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SPX500 vs TLT : Are you expecting a big than ever drop? When...Just a fast idea about correlation between SPX500 (US500) and TLT. I'm more bearish than bullish over Sp500, however I just find out TLT correlation with market. Just read more... I was expected a major drop here in September, but seems not strong enough. My other target is around March / April. Why? Because of Financial results. Can we expect super good gains in a market that drained every stock reserve in 2 year where retails "buyed everything they can find, while at home?" I suppose no. You simply can't sell a 10$ Toys for 100$. If you can't find enough supply, at least you can rise price a little to 15$, maybe 20$. But if before you where able to sell 200.000 pcs x 10$ = 2M$, now you only have 10.000 x 15$ = 150.000$. Freaky! Can we expect a faster recover in production while there are production "bottle necks" everywhere? I suppose no. If I need 200.000 toys, I must find them. But if production limit is 1000 toys for week, and there are no stock reserve and high demand, my order must be shared with others. Price will be rise a little. And if my production machine broke, I must wait for a spare part. And if I produce Spare Part I must wait for chip supplier to produce it. To many "bottle necks" everywhere. Can we expect a fast FED tapering? Maybe not, will only accelerate collapse. So anyone will stay in silence, waiting ... for collapse. BUT WAIT... WHY TLT? IS IT WORTH? Maybe not so worth, but higher TLT prices means less buying interest on Governative Bond. Lower prices means more are buying TLT, and this means "standard stock market credibility" just slowing down , melting off. Reads : sell stock & buy bond / commodities. As always is only a matter of "capital movement" not to HODL till die. Just learn from Pro. Small gains everydays just build more capital than HODL. YES BUT MY BTC STORE VALUE IS GREAT! TO THE MOOOON! Ok, free to believe this. Only ask your self if Pro will really trust on BTC as temporary Store Value (like GOLD is only temporary) or if... they are going to screw every small retail. TO MAKE IT SIMPLE Whatever will happen, Oil prices, Tapering, Yield Interest, BTC to the moon... from a perspective of "simple buy and sell goods" we are already screwed. We need time to recap production, to fill warehouse, to arrange product stock supply reserve. Hope is oil price will no go up any further, hope is in some sensate economical intervention, hope is... in cypto decentralization Fomo anarchic mind set. Ok... We are all screwed. No way, only matter of time. ONE LAST THING... Can you figure the "Black Swan" when will enter in the play field? Who or what will be the Jolly Joker for a complete decline? Share your vision. ----------------- This is not Financial advice. Only my idea. Feel free to share, comment or add missing information. And why not? Will you consider to donate something for some other post like this? Just contact me.
NASDAQ:TLT
by STABLECOINS_GURU
US Market Technicals Ahead (19 July – 23 July 2021)Despite solid results last week as earnings season ramped up, investors have been shifting their focus to data releases with global economic growth beginning to show signs of fatigue while many countries, particularly in Asia that are struggling to curb the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. The spectre of elevated inflation, which the market has long feared, is also haunting investors. Treasury yields were plunging, signaling fearful investors are padding their portfolios with Treasuries. The second-quarter earnings continues this week, with companies such as IBM ($IBM), Netflix ($NFLX), Intel ($INTC), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) and Twitter ($TWTR) reporting their results. Other key data to follow include: US building permits and housing starts. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index $SPX corrected -0.99% (-43.2 points) to close at 4,328 level during the week, and perceived safe haven assets, including the yen and gold, edged higher amid fears of rising inflation and a surge in coronavirus cases, while oil prices fell on oversupply worries. The initial break out of $SPX trend channel resistance is met with rejection for its 3rd time as cautioned in the previous week. The channel support is currently priced at 4,240 level, -2% away from existing level. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,285 level; an immediate break of support level established this month.
U
by jfsrevg
US500 4238.0 - 0.21% SHORT IDEA * PRICE ACTION & STRUCTUREHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE, READY FOR THE MARKET THIS WEEK, HERE'S A LOOK AT THE S&P 500 FROM THE 4 HOURLY CHART. The S&P500 is currently trading in an ascending triangle looking for a break below of this structure to see the bears taking control of this index couple of confirmations should come into play before this is confirmed. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - INTRA-DAY TRAD
UShort
by PULEMokhothu
US Market Technicals Ahead (31 May – 4 June 2021)In a week shortened by Monday’s Memorial Day holiday, Investors' focus turns to the May's nonfarm payrolls report to see if the unexpectedly weak April employment report was just a one-time blip Meanwhile, the ISM PMI surveys should signal solid manufacturing and service growth rates during May, on the back of the country's re-opening efforts, the ongoing government support. Energy traders will be eyeing Tuesday’s OPEC+ meeting and the euro zone is to release inflation data against a backdrop of concerns over what rising price pressures could mean for expansionary monetary policy. Here is what you need to know to start your week S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) erased all losses for the month of May, re-gaining +1.07% (+44.4 points) during the week. $SPX have successfully broke out of its sideway box range channel that was highlighted last week, infusing clarity on its short term trading direction for the month of June. $SPX is currently just 20 points away (+1.00%) from its all time high level of 4,245 level. In the meanwhile, $SPX is reflecting a minor two weeks bearish divergence within its falling price volatility along with daily trading volume on its up-days. The immediate support to watch for $SPX is remains at 4,110 level, a potential renewed test of both 20D and 50D moving averages. May jobs report could echo April weakness Friday’s May jobs report will indicate whether the unexpected weakness seen in the April jobs report was a one-off or the start of a more persistent slowdown the labor market recovery. The economy is expected to have added 650,000 new jobs in May. Just 266,000 jobs were created in April, far short of the nearly one million expected. The economy is still more than 8 million jobs short of where it was before the pandemic. Economists generally are still expecting strong job growth in the months to come, as the economy reopens. ISM PMIs, Fed speakers ISM manufacturing data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed by ISM services data on Thursday. Both readings are expected to be strong, but to highlight supply chain issues that are leading to shortages and higher prices. ADP nonfarm payrolls data is due on Thursday, one day later than usual due to Monday’s holiday, along with the weekly figures on initial jobless claims. The Fed’s beige book on the economy is due out on Wednesday and several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak during the week, including Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed Chair will participate in a panel at a climate change conference on Friday together with International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Wary stock market Stock market investors will be closely watching economic data and comments from Fed officials amid ongoing concerns the central bank may begin to pull back on its massive stimulus measures as price pressures rise. Inflation concerns have persisted for several weeks and weighed on growth names, pulling down the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which posted its first monthly decline since October. Volatility has risen even as the S&P 500 has rebounded to less than 1% below its May 7 record high, and the index saw its smallest monthly gain in the past four in May. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (26 Apr – 30 Apr 2021)The earnings season enter into its busiest phase in the coming week, with most of the focus will be on the quarterly earnings result of five big-name mega-cap tech companies – Facebook ($FB), Amazon ($AMZN), Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL), Market participants will also be bracing for heightened volatility on the economic data front the release of the first estimate of Q1 GDP (Advance GDP QoQ), alongside durable goods orders, and personal income and outlays. This should lend further support to the notion that the economy is continuing to recover from its virus-related slowdown. New spending and tax proposals from the White House, along with Federal Reserve Policy Decision will also be in focus. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) traded with a muted tone, losing -0.14% (-5.7 points) for the week. With $SPX trading flat, a pause in the existing rally is plausible with the previously highlighted Bearish Divergence of $SPX remains valid, as sessional volume remains below its 50 days average range for the past week without any committed buying pressure reflected in this rally. With price volatility expected to pick up this week due to almost one-third of Dow ($DJI) and S&P500 ($SPX) companies reporting earnings this week, the immediate support to watch for $SPX is now at 4,110 level, a minor week long support coinciding with break of 20D MA level. FAAMG + Tesla TSLA Earnings There are about 180 S&P 500 companies, including 10 Dow components, reporting corporate results in what will be the busiest week of the first quarter earnings season on Wall Street. Most of the focus will be on the five big-name mega-cap tech companies – Facebook ($FB), Amazon ($AMZN), Apple ($AAPL), Microsoft ($MSFT), and Google-parent Alphabet ($GOOGL) – collectively known as the ‘FAAMG’ group of stocks. All five are set to enjoy another quarter of blockbuster earnings and sales growth, given their growing dominance in the tech space. Software and cloud giant Microsoft and internet search titan Google are both expected to release their latest numbers on Tuesday after the markets close. Tech and consumer electronics conglomerate Apple and social media company Facebook then follow with their respective earnings after the bell on Wednesday. E-commerce and cloud behemoth Amazon is slated to release Q1 results after the market closes on Thursday. Meanwhile, Tesla ($TSLA) – the sixth most valuable company listed on the New York Stock Exchange – reports on Monday. Some of other high-profile tech names reporting this week are Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD), Twitter ($TWTR), Pinterest ($PINS), Shopify ($SHOP), eBay ($EBAY), Qualcomm ($QCOM), and Texas Instruments ($TXN). Boeing, Caterpillar , GE Highlight Blue Chip Earnings Staying on the earnings front, a diverse group of blue chips, such as Boeing ($:BA), Caterpillar ($CAT), General Electric ($GE), 3M Company ($MMM), Visa ($V), Mastercard ($MA), and United Parcel Service ($UPS) will also report their latest quarterly results this week. Q1 reports from restaurant operators McDonald’s ($MCD), Starbucks ($BUX), and Domino’s Pizza ($DPZ) are also on the agenda, as are corporate results from automakers Ford Motor Company ($F), and Nio ($NIO). Pharmaceutical companies, like AstraZeneca ($AZN), Merck ($MRK), Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY), and Gilead Sciences ($GILD) are all on the docket as well. Finally, Big Oil majors, ExxonMobil ($XOM) and Chevron ($CVX), are both set to round up the week when they release their latest earnings on Friday. The Q1 corporate earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats so far, according to Refinitiv. Federal Reserve Rate Decision The Federal Reserve is not expected to take any action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET on Wednesday, keeping it in a range between 0.0%-0.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold what will be a closely watched press conference 30 minutes after the release of the Fed’s statement. Powell is widely expected to defend the central bank’s policy of letting inflation rise above its 2% target, reiterating his message that the recent pick-up in prices is seen as temporary. U.S. Advanced Q1 GDP Investors will keep an eye on a preliminary reading of first quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for fresh clues on the strength of the economy. The data is expected to show the economy expanded at an annual rate of 6.5% in the January-March period, accelerating from growth of 4.3% in the previous quarter.
U
by jfsrevg
S&P500 Bearish Signals forming on 4HPattern: Bullish Megaphone. Signal: Sell as the MACD made a Bearish Cross after the (orange) uptrend Channel broke sideways, in a move similar to February 10 and March 12. Target: 3970 (below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) as per the previous similar fractals). If the 4H MACD breaks -15.00 then you may extend the selling as low as the MACD Support Zone or just above the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line). On the longer-term the trend remains bullish until the greater pattern is invalidated and as suggested by the most recent S&P500 signal shown below, it is safer to buy those Megaphone 4H MA100 pull-backs: ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> hujianghua --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by TradingShot
8
US Market Technicals Ahead (5 Apr – 9 Apr 2021)Stock market gains could continue with with the $SPX index scaling the 4,000 level for the first time last Thursday. IMF’s spring meeting and minutes from the last FOMC meeting and the ECB’s latest meetings will be in the spotlight this coming week. Investors will also be watching if Congress will pass President Joe Biden’s massive 2 Trillion infrastructure plan announced last week. Markets in China, Germany, the UK and Australia will be closed on Monday for holidays. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) surged to its all time high with a gain of +1.61% (+64.1 points) for the week, scaling the 4,000 level for the first time last Thursday. Those gains could continue after the Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March, the most in seven months, while jobs growth in February was also larger than previously estimated. T The immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 3,989 level, a previous resistance turned support level going forward. IMF meeting The IMF is to begin its spring meetings (virtually) on Monday where policymakers will give a snapshot of the economic fallout from the pandemic, but also release updated forecasts for growth for 2021 and 2022. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has already indicated that the updated World Economic Outlook will see an upward revision to January’s forecast for 5.5% global economic growth this year. Central bank minutes The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday and investors will be on the lookout for any fresh insights on inflation amid concerns that unprecedented stimulus will lead to rising price pressures. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell played down concerns about inflation after the bank’s March meeting, saying policymakers see inflationary pressures as transient. The ECB is to release its latest meeting minutes on Thursday. Last week ECB President Christine Lagarde said investors could test the bank’s willingness to rein in rising borrowing costs “as much as they want”. Powell, Fed speakers Investors will be watching an appearance by Fed Chair Jerome Powell who is due to discuss the global economy on an IMF panel Thursday. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is to speak at a webinar hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on Monday to discuss the global economic recovery from the pandemic.
ULong
by jfsrevg
S&P500 The 4H MA50 is the keyPattern: Bullish Megaphone. Signal: (A) Buy if after the 4H MA50 break-out (blue trend-line), the level holds (as on Feb 02 - 04). If it doesn't, (B) sell towards the lower (-) Fibonacci extensions (as on March 01 - March 04). Target: (A) The 0.5 Fib (rough estimate 4040). (B) The -1.5 Fib (rough estimate 3800). ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> jsunde73 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 Bullish Break-outPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H. Signal: Buy as the price broke above the inner Lower Highs trend-line and is turning the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support. The RSI is on a Bullish Divergence. Target: 4,040 long-term (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension ). Previous S&P signal: ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> xBTala --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
10
US Market Technicals Ahead (8 Feb – 12 Feb 2021)All three US major averages finished the week in the green, with each posting its best week since November 2020 as fears of the short-squeeze in a handful of stocks leading to broader market contagion subsided. Investors will be focusing on earnings and the prospects for a hefty new coronavirus relief package in the week ahead. Markets will also be watching the latest consumer price inflation numbers on Wednesday amid expectations for an uptick as the economic backdrop improves and the vaccine roll-out gains momentum. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) kicks off the month of Feburary with a weekly gain of +5.03%, the best week of the index since November 2020. This rally not only fully recovered the correction from the initial week, but it also established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,895 level. Additionally, $SPX is now back above its 20DMA, along with the consolidated Trend Channel highlighted last week. At the current junction, the week’s rally of $SPX have exhibited a Bearish Divergence pattern; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870. 1. Earnings Better-than-expected corporate results so far in the fourth quarter have driven up analysts’ expectations, and S&P 500 ($SPX) companies are on track to post earnings growth for the period instead of a decline as initially expected. Upcoming U.S. reports in the week ahead include Cisco Systems ($CSCO), Twitter ($TWTR), General Motors ($GM), Pepsi ($PEP), Coca-Cola ($KO), AstraZeneca ($AZN) and Walt Disney ($DIS). Upbeat earnings along with stimulus talks and progress on the vaccine rollout boosted equities last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recording their largest weekly percentage gains since the U.S. elections in early November. Upbeat fourth-quarter results would bolster expectations for a strong rebound in earnings in 2021 and help to ease investor worries that valuations are overstretched. 2. Stimulus U.S. President Joe Biden’s push for his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package gained momentum on Friday after the U.S. Senate narrowly approved a budget blueprint allowing Democrats to push the legislation through Congress in coming weeks with or without Republican support. Republicans have proposed a $600 billion aid package, less than a third the size of the Democratic plan. Congressional committees are set to start drawing up legislation this week and Speaker Nancy Pelosi has predicted the final legislation could pass Congress before March 15, when special unemployment benefits that were added during the pandemic expire. Data on Friday showing a smaller-than-expected rebound in the U.S. labor market in January underscored the need for more stimulus to bolster the economy. 3. Inflation data Market watchers will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s CPI data amid growing expectations that an uptick in inflation could be larger and longer lasting than the Federal Reserve is currently anticipating. U.S. Treasury investors are betting on rising inflation as the U.S. economy returns to more normal levels in the second half of this year, after contracting at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020. The prospect of a new coronavirus relief package is adding to inflation expectations. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak about the labor market on Wednesday at a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of New York. Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims will also be in focus.
UShort
by jfsrevg
1