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Us500

SPX lacks a trend Since April 2023, the Standard & Poor's 500 index has been going sideways, primarily fluctuating between $4,050 and $4,200. During this time, ADX has declined substantially on the daily time frame, reflecting the lack of a directional trend. We continue to be bearish on the index while waiting for a breakout from the narrow range. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the same setup we introduced recently (with a bearish trigger below Support 1 and tight stop-loss above it); the significance of Support 1 grew with the breakout on 4th May 2023 (when it successfully halted the price decline). Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
9
A traders week ahead playbook - the USD rally getting legs China industrial production (16 May 12:00 AEST) – the market expects a solid improvement in the industrial production read at 10.8%. We also get retail sales (+22%), and fixed asset investment (5.7%) – a big year-on-year improvement shouldn’t surprise given it is measured against a stagnant economy that was in lockdown. However, with China’s data throwing up a few concerns of late (we’ve seen poor import, PPI, and loan data) China’s growth is very much at the heart of market moves. USDCNH seems key to G10 FX pricing, and a further rise towards 7.0000 should weigh on EURUSD and AUDUSD. Japan national CPI (19 May 09:30 AEST) – a data point that flies under the radar, but this print could be very important for Japan govt bond (JGB) and JPY pricing. With expectations of a change in BoJ (Bank of Japan) policy recently pushed back to the July/September BoJ meetings (there is no August BoJ meeting), a hot CPI print could see views of a tweak to policy pushed forward. The market expects headline CPI at 3.5% (from 3.2%) and core at 4.2% (3.8%). The core print is concerning given the extent of the recent rise and if it does indeed come in at 4.2% it would be the highest since Aug 1982. The JPY should be on the radar here and a print into 4.4% could see JPY shorts cover. US retail sales – the market will be watching ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations and the tape in the regional banks, but US retail sales could potentially impact pricing – the market expects a 0.8% lift in sales in April. With just 3bp of hikes priced for the June FOMC, we’d need to see a punchy number (well above 1%) to move the USD on this release. USDJPY is the cleanest play on this data, with the risk skewed for a move back to key resistance at 137.69. UK employment report (16 May 16:00 AEST / 07:00 BST) – the market looks for 5.8% earnings growth (from 5.9%), with the U/E rate unchanged at 3.8%. The market prices 20bp of hikes for the 22 June BOE meeting, and a peak (terminal) bank rate of 4.87%, so the employment report could impact the GBP. GBPUSD trades heavy, with 1.2344 as the big support target. EURGBP saw a bullish outside day on Thursday and I like buy stop orders above 0.8734 for 0.8760/70. Aus Q1 wage price index (17 May – 11:30 AEST) – the market is looking for 3.6% YoY wage growth (0.9% QoQ), with the range of estimates set from 3.8% to 3.5%. With just 1bp of hikes (a 4% chance) priced for the June RBA meeting, a blowout wage print could lift very sanguine rates pricing. Probably good for a small lift in the AUD, but the bigger driver remains concerns around global growth, so China’s data dump is likely more important for the AUD this week. Aus April employment report (18 May – 11:30 AEST) – the consensus is calling for 25k net jobs created, with the U/E rate unchanged at 3.5% and the participation rate at 66.7%. Unlikely a volatility event for the AUD, or at least one where any initial move is likely quickly faded. Canada CPI (16 May 22:30 AEST) – the market expects headline CPI at 4.2% YoY (from 4.3%) and core at 4.3% (from 4.6%). The market sees the Bank of Canada (BoC) on pause through 2023, with cuts priced in January 2024 – the risk is we see a downside surprise opening cuts in Q3 23. Upside risks in USDCAD remain for a re-test of 1.3667. Fed speakers – it’s a massive week of Fed speakers and it could get noisy, although I suspect they will all say a similar thing; that inflation is still too high, and that interest rates may need to go up further, although they will need to assess the lag effect of policy tightening. Chair Powell speaks with Ben Bernanke (20 May at 01:00 AEST) and that could be worth a listen. ECB speakers – we see 12 ECB speeches this coming week
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Pepperstone
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 MAY 15 WEEKCME_MINI:ES1! Are we seeing the bearish ascending triangle already? As with NQ, tendency to take rotational trades has diminished. Scenario Planning: 1) If market remain within 4163 - 4118 = No trade 2) Larger rotation 4198 - 4068 = trade at boundary of range Volume Analysis: Weekly: Lower vol down bar close off low = some demand present Daily: Lower vol down bar close off low = some demand present Price reaction levels: Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept 4303 4198 4163-4118 (No trade zone) 4065 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week. *For educational purpose only.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by paradox677
S&P500: 4H Death Cross forming and can be short term bullish.The S&P500 is on a tight 4H range with 4H technicals neutral (RSI = 47.011, MACD = 1.690, ADX = 20.555) inside the Megaphone pattern. By Tuesday we should see a 4H Death Cross completed, which even though technically bearish, it made a short term rebound on the last two occurencies. As long as S1 holds, we will target the top of the Megaphone (TP = 4,220). If the bottom of the Megaphone breaks, we will target the S2 (TP = 3,925). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
15
US500 H4 | Approaching 78.6% Fibo resistanceUS500 could approach a key resistance level and potentially reverse from here. We could see price move down to our take profit target. Entry: 4159.10 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss: 4186.60 Why we like it: There is a swing-high resistance Take Profit: 4107.30 Why we like it: There is an overlap support close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
UShort
by VantageMarkets
S&P500 Trade the Megaphone's breakoutThe S&P500 is trading inside a Megaphone pattern, which in December 2022 broke to the downside and hit Fibonacci 0.236 of the Channel Up. With the 1day MA50 supporting however for 40 straight days, it is equally probable to see an upward breakout. If the price crosses over the Megaphone, buy and target the top of the long term Channel Up at 4350. If it crosses under the Megaphone, sell and target the bottom at 3950. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheCryptagon
10
US500 Will Collapse! SELL! My dear subscribers , US500 looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4125.0 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Goal - 4097.9 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by AnabelSignals
7
spx 900Good morning esteemed individuals, bag holders, and exit liquidity providers. In my previous post, I dissected the Dow Jones and received a plethora of animosity for it - thus, I have returned to impart additional truths upon the disgruntled boomer brethren, much to their chagrin. --- Within Elliott Wave Theory, the third and fifth waves typically exhibit a notable bearish divergence, as elegantly depicted in this 12-month chart. Higher degree Wave 4s often retrace to the territory of the preceding degree's Wave 4. To affirm the culmination of the 13-year movement spanning from 2009 to 2022, one may peruse my post below: Note that, at the time, I was observing the market through a rather conservative lens, failing to consider the myriad of appalling truths I have since unearthed regarding the system to which we all regrettably belong. --- What lies ahead surpasses the darkest depths of our current imaginations. You, the one in denial, shall bear the brunt of the impact. --Brace for the worst, and may fortune favor your 401k.
SP:SPX
by notoriousbids
2
ES1! H4 | Falling to 38.2% FiboES1! is pulling back towards a key overlap support and potentially reverse from this level. Price could hit our buy entry at 4072.50 and bounce up from here. Our stop loss will be at 4023.00. The take profit level will be at 4158.00 which is an overlap resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Rockqet
US500 H4 | Falling to overlap supportUS500 is falling towards a key support level and reverse from here. We could see price bounce up to our take profit target. Entry: 4058.45 Why we like it: There is an overlap support at the recent swing-lows Stop Loss: 4016.35 Why we like it: There is an overlap support Take Profit: 4132.25 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
ULong
by VantageMarkets
S&P500 The weekly chart puts everything into perspectiveAlmost 2 months ago and the S&P500 (SPX) hasn't diverged from our original idea, after buying the bottom of the 6-month Channel Up: We believe that looking into the 1W (weekly) time-frame again will help at giving a fresh outlook and technically the best illustration of the current situation. First we narrowed the Channel Up to the candle bodies and treat the wicks as pressure points only. As you see, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) is the key element here as it has been the Resistance since the 1W candle of August 22 2022. The price came very close to breaking it on three 1W candles: September 12 2022, January 30 2023 and last week (May 01 2023). Our trading plan is simple. If SPX closes a candle above the 1W MA100, we will buy the break-out and target the 4327 Resistance (August 16 High). Until then, we will wait for 4020 and buy at the bottom of the 1 month Megaphone pattern, approximately near the 1D MA200. In that case the bullish target will be the 4195 Resistance. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
1
Fears from banking sector might be about to spread elsewhereFollowing the last FOMC meeting, notable developments in the stock market took place. First, volatility increased significantly among regional banks, seeing shares of companies like PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance, Metropolitan Bank, and Home Street plunging by high double-digits. These declines, however, did not last long, and financial institutions recovered much of their post-FOMC losses in the past three trading sessions. Then yesterday, these companies soared during the pre-market and got sold off during the regular trading hours. Interestingly, these erratic moves follow Jerome Powell’s reassurance (from a week ago) that the banking system is “safe and sound” and making progress toward recovery. While this might be true for major banks that are well-positioned to weather the storm, regional banks are still at risk of spreading contagion that can lead to a domino effect (similar to the one we saw last year in the cryptocurrency market with the bust of Celsius Network, Voyager, FTX, etc.). As a result, this might lead to more broad fear in the markets, especially once more economic indicators will start to worsen. On the topic of these indicators, so far, an extremely low level of unemployment has been used as an excuse by many economists to say there is no recession ahead (despite history being full of examples when extremely low unemployment preceded the start of a recession). Therefore, we do not consider low unemployment a reliable indicator to assess that the U.S. economy will dodge a recession (also bear in mind that a person not actively seeking a job is not counted as unemployed). Overall, we would say that labor market data show a lot of discrepancies that could suggest otherwise (a growing number of continuous jobless claims, a declining number of multiple jobholders, etc.). In addition to that, rate hikes tend to affect the economy with a lag (often noted as a lag of between 6 to 18 months), meaning the economy still has not felt the effect of the number of previous rate hikes, at least since November 2022 (equal to at least 100 basis points). With the FED’s target of a 2% inflation rate still being very distant, we think interest rates will be required to be held higher for much longer than the market is pricing in at the moment. In fact, we believe there is still a very high chance there won’t be any rate cuts in 2023. Accordingly, we expect this realization among investors to lead to a big repricing event we mentioned before. As such, our price target for SPX stays at $3,500. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the price action of particular banking stocks in yesterday’s pre-market. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the unemployment rate in the United States. Yellow arrows indicate extremely low levels of unemployment that preceded lasting periods of elevated unemployment. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows continuous jobless claims. The metric is up approximately 40% since September 2022 and about 10% since the start of 2023. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
15
50 years of chop.good morning, --- what if i told you right now, that the stock market was about to enter into a 50 year correction? you'd probably dismiss it right away and go about your day, and that's natural, i get it. --- i'm not here to appease to your overall bias - in fact, i am here to directly oppose it. --- what i'm bringing to you today, is the idea of the completion of the primary third wave in the stock market. >if one looks at the yearly picture, one will notice a bearish divergence between the intermediate 3rd and 5th wave, of the primary degree wave (3). >this is highly indicative that the wave has indeed been completed. --- i am estimating that the 4th wave takes roughly 50 years to complete, and i theorize that it has begun as of the recent top in 2022. the original author of this idea was robert pretcher (the writer of elliott wave theory principle), this idea was initially introduced to me by my mentor, @bitdoctor a few years back. it has lingered in my mind through out the years, it has haunted me every single day as i have been looking for ways to confirm or find a way to invalidate it. as of today, i believe i have the necessary data to prove their original theory to be in fact, true. --- >this doesn't mean that we can't make a new high, in fact that is not what i'm trying to say here at all. >what i'm simply stating here, is that there's an extremely high probability that the stock market is going to move sideways for the next 50 years. >i might even be early a few years here, so please don't use this idea as any kind of financial advice, because quite frankly - it is very far from it. --- the minimum downside target for the macro fourth wave, is the previous degree wave 4 territory, which in this case sits between : $7,000 -12,000. 🍒
TVC:DJI
by notoriousbids
4
S&P500: The Megaphone gave us the perfect BuyThe S&P500 gave us the buy entry we were seeking at the bottom of the Megaphone, which happened to be on the 1D MA50 as well, a standard support level on uptrends. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 52.091, MACD = 17.390, ADX = 22.702) which indicates that there is upside potential to this move. On our latest trading plan we set a TP = 4,200 and this is intact. On the long term the Channel Up is targeting R2 (TP = 4,330) which is the August 16th 2022 High. If the price pulls back we will buy on S2 (3,925). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
14
US500 Will Go Lower! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 4h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 4141.6. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 4085.4. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
UShort
by SignalProvider
12
spx500, updated [primary]good evening,,, follow up to my last post on the nasdaq. it is thanks to this particular picture, that the nasdaq count becomes possible. --- the spx500 came down in 5 waves from all time high, labeled wave (a). from the 2022 lows, it begun retracing in what looks like a perfect 3 wave move. there's a beautiful running flat in there which was very tricky to see. --- i believe the spx500 is about to complete wave c of wave (b) into this summer. once it does, i will give you a comprehensive update + some downside targets to look forward to. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
2
A traders' week ahead playbook - A fresh set of challenges awaitMarquee event risks to navigate: Debt ceiling headlines – President Biden meets with Congressional leaders on Tuesday to try and inject some urgency in forging an agreement to raise the debt limit before 1 June. We’re already seeing clear stress in US T-bills maturing in mid-June, so the market is certainly taking the threat of moving past the June X-date seriously. Given the tight window to negotiate, there is a tight window which increases the possibility of a short-term extension. It seems a matter of time before traders start to look at the JPY and gold as the default debt ceiling hedges. US CPI (Wed 22:30 AEST) – the marquee data point of the week. The consensus estimate is for headline CPI at 0.4% MoM, and 0.3% MoM on core CPI, with the core YoY pace eyed at 5.5% (from 5.6% in March). With the market not pricing any hikes for June it would need a big upside surprise to see the market price in hikes for the next Fed meeting – interestingly, in the past 6 CPI prints the USD has fallen in five of those (in the 5 minutes after the data drops), while gold has rallied in all 6 occurrences. A print below 5.3% would see cuts being priced for June and price July as a 50:50 proposition; a clear positive for gold and see the NAS100 push towards my 13,800 target. Fed’s Senior loan officers survey (Monday at 04:00 AEST) – with the market looking for a tightening in lending standards, resulting in a credit crunch and potentially future recessionary conditions, this survey matters. Fed chair Jay Powell knew the outcome and mentioned the survey in his press conference last week, detailing the survey will show tighter lending practices. The survey has historically been well correlated where tighter lending standards results in wider corporate credit spreads and drawdown in the S&P500. BoE meeting (Thursday 23:00 AEST) – Given the recent inflation print, the BoE should almost certainly hike by 25bp, with the market fully pricing this outcome. The split in the MPC voting may matter, with the markets discounting that the BoE hike again in June and possibly August. GBP has been strongest vs the JPY and EUR, with EURGBP eyeing a break of the YTD range lows. GBPUSD trades at the highest levels since May 2022 and while it’s tough making a call on GBPUSD with US CPI due this week, I’m not fading this strength just yet. US PPI (Thursday 22:30 AEST) – The market will pick and choose when it wants to react to the PPI data point, so it’s a risk event to consider. The consensus is we see PPI +2.5% YoY (from 2.7%), with core PPI eyed at 3.3% YoY (from 3.4%). While the PPI data is important (especially when considering corporate margins), unless we see a big surprise, I’d expect market moves to be fairly contained over this print. China (April) credit data – there is no set time for the credit data (new yuan loans, M2 money supply and aggregate financing, but given credit has been largely front-loaded in 2023, to support the re-opening, it should be expected that new yuan loans and aggregate financing fall significantly from the lofty levels we saw in March. An outcome above RMB1400b (in new yuan loans) could boost China’s markets and China proxies (AUD and copper, for example). The CHINAH index is tracking a range, but I see scope for a push into 7000. China CPI/PPI (Thursday 11:30 AEST) – the market sees CPI at a lowly 0.3% YoY (from 0.7%) and PPI at -3.2%. In a world of high inflation, China is the clear outlier and a below-consensus reading could see renewed calls for policy easing – China’s bond markets are finding solid buyers of late (yields lower) and this may start to impact, with a weaker yuan the possible result - watch USDCNH as a guide and any upside in this cross (yuan weakness) could weigh on the AUD and NZD. US April NFIB small business optimism (Tuesday 21:00 AEST) – this is a survey I am watching very closely given the leverage US SMEs have to the smaller and regional US banks. The market sees the survey coming in at 89.8 (from 90.1 in March), which if correct, would be the weakest read since 2013 and a sharp decline from levels seen in 2021. Australia govt FY 2024 budget (Tuesday 19:30 AEST) – the budget is being viewed on three main ideals: the cost-of-living relief, economic growth, and Australia being more resilient to international shocks. One that should get media airtime, and could impact the AUS200, but it’s unlikely to be a driver of AUD volatility. AUDUSD shorts have been covering and we see price testing trend resistance, but the big level remains the Feb- May range high at 0.6800. Fed speakers – Kashkari, Jefferson, Williams, Waller, Daly, Bullard ECB speakers – Lane, Rehn, Vasle, Schnabel, Centeno, De Cos, Guindos
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone