S&P500 Megaphone and MA50 (1d) call for a buy.The S&P500 failed to cross over the 4195 Resistance (1) and the rejection pulled the price back to the MA50 (1d).
In the process, a Megaphone pattern has emerged and today's decline hit its bottom.
This is a strong short term buy signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell if it closes a 1d candle under the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 4195 (Resistance 1).
2. 3950 (bottom of the long term Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is bearish, trading under the MA level. The Support Zone where the previous two Higher Lows of the Channel Up were priced is lower. Use it as an additional entry signal for a potential bottom Buy.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Us500
Will dreams about raging bull market get crushed today?The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has been eagerly anticipated by investors as the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. While this move is intended to combat high inflation, it will significantly impact the (already fragile) U.S. economy and have far-reaching implications for both businesses and consumers. One of the most significant impacts of the rate hike will be on debt servicing, which will become more expensive as interest rates rise. In addition to higher borrowing costs, the rate hike will contribute to slower economic growth, decreased consumer spending, and lower stock market returns. Moreover, this tightening of monetary conditions will come at a time when many U.S. regional banks are struggling to stay afloat, driven by a combination of factors, including loan defaults, capital outflows, and increased competition from larger banks.
The potential contagion of the regional banking crisis has become a more pressing concern in light of recent failures within the financial system. In the past two months alone, we have seen the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, followed by a bust of First Republic Bank last week. Then, this week, we already saw massive declines among other regional banks, including PacWest Bancorp (-27% yesterday), Western Alliance (-15% yesterday), Metropolitan Bank (-20% yesterday), HomeStreet Bank (-14% yesterday), Zions Bancorporation (-10% yesterday).
With these developments in the market, we would like to voice a word of caution to investors and once again reiterate our belief that we are merely going through a very deceptive bear market rally in market indices (rather than the raging bull market that so many people suggest). Accordingly, we remain bearish on the U.S. market and maintain a price target of $3500 for SPX.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the setup for SPX with the bearish trigger below Support 1 and tight stop-loss above it.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
S&P500 Strong buy signal on the Channel Up.The S&P500 is trading inside a Channel Up for more than 6 months.
The price is now between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci levels, a zone that was the last consolidation during the previous two rallies to the top of the Channel Up.
The Target Zone is between 4280 - 4350, with 4280 being the 1.236 Fibonacci level where the previous Higher High was formed.
The RSI is still on a Rising Support as both previous rallies.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Megaphone pattern on 4H.The S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago:
Right now we see a Megaphone pattern in formation on the 4H time-frame and with the price above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) holding since March 29, we are targeting the top (Higher Highs trend-line) at 4200.
If the price closes above the Megaphone we will buy again, targeting the top of the long-term Channel Up at 4270. Similarly we will go short if we close below the 4H MA200 and target 4040. If the price breaks below the Megaphone we will sell again, targeting the bottom of the long-term Channel Up at 3930.
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US500: Will Keep Falling! The Next Target is:
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the US500 pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell!
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S&P500 Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a selling opportunity around 4150 zone, US500 is trading in a downtrend and currently seems to be in a correction phase in which it is approaching the major trend at 4150 zone. I would also keep the FOMC in the watchlist as a hawkish FOMC should trigger Dollar strength which does correlate negatively with the stock market.
Trade safe, Joe.
US500 H4 | Potential bullish reversal?US500 could fall towards a key support level and potentially bounce from here. We could see price move up to our take profit target.
Entry: 4095.05
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Stop Loss: 4061.00
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support
Take Profit: 4154.11
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance
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4666good eve'
decided to share my full local count of this b wave.
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i'm basically looking at it as a double zig-zag from the lows.
a double zig-zag is a 3-three-wave move (labeled 3-3-3).
it channels beautifully, and it aligns with my general outlook over the next 360 days.
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once this b wave is completed,
the market should enter into a c wave,
which i also theorize will see an extension.
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🌙
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S&P500: Buy conditions inside a Megaphone pattern.The S&P500 index is approaching the 4H MA200 inside a month long Megaphone pattern. The 4H technicals are deep in red (RSi = 38.959, MACD = 4.530, ADX = 22.263) and inside this pattern when that took place, buy signals have started to emerge.
We are buyers and target the pattern's top (TP = 4,200) as long as the price doesn't break under the Megaphone or closes under the 1D MA50. If it does, we will short, expecting a bearish breakout targeting near the S2 (TP = 3,925).
Prior idea:
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The FED foresees "mild recession" later this year Multiple interesting developments took place in the U.S. market yesterday. First, CPI and inflation rate came in better than expected (although the core inflation accelerated by 0.1% year over year), sparking a short-lived bounce in U.S. indices, followed by relative stabilization in the market ahead of the FOMC minutes. Then, once the report came in, the market started to decline amid a sudden change in the tone of the FED officials, which now foresee a “mild recession” later this year.
This comes to us as no surprise since, already last fall, we noted that the FED projections were implicitly pointing to the recession in 2023 and 2024. However, this shift from an implicit tone to an explicit one is a major development that should not be overlooked, especially as the FED continues to indicate higher interest rates from the current levels. While hiking interest rates is very effective at fighting inflation, which will continue to decline toward the end of 2023, it is hardly bullish for the equity market.
Due to that, we maintain a bearish stance on the U.S. market and the price target for SPX at HKEX:3 400. We will pay a lot of attention to banking earnings (starting tomorrow with Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Wells Fargo and continuing with other major and regional banks in the following weeks). In general, we do not expect the current earnings season for stocks to be any better than the previous one. To confirm our bearish thesis, we will seek more downgrades in the outlook and decline in corporate profits. Furthermore, we will monitor the labor market, bank deposits, loan delinquencies, consumer spending, and rate of consumer savings (among other important metrics).
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the 1-minute chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the time when inflation and CPI data were released.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the 1-minute chart of SPX and the subsequent price action following the release of FOMC minutes.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Illustration 1.03
The illustration above portrays the daily chart of SPX and fan lines acting as resistance and support levels.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
US500 S&P Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video we take a look at the #US500 #S&P closely, revealing that it has reached a substantial resistance level and rejected now finding support. Additionally, there is a gap in price below it and an accumulation of sell orders in the form of stop losses that could be a target for bigger players. Throughout the video, we delve into trend analysis, price action, market structure, and price gaps. We also briefly mention a possible trading opportunity.
Short Idea for US500 futuresDear traders,
As I tried to show on my chart, Us500 seems that its doing the circulated W2 of the impulse. Please note that the shown time frames and levels should be respected otherwise this count wont be true. I will also update during the coming days about wave 3 target of the main impulse if this count is the correct one.
Remainder: This idea is not a financial trade advise.
So now back down to the 200 day?Traders,
We have now touched the underside of our macro uptrend (3) three times and the bulls have been unable to break to the topside again. Is is time for them to sit the bench for a few weeks, get their wind back, and let the bears take us back down to retest that 200 day one more time? It might be.
Stew