S&P500: Channel Up with Golden Cross closing the February Gaps.The S&P500 index formed a Channel Up with the 4H technicals indicating a healthy uptrend (RSI = 63.246, MACD = 19.720, ADX = 49.272). The 4H RSI is on Higher Lows of its own and the 4H MA50 is about to cross over the 4H MA200 and form the first Golden Cross since January 17th. A pullback will be an excellent opportunity for lower risk buys.
The Fibonacci retracement levels act as solid Resistance and Support zones so use them to your advantage if you trade short term. We expect R1 and R2 to get hit and as pointed out in our previous idea, we remain bullish with TP1 = 4,080 and TP2 = 4,160.
Prior idea:
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Us500
S&P500 - Will we get lower lows?Hello traders!
In previous posts about the sp500 (see links in description) we argued that some downside was coming and posted our short entry at 3994.
As you can see from the main chart, we connsidered the previous upside from October's low as a corrective move with choppy price action and low volumes.
We are considering different possibilities: either that move was a primary wave (B) to the upside, and main downtrend is resuming for lower lows, or it was only the first leg of this primary (B), and we are retracing down with an intermediate wave B about to conclude.
We are keeping our short with stop loss on entry.
We will refer to patterns and sentiment to assess probabilities of different scenarios.
The light orange zone of support that you can see in the chart, if broken, will activate a bearish head and shoulder that will lead to lower lows. However, since it is not broken, this pattern has not statistical validity.
Here you can see a bearish wolfe wave whose target will be consistent with both scenarios.
No hints for neither case from a pattern perspective until 3766 holds.
From a sentiment andfundamental perspective, we have seen soft lending narrative and the idea that slowing inflation may have led to a Fed pivot boosting bullish sentiment in tha last months. However, FED kept raising rates and banks are suffering it. The fact that all analysts and the general sentiment is not worry about it is a point in favour of a lower low;). But to consider it we want to see impulsive acceleration to the downside. Until then our targets will be 3840 and 3780.
Bests
GMR
US500: Will Keep Falling! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of US500 right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move down seems to be quite likely.
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US500 H4 | Potential bearish reversal?Looking at the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry area at 4012.00, which is an overlap resistance. If the price were to reverse, it could drop down to our take profit at 3903.06 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Stop loss is at 4077.26 which is an overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US500 Trading in a triangleHello Traders,
on higher timeframes CURRENCYCOM:US500 is trading on a triangle. For the moment we don't know where will be a breakout so we're trading inside of it.
Next target probably the 3850 level.
US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversalPrice is approaching a key support level and potentially reverse, we could see the momentum carry price down to our take profit target.
Entry: 4046.90
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4192.95
Why we like it:
There is a swing-high resistance
Take Profit: 3897.91
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US500 H4 | Potential bearish reversal?Looking at the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry area at 4012.00, which is an overlap resistance. If the price were to reverse, it could drop down to our take profit at 3903.06 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 4077.26 which is an overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
S&P500 Will the bond yields rescue or push it lower?The S&P500 recently has been negatively correlated with bond yields. The while line is the US10Y.
This has been inside a Channel Down and is near its bottom. Based on their negative correlation that will push the S&P500 lower.
The time that both the S&P500 and the US10Y rose simultaneously was after August 1st and we can seriously argue that there are resemblances between the two time periods.
What do you expect to happen this time?
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US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversal?Looking at the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry area at 4032.90, which is an overlap resistance. If the price were to reverse, it could drop down to our take profit at 3944.65 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 4097.53 which is an overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US500, H4 | Potential bearish reversalPrice could approach a key resistance level and reverse, we could see the momentum carry price down to its take profit target.
Entry: 4064.55
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4155.75
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance + swing-high
Take Profit: 3897.91
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US500 Will Most Likely Target 4530Looking for some nice bullish moves during Q2 and I expect price to hit 4530 by summer. With that being said, I also expect more gains above that price this year. Q1 closes in 4 days and we are looking bullish at the moment. If March can go bullish, I believe there is a strong chance stocks will rally this year. This analysis is based on price action, supply and demand, and market structure.
US500 SHORT Currently I'm just waiting for us500 to rise up to 4005 which is my liquidity area for it to then drop down to the 3960 area taking out multiple traders along the way.
S&P500 breakout and potential retraceHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 3950 zone, US500 was trading in a downtrend but after a dovish FOMC successfully managed to break it out. so if we get any decent pullbacks technically i will be watching a potential retrace of the trend around 3950 supply and demand zone.
trade safe, Joe.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAR 27
I won't be trading till the new month starts.
Keep profits and rest if target has been reached, and also
chart is messy at the moment.
Can't imagine a new quarter is starting soon!
Scenario Planning:
1) Possible short if market tests previous rotation area
(grey box)
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = possible weakness
= Supply remains
Daily: Mark up on lower volume = possible buyer's trap
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4175 4082 3928
3788 3502-3580
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
BUY US500 on correction. Short term ideaUS500 broke out of falling channel, retested it and creating a new growing channel respecting its boundaries.
S&P500: Is the Recession danger over?The S&P500 on the 1W time frame remains technically neutral (RSI = 51.005, MACD = 10.190, ADX = 35.849). Large reason why it has done so is because it has been ranging between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200 for 22 weeks (154 days). That is a significant period that isn't that indicative of a bottom formation. There is still a large portion (could even be the majority) of market participants that believe we haven't skipped the danger of an even longer Recession.
What better way to look at it than compare the index with the last Recession, the subprime mortgage on in 2007-2008. We see that for some period of time, that Recession traded also between the 1W MA100 and 1W MA200, while also breaking shortly over the LH trend-line of the Cycle. It then started to decline aggressively on a weekly pace under the 1W MA200, something we haven't (yet) seen today, especially with the last two 1W candles being green. Also the MACD is now trading upwards after a Double Bottom while in 2008 it traded downwards.
Bottom-line, it is more likely that the danger of a Recession is over but a closing over the 1W MA100 would be ideal to confirm that. What do you think?
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NAS100 Technical analysisHello traders, this is my analysis for tomorrows trading sessions 3/23. I expect price to take the equal lows below and take the price created at CE of NWOG and maybe a bounce from the daily CE which is marked at the .5 level of the daily candle. Price has just taken equals Highs from Weekly, so I'm expecting it to start taking sellside liquidity.
S&P500 is pricing the new Low of the bullish leg.The S&P500 (SPX) hit today the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again and the Higher Lows since the March 13 bottom. That was a bottom on the 5-month Channel Up and the best buy opportunity on a 1 month time-frame.
With the 4H RSI sequence similar to the Higher Lows of the previous bullish leg in late December/ early January, we see SPX attempting to price the new Low. This is a new buy opportunity. Our long-term target of 4190 is intact.
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