Country Garden is unable to meet the offshore debt payments The past few days were quite choppy for SPX. However, S&P 500 E-mini Futures have not broken above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. That allows us to maintain a bearish stance and keep the recently introduced setup valid. As a result, there is not much to write about today, except for one noteworthy thing that caught our attention overnight: one of the largest Chinese real estate developers, Country Garden, failed to meet offshore debt payments (already in the grace period), suggesting default proceedings might be next. We will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of ES1! and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Us500
S&P500 Bullish Flag calls for a buy.The S&P500 got rejected twice near the MA50 (1d), causing a 7 day decline.
Since the October rise has been stronger so far than this decline, we can consider it as a Bullish Flag.
The price is approaching the MA200 (1d), where the October rally basically started.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4380 (MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on the exact symmetrical level as the September 7th Low. An additional bullish signal, at least for the short term.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
SPX500 (US500 ES) Bullish Trade IdeaThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes
This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes:
- Smart Money Concepts
- Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure
- Supply And Demand
- Auction Theory
- Volume Analysis
- Footprint
- Market Profile
- Volume Profile
- WYCKOFF
- ETC
S&P 500 - Time to Go Short 📉🔥Why am i speculating Against the Market at this moment:
Tomorrow's Inflation (CPI) is expected to soar, thanks to the recent Oil price surge. This is a red flag 🚩
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East are adding fuel to the fire, causing market jitters globally 🌍
While rate hikes may be on hold, there's no sign of rate cuts either. Not a good look 👀
Let's Talk Numbers 📊:
Resistance stands strong at 4420 🛑
First target is 4327 🎯
Second target is 4210 🎯
Honestly, I'm not too keen on trading much these days. The world's current state, filled with conflict and loss, is affecting my mood. 😔
Why is there so much hate in 2023? It's disheartening. 🙏
Sending out prayers for peace, wisdom, and a better tomorrow for humanity. 🕊️
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
S&P500 Channel Up trades depending on the 4hour MA50.The S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a larget Bearish Megaphone pattern, which is rising lately to price a Lower High on the Falling Resistance.
This creates the potential for two Channel Up patterns, a dotted one more aggressive and a dashed one less aggressive.
The determining factor is the 4hour MA50. So far it is holding and favors the more aggressive version. Buy and target 4450 (Falling Resistance).
If it breaks, buy for a second time near the bottom of the less aggressive Channel Up and target 4440 (Falling Resistance).
A triple straight Bullish Cross on the 4hour MACD is a strong indication of a bullish trend, that's why we use a double buy entry approach.
Previous chart:
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short at 4342-50 to target short time 4310-15 so an easy 30 pipsshort #sp500 #us500 at 4342 with very short time tp at 4311-15 around so a good 30 pips in pocket ,for long term or short term dependt of the #us #cpi tomorrow there the target 2 on simply chart below #nasdaq too can short for 50 pips no problem #gold #wti #eurusd #usdjpy #gbpusd
-much overbought and up for no reason
-while "vix" up in same time,so strange
S&P500 Looks like a good opportunity to grab some liquidityHello trader! I'm interpreting this setup as follows: locally, the trend is upward. After a correction driven by recent news, the price has absorbed a significant portion of the liquidity from below, which was formed during the current week. There's room to move upward in pursuit of the next liquidity. I'm placing the stop loss below the order block.
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BTC/SPX ratio Time to move capital from stocks to BITCOIN??A simple Bitcoin-to-S&P500 ratio gives the grand idea of what's about to happen in the markets in the following weeks.
The ratio is about to form a 1day MACD Bullish Cross, much like the one on January 20th 2020, on the exact same zone.
As today, it was the time the price was between the 0.5-0.236 Fibonacci range and as it approached the Halving, it want for the Falling Resistance test of the Bear Cycle.
Needless to mention that the parabolic rally followed.
This tells you that it may be time to start making adjustments to the risk part of the portfolio and gain more exposure to Bitcoin than stocks.
The return will be far greater. What do you think?
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The FED likely to fail in constructing a soft landingS&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!) bouncing off the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level prompted us to introduce an aggressive trade setup yesterday, with a short entry below this level and tight stop-loss above it. After that, we wished to see a surge in VIX, which subsequently materialized, and VIX skyrocketed more than 17% within two hours or so. Today, to further bolster a bearish case, we would like to see SPX fall below its 20-day SMA and no significant slump in VIX. In addition to that, we want MACD, Stochastic, and RSI to continue reversing to the downside on the daily chart. Considering that the Chinese stock market sold off overnight (with data showing a slump of 6.2% YoY in exports and exports for September 2023), we think this is a likely scenario. A global slowdown is becoming increasingly apparent, and still, many people are discounting the real possibilities of a credit event and recession. However, we stick to our original thesis that we have been warning about for months now: that the FED will fail to construct a soft landing (and that the past year of upside movement was merely a bear market rally).
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the aggressive setup we introduced yesterday.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 Giant Cup and Handle completed? 5000 realistic now?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Down since the mid-July High. Last week though made a strong reversal on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA200, closed the candle in green and is about to do so again for the 2nd straight week today. Ahead of a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross (the first in 7 years), this Channel Down can be interpreted as nothing more than the Handle of a Giant Cup and Handle pattern. We can argue that the whole Inflation Crisis of 2022 has been a Cup and Handle with the subsequent market recovery.
The breaking of the 1W RSI Higher Lows trend-line indicates on the macro level a shift to a new, less aggressive trend, as the 2023 rally isn't easily sustainable without more fundamental catalysts. As a result, as long as the MA Support Cluster holds, we resume being bullish long-term. Target 1 is 4700 (bottom of the All Time High Resistance Zone) and by Q2 2024 Target 2 at 5000.
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S&P500 Strong MA200 (4h) rejection.S&P500 has had a strong rejection on the MA200 (4h) level today.
It happened after it rose by +4.70% from last week's low, the same degree of rise as the September 1st Lower High did.
Since the pattern is a Falling Megaphone, selling is prioritized.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the first green (4h) candle.
Targets:
1. 4300 (-2.40% decline like the September 7th pull back).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) remains on a Rising Support. Breaking under it validates the sell.
2. Breaking over the MA200 (4h) on the other hand invalidates it.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
GOLD → Strong bullish trend feels no resistance OANDA:XAUUSD does not react to the nuances of technical analysis and is actively growing. But, the growth is accompanied by a consolidation moment, which can become a lever for further rsot. Even against the background of the trend, the price is able to accumulate potential
The breakthrough of resistance 1877.6 is formed and the price aspires to the important level for the medium-term perspective - 1885. Most likely, with the current fundamental features, the level will be broken in the near future, but before that a correction or a retest of the support before further growth may follow.
There are a number of important news for the US market today. Worth paying attention to: Core CPI, CPI, Initial Jobless Claims. Lately there is more news about inflation stabilization, but it is not enough for the medium and long term. In any case, this is more positive news for the market. For gold, this is a positive nuance as the TVC:DXY will continue on a localized downward course
Resistance levels: 1885, rising line
Support levels: 1878.6, 1877,6, 1872.7
In the long term, I expect a correction from 1885 and the formation of a retest back to the level for further breakout of the resistance zone
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! CAPITALCOM:US500
Regards R. Linda!
Market to suck in die-hard bulls before abrupt reversal?Finally, the SPX rebounded to the level we initially expected it to reach (outlined last Friday). This move was accompanied by a bullish reversal in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart. To support a continuation higher, we want to see these indicators continue to develop bullish structures. However, to support a thesis that this is merely a correction of a prolonged downtrend that began in late July 2023, we would want to see RSI peak below 70 points (which is very common for downtrend corrections). In addition to that, we would like to see MACD fail to break above the midpoint.
As for our stance, we continue to wait on the sidelines (for short re-entry if the situation develops as expected). However, at the moment, we still do not feel comfortable to take action. The SPX might continue higher, potentially to the level where it sucks in bulls who start predicting new all-time highs and soft landing, just before an abrupt reversal. If we were to think of such a level, it would be somewhere near $4,450 (coinciding with the breakout above the sloping resistance). Though this is, of course, only a speculation at this point. It is not warranted the market will rebound as high (especially as yesterday’s candle looks somewhat exhausted). Therefore, for minor clues, we will pay close attention to the price’s ability to hold above the 20-day SMA and Resistance 1; a failure to stay above these levels will raise our suspicion and potentially signal a loss of upside momentum.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as a support. If the price fails to hold above this level, it will be slightly bearish and raise our suspicion.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500: Bearish as long as the Megaphone holds.Bullish if brokenS&P500 hit the 4,375 target of our last signal (chart at the end) and turned neutral on the 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 54.575, MACD = -15.020, ADX = 40.128). The rise is now approaching the 1D MA50, over which the new top was formed before on the LH of the Bearish Megaphone. We will wait for the top and short, aiming at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 4,325) as it happened with the September 7th pull back. If the price crosses over the LH, we will wait to buy on the first pull back near the 1D MA50 and target July's High (TP = 4,600).
Prior idea:
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GOLD → Fundamental is stronger than the technical part OANDA:XAUUSD is making a new jump. Actually, we talked about it yesterday. Geopolitics affects the interest in gold and the price of the metal. The trend resistance is broken and the price changes the local trend.
Let's take a look at the D1 chart . There is a rather interesting and at the same time controversial situation, in which fundamental factors can be stronger than technical ones.
The price is approaching the retest of a strong resistance line, which has 5 serious confirmations over the last year and a half, so we should wait for a fall when this line is retested.
BUT! At the same time we have strong fundamental factors, on the side of which are such technical nuances as: local consolidation, resistance breakout and candlestick pattern, which hint at further growth.
Also, on the D1, the price breaks the level of 1856.4 and on Monday the session closes above this area. On the local chart, the price breaks up, updates the local high and forms a retest of the range support. By the way, relative to this support, I expect the entry point forging. The price closing above one of the mentioned lines will give us a bullish potential
Support levels: 1857.7, 1856,4, 1846,3
Resistance levels: 1863.7, 1877.56
In the long term I expect the growth to continue, but after a local correction. Targets are indicated on the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
SP500 making a liquidity runHello, traders. Opening a trade on SP500. We're currently in an upward trend and might encounter some liquidity grabs before a local correction from the top. Downside movement for liquidity is expected to be more challenging at the moment. I'm pinpointing the entry at the order block and setting the stop loss below it.
S&P500 Potentially made the biggest rebound of the next 12monthsWe have shown numerous times that the S&P500 (SPX) was in a 2.5 month Channel Down/ corrective move but all within the larger Channel Up pattern, which keeps the long-term trend bullish ever since the bottom recovery last October (2022). Much like that bottom which was formed by the rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), 12 months after (October 2023), the index may have just made the most important rebound for another 12-month period.
What was the 1W MA200 then, is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which are about to form a Bullish Cross, the first since September 2016. In fact last week's candle hit the 1W MA100 and rebounded immediately, almost closing the body candle flat, leaving a large wick underneath it, an even stronger reversal than even the October 10 2022 1W candle.
If that wasn't enough, the index hit (and as mentioned rebounded) the Former Resistance Zone of May 2022 through May 2023. In times of such transitions from a Bear to a Bull Cycle, we see the market technically testing former Resistances to make Demand Zones and turn them into Support levels.
On top of that, this week the index just entered into green Ichimoku Cloud territory for the first time since September 05 2022. All this while the 1W RSI bounced off a 18 month Higher Lows trend-line.
It is obvious that if this 5-level Support Zone holds, it can extend the 12-month Channel Up pattern to its next Higher High. Assuming a similar to the previous two bullish legs, +20% rise leg will take place, we expect the S&P500 to target 5000.
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XTZUSDT → Breaking resistance, entering a new rangeBINANCE:XTZUSDT tried to break the support at 0.708 and let the price go lower, but at some point the market held the area, forming a local bottom. After a false break of support, the price breaks consolidation resistance
At the moment the market is testing the possibility of transition from the consolidation phase to the phase of realization of the accumulated potential, which can be accompanied by distributive growth. The price fixing above 0.708 level will confirm the entry into the range (new corridor) and in this case Tezos/TetherUS will open for itself the way to the setup resistance. The 3-4 month accumulation in the coin can give us a pretty good medium-term potential, within which the market can hit targets such as: 0.921 and 1.259.
The price is breaking MA-50 and aims to test MA-200.
Support levels: 0.708, 0.633
Resistance levels: 0.742, 0.921
In the long term, I expect the bulls to consolidate the market above 0.708 and form a distribution towards 0.921
Regards R. Linda!
S&P500 The 4hour MA50 supported, +4000 incoming.S&P500 / US500 opened lower today but managed to hold the 4hour MA50 as its Support and is having a big boost intra day.
It is not impossible to see one final pull back under the 4hour MA50 again as on August 24th but it's confirmed that this new bullish leg of the Bearish Megaphone is in full motion.
Buy and target 4440 (under the 0.786 Fibonacci and top of Megaphone).
Previous chart:
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Market uncertainty spreadsIn the previous article about SPX, we discussed how the market conditions were changing and that a prolonged period of selling could be upon us (just like in 2022). Then, on Friday, we articulated our worries that the market was reaching oversold territory in the short term, making a case for a brief rebound (up to Resistance 1 and potentially slightly below Resistance 2). Subsequently, we saw the market rise slightly and almost reach Resistance 1. But over the weekend, a war broke out in the Middle East after the terrorist organization Hamas attacked Israel, which caused the U.S. indices to drop after the futures market opened (though we still have not seen a very significant move to the upside after a month of selling, which might be one thing to consider). A further escalation of this conflict risks sending oil prices much higher, which will cause inflationary pressures around the globe (including the U.S.) As a result, this may threaten FED’s attempts to tame inflation and avoid a recession. Besides that, this conflict also risks spiraling into a broader war, with the United States getting involved (especially as media outlets report U.S. citizens among casualties or those taken hostage). That has negative implications for market forecasting visibility in the very short term. Therefore, it might be proper to get out of the market and wait on the sidelines until the picture becomes more clear again.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish (but the trend is weakening)
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GOLD → Bounce off support. How long will it last?OANDA:XAUUSD forms a false breakout of support late Friday, after which the market buys out the entire decline and forms an almost bullish takeover, closing Friday above Monday's close and the entire weekly consolidation
The euphoria from the NFP (negative news for the dollar), may not last that long, and after a small technical correction, the main movement may continue. There are several reasons for this.
The main fundamental background for the dollar index is bullish, Powell (FED) is not going to lose momentum yet, as in every address there are always references to the rising inflation and the tight market, which they are trying to fight . By the way, there are several important news items being published this week. Worth paying attention to:
PPI (Mom), FOMC Meeting Minutes
GDP, Core CPI, CPI, Initial Jobless Claims
The TVC:DXY is forming a correction. The previously broken resistance at 105.272 may be tested soon. Most likely from this level, based on the global fundamental background, the growth may continue, but first we need to wait for the fundamentals of the coming week and a retest of the level from a technical point of view.
Regarding gold. From a technical point of view, the market has not reached the mentioned target. I am interested in the 1809 level, below which there is a huge pool of liquidity that beckons market managers. Gold, even with increased liquidity on the news, does not reach this area and reverses. Friday's candle forms the preconditions for the local growth to continue on Monday ( it is worth paying attention to the level of 1829-1830, which can be bought against ).
The nearest target for local maneuver is the level of 1856. But in the medium term, I continue to wait for further decline, especially to the level of 1809 and 1800, as the US monetary policy is still tight to reduce the cost of production, so after a small pullback, the growth of the dollar and the fall of gold may continue
OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:US500 COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:SI1!
Regards R. Linda!