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Us500

S&P500: The Megaphone gave us the perfect BuyThe S&P500 gave us the buy entry we were seeking at the bottom of the Megaphone, which happened to be on the 1D MA50 as well, a standard support level on uptrends. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 52.091, MACD = 17.390, ADX = 22.702) which indicates that there is upside potential to this move. On our latest trading plan we set a TP = 4,200 and this is intact. On the long term the Channel Up is targeting R2 (TP = 4,330) which is the August 16th 2022 High. If the price pulls back we will buy on S2 (3,925). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
14
US500 Will Go Lower! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4141.6. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 4085.4. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
UShort
by SignalProvider
12
spx500, updated [primary]good evening,,, follow up to my last post on the nasdaq. it is thanks to this particular picture, that the nasdaq count becomes possible. --- the spx500 came down in 5 waves from all time high, labeled wave (a). from the 2022 lows, it begun retracing in what looks like a perfect 3 wave move. there's a beautiful running flat in there which was very tricky to see. --- i believe the spx500 is about to complete wave c of wave (b) into this summer. once it does, i will give you a comprehensive update + some downside targets to look forward to. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Eloquent
2
A traders' week ahead playbook - A fresh set of challenges awaitMarquee event risks to navigate: Debt ceiling headlines – President Biden meets with Congressional leaders on Tuesday to try and inject some urgency in forging an agreement to raise the debt limit before 1 June. We’re already seeing clear stress in US T-bills maturing in mid-June, so the market is certainly taking the threat of moving past the June X-date seriously. Given the tight window to negotiate, there is a tight window which increases the possibility of a short-term extension. It seems a matter of time before traders start to look at the JPY and gold as the default debt ceiling hedges. US CPI (Wed 22:30 AEST) – the marquee data point of the week. The consensus estimate is for headline CPI at 0.4% MoM, and 0.3% MoM on core CPI, with the core YoY pace eyed at 5.5% (from 5.6% in March). With the market not pricing any hikes for June it would need a big upside surprise to see the market price in hikes for the next Fed meeting – interestingly, in the past 6 CPI prints the USD has fallen in five of those (in the 5 minutes after the data drops), while gold has rallied in all 6 occurrences. A print below 5.3% would see cuts being priced for June and price July as a 50:50 proposition; a clear positive for gold and see the NAS100 push towards my 13,800 target. Fed’s Senior loan officers survey (Monday at 04:00 AEST) – with the market looking for a tightening in lending standards, resulting in a credit crunch and potentially future recessionary conditions, this survey matters. Fed chair Jay Powell knew the outcome and mentioned the survey in his press conference last week, detailing the survey will show tighter lending practices. The survey has historically been well correlated where tighter lending standards results in wider corporate credit spreads and drawdown in the S&P500. BoE meeting (Thursday 23:00 AEST) – Given the recent inflation print, the BoE should almost certainly hike by 25bp, with the market fully pricing this outcome. The split in the MPC voting may matter, with the markets discounting that the BoE hike again in June and possibly August. GBP has been strongest vs the JPY and EUR, with EURGBP eyeing a break of the YTD range lows. GBPUSD trades at the highest levels since May 2022 and while it’s tough making a call on GBPUSD with US CPI due this week, I’m not fading this strength just yet. US PPI (Thursday 22:30 AEST) – The market will pick and choose when it wants to react to the PPI data point, so it’s a risk event to consider. The consensus is we see PPI +2.5% YoY (from 2.7%), with core PPI eyed at 3.3% YoY (from 3.4%). While the PPI data is important (especially when considering corporate margins), unless we see a big surprise, I’d expect market moves to be fairly contained over this print. China (April) credit data – there is no set time for the credit data (new yuan loans, M2 money supply and aggregate financing, but given credit has been largely front-loaded in 2023, to support the re-opening, it should be expected that new yuan loans and aggregate financing fall significantly from the lofty levels we saw in March. An outcome above RMB1400b (in new yuan loans) could boost China’s markets and China proxies (AUD and copper, for example). The CHINAH index is tracking a range, but I see scope for a push into 7000. China CPI/PPI (Thursday 11:30 AEST) – the market sees CPI at a lowly 0.3% YoY (from 0.7%) and PPI at -3.2%. In a world of high inflation, China is the clear outlier and a below-consensus reading could see renewed calls for policy easing – China’s bond markets are finding solid buyers of late (yields lower) and this may start to impact, with a weaker yuan the possible result - watch USDCNH as a guide and any upside in this cross (yuan weakness) could weigh on the AUD and NZD. US April NFIB small business optimism (Tuesday 21:00 AEST) – this is a survey I am watching very closely given the leverage US SMEs have to the smaller and regional US banks. The market sees the survey coming in at 89.8 (from 90.1 in March), which if correct, would be the weakest read since 2013 and a sharp decline from levels seen in 2021. Australia govt FY 2024 budget (Tuesday 19:30 AEST) – the budget is being viewed on three main ideals: the cost-of-living relief, economic growth, and Australia being more resilient to international shocks. One that should get media airtime, and could impact the AUS200, but it’s unlikely to be a driver of AUD volatility. AUDUSD shorts have been covering and we see price testing trend resistance, but the big level remains the Feb- May range high at 0.6800. Fed speakers – Kashkari, Jefferson, Williams, Waller, Daly, Bullard ECB speakers – Lane, Rehn, Vasle, Schnabel, Centeno, De Cos, Guindos
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
S&P500 Megaphone and MA50 (1d) call for a buy.The S&P500 failed to cross over the 4195 Resistance (1) and the rejection pulled the price back to the MA50 (1d). In the process, a Megaphone pattern has emerged and today's decline hit its bottom. This is a strong short term buy signal. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. 2. Sell if it closes a 1d candle under the MA50 (1d). Targets: 1. 4195 (Resistance 1). 2. 3950 (bottom of the long term Channel Up). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is bearish, trading under the MA level. The Support Zone where the previous two Higher Lows of the Channel Up were priced is lower. Use it as an additional entry signal for a potential bottom Buy. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
3
Will dreams about raging bull market get crushed today?The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has been eagerly anticipated by investors as the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. While this move is intended to combat high inflation, it will significantly impact the (already fragile) U.S. economy and have far-reaching implications for both businesses and consumers. One of the most significant impacts of the rate hike will be on debt servicing, which will become more expensive as interest rates rise. In addition to higher borrowing costs, the rate hike will contribute to slower economic growth, decreased consumer spending, and lower stock market returns. Moreover, this tightening of monetary conditions will come at a time when many U.S. regional banks are struggling to stay afloat, driven by a combination of factors, including loan defaults, capital outflows, and increased competition from larger banks. The potential contagion of the regional banking crisis has become a more pressing concern in light of recent failures within the financial system. In the past two months alone, we have seen the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, followed by a bust of First Republic Bank last week. Then, this week, we already saw massive declines among other regional banks, including PacWest Bancorp (-27% yesterday), Western Alliance (-15% yesterday), Metropolitan Bank (-20% yesterday), HomeStreet Bank (-14% yesterday), Zions Bancorporation (-10% yesterday). With these developments in the market, we would like to voice a word of caution to investors and once again reiterate our belief that we are merely going through a very deceptive bear market rally in market indices (rather than the raging bull market that so many people suggest). Accordingly, we remain bearish on the U.S. market and maintain a price target of $3500 for SPX. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the setup for SPX with the bearish trigger below Support 1 and tight stop-loss above it. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
23
S&P500 Strong buy signal on the Channel Up.The S&P500 is trading inside a Channel Up for more than 6 months. The price is now between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci levels, a zone that was the last consolidation during the previous two rallies to the top of the Channel Up. The Target Zone is between 4280 - 4350, with 4280 being the 1.236 Fibonacci level where the previous Higher High was formed. The RSI is still on a Rising Support as both previous rallies. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
7
S&P500 Megaphone pattern on 4H.The S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago: Right now we see a Megaphone pattern in formation on the 4H time-frame and with the price above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) holding since March 29, we are targeting the top (Higher Highs trend-line) at 4200. If the price closes above the Megaphone we will buy again, targeting the top of the long-term Channel Up at 4270. Similarly we will go short if we close below the 4H MA200 and target 4040. If the price breaks below the Megaphone we will sell again, targeting the bottom of the long-term Channel Up at 3930. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
US500 H4 | Potential bullish reversal?US500 could fall towards a key support level and potentially bounce from here. We could see price move up to our take profit target. Entry: 4095.05 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss: 4061.00 Why we like it: There is an overlap support Take Profit: 4154.11 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ULong
by VantageMarkets
S&P500: Buy conditions inside a Megaphone pattern.The S&P500 index is approaching the 4H MA200 inside a month long Megaphone pattern. The 4H technicals are deep in red (RSi = 38.959, MACD = 4.530, ADX = 22.263) and inside this pattern when that took place, buy signals have started to emerge. We are buyers and target the pattern's top (TP = 4,200) as long as the price doesn't break under the Megaphone or closes under the 1D MA50. If it does, we will short, expecting a bearish breakout targeting near the S2 (TP = 3,925). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
The FED foresees "mild recession" later this year Multiple interesting developments took place in the U.S. market yesterday. First, CPI and inflation rate came in better than expected (although the core inflation accelerated by 0.1% year over year), sparking a short-lived bounce in U.S. indices, followed by relative stabilization in the market ahead of the FOMC minutes. Then, once the report came in, the market started to decline amid a sudden change in the tone of the FED officials, which now foresee a “mild recession” later this year. This comes to us as no surprise since, already last fall, we noted that the FED projections were implicitly pointing to the recession in 2023 and 2024. However, this shift from an implicit tone to an explicit one is a major development that should not be overlooked, especially as the FED continues to indicate higher interest rates from the current levels. While hiking interest rates is very effective at fighting inflation, which will continue to decline toward the end of 2023, it is hardly bullish for the equity market. Due to that, we maintain a bearish stance on the U.S. market and the price target for SPX at HKEX:3 400. We will pay a lot of attention to banking earnings (starting tomorrow with Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Wells Fargo and continuing with other major and regional banks in the following weeks). In general, we do not expect the current earnings season for stocks to be any better than the previous one. To confirm our bearish thesis, we will seek more downgrades in the outlook and decline in corporate profits. Furthermore, we will monitor the labor market, bank deposits, loan delinquencies, consumer spending, and rate of consumer savings (among other important metrics). Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the 1-minute chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the time when inflation and CPI data were released. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the 1-minute chart of SPX and the subsequent price action following the release of FOMC minutes. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Illustration 1.03 The illustration above portrays the daily chart of SPX and fan lines acting as resistance and support levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
31
US500 S&P Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video we take a look at the #US500 #S&P closely, revealing that it has reached a substantial resistance level and rejected now finding support. Additionally, there is a gap in price below it and an accumulation of sell orders in the form of stop losses that could be a target for bigger players. Throughout the video, we delve into trend analysis, price action, market structure, and price gaps. We also briefly mention a possible trading opportunity.
UShort
by tradingwithanthony
A traders week ahead playbook - managing risk like a ninjaThere are weeks when the landmines by which traders must navigate are seen in such abundance, where the implications for market pricing are so meaningful, that we manage risk well or we simply get schooled - this week seems to be one of these. As we look down the calendar we see marquee catalysts everywhere – earnings, central bank meetings and tier-one economic data – what’s more, they’ve given the UK a holiday to get the mindset on point. It's all there, yet interestingly implied levels of volatility over the week remain subdued, and traders are simply not betting on broad cross-asset volatility. We’ll see if that aggregated view on volatility is priced correctly, but it certainly feels like many of the questions being asked will be partly answered this week. Subdued volatility aside, the set-ups are there to entice – the NAS100 will look to Apple’s numbers, but price (in the index) has broken the consolidation phase and while breakouts have limited success, the upside target of 13,800 from the bull flag remains a real risk and the pain trade. The US500 is having another crack at 4160 resistance – we saw a series of failed breaks in Feb, but is this time different? With all talk about awful breadth and so much of the heavy lifting done by Apple and Microsoft we see this leadership hasn’t given up yet, and a firm break of 4160 and many will be chasing the index to 4300. The JPY crosses saw big moves on Friday and will continue to garner much attention this week – we’ve seen some huge breaks of significant resistance levels – pull up a daily chart of CHFJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY and the question will be “to chase or not to chase”? I am sure many will be fading this move, but I am keen to let the buyers push this a little further, notably in USDJPY where the scalper in me has the 137.60/70 area in firm focus. The real action for the JPY comes into June where tactically I see a strong bullish backdrop in the making, but for now, the JPY is the weakest link. AUDUSD held the 0.6584 range low last week and a poor China PMI (released Sunday) won't do longs many favours. Good support was seen here last week, but I would have preferred price to print a bullish outside day on Friday and that failed. The pair still looks heavy, and a close below 0.6584 would get a lot of attention. Gold continues to consolidate – although you can flip it to XAUJPY and see a firm rally to new highs. I like a momentum move in XAUUSD and would be a buyer of strength through HKEX:2012 – that may not come, but a “body in motion stays in motion” approach is compelling. The trade will need buyers in US Treasuries, a steeper yield curve and US 5yr real rates headed through 1.14% (they currently sit at 1.23%). Anyhow, plenty of going on – get in front of the screens and question where you see the balance of risk – or as is typically the best way in times like this, be agile, react like a ninja and be a slave to price action. Marquee event risks for the week ahead Treasury Secretary Yellen to announce the debt ceiling X-date (2-5 May) - Not a volatility event in itself, but the start of a process that could get blanket market attention going into July – where the market should give the debt ceiling far more consideration once we know the X-date; the explicit point when the US Treasury start having to cut back on essential payments. FOMC meeting (4 May 04:00 AEST / Jay Powell press conference 04:30) - A 25bp hike seems a done deal – could this mark a temporary end to the Fed’s tightening hiking cycle? We see 79/98 economists calling a 25bp hike, with the market pricing an 85% chance of this outcome. With just 5bp of hikes priced for the June FOMC meeting, the market expects strong signals that a pause is coming. With inflation still highly elevated the risks are skewed to a hawkish hike. I see two-way risks for the USD through this meeting. ECB meeting (4 May 22:15 AEST) - A 25bp hike to 3.75% is not just fully priced, there is a small premium for 50 bp. Positioning will be important, with the market long of EUR's and expecting to remain hawkish. There will be a focus on the upcoming wall of TLTRO repayment for EU banks and whether the ECB offer a short-term bridge to offset any potential liquidity issues for EU banks - the market sees the peak/terminal rate of 3.62%, implying 3 more 25bp hikes – does this seem correctly priced? EURJPY and EURAUD are the vehicles for the EUR bulls. EURGBP favoured into the range low of 0.8730. US nonfarm payrolls (5 May 22:30 AEST) - The consensus is for 180k jobs (the economist’s range of 265k to 125k), which would be the lowest number of job additions since Dec 2020 - the U/E rate is eyed at 3.6% (unchanged), with average hourly earnings expected unchanged at 4.2% yoy. The NFP takes place after the FOMC meeting, so the outcome could influence June FOMC rates/OIS pricing. A number below 150k could hit the USD and boost the NAS100. EU CPI (2 May 19:00 AEST) – the outcome could heavily shape pricing for the ECB meeting 2 days later – the market consensus is that we see headline core CPI (estimate) at 7% (from 6.9%), with core CPI at 5.6% (5.7%) with the economists range seen between 5.8% to 5.5% – EURUSD trades a 1.0900 to 1.1100 range – happy to be guided by this, but the market seems skewed for an upside break. RBA meeting (2 May 14:30 AEST) - The market prices a 12% chance of 25bp hike for this meeting, which despite the base case for a hold, seems to be priced on the low side - Leverage funds are long AUD but real money are short - the market is priced for an extended pause from the RBA, which should limit the downside in AUD. Huge support at 0.6580 in AUDUSD, and happy to revisit shorts on a closing break. US JOLTS jobs openings (3 May 00:00 AEST) - The consensus is that jobs openings fall to 9.725m (from 9.931m) - we've seen jobs openings steadily fall since March 2022 - a drop below 9.7m could be a positive for risk and be a small negative for the USD. ISM manufacturing report (2 May 00:00 AEST) – the consensus sees the index at 46.8 (46.3) - a weak number, but less so than the prior month - one for the recession callers will be keen to point out, while crude holds a strong relationship with the new orders sub-component. Euro Bank Lending survey - We look for intel on a tightening of bank lending standards - EU rates pricing, the EUR, and EU bank equity firmly in focus. ISM services (4 May 00:00 AEST) - The market sees the index at 51.8 (from 51.2) – in essence, US service sector data continue to show the US is growing, but below trend. April Employment report (5 May 22:30 AEST) - The market looks for 20k net jobs to be added, with the U/R at 5.1% - the market sees the BoC on hold in June, with rate cuts priced from Q3 and its hard to see this jobs report affecting pricing too intently. USDCAD is finding better sellers of late, and a break of 1.3531 may accelerate the move lower. NZ Q1 Employment report (3 May 08:45 AEST) - The market looks for the U/R of 3.6%, with an employment change +1.8% - could get attention from FX traders, but unlikely to be a significant vol event for the NZD. That said, I see risks NZDUSD trades to 0.6250.
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PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
14