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US Market Technicals Ahead (19 Apr – 23 Apr 2021)Investors will look for further confirmation of the private sector’s recovery from the pandemic as the earnings season gathers pace, with dozens of companies from a wide range of industries will report quarterly results this week. So far with one week in, companies are beating earnings estimates by a wide margin of more than 84%, according to Refinitiv. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data will remain in focus as investors watch for further signals on the strength of the economy, with the latest reports on home sales and manufacturing activity topping the agenda. Elsewhere, in Europe, markets are keeping an eye on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting for further guidance on interest rates and stimulus. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) increased 1.41% (+58.3 points) to another record close, extending its weekly rally into its 4th consecutive session. The newly established all time high is now at 4,191 level for $SPX. US 10-year rates extended 5-week lows of 1.566%, despite strong inflation and employment data last week. In addition, housing starts rose to the highest level since 2006 last week, pointing to a strong rebound in both consumer spending and the jobs market. The previously highlighted Bearish Divergence of $SPX remains valid, as sessional volume remains below its 50 days average range for the past week without any committed buying pressure reflected in this rally. A price retracement upon a eutrophic rally beyond the structure of a technical trend channel is always imminent on such scenario. However, the hypothesis of a short term correction for $SPX would remain healthy and strong for the bullish sentiment of the index. The immediate support to watch for $SPX is now at 4,060 level, a break of the two weeks low. Earnings Step Up into High Gear There are about 80 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings in the week ahead, including 10 Dow stocks, in what will be the first big week of the first quarter earnings season. In addition, this week’s earnings calendar also includes high-profile names like Coca-Cola ($KO), Johnson & Johnson) ($NJ), Procter & Gamble ($PG), Intel ($INTC), and IBM ($IBM), Snap ($SNAP), AT&T ($T), Verizon ($VZ), Lockheed Martin ($LMT), Halliburton ($HAL), Honeywell ($HON), and American Express ($AXP) Most of the focus will be on Netflix ($NFLX), which is due to report its latest financial results after the closing bell on Tuesday. The streaming giant is forecast to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.97 on revenue of $7.14 billion, according to estimates. NFLX shares hit a record high on Jan. 20, right after Q4 results, but has since slipped back. Options markets are pricing in a post-earnings move of 7% in the stock. Earnings from battered airlines American Airlines ($AAL), United Airlines ($UAL), and Southwest Airlines ($:LUV) are also on the docket. Flash U.S. PMIs IHS Markit’s composite flash U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April is due on Friday, amid expectations for an increase to 59.9 from a reading of 59.7 in March The index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors, is seen as a good guide to overall economic health. In addition, this week’s rather light economic calendar also features the latest data on initial jobless claims, which fell to a new pre-pandemic low last week. European Central Bank Policy Meeting The European Central Bank is all but certain to keep interest rates at their current record low levels at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde will hold a closely watched press conference 45 minutes after the rate announcement as investors seek further clues on central bank’s future pace of bond purchases. The ECB has boosted its bond buying program to prevent a rise in borrowing costs from derailing the region’s economy, however recent signs of a swift recovery could raise questions over when it will start to withdraw support.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (12 Apr – 16 Apr 2021)Price volatility is expected to pick up this week. First-quarter earnings season gets underway with updates expected from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Citigroup ($C) and Wells Fargo ($WFC). While results are expected to be fairly strong, most will be watching to see what companies say about the outlook for the current quarter and the rest of the year, given expectations for faster economic growth. On the economic data front, U.S. consumer price inflation (Tuesday) and retail sales (Thursday) will be the biggest data points of the week. Global financial markets will also pay close attention to comments from a Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday, for additional insight into the outlook for monetary policy in the months ahead. Elsewhere, in Asia, China will become the first major economy to report first-quarter growth data when it publishes highly anticipated GDP numbers. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) furthered its ascend with a gain of +2.12% (+85.5 points) for the week, establishing an all time high closing of 4,122 level. This was aligned with our weekly market analysis highlighted last week. It is important to note that the past week of daily incremental price action on $SPX has reflected a clear Bearish Divergence with its transactional volume. A price retracement upon a eutrophic rally beyond the structure of a technical trend channel is always imminent on such scenario. However, the hypothesis of a short term correction for $SPX would remain healthy and strong for the bullish sentiment of the index. With price volatility expected to pick up this week due to the series of major economic events, the immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 4,030 level, a trendline resistance turned support level. U.S. 1Q Earnings Season Kicks Off The first quarter earnings season on Wall Street will kick off in the coming week, with banking giants JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC) all set to release their latest quarterly results on Wednesday. Earnings from Bank of America ($BAC), Citigroup ($C), and Blackrock ($BLK) are then due on Thursday, followed by Morgan Stanley ($MS) on Friday. Overall, Q1 earnings are expected to have jumped nearly 25% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. That would be the biggest quarterly gain since 3Q 2018, when tax cuts under former President Donald Trump drove a surge in profit growth. Financials are expected to show one of the biggest earnings gains, up 75.6% year-on-year, while materials are seen up 45.4%. U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) CPI is expected to have risen 0.5% last month and 2.5% over the prior year, according to estimates. If confirmed, it would mark the fastest increase in eight months. Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation is projected to climb 0.2% from a month earlier and 1.6% on a year-over-year basis, a tad faster than the 1.3% increase registered in February. Rising inflation expectations helped spark a first-quarter selloff in Treasuries that drove yields to pre-pandemic highs in recent sessions. U.S. Retail Sales The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales jumped 5.5%, rebounding from February’s steep decline of 3%, which was the biggest drop since April 2020. Excluding the automobile sector, sales are expected to rise 4.8%, snapping back from a drop of 2.7% in the preceding month. Fed Speakers A number of Fed speeches will get market attention in the week ahead, as traders watch for further clues on interest rates. Topping the agenda will be remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who will be speaking on Wednesday at an Economic Club of Washington event. The Fed chair has reiterated lately that any emergence of inflation should be temporary and that the central bank will keep its accommodative policies in place for a long time. China 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) China will post its first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Friday morning. The data is expected to show the world’s second-largest economy grew 18.8% in the first three months of 2021 when compared to the year-ago period, accelerating from the previous quarter’s 6.5% pace. Besides the GDP report, the Asian nation will also publish data on March trade balance, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and fixed asset investment. China’s economy has shown signs of improvement in recent months, with activity rebounding to pre-pandemic levels thanks to a resurgence in global manufacturing and a sharp recovery in domestic spending.
UShort
by jfsrevg
1
SP500 Lifetime OpportunityHi there, SP500 at the moment is a clear buy with target above 4000 If we pay attention to the DXY chart, we are starting a uptrend but still on sideways moment, which SP500 due to many retails shorting it, has been making new highs every week, as long as dollar is weak it will keep doing it, but dollar is soon ending this sideways market to start an uptrend. SP500 then will top at that moment If we look at the elliot wave theory, we are in the final phase, Blow off, close to a top to begin then a new trend. This is a long term view, if your looking to sell it, sell only at the mentioned wave 5, near it. Good luck
U
by fernandoc17
9
US 500/S&P 500/SPX 500 Multi-Timeframe analysis (03/03/2021)Hi Traders US 500/S&P 500/SPX 500 Multi-Timeframe analysis (03/03/2021) H1 Chart ( Weak Down ) No comment for now Support & Resistance 3897.04 3905.85 3868.33 3914.29 3850.14 3927.99 H4 Chart ( Strong Up ) No comment for now Support & Resistance 3787.46 3914.29 3738.17 3963.58 3677.03 4024.72 Daily Chart ( Strong Up ) Waiting for a retracement lower towards the 3869.47 support level, in order to reinstate LONG positions. Next important support is the 3730.53 level. Support & Resistance 3869.47 3990.36 3730.53 4195.25 3664.58 4529.22 Weekly Chart ( Strong Up) Waiting for a retracement lower towards the 3588.24 support level, in order to reinstate LONG positions. Next important support is the 3337.64 level. Support & Resistance 3588.24 3963.58 3337.64 4190.55 3209.43 4808.01
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Avramis
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 Feb – 12 Feb 2021)All three US major averages finished the week in the green, with each posting its best week since November 2020 as fears of the short-squeeze in a handful of stocks leading to broader market contagion subsided. Investors will be focusing on earnings and the prospects for a hefty new coronavirus relief package in the week ahead. Markets will also be watching the latest consumer price inflation numbers on Wednesday amid expectations for an uptick as the economic backdrop improves and the vaccine roll-out gains momentum. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) kicks off the month of Feburary with a weekly gain of +5.03%, the best week of the index since November 2020. This rally not only fully recovered the correction from the initial week, but it also established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,895 level. Additionally, $SPX is now back above its 20DMA, along with the consolidated Trend Channel highlighted last week. At the current junction, the week’s rally of $SPX have exhibited a Bearish Divergence pattern; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870. 1. Earnings Better-than-expected corporate results so far in the fourth quarter have driven up analysts’ expectations, and S&P 500 ($SPX) companies are on track to post earnings growth for the period instead of a decline as initially expected. Upcoming U.S. reports in the week ahead include Cisco Systems ($CSCO), Twitter ($TWTR), General Motors ($GM), Pepsi ($PEP), Coca-Cola ($KO), AstraZeneca ($AZN) and Walt Disney ($DIS). Upbeat earnings along with stimulus talks and progress on the vaccine rollout boosted equities last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recording their largest weekly percentage gains since the U.S. elections in early November. Upbeat fourth-quarter results would bolster expectations for a strong rebound in earnings in 2021 and help to ease investor worries that valuations are overstretched. 2. Stimulus U.S. President Joe Biden’s push for his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package gained momentum on Friday after the U.S. Senate narrowly approved a budget blueprint allowing Democrats to push the legislation through Congress in coming weeks with or without Republican support. Republicans have proposed a $600 billion aid package, less than a third the size of the Democratic plan. Congressional committees are set to start drawing up legislation this week and Speaker Nancy Pelosi has predicted the final legislation could pass Congress before March 15, when special unemployment benefits that were added during the pandemic expire. Data on Friday showing a smaller-than-expected rebound in the U.S. labor market in January underscored the need for more stimulus to bolster the economy. 3. Inflation data Market watchers will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s CPI data amid growing expectations that an uptick in inflation could be larger and longer lasting than the Federal Reserve is currently anticipating. U.S. Treasury investors are betting on rising inflation as the U.S. economy returns to more normal levels in the second half of this year, after contracting at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020. The prospect of a new coronavirus relief package is adding to inflation expectations. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak about the labor market on Wednesday at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims will also be in focus.
UShort
by jfsrevg
1