Smart money Concept US500 Sell, selling S&P500 Smart money Concept Possible sell on US500 S&P500
Market pretty bullish on Friday, looking for a push towards what may be a bearish order block. could possibly see some liquidity hunt to trap buyers before pushing lower.
Us500signals
US Market Technicals Ahead (26 Apr – 30 Apr 2021)The earnings season enter into its busiest phase in the coming week, with most of the focus will be on the quarterly earnings result of five big-name mega-cap tech companies – Facebook ($FB), Amazon ($AMZN), Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL), Market participants will also be bracing for heightened volatility on the economic data front the release of the first estimate of Q1 GDP (Advance GDP QoQ), alongside durable goods orders, and personal income and outlays. This should lend further support to the notion that the economy is continuing to recover from its virus-related slowdown.
New spending and tax proposals from the White House, along with Federal Reserve Policy Decision will also be in focus.
Here is what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) traded with a muted tone, losing -0.14% (-5.7 points) for the week. With $SPX trading flat, a pause in the existing rally is plausible with the previously highlighted Bearish Divergence of $SPX remains valid, as sessional volume remains below its 50 days average range for the past week without any committed buying pressure reflected in this rally.
With price volatility expected to pick up this week due to almost one-third of Dow ($DJI) and S&P500 ($SPX) companies reporting earnings this week, the immediate support to watch for $SPX is now at 4,110 level, a minor week long support coinciding with break of 20D MA level.
FAAMG + Tesla TSLA Earnings
There are about 180 S&P 500 companies, including 10 Dow components, reporting corporate results in what will be the busiest week of the first quarter earnings season on Wall Street. Most of the focus will be on the five big-name mega-cap tech companies – Facebook ($FB), Amazon ($AMZN), Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL) – collectively known as the ‘FAAMG’ group of stocks. All five are set to enjoy another quarter of blockbuster earnings and sales growth, given their growing dominance in the tech space.
Software and cloud giant Microsoft and internet search titan Google are both expected to release their latest numbers on Tuesday after the markets close.
Tech and consumer electronics conglomerate Apple and social media company Facebook then follow with their respective earnings after the bell on Wednesday.
E-commerce and cloud behemoth Amazon is slated to release Q1 results after the market closes on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Tesla ($TSLA) – the sixth most valuable company listed on the New York Stock Exchange – reports on Monday.
Some of other high-profile tech names reporting this week are Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD), Twitter ($TWTR), Pinterest ($PINS), Shopify ($SHOP), eBay ($EBAY), Qualcomm ($QCOM), and Texas Instruments ($TXN).
Boeing, Caterpillar , GE Highlight Blue Chip Earnings
Staying on the earnings front, a diverse group of blue chips, such as Boeing ($:BA), Caterpillar ($CAT), General Electric ($GE), 3M Company ($MMM), Visa ($V), Mastercard ($MA), and United Parcel Service ($UPS) will also report their latest quarterly results this week.
Q1 reports from restaurant operators McDonald’s ($MCD), Starbucks ($BUX), and Domino’s Pizza ($DPZ) are also on the agenda, as are corporate results from automakers Ford Motor Company ($F), and Nio ($NIO).
Pharmaceutical companies, like AstraZeneca ($AZN), Merck ($MRK), Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY), and Gilead Sciences ($GILD) are all on the docket as well.
Finally, Big Oil majors, ExxonMobil ($XOM) and Chevron ($CVX), are both set to round up the week when they release their latest earnings on Friday.
The Q1 corporate earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats so far, according to Refinitiv.
Federal Reserve Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve is not expected to take any action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET on Wednesday, keeping it in a range between 0.0%-0.25%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold what will be a closely watched press conference 30 minutes after the release of the Fed’s statement.
Powell is widely expected to defend the central bank’s policy of letting inflation rise above its 2% target, reiterating his message that the recent pick-up in prices is seen as temporary.
U.S. Advanced Q1 GDP
Investors will keep an eye on a preliminary reading of first quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for fresh clues on the strength of the economy.
The data is expected to show the economy expanded at an annual rate of 6.5% in the January-March period, accelerating from growth of 4.3% in the previous quarter.
S&P500 Bearish Signals forming on 4HPattern: Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: Sell as the MACD made a Bearish Cross after the (orange) uptrend Channel broke sideways, in a move similar to February 10 and March 12.
Target: 3970 (below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) as per the previous similar fractals). If the 4H MACD breaks -15.00 then you may extend the selling as low as the MACD Support Zone or just above the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line).
On the longer-term the trend remains bullish until the greater pattern is invalidated and as suggested by the most recent S&P500 signal shown below, it is safer to buy those Megaphone 4H MA100 pull-backs:
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US Market Technicals Ahead (5 Apr – 9 Apr 2021)Stock market gains could continue with with the $SPX index scaling the 4,000 level for the first time last Thursday. IMF’s spring meeting and minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the ECB’s latest meetings will be in the spotlight this coming week.
Investors will also be watching if Congress will pass President Joe Biden’s massive 2 Trillion infrastructure plan announced last week. Markets in China, Germany, the UK and Australia will be closed on Monday for holidays.
Here is what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) surged to its all time high with a gain of +1.61% (+64.1 points) for the week, scaling the 4,000 level for the first time last Thursday.
Those gains could continue after the Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March, the most in seven months, while jobs growth in February was also larger than previously estimated. T
The immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 3,989 level, a previous resistance turned support level going forward.
IMF meeting
The IMF is to begin its spring meetings (virtually) on Monday where policymakers will give a snapshot of the economic fallout from the pandemic, but also release updated forecasts for growth for 2021 and 2022.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has already indicated that the updated World Economic Outlook will see an upward revision to January’s forecast for 5.5% global economic growth this year.
Central bank minutes
The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday and investors will be on the lookout for any fresh insights on inflation amid concerns that unprecedented stimulus will lead to rising price pressures.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell played down concerns about inflation after the bank’s March meeting, saying policymakers see inflationary pressures as transient.
The ECB is to release its latest meeting minutes on Thursday. Last week ECB President Christine Lagarde said investors could test the bank’s willingness to rein in rising borrowing costs “as much as they want”.
Powell, Fed speakers
Investors will be watching an appearance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell who is due to discuss the global economy on an IMF panel Thursday.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is to speak at a webinar hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on Monday to discuss the global economic recovery from the pandemic.
S&P500 The 4H MA50 is the keyPattern: Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: (A) Buy if after the 4H MA50 break-out (blue trend-line), the level holds (as on Feb 02 - 04). If it doesn't, (B) sell towards the lower (-) Fibonacci extensions (as on March 01 - March 04).
Target: (A) The 0.5 Fib (rough estimate 4040). (B) The -1.5 Fib (rough estimate 3800).
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S&P500 Bullish Break-outPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price broke above the inner Lower Highs trend-line and is turning the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support. The RSI is on a Bullish Divergence.
Target: 4,040 long-term (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension ).
Previous S&P signal:
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US5001. Down trend channel, nearly at the to of the channel. 2. looking for rejections of that resistance
US500 - Big Short Wave on the TsunamiI have been waiting for this decisive moment for a long time.
Please refer to my chart for consideration.
This is not financial advice
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Above is my personal opinion, I do not encourage anyone to follow suit, please manage your money, Good luck!
Xin Liar
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 Feb – 12 Feb 2021)All three US major averages finished the week in the green, with each posting its best week since November 2020 as fears of the short-squeeze in a handful of stocks leading to broader market contagion subsided. Investors will be focusing on earnings and the prospects for a hefty new coronavirus relief package in the week ahead. Markets will also be watching the latest consumer price inflation numbers on Wednesday amid expectations for an uptick as the economic backdrop improves and the vaccine roll-out gains momentum.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) kicks off the month of Feburary with a weekly gain of +5.03%, the best week of the index since November 2020. This rally not only fully recovered the correction from the initial week, but it also established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,895 level. Additionally, $SPX is now back above its 20DMA, along with the consolidated Trend Channel highlighted last week.
At the current junction, the week’s rally of $SPX have exhibited a Bearish Divergence pattern; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870.
1. Earnings
Better-than-expected corporate results so far in the fourth quarter have driven up analysts’ expectations, and S&P 500 ($SPX) companies are on track to post earnings growth for the period instead of a decline as initially expected. Upcoming U.S. reports in the week ahead include Cisco Systems ($CSCO), Twitter ($TWTR), General Motors ($GM), Pepsi ($PEP), Coca-Cola ($KO), AstraZeneca ($AZN) and Walt Disney ($DIS).
Upbeat earnings along with stimulus talks and progress on the vaccine rollout boosted equities last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recording their largest weekly percentage gains since the U.S. elections in early November.
Upbeat fourth-quarter results would bolster expectations for a strong rebound in earnings in 2021 and help to ease investor worries that valuations are overstretched.
2. Stimulus
U.S. President Joe Biden’s push for his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package gained momentum on Friday after the U.S. Senate narrowly approved a budget blueprint allowing Democrats to push the legislation through Congress in coming weeks with or without Republican support.
Republicans have proposed a $600 billion aid package, less than a third the size of the Democratic plan.
Congressional committees are set to start drawing up legislation this week and Speaker Nancy Pelosi has predicted the final legislation could pass Congress before March 15, when special unemployment benefits that were added during the pandemic expire.
Data on Friday showing a smaller-than-expected rebound in the U.S. labor market in January underscored the need for more stimulus to bolster the economy.
3. Inflation data
Market watchers will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s CPI data amid growing expectations that an uptick in inflation could be larger and longer lasting than the Federal Reserve is currently anticipating.
U.S. Treasury investors are betting on rising inflation as the U.S. economy returns to more normal levels in the second half of this year, after contracting at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020.
The prospect of a new coronavirus relief package is adding to inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak about the labor market on Wednesday at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims will also be in focus.
us500us500 find good suport at 3720 worst is 3680
and its time for bull target 3840
stop 3650
good luck
S&P500 aims at 3800Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy (a) if the MACD makes a Bullish Cross (every prior 1D Bullish Cross has delivered an extreme rise), or (b) if the RSI approaches its Higher Lows trend-line.
Target: (a) 3880, (b) 3800
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S&P500 preparing an end of the year rally to 3780SPX continues to trade within the Channel Up that I previously spotted and right now the keys are a certain Fibonacci sequence as well as the MACD formation on the 4H time-frame.
As you see the MACD is printing a similar formation with November 23 - 26. That was when S&P500 made its aggressive Bullish Leg from 3545 to 3655. It made its top on the -0.1 Fibonacci extension then pulled back to the 0.382 Fib retracement and took some time to price a Higher High on the -0.618 Fib extension.
If the same pattern is repeated, then the price could pull back seeking support within the 4H MA50 and 0.382 Fib and then rise to the -0.618 extension which is around 3790. That would set up S&P on a nice end-of-the-year rally.
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S&P500 Targeting 3720 short-termPattern: Rising Wedge within Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price found support on the 4H MA50, which has been holding since November 23. If the Rising Wedge breaks, buy near the Higher Low of the Channel Up.
Target: 3720 (just below the -0.382 Fibonacci extension like every previous Higher High).
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S&P500 Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Buy either on the Channel's median or on the Higher Low trend-line or if the 3675 Resistace breaks first. (B) Sell below the 3545.
Target: (A) 3670 (just below the Resistance). If 3675 breaks target 3710 (0.5 Fibonacci extension). (B) The 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Previous S&P500 trade:
US500 3541.1 - 0.32 % SHORT IDEA * CORRECTION AND PRICE ACTIONHey everyone
A look at the S&P 500 that is currently trading is a bear flag looking for a break below of the structure, the index rallied up with the bull and was bound to correct this move to complete that big gartley pattern so previous swing lows will be our targets and guided by the fibonacci levels a break above of structure will change the whole trading plan.
As always higher time-frames for direction and whats happening in the overall chart and lower time-frames for entry opportunities.
LET'S SEE HOW IT GOES..
HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET THE WINS RUN...
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ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES
RISK-MANAGEMENT
PERIOD - SWING TRADE
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