressive at 56%. The NOK was the weakest G10 currency last week, so unless we get a great surprise from the Norges Bank, we should see the NOK revert to watching crude, Nat Gas and being a high beta risk proxy. • Japan July CPI (18 Aug 09:30 AEST) – with the market establishing JPY shorts as the preferred funding currency for carry exposures, we question if the JP national CPI print really matters given the JPY’s lack of cyclical qualities. We shall see, but the market looks for headline CPI at 3.3% and core at 4.3% (4.2%). With USDJPY eyeing a retest of the 30 June highs of 145.07, and the trade-weighted JPY breaking to new lows, the market may be looking out more intently for JPY intervention headlines. Stocks to watch; earnings front of mind: • HK – Tencent (report on 16 Aug) – with a market cap of HK$3.21t, Tencent has easily the biggest weight and influence on the HK50. The implied move for earnings is 2.7%, so it could get lively. • US – we get the retail names due this week with Home Depot (15 Aug), Target (16 Aug), and Walmart (17 Aug) offering insights into consumer trends. • Australia – 52 ASX200 companies report numbers this week – including, JBH (14 Aug), CSL (15 Aug), COH (15 Aug)
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
VIX is not dropping yet, more panic is possibleSince our last update, the SPX has largely remained below the resistance near $4,527. Concurrently, the VIX has not shown a notable decrease, hinting at the possibility of more market panic and weakness in the SPX. That, combined with the fact that Chinese stocks continue to roll over, leaves us on high alert, and we are growing increasingly bearish in the short term. To bolster the bearish odds, we want to see the SPX break below the support near $4,458. Furthermore, we would like to see another spike in VIX. Contrarily, to support a bullish thesis, we would like to see SPX move above the resistance at $4,527 and hold there (ideally, being accompanied by a drop in VIX below $14.30). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
13
US500 Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear subscribers , This is my opinion on the US500 next move: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4467.9 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Goal - 4441.2 My Stop Loss - 4483.2 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by AnabelSignals
3
S&P500 Still bearish unless the 4H MA50 breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) is within a corrective wave in the form of a Channel Down, which may have found a Support on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but as long as it trades below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it remains bearish. As a result our target is 4430 on a potential contact with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). If however it closes a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, we will buy instead and target 4600 (just below Resistance 1). The 4H RSI Higher Lows (which is a bullish divergence in contrast to the Lower Lows of the Channel Down), favor this scenario. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
1
A traders’ weekly playbook – inflation takes centre stage againAfter a solid tightening of financial conditions over the week we watch to see if the negative tone spills over into the new trading week. On the week, the NAS100 fell close to 3%, with Apple closing below its 50-day MA; a factor that had been acting as a solid trend filter since late January. Instead of buying dips, could we be looking at selling rallies now in Apple, which in turn, could change the structure of equity index? The US500 eyes channel support, and its own 50-day MA – we see equity volatility on the rise, with the VIX into 17% - a close above 20% would be welcomed by most day traders and would almost certainly open better shorting opportunities for those happy to trade a two-way price. EU equity has fared slightly worse, with the GER40 -3.1% for the week. We start the week with a modest downside skew in the risk for equity. We saw big volatility in 10 and 30-year US Treasuries, largely as a function of additional supply that the private sector will be asked to take down over the coming quarters. The USD benefited from higher long-end Treasury yields, although after Friday's reversal in 10yr Treasury yields I now see modest downside risk in the USD – that said, any sell-down in the USD should be modest. The AUD remains the weak link in G10 FX – I am biased for EURAUD higher, and AUDCHF lower, but would be selling rallies in the latter. China’s data flow this week matters for the AUD, and if USDCNH can squeeze higher it will help push the Aussie lower. Gold printed a bullish outside day on Friday, and those long will be hoping for a squeeze through $1946.74 for a rally into $1966, possibly even $1981. Crude looks well supported, and a test of $83.46 looks likely. US CPI remains the marquee risk this week and there are some signs the risk is for an above-consensus print, which would not be taken well by risk assets – if bond and rates volatility can lift because of the CPI print, then it will spill into increased movement in equity, FX and commodity markets and affect our trading environment. Expect the unexpected and keep an open mind – it will serve you well in these markets. The marquee event risks for traders to navigate: US CPI (10 Aug 22:30 AEST) – The marquee event risk of the week. The market looks for both headline and core CPI inflation to increase by 0.2% MoM and one can assume a range of 0.15% to 0.30% MoM as a guide as to how the USD could react to the data. The year-over-year (YoY) pace is eyed at 3.3% (up from 3%) for headline CPI and 4.8% (unchanged) for core CPI, respectively. The market should pay more attention to the MoM metric, with used vehicles and airfares likely to weigh on the basket. Core services are expected to rise 0.34% MoM and could influence the USD and risky assets. By way of a guide, the Cleveland Fed Nowcast model estimates core CPI coming in at 0.4% MoM, which is above consensus and if correct should see the USD trade higher. It would likely see expectations of a hike from the Fed in November priced closer to 50% (currently 30%). China CPI/PPI inflation (9 Aug 11:30 AEST) – the consensus is we see China’s CPI print pull into outright deflation, with consensus expectations set at -0.5% YoY. PPI inflation is expected to print -4%, which is a slight improvement from the -5.4% seen in the June data. USDCNH will be the FX cross to watch, and a break of trend resistance could see 7.2500 come into play, which would support the USD vs other FX pairs. US PPI (11 Aug 22:30 AEST) – coming a day after US CPI, the market sees PPI inflation at 0.7% YoY (from 0.1%) and core PPI at 2.3% YoY (2.4%). The outcome could shape expectations of the core PCE deflator inflation print due on 31 Aug. Mexico central bank (Banxico) meeting (11 Aug 05:00 AEST) – all 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg see rates on hold at 11.25% - the CPI print could influence expectations here. Mexico CPI (9 Aug 22:00 AEST) – the market sees the July headline CPI inflation coming in at 4.78% (from 5.06%) and core CPI at 6.66% (6.89%). With some 177bp of cuts priced into Mexican rates markets over the coming 12 months, a weaker CPI print could further increase these expectations and see USDMXN break key resistance at 17.4000. Japan Labor cash earnings (8 Aug 09:30 AEST) – the market sees wages increasing 3% (from 2.9%) – there is the possibility of JPY volatility on this data point, especially if the 10yr Japan govt bond (JGBs) rises above 75bp – however, unless it’s a blowout number I would have no issues holding JPY or JPN225 exposures over this data point. The consensus view is Japan should start to see more aggressive disinflation through late 2023 and into 2024. Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions (7 Aug 09:50 AEST) – essentially these are the minutes from the recent BoJ meeting, where we saw the BoJ allowing some increased flexibility in YCC, placing a new hard cap at 1% for the 10yr JGB - we will explore how close the decision was. It’s hard to see this really moving the JPY, but it is an event risk for JPY traders. China trade balance – I have little concern about holding exposures over this data point and the market has no confidence in forecasting China trade numbers, and so we seldom see much initial reaction. This time around the market sees a FWB:68B trade surplus, with imports expected to fall 5.5%, while exports are eyed down 12.6% - again, watch the reaction in the CNH, as the yuan will likely drive the AUD and NZD. China new yuan loans and M2 money supply (no set time through the week) – given there is no set date or time for this data this is not one to position for. After last month's blowout loan figure of CNY3049b, the market expects moderation in credit at $755b and M2 money supply at 11%. Market pricing on rate expectations – what’s priced and the step up/down per future bank meeting Corporate Earnings Australia – on the week we hear from companies such as QBE (10 Aug), Newcrest (11 Aug) and CBA (9 Aug), with CBA the ASX200 stock to watch. The share price has pulled back 5% from $107.09 since 27 July, underperforming the broader ASX200 in the process. This time around. the market implies a 2.7% move on the day of reporting so it could get lively for traders of both CBA and the AUS200 (given the influence CBA could have on the financial sector). The consensus is we see 2H23 cash earnings of $5.014b, paying out a dividend of $2.22. We look closely at CBAs Net Interest Margins (NIM), with the market seeing NIM at 2.02% (-8bp from 1H23). Guidance on margins will be key, with deposit competition heating up and higher wholesale funding impacting. We look out for intel and guidance on asset quality, volumes, and it’s capital position. Any outlook in the report or the earnings call on RBA policy, demand for loans and any views on the economy could move the dial. HK – Alibaba (10 Aug) – Alibaba hit us with Q1 earnings and the second biggest weighting in the HK50 will be hoping the share price breaks back above HK$ 100 – can the commerce giant make it 5 quarters in a row where they rally on the day of earnings? The market is pricing (through options pricing) a 5% move on the day, so it could get lively. US – Berkshire Hathaway, UPS, Walt Disney, Nvidia (23 Aug) Germany – Siemens, Bayer Central bank speakers Fed – Bostic *2, Bowman *2, Harker*2 BoE – Huw Pill (8 Aug 02:00 AEST) RBA – Schwatz speaks (8 Aug 09:05)
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
SPX 500 - where are we now?G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily Chart Weekly Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
OANDA:SPX500USD
by LupaCapital