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US Market Technicals Ahead (31 May – 4 June 2021)In a week shortened by Monday’s Memorial Day holiday, Investors' focus turns to the May's nonfarm payrolls report to see if the unexpectedly weak April employment report was just a one-time blip Meanwhile, the ISM PMI surveys should signal solid manufacturing and service growth rates during May, on the back of the country's re-opening efforts, the ongoing government support. Energy traders will be eyeing Tuesday’s OPEC+ meeting and the euro zone is to release inflation data against a backdrop of concerns over what rising price pressures could mean for expansionary monetary policy. Here is what you need to know to start your week S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) erased all losses for the month of May, re-gaining +1.07% (+44.4 points) during the week. $SPX have successfully broke out of its sideway box range channel that was highlighted last week, infusing clarity on its short term trading direction for the month of June. $SPX is currently just 20 points away (+1.00%) from its all time high level of 4,245 level. In the meanwhile, $SPX is reflecting a minor two weeks bearish divergence within its falling price volatility along with daily trading volume on its up-days. The immediate support to watch for $SPX is remains at 4,110 level, a potential renewed test of both 20D and 50D moving averages. May jobs report could echo April weakness Friday’s May jobs report will indicate whether the unexpected weakness seen in the April jobs report was a one-off or the start of a more persistent slowdown the labor market recovery. The economy is expected to have added 650,000 new jobs in May. Just 266,000 jobs were created in April, far short of the nearly one million expected. The economy is still more than 8 million jobs short of where it was before the pandemic. Economists generally are still expecting strong job growth in the months to come, as the economy reopens. ISM PMIs, Fed speakers ISM manufacturing data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed by ISM services data on Thursday. Both readings are expected to be strong, but to highlight supply chain issues that are leading to shortages and higher prices. ADP nonfarm payrolls data is due on Thursday, one day later than usual due to Monday’s holiday, along with the weekly figures on initial jobless claims. The Fed’s beige book on the economy is due out on Wednesday and several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak during the week, including Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed Chair will participate in a panel at a climate change conference on Friday together with International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Wary stock market Stock market investors will be closely watching economic data and comments from Fed officials amid ongoing concerns the central bank may begin to pull back on its massive stimulus measures as price pressures rise. Inflation concerns have persisted for several weeks and weighed on growth names, pulling down the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which posted its first monthly decline since October. Volatility has risen even as the S&P 500 has rebounded to less than 1% below its May 7 record high, and the index saw its smallest monthly gain in the past four in May. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (3 May – 7 May 2021)As markets enter into the month of May, investors will turn to the US jobs report due this Friday, which will probably point to an acceleration in the labor market recovery. Appearances by Federal Reserve officials and other data, including PMIs for indications on the health of the U.S. economy will also be closely watched, as the reopening continues On the corporate front, the first-quarter earnings season continues, with reports to watch including Pfizer ($PFE), General Motors ($GM), PayPal ($PYPL), Uber ($UBER), and Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK) Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) squeezed out a gain of, +0.34% (+14.1 points), with price action remaining flat and muted as cautioned previously. The current ATR-14 range of $SPX is trading at its lowest of the year at 40 points/day, an almost 50% shave off from the Year to Date peak of 71 points per day (March 2021). With $SPX daily price action transiting into a consolidation phase at its high, along with sessional volume well remaining below its 50 days average range for the 4th consecutive week, it is worth to note that the number of US equities trading above its individual 100 Day Moving Average have declined to only 66%. At such juncture, it is of utmost importance for market participant to remain prudent with their risk exposure on the long side of the market. The immediate support to watch for $SPX remains at 4,110 level, a minor classical support level. Bumper job gains expected The U.S. economy is expected to have notched up another strong month of jobs growth in April with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report expected to show 978,000 jobs created, after 916,000 jobs were added in March – the largest increase since last August. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 5.7% from 6%. Data late last week showed that economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, putting the economy on track for what is expected to be the strongest performance this year in nearly four decades. Unprecedented fiscal stimulus and easing anxiety over the pandemic, with all adult Americans now eligible for vaccination, have resulted in a faster economic rebound in the U.S. compared to the rest of the world. Earnings Earnings are rebounding from last year’s pandemic-fueled lows, with results now in from more than half of the S&P 500 companies. Dozens more companies are due to report in the coming week, with vaccine makers Pfizer ($PFE) reporting Tuesday, followed by Moderna ($MRNA) on Thursday. Travel related earnings to watch include results from Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc ($HLT) and Caesars Entertainment ($CZR), while some consumer brands are also on the schedule, including Anheuser Busch Inbev ($ABI) and Estee Lauder ($EL). Some other notable earnings include General Motors ($GM), Uber ($UBER), ViacomCBS ($VIAC), DraftKings Inc ($DKNG) and Beyond Meat ($BYND). Earnings are raising some fresh questions in the debate over growth versus value. After a decade of steadily under-performing the overall market, value has been a favorite reopening bet and investors will be watching to see if this trend continues. Fed Chairman speaks Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is speaking on Monday, but he is not expected to offer any fresh insights on the economy during his appearance to discuss community development at an online conference hosted by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. Last week Powell said the “time is not yet” to talk about tapering the Fed’s $120 billion monthly pace of bond buying.
U
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (26 Apr – 30 Apr 2021)The earnings season enter into its busiest phase in the coming week, with most of the focus will be on the quarterly earnings result of five big-name mega-cap tech companies – Facebook ($FB), Amazon ($AMZN), Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL), Market participants will also be bracing for heightened volatility on the economic data front the release of the first estimate of Q1 GDP (Advance GDP QoQ), alongside durable goods orders, and personal income and outlays. This should lend further support to the notion that the economy is continuing to recover from its virus-related slowdown. New spending and tax proposals from the White House, along with Federal Reserve Policy Decision will also be in focus. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) traded with a muted tone, losing -0.14% (-5.7 points) for the week. With $SPX trading flat, a pause in the existing rally is plausible with the previously highlighted Bearish Divergence of $SPX remains valid, as sessional volume remains below its 50 days average range for the past week without any committed buying pressure reflected in this rally. With price volatility expected to pick up this week due to almost one-third of Dow ($DJI) and S&P500 ($SPX) companies reporting earnings this week, the immediate support to watch for $SPX is now at 4,110 level, a minor week long support coinciding with break of 20D MA level. FAAMG + Tesla TSLA Earnings There are about 180 S&P 500 companies, including 10 Dow components, reporting corporate results in what will be the busiest week of the first quarter earnings season on Wall Street. Most of the focus will be on the five big-name mega-cap tech companies – Facebook ($FB), Amazon ($AMZN), Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL) – collectively known as the ‘FAAMG’ group of stocks. All five are set to enjoy another quarter of blockbuster earnings and sales growth, given their growing dominance in the tech space. Software and cloud giant Microsoft and internet search titan Google are both expected to release their latest numbers on Tuesday after the markets close. Tech and consumer electronics conglomerate Apple and social media company Facebook then follow with their respective earnings after the bell on Wednesday. E-commerce and cloud behemoth Amazon is slated to release Q1 results after the market closes on Thursday. Meanwhile, Tesla ($TSLA) – the sixth most valuable company listed on the New York Stock Exchange – reports on Monday. Some of other high-profile tech names reporting this week are Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD), Twitter ($TWTR), Pinterest ($PINS), Shopify ($SHOP), eBay ($EBAY), Qualcomm ($QCOM), and Texas Instruments ($TXN). Boeing, Caterpillar , GE Highlight Blue Chip Earnings Staying on the earnings front, a diverse group of blue chips, such as Boeing ($:BA), Caterpillar ($CAT), General Electric ($GE), 3M Company ($MMM), Visa ($V), Mastercard ($MA), and United Parcel Service ($UPS) will also report their latest quarterly results this week. Q1 reports from restaurant operators McDonald’s ($MCD), Starbucks ($BUX), and Domino’s Pizza ($DPZ) are also on the agenda, as are corporate results from automakers Ford Motor Company ($F), and Nio ($NIO). Pharmaceutical companies, like AstraZeneca ($AZN), Merck ($MRK), Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY), and Gilead Sciences ($GILD) are all on the docket as well. Finally, Big Oil majors, ExxonMobil ($XOM) and Chevron ($CVX), are both set to round up the week when they release their latest earnings on Friday. The Q1 corporate earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats so far, according to Refinitiv. Federal Reserve Rate Decision The Federal Reserve is not expected to take any action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET on Wednesday, keeping it in a range between 0.0%-0.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold what will be a closely watched press conference 30 minutes after the release of the Fed’s statement. Powell is widely expected to defend the central bank’s policy of letting inflation rise above its 2% target, reiterating his message that the recent pick-up in prices is seen as temporary. U.S. Advanced Q1 GDP Investors will keep an eye on a preliminary reading of first quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for fresh clues on the strength of the economy. The data is expected to show the economy expanded at an annual rate of 6.5% in the January-March period, accelerating from growth of 4.3% in the previous quarter.
U
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (19 Apr – 23 Apr 2021)Investors will look for further confirmation of the private sector’s recovery from the pandemic as the earnings season gathers pace, with dozens of companies from a wide range of industries will report quarterly results this week. So far with one week in, companies are beating earnings estimates by a wide margin of more than 84%, according to Refinitiv. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data will remain in focus as investors watch for further signals on the strength of the economy, with the latest reports on home sales and manufacturing activity topping the agenda. Elsewhere, in Europe, markets are keeping an eye on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting for further guidance on interest rates and stimulus. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) increased 1.41% (+58.3 points) to another record close, extending its weekly rally into its 4th consecutive session. The newly established all time high is now at 4,191 level for $SPX. US 10-year rates extended 5-week lows of 1.566%, despite strong inflation and employment data last week. In addition, housing starts rose to the highest level since 2006 last week, pointing to a strong rebound in both consumer spending and the jobs market. The previously highlighted Bearish Divergence of $SPX remains valid, as sessional volume remains below its 50 days average range for the past week without any committed buying pressure reflected in this rally. A price retracement upon a eutrophic rally beyond the structure of a technical trend channel is always imminent on such scenario. However, the hypothesis of a short term correction for $SPX would remain healthy and strong for the bullish sentiment of the index. The immediate support to watch for $SPX is now at 4,060 level, a break of the two weeks low. Earnings Step Up into High Gear There are about 80 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings in the week ahead, including 10 Dow stocks, in what will be the first big week of the first quarter earnings season. In addition, this week’s earnings calendar also includes high-profile names like Coca-Cola ($KO), Johnson & Johnson) ($NJ), Procter & Gamble ($PG), Intel ($INTC), and IBM ($IBM), Snap ($SNAP), AT&T ($T), Verizon ($VZ), Lockheed Martin ($LMT), Halliburton ($HAL), Honeywell ($HON), and American Express ($AXP) Most of the focus will be on Netflix ($NFLX), which is due to report its latest financial results after the closing bell on Tuesday. The streaming giant is forecast to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.97 on revenue of $7.14 billion, according to estimates. NFLX shares hit a record high on Jan. 20, right after Q4 results, but has since slipped back. Options markets are pricing in a post-earnings move of 7% in the stock. Earnings from battered airlines American Airlines ($AAL), United Airlines ($UAL), and Southwest Airlines ($:LUV) are also on the docket. Flash U.S. PMIs IHS Markit’s composite flash U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April is due on Friday, amid expectations for an increase to 59.9 from a reading of 59.7 in March The index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors, is seen as a good guide to overall economic health. In addition, this week’s rather light economic calendar also features the latest data on initial jobless claims, which fell to a new pre-pandemic low last week. European Central Bank Policy Meeting The European Central Bank is all but certain to keep interest rates at their current record low levels at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde will hold a closely watched press conference 45 minutes after the rate announcement as investors seek further clues on central bank’s future pace of bond purchases. The ECB has boosted its bond buying program to prevent a rise in borrowing costs from derailing the region’s economy, however recent signs of a swift recovery could raise questions over when it will start to withdraw support.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (12 Apr – 16 Apr 2021)Price volatility is expected to pick up this week. First-quarter earnings season gets underway with updates expected from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Citigroup ($C) and Wells Fargo ($WFC). While results are expected to be fairly strong, most will be watching to see what companies say about the outlook for the current quarter and the rest of the year, given expectations for faster economic growth. On the economic data front, U.S. consumer price inflation (Tuesday) and retail sales (Thursday) will be the biggest data points of the week. Global financial markets will also pay close attention to comments from a Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday, for additional insight into the outlook for monetary policy in the months ahead. Elsewhere, in Asia, China will become the first major economy to report first-quarter growth data when it publishes highly anticipated GDP numbers. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) furthered its ascend with a gain of +2.12% (+85.5 points) for the week, establishing an all time high closing of 4,122 level. This was aligned with our weekly market analysis highlighted last week. It is important to note that the past week of daily incremental price action on $SPX has reflected a clear Bearish Divergence with its transactional volume. A price retracement upon a eutrophic rally beyond the structure of a technical trend channel is always imminent on such scenario. However, the hypothesis of a short term correction for $SPX would remain healthy and strong for the bullish sentiment of the index. With price volatility expected to pick up this week due to the series of major economic events, the immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 4,030 level, a trendline resistance turned support level. U.S. 1Q Earnings Season Kicks Off The first quarter earnings season on Wall Street will kick off in the coming week, with banking giants JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC) all set to release their latest quarterly results on Wednesday. Earnings from Bank of America ($BAC), Citigroup ($C), and Blackrock ($BLK) are then due on Thursday, followed by Morgan Stanley ($MS) on Friday. Overall, Q1 earnings are expected to have jumped nearly 25% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. That would be the biggest quarterly gain since 3Q 2018, when tax cuts under former President Donald Trump drove a surge in profit growth. Financials are expected to show one of the biggest earnings gains, up 75.6% year-on-year, while materials are seen up 45.4%. U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) CPI is expected to have risen 0.5% last month and 2.5% over the prior year, according to estimates. If confirmed, it would mark the fastest increase in eight months. Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation is projected to climb 0.2% from a month earlier and 1.6% on a year-over-year basis, a tad faster than the 1.3% increase registered in February. Rising inflation expectations helped spark a first-quarter selloff in Treasuries that drove yields to pre-pandemic highs in recent sessions. U.S. Retail Sales The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales jumped 5.5%, rebounding from February’s steep decline of 3%, which was the biggest drop since April 2020. Excluding the automobile sector, sales are expected to rise 4.8%, snapping back from a drop of 2.7% in the preceding month. Fed Speakers A number of Fed speeches will get market attention in the week ahead, as traders watch for further clues on interest rates. Topping the agenda will be remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who will be speaking on Wednesday at an Economic Club of Washington event. The Fed chair has reiterated lately that any emergence of inflation should be temporary and that the central bank will keep its accommodative policies in place for a long time. China 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) China will post its first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Friday morning. The data is expected to show the world’s second-largest economy grew 18.8% in the first three months of 2021 when compared to the year-ago period, accelerating from the previous quarter’s 6.5% pace. Besides the GDP report, the Asian nation will also publish data on March trade balance, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and fixed asset investment. China’s economy has shown signs of improvement in recent months, with activity rebounding to pre-pandemic levels thanks to a resurgence in global manufacturing and a sharp recovery in domestic spending.
UShort
by jfsrevg
1
SP500 Lifetime OpportunityHi there, SP500 at the moment is a clear buy with target above 4000 If we pay attention to the DXY chart, we are starting a uptrend but still on sideways moment, which SP500 due to many retails shorting it, has been making new highs every week, as long as dollar is weak it will keep doing it, but dollar is soon ending this sideways market to start an uptrend. SP500 then will top at that moment If we look at the elliot wave theory, we are in the final phase, Blow off, close to a top to begin then a new trend. This is a long term view, if your looking to sell it, sell only at the mentioned wave 5, near it. Good luck
U
by fernandoc17
9
US 500/S&P 500/SPX 500 Multi-Timeframe analysis (03/03/2021)Hi Traders US 500/S&P 500/SPX 500 Multi-Timeframe analysis (03/03/2021) H1 Chart ( Weak Down ) No comment for now Support & Resistance 3897.04 3905.85 3868.33 3914.29 3850.14 3927.99 H4 Chart ( Strong Up ) No comment for now Support & Resistance 3787.46 3914.29 3738.17 3963.58 3677.03 4024.72 Daily Chart ( Strong Up ) Waiting for a retracement lower towards the 3869.47 support level, in order to reinstate LONG positions. Next important support is the 3730.53 level. Support & Resistance 3869.47 3990.36 3730.53 4195.25 3664.58 4529.22 Weekly Chart ( Strong Up) Waiting for a retracement lower towards the 3588.24 support level, in order to reinstate LONG positions. Next important support is the 3337.64 level. Support & Resistance 3588.24 3963.58 3337.64 4190.55 3209.43 4808.01
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Avramis
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 Feb – 12 Feb 2021)All three US major averages finished the week in the green, with each posting its best week since November 2020 as fears of the short-squeeze in a handful of stocks leading to broader market contagion subsided. Investors will be focusing on earnings and the prospects for a hefty new coronavirus relief package in the week ahead. Markets will also be watching the latest consumer price inflation numbers on Wednesday amid expectations for an uptick as the economic backdrop improves and the vaccine roll-out gains momentum. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) kicks off the month of Feburary with a weekly gain of +5.03%, the best week of the index since November 2020. This rally not only fully recovered the correction from the initial week, but it also established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,895 level. Additionally, $SPX is now back above its 20DMA, along with the consolidated Trend Channel highlighted last week. At the current junction, the week’s rally of $SPX have exhibited a Bearish Divergence pattern; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870. 1. Earnings Better-than-expected corporate results so far in the fourth quarter have driven up analysts’ expectations, and S&P 500 ($SPX) companies are on track to post earnings growth for the period instead of a decline as initially expected. Upcoming U.S. reports in the week ahead include Cisco Systems ($CSCO), Twitter ($TWTR), General Motors ($GM), Pepsi ($PEP), Coca-Cola ($KO), AstraZeneca ($AZN) and Walt Disney ($DIS). Upbeat earnings along with stimulus talks and progress on the vaccine rollout boosted equities last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recording their largest weekly percentage gains since the U.S. elections in early November. Upbeat fourth-quarter results would bolster expectations for a strong rebound in earnings in 2021 and help to ease investor worries that valuations are overstretched. 2. Stimulus U.S. President Joe Biden’s push for his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package gained momentum on Friday after the U.S. Senate narrowly approved a budget blueprint allowing Democrats to push the legislation through Congress in coming weeks with or without Republican support. Republicans have proposed a $600 billion aid package, less than a third the size of the Democratic plan. Congressional committees are set to start drawing up legislation this week and Speaker Nancy Pelosi has predicted the final legislation could pass Congress before March 15, when special unemployment benefits that were added during the pandemic expire. Data on Friday showing a smaller-than-expected rebound in the U.S. labor market in January underscored the need for more stimulus to bolster the economy. 3. Inflation data Market watchers will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s CPI data amid growing expectations that an uptick in inflation could be larger and longer lasting than the Federal Reserve is currently anticipating. U.S. Treasury investors are betting on rising inflation as the U.S. economy returns to more normal levels in the second half of this year, after contracting at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020. The prospect of a new coronavirus relief package is adding to inflation expectations. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak about the labor market on Wednesday at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims will also be in focus.
UShort
by jfsrevg
1