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US500 H4 | Potential bullish reversal?US500 could fall towards a key support level and potentially bounce from here. We could see price move up to our take profit target. Entry: 4095.05 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss: 4061.00 Why we like it: There is an overlap support Take Profit: 4154.11 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ULong
by VantageMarkets
S&P500: Buy conditions inside a Megaphone pattern.The S&P500 index is approaching the 4H MA200 inside a month long Megaphone pattern. The 4H technicals are deep in red (RSi = 38.959, MACD = 4.530, ADX = 22.263) and inside this pattern when that took place, buy signals have started to emerge. We are buyers and target the pattern's top (TP = 4,200) as long as the price doesn't break under the Megaphone or closes under the 1D MA50. If it does, we will short, expecting a bearish breakout targeting near the S2 (TP = 3,925). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
The FED foresees "mild recession" later this year Multiple interesting developments took place in the U.S. market yesterday. First, CPI and inflation rate came in better than expected (although the core inflation accelerated by 0.1% year over year), sparking a short-lived bounce in U.S. indices, followed by relative stabilization in the market ahead of the FOMC minutes. Then, once the report came in, the market started to decline amid a sudden change in the tone of the FED officials, which now foresee a “mild recession” later this year. This comes to us as no surprise since, already last fall, we noted that the FED projections were implicitly pointing to the recession in 2023 and 2024. However, this shift from an implicit tone to an explicit one is a major development that should not be overlooked, especially as the FED continues to indicate higher interest rates from the current levels. While hiking interest rates is very effective at fighting inflation, which will continue to decline toward the end of 2023, it is hardly bullish for the equity market. Due to that, we maintain a bearish stance on the U.S. market and the price target for SPX at HKEX:3 400. We will pay a lot of attention to banking earnings (starting tomorrow with Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Wells Fargo and continuing with other major and regional banks in the following weeks). In general, we do not expect the current earnings season for stocks to be any better than the previous one. To confirm our bearish thesis, we will seek more downgrades in the outlook and decline in corporate profits. Furthermore, we will monitor the labor market, bank deposits, loan delinquencies, consumer spending, and rate of consumer savings (among other important metrics). Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the 1-minute chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the time when inflation and CPI data were released. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the 1-minute chart of SPX and the subsequent price action following the release of FOMC minutes. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Illustration 1.03 The illustration above portrays the daily chart of SPX and fan lines acting as resistance and support levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
31
US500 S&P Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video we take a look at the #US500 #S&P closely, revealing that it has reached a substantial resistance level and rejected now finding support. Additionally, there is a gap in price below it and an accumulation of sell orders in the form of stop losses that could be a target for bigger players. Throughout the video, we delve into trend analysis, price action, market structure, and price gaps. We also briefly mention a possible trading opportunity.
UShort
by fxtraderanthony
A traders week ahead playbook - managing risk like a ninjaThere are weeks when the landmines by which traders must navigate are seen in such abundance, where the implications for market pricing are so meaningful, that we manage risk well or we simply get schooled - this week seems to be one of these. As we look down the calendar we see marquee catalysts everywhere – earnings, central bank meetings and tier-one economic data – what’s more, they’ve given the UK a holiday to get the mindset on point. It's all there, yet interestingly implied levels of volatility over the week remain subdued, and traders are simply not betting on broad cross-asset volatility. We’ll see if that aggregated view on volatility is priced correctly, but it certainly feels like many of the questions being asked will be partly answered this week. Subdued volatility aside, the set-ups are there to entice – the NAS100 will look to Apple’s numbers, but price (in the index) has broken the consolidation phase and while breakouts have limited success, the upside target of 13,800 from the bull flag remains a real risk and the pain trade. The US500 is having another crack at 4160 resistance – we saw a series of failed breaks in Feb, but is this time different? With all talk about awful breadth and so much of the heavy lifting done by Apple and Microsoft we see this leadership hasn’t given up yet, and a firm break of 4160 and many will be chasing the index to 4300. The JPY crosses saw big moves on Friday and will continue to garner much attention this week – we’ve seen some huge breaks of significant resistance levels – pull up a daily chart of CHFJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY and the question will be “to chase or not to chase”? I am sure many will be fading this move, but I am keen to let the buyers push this a little further, notably in USDJPY where the scalper in me has the 137.60/70 area in firm focus. The real action for the JPY comes into June where tactically I see a strong bullish backdrop in the making, but for now, the JPY is the weakest link. AUDUSD held the 0.6584 range low last week and a poor China PMI (released Sunday) won't do longs many favours. Good support was seen here last week, but I would have preferred price to print a bullish outside day on Friday and that failed. The pair still looks heavy, and a close below 0.6584 would get a lot of attention. Gold continues to consolidate – although you can flip it to XAUJPY and see a firm rally to new highs. I like a momentum move in XAUUSD and would be a buyer of strength through HKEX:2012 – that may not come, but a “body in motion stays in motion” approach is compelling. The trade will need buyers in US Treasuries, a steeper yield curve and US 5yr real rates headed through 1.14% (they currently sit at 1.23%). Anyhow, plenty of going on – get in front of the screens and question where you see the balance of risk – or as is typically the best way in times like this, be agile, react like a ninja and be a slave to price action. Marquee event risks for the week ahead Treasury Secretary Yellen to announce the debt ceiling X-date (2-5 May) - Not a volatility event in itself, but the start of a process that could get blanket market attention going into July – where the market should give the debt ceiling far more consideration once we know the X-date; the explicit point when the US Treasury start having to cut back on essential payments. FOMC meeting (4 May 04:00 AEST / Jay Powell press conference 04:30) - A 25bp hike seems a done deal – could this mark a temporary end to the Fed’s tightening hiking cycle? We see 79/98 economists calling a 25bp hike, with the market pricing an 85% chance of this outcome. With just 5bp of hikes priced for the June FOMC meeting, the market expects strong signals that a pause is coming. With inflation still highly elevated the risks are skewed to a hawkish hike. I see two-way risks for the USD through this meeting. ECB meeting (4 May 22:15 AEST) - A 25bp hike to 3.75% is not just fully priced, there is a small premium for 50 bp. Positioning will be important, with the market long of EUR's and expecting to remain hawkish. There will be a focus on the upcoming wall of TLTRO repayment for EU banks and whether the ECB offer a short-term bridge to offset any potential liquidity issues for EU banks - the market sees the peak/terminal rate of 3.62%, implying 3 more 25bp hikes – does this seem correctly priced? EURJPY and EURAUD are the vehicles for the EUR bulls. EURGBP favoured into the range low of 0.8730. US nonfarm payrolls (5 May 22:30 AEST) - The consensus is for 180k jobs (the economist’s range of 265k to 125k), which would be the lowest number of job additions since Dec 2020 - the U/E rate is eyed at 3.6% (unchanged), with average hourly earnings expected unchanged at 4.2% yoy. The NFP takes place after the FOMC meeting, so the outcome could influence June FOMC rates/OIS pricing. A number below 150k could hit the USD and boost the NAS100. EU CPI (2 May 19:00 AEST) – the outcome could heavily shape pricing for the ECB meeting 2 days later – the market consensus is that we see headline core CPI (estimate) at 7% (from 6.9%), with core CPI at 5.6% (5.7%) with the economists range seen between 5.8% to 5.5% – EURUSD trades a 1.0900 to 1.1100 range – happy to be guided by this, but the market seems skewed for an upside break. RBA meeting (2 May 14:30 AEST) - The market prices a 12% chance of 25bp hike for this meeting, which despite the base case for a hold, seems to be priced on the low side - Leverage funds are long AUD but real money are short - the market is priced for an extended pause from the RBA, which should limit the downside in AUD. Huge support at 0.6580 in AUDUSD, and happy to revisit shorts on a closing break. US JOLTS jobs openings (3 May 00:00 AEST) - The consensus is that jobs openings fall to 9.725m (from 9.931m) - we've seen jobs openings steadily fall since March 2022 - a drop below 9.7m could be a positive for risk and be a small negative for the USD. ISM manufacturing report (2 May 00:00 AEST) – the consensus sees the index at 46.8 (46.3) - a weak number, but less so than the prior month - one for the recession callers will be keen to point out, while crude holds a strong relationship with the new orders sub-component. Euro Bank Lending survey - We look for intel on a tightening of bank lending standards - EU rates pricing, the EUR, and EU bank equity firmly in focus. ISM services (4 May 00:00 AEST) - The market sees the index at 51.8 (from 51.2) – in essence, US service sector data continue to show the US is growing, but below trend. April Employment report (5 May 22:30 AEST) - The market looks for 20k net jobs to be added, with the U/R at 5.1% - the market sees the BoC on hold in June, with rate cuts priced from Q3 and its hard to see this jobs report affecting pricing too intently. USDCAD is finding better sellers of late, and a break of 1.3531 may accelerate the move lower. NZ Q1 Employment report (3 May 08:45 AEST) - The market looks for the U/R of 3.6%, with an employment change +1.8% - could get attention from FX traders, but unlikely to be a significant vol event for the NZD. That said, I see risks NZDUSD trades to 0.6250.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
14
SPX | We are not out of the woods yetEverywhere good news, inflation is dropping, the FED is about to pivot. Energy is dropping and every single technical indicator is telling us that we are in a "perfect bottom". Many argue that we are in a similar situation to 2015, at least the price action of the main indices. So let's discuss some arguments and figure this out. First and foremost, price action. Price action and indicators are ultra-bullish One of the "bullish" indicators is the well-known Stochastic RSI. Stochastic RSI analyses RSI. The 1M and 2M oscillators are at a bottom. So we expect a swing upwards. I have circled the RSI in two separate times, in 2015 and now. RSI has to go through both the 50 mark, and it's WMA. There is significant resistance above. There is more... On the peak of the stochastic on 1W, the difference is night and day. In 2015 we had already easily skipped an "uninverted ribbon", while now we are into significant resistance. This week we had outright rejection. This tells us that the 1M oscillator will have much trouble swinging upwards, since the 1W oscillator is at it's peak and price rejected on resistance. A successful swing should be verified by many oscillators. If you look at the 12M chart, you will understand. 2000: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance). 2015: Stochastic is roaming upwards, RSI above WMA (support). 2022: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance). DJI is super strong, and above the cloud and ribbon Yes it is. But for the last 20 years, DJI stood high in periods of recession. The only exception is the "Trump run era" I made up. When Trump became president, he did made all sorts of "gifts" to blue chips. A comparison between DJI/M2SL and SPX/M2SL in the same period. Right now, DJI is hanging on, amidst a painful recession for most equities. Also look at energy. SKEW is inside a falling wedge. Several weeks ago, it reached an all-time-low. Now, 1M and 2M stochastics are ready for prime time. The same holds true for VIX The FED is burning money, at any moment a liquidity crisis can begin. Ever heard of Wyckoff Distribution? It is the most accurate analysis of stock market. It is the most fundamental behavior. Here are some distributions, in wildly different timeframes. All featuring DJI. DJI/SILVER - 100 year distribution DJI*US10Y - 25 year distribution DXY*DJI - 1 year distribution I'm out www.youtube.com Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
82
US500 short ideaI know a lot of people want the stock market to crash and burn, and for the US economy to go into a recession. Well here is my idea of what to look for in a short trade on the US500, ES, SPX etc. But be warned, after this tax drain, if the US Congress lifts the debt ceiling, your shorts will be blown out of the water. There will be more and more positive fiscal transfers as the level of interest rate as seen in the EFFR stays high and even goes a little higher.
UShort
by Macrobriefing
4-27-23 [spx]gm gm, quick update to the local trajectory on the spx500. after invalidating the 5th leg up locally (via my last post), it becomes abundantly clear to me, that all of these moves - are in fact 3 wave moves. being this corrective by nature, i can now conclude my entire theory by saying this is in fact a massive B wave, and spx will undergo a significant break down once wave b has been completed (quite possible sub-covid-low). --- no downside targets at this time, but i got you whenever i see it. --- >keep in mind, these posts are very general, and you should consistently be doing your own dd, and analysis on the ever-changing market structures. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
1
4-25-23 [spx]good afternoon anon, are you feeling bearish all of a sudden? it's okay, that's natural. --- spx looks to be in a local 4th wave right now - 4073.75 is the hard invalidation on this local wave. if it is breached, the upside move is invalidated and bears take full control over the next 2 weeks. --- >if the bulls are succesful in this local setup, >i am estimating a move up to 4250 into this friday where i believe pce comes in hot, >and sends the market tumbling down into the dungeons. --- nfa, do your own research and dd.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
18
S&P500 Sell signal confirmedThe S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago: Yesterday though it flashed a sell confirmation as the price broke and closed below the Higher Lows trend-line of the recent Channel Up bottom. Both previous times this happened (December 06 2022 and February 17 2023, it was a major sell signal towards a new Channel Up (Higher) Low. Additionally, the 1D MACD has made a Bearish Cross. The Support Zone 1 that is currently being tested, has on those previous fractals provided the first layer of accumulation that later broke and targeted both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Our target is 3915, just above Support Zone 2, which was hit during both previous corrections. Invalidation of this pattern will happen if a 1D candle closes above the Lower Highs trend-line, in which case the 4195 Resistance will be targeted. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
UShort
by TradingShot
1
S&P500: Head and Shoulders emerging. Sell signal.The S&P500 crossed under the 4H MA100 today and is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern on extremly bearish 4H technicals (RSI = 37.236, MACD = -4.910, ADX = 58.125). This is a sell signal especially if the price rebounds now and gets one last rejection on the 4H MA50. A similar pattern formed the February High. We are targeting S1 initially (TP1 = 4,050) and if the index closes under the 1D MA50 (red line), extend selling to S2 (TP2 = 3,925). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
5