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The FED foresees "mild recession" later this year Multiple interesting developments took place in the U.S. market yesterday. First, CPI and inflation rate came in better than expected (although the core inflation accelerated by 0.1% year over year), sparking a short-lived bounce in U.S. indices, followed by relative stabilization in the market ahead of the FOMC minutes. Then, once the report came in, the market started to decline amid a sudden change in the tone of the FED officials, which now foresee a “mild recession” later this year. This comes to us as no surprise since, already last fall, we noted that the FED projections were implicitly pointing to the recession in 2023 and 2024. However, this shift from an implicit tone to an explicit one is a major development that should not be overlooked, especially as the FED continues to indicate higher interest rates from the current levels. While hiking interest rates is very effective at fighting inflation, which will continue to decline toward the end of 2023, it is hardly bullish for the equity market. Due to that, we maintain a bearish stance on the U.S. market and the price target for SPX at HKEX:3 400. We will pay a lot of attention to banking earnings (starting tomorrow with Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Wells Fargo and continuing with other major and regional banks in the following weeks). In general, we do not expect the current earnings season for stocks to be any better than the previous one. To confirm our bearish thesis, we will seek more downgrades in the outlook and decline in corporate profits. Furthermore, we will monitor the labor market, bank deposits, loan delinquencies, consumer spending, and rate of consumer savings (among other important metrics). Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the 1-minute chart of SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the time when inflation and CPI data were released. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the 1-minute chart of SPX and the subsequent price action following the release of FOMC minutes. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Illustration 1.03 The illustration above portrays the daily chart of SPX and fan lines acting as resistance and support levels. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
31
NZDCAD Long-Short or Long and Short?On NZDCAD, we have the price located in the 0.8375 area. According to my view, there are three possible scenarios, two bullish and one bearish. The first aims at a break of the supply zone in the 0.84200 area. The second scenario aims to wait for a retracement of the price in the 0.82900 area, where there is a very effective demand zone that has generated further demand within it, which will be our entry point in case the market goes down. Finally, the last scenario expects the price to bounce off the supply zone before falling to the demand zone. Let me know what you think. Good trading to everyone, bye.
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Relationship of the Fed interest rate + SP 500 index Logarithm. The time frame on both charts is 1 month. It is worth considering as an indicator of large market cycles in general. I will not describe it, because I have already said a lot about it before. There is a correlation, which is logical, but not always. There are also reasons for this, which I have voiced before. Expensive and cheap money - the regulation of the growth and decline of the U.S. economy (the whole world). The Fed Funds rate , is the target interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the basis of which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other for short periods (usually overnight). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy setting body of the Federal Reserve, meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate can affect short-term rates on consumer loans and credit cards, as well as the stock market. By law, banks must maintain a reserve equal to a certain percentage of their deposits in a Federal Reserve Bank account. The amount of money a bank must keep in its account at the Fed is known as the reserve requirement and is based on a percentage of the bank's total deposits. The rate target set by the Federal Reserve is achieved through open market operations. Since the Fed cannot set the rate's exact value through such operations, the actual value may fluctuate near the target rate. The Fed Funds rate is one of the most important interest rates in the U.S. economy because it affects monetary and financial conditions, which in turn affect critical aspects of the overall economy, including employment, economic growth and inflation. SP 500 Index . S&P 500 (SPX) is a stock index whose basket includes 503 stocks of the 500 selected publicly traded companies with the largest capitalization on U.S. stock exchanges. The list belongs to and is compiled by Standard & Poor's. The index is published since March 4, 1957. Major trend (long term) SP500 index. The entire trend. 100th Anniversary Plot of the index during the "Great Depression." SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
SP:SPX
by SpartaBTC
19
The march to an inevitable North American world hegemony is ...... picking up pace. - A lot, lately! TLTR The war in the Ukraine was essentially over the day it began. Now, with western interests notably starting to fade, it will start to make it's way to the back pages of daily reportage. Why was this even an issue of US interests, to begin with? ... Washington had this far fetched dream - although, not entirely without historical bases - to create a Polish-Ukrainian-Lithuanian superstate , entirely funded on US interests, unifying over 80 million people, populating 5 million square kilometers, right up against the Russian Federation and China's western sphere of interests. Nice try! The real problem with this wishful thinking is multi-fold. While those above mentioned peoples do have a lot of similarities in culture, language and historically undesirable (for them) outcomes, the facts remain the same; - Ukrainians do not play well with others! Notably one of the most chauvinist cultures, their mistreatment of minorities is (or should be!) rapidly becoming legendary, the largest of which are the Poles; - "My enemy's (i.e. Russia) enemy is my friend." - As incredibly profound as that may sound, it also makes for extremely unstable, impossible to maintain alliances; - The Organization of Turkic States (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Turkey) do have a lot to say about this and, not surprisingly, they do not approve - to say the least; - Then there is Turkey (a regional super power) which, not in the least, together with China, had managed nothing less than to broker a piece between Iran and Saudi Arabia; In summary, a now defacto Russian-Chinese-Iranian-Turkish coalition is enough to make even the United States to stop and think twice what it's wisest next step may be, in the region. OK, so no big deal. The US blew ~7% of it's annual defense budget on this still-born idea but, since it can, will likely call it a day , in the very near future. The EU , which is essentially nothing more than a German franchise, is looking at it's End of Days . The German industrial base managed to go 0-3, much like on the two previous occasions when they fielded their dream team , an outcome that is all but inevitable. Any doubt?! ... Just this week Volkswagen and BASF both announced that they are "considering to explore their North American options with regard to future investments". That is the German Industrial Base ! - Apparently looking to seek asylum in the US. German infrastructure and industry, which took over 30 years to build, only took two(2) short years to gut and to irreversibly break apart. No shock, there. Germans always had to be the best at whatever was the vogue of the day and clearly, self-mutilation and ultimately, economic suicide, not being an exception. (I spent a lot of time in Germany and to get a Wifi signal - cellular or otherwise -, the quality and frequency is right up there with Lebanon's. German pensioners blow their retirements on turtle neck sweaters because state sanctioned energy cut-backs simply turn off their central heating in the middle of January. The fastest growing manufacturing sector, as of right now, is wood-burning stoves! - The effect of which on the lumber industry is interesting, in itself but that's a whole other conversation.) Germany's largest trading partner is China! (40% of exports.) Chine is notably not found of the present, vigorous German ra-ra which would have the average mainstream news consumer believe that Kiev has won the war last christmas and that right now, Polish troops are storming the walls of the Kremlin, under German leadership. E.g. China, ultimately, does have an awful lot of pull in the case of German foreign policy and, lately, Beijing's patience appears to be wearing thin. Long story short; "It's been nice signing with you Coco, but it's over!" - Bet on it! China is dying! (Present tense.) As stated previously, the inescapable reality of a demographic collapse - it's first, truly major wave - is descending on China at the time of this writing. A total of 1/2 (50%) of China's population will not celebrate New Years Eve, 2035! - Leaving about 800 Million de-industrialized, de-urbanized, subsistence farmers in it's wake, by the middle of the next decade. As rapid extinctions go, this one is for the books. (As a personal reflection perhaps of mild interest, I have spent some time in the Mekong Delta, planting rice - just to see what it's all about. Afterwards I can safely state that there is no more expensive crop or an other, more soul-sucking, endlessly laborious occupation than rice farming! As for automation? ... What automation?! - It will never happen! To grow rice is a 24/7, all out battle with Nature, which uses up every living thing - including people and the environment - in a merciless fashion. I, personally, would much rather go back to pyramid building, as one of the slaves. My point being; Can anyone imagine china without rice? - ) In short, if there ever was a sure thing , this is it! (Feel free to do the rest of the math - i.e. a world without China.) Now, having argued why "everyone dies, except for the USA" , that, of course, is not the same as all of them will walk off into the sunset with a whimper . (Although, under the circumstances, even that isn't very far fetched.) Who will be able to muster at least a last, dying spasm, is yet to be seen but if it happens it will be violent! Be prepared! "Crises take much longer to unfold and run much deeper than anyone would expect." All that is outlined above is already happening (no more "unfolding" ) and perhaps with traders' typically myopic view, a lot that is about to hit the fan could seem "unexpected", at that moment. Don't be caught off guard! Trade it with the lay-of-the-land in mind and make the most of what promises to be a once in many-generation opportunity. EUR/USD Short Bias (from here on out, essentially for ever ); USD/CNH Long Bias (from here on out, essentially for ever ); US Equities & Treasuries over any off-shore, Bias p.s. The US of A still maintains marginally beneficial demographics, with no near term dangers on the horizon. On the top of that, it also boast one of the few optimally dispersed populations - from a systemic point of view. E.g. "Globalization", in reality, is just a less pointed pseudonym for US world hegemony.
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
8
S&P 500- Still targeting 4300+Hello traders! Many times in previous post we talked about a primary wave (B) to the upside to conclude above 4300 for the S&P. We believe that we are currently going for wave 5 of C, as also the inverse head and shoulder suggests. clearer picture on Nasdaq, where W pattern and descending broadenign wedge are targeting at least 13600 for this upside correction (end of double zig zag). There we will re consider the possibility of a short, tracking the possible Wolfe Wave in the making. For now, we opened a small long at the recent dip at 12909.1. Will update below! Bests! GMR
U
by GMR-Capital
1
4.25$ SupportDollar once again hit 4.25$ level which was resistance from 2016 to february 2022 when price went above and this way created support which was tested in may/june 2022, january/february 2023 and right now. It seems solid so I would expect 5$ level retest in the near future and that way creating double bottom on current support. But if price will go below 4.25 and the volumen will be significant it can fall down. On 12th April US CPI level is going to be published and on 14th April PL CPI. Having up-to-date information, I do not plan to open a position earlier than next week.
by ven0x0
BTC UPDATE APRIL 5 2023Bitcoin Update: Resistance at $29,000 and a Potential Correction to $24,500 As of April 5th, 2023, Bitcoin is trading at around $28,000 USD, and the price has been trying to break out of the $29,000 area for the past two weeks. However, there seems to be a lot of resistance there, pushing the price down to the support levels at $28,000 and $27,600. On the other hand, an Elliot Wave structure has formed, with five waves up, and the current trading is at the fifth wave. These wave counts started from the formed bottom a few months back. Additionally, at the bottom area of $15,000, a falling wedge structure has been spotted. According to the Fibonacci retracement tool, this falling wedge targets 1.618 fib levels, which is the golden ratio between $29,000 and $30,800 areas. There are two possibilities at this point. The first is that Bitcoin will break out of the $29,200 areas and push the price up to $30,800 and possibly even higher. The second possibility is that a correction will start from the current levels towards the $25K-$24.5K areas. Once we reach there, an update will be provided. With 12 years of experience in trading and stock markets, the feeling is that Bitcoin has not yet finished the correction from the top that was made at the $69,000 areas. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on the price action and be prepared for any potential volatility. Good luck.
by Htback
2
Why I knew what I knew.A fall of 200 points and then gain back of 150 points is what we all expect at situational understanding of todays graph. But I had been researching over past 3 months the WAVES that rule over indices, I completely eradicated all of the Fundamental Reasons for example news crashes or something like Banking Crisis as the reasons for any downtrend and uptrend for once, even though they are the complete reasons. However there exists a Natural Pattern in Technical Analysis, it is the study of behaviours of Participants in a Financial Market, and Indices are the best representation of that behaviour. So coincidently the time period I studied might have elapsed over same conclusive results of wave analysis but I was dead sure in such a bullish momentum that was taking indices over the edges of Buy Signals and every one opinionated buy calls, yet my research was telling me to short NIFTY50 options. Dow Jones Industrial Average rules the exact parameters of Nifty50 the Indian Index as it gauges it to gap up if Dow futures are up or down if they are down. So the methodology to study waves that I implemented is a simple task of figuring out the weightage stocks that are moving the indices, calculate their Fibonacci sequence, sort their demand and supplies and being an analyst at beginners level I also studied the RRG graphs, the relative strengths, the PMOs, the Sectoral Rotation and concluded that April is for the first fifteen days fully bearish.
TVC:DJIShort
by INDEXKING0
2
SP 500 where next ?Good day everyone. well as you see in charts if USA and other big players haven't found any way out for current political and financial issue, we will see a capitulation on Stock Markets specially in USA .. so be careful. so next target will be at 2000 pts area which will be marked technically in Elliot Wave Structure WAVE C !!! More Geopolitical and Financial information would help you to understand current world financial tension. inflation rate: The inflation rate in the United States has been on the rise in recent months, reaching a 40-year high in November 2021. The consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of goods and services, increased by 6.2% year-over-year, the highest rate since 1982. This is largely due to supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and high demand for goods and services. Effects on the S&P 500 Charts: Inflation has a significant impact on the stock market, including the S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 index is composed of 500 large-cap stocks, and its performance is often seen as a reflection of the overall health of the US economy. As inflation rises, it can lead to higher interest rates, which can negatively impact the stock market. One way inflation affects the S&P 500 is through its effect on corporate earnings. Inflation can increase the cost of raw materials, labor, and other expenses for companies, which can ultimately lead to lower profits. This, in turn, can lead to a decline in stock prices and a drop in the S&P 500 index. Moreover, inflation can also affect investor sentiment and market volatility. As inflation rises, investors may become more cautious and less willing to take risks. This can lead to increased volatility in the stock market, with larger price swings in both directions. Conclusion: In conclusion, inflation is a key economic indicator that can have significant effects on the S&P 500 index and the overall US economy. As inflation continues to rise, it is important for investors to pay attention to its effects on corporate earnings and investor sentiment. Understanding these dynamics can help investors make informed decisions and better navigate the current market environment. it is important to note that predicting the future movements of the stock market can be challenging, as it is influenced by a wide range of factors. However, it is clear that the current inflation and other political and economic tensions are likely to continue to have an impact on the S&P 500 index in the coming months. It is important for investors to stay informed, exercise caution, and consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate risk.
SP:SPX
by Htback
1
XRP General MovesRecent Price Movements and Potential Future Outlook XRP, also known as Ripple, has been in the news recently due to some positive developments, which have led to a price increase. However, the price of XRP has been volatile and has experienced significant fluctuations in the past few weeks. In this article, we will analyze the recent price movements of XRP and discuss its potential future outlook. Price Movements On March 31, 2023, the price of XRP reached a high of 0.588 USD, which was the highest it had been in several months. However, the price soon began to decline, and it currently sits around the 0.5 USD mark. This price decline can be attributed to several factors, including the overall market conditions, as well as concerns about the potential impact of Bitcoin's price movements. Support Levels Despite the recent price decline, there are some good support levels for XRP. The 0.5 USD mark is a significant support level, and it is possible that the price may bounce back from this level. Additionally, the 0.432 USD mark, which is where the rally started, could potentially be retested in the next few days. If this occurs, it may present an opportunity to buy XRP at a lower price. Future Outlook The future outlook for XRP is uncertain, and much will depend on the overall market conditions and the movements of other major cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's price continues to decline, it is likely that XRP will also experience a price decline. However, if the market stabilizes and Bitcoin's price begins to increase again, XRP may also experience a price increase. Conclusion In conclusion, XRP has experienced significant price movements in the past few weeks, and its future outlook is uncertain. While there are some good support levels for XRP, it is important to be cautious when trading in these volatile market conditions. It may be worth waiting for further confirmation before buying XRP, especially if there are concerns about the potential impact of Bitcoin's price movements.
by Htback
USD vs CNY US Dollar vs Chinese Yuan Q1 Currency War Thoughts!The Background & Info: At the end of Q1 we have seen the usual crazy headline packed news cycle that we all have become accustomed to since 2020. Strange news, wars, meme realities and conspiracy vindication are now the new normal. You might have missed it in the news cycle, due to all the chaos, but the Chinese Yuan ( CNY ) has made some HUGE waves throughout the world by announcing the settlement of Saudi Arabia's purchase of gas from Russia. It appears that China is taking a page out of the USA playbook by being seen on the international stage trying to broker peace in a proxy war it appears to be funding in a foreign land, aggressively disrespecting nations borders with its airspace violations and spy equipment and, if all that was not enough of a copy cat move, they now have moved forward with courting Saudi Arabi into its BLOC countries that have agreed to swap their trade settlements from the USD to the CNY . It appears Long gone are the days of China shouting threats from the confines of the Forbidden City ( not Forbidden Garden ) walls. They now seem to be taking center world stage and with the Ukraine war and the Saudi Arabia agreement. This will allow them to continue their campaign of world influence peddling and open the doors of Europe to them as a proxy negotiator for Russian Oil & Gas as well as alternative trade settlement base, military assistance, and other one off trade alliances. Truly a wolf in sheep's clothing is now knocking on the doors of Eastern Europe. Europe is one of the few areas of the globe that China currently does not have a good foot in the door. In Africa and the Middle East they own the majority of rare earth mineral rights & mines, In Asia and America they control the tech and manufacturing sectors. Now they are taking on Global Policing and Influence that will lead them into Europe in 2024. Is this the END of the US Dollar being the currency of the world's economy? How is the Chinese Yuan stacking up against the US Dollar today? Well.... What does the Chart Say: My charts are telling me that historically the USD is a powerhouse and has had MANY moments of retracement while maintaining a VERY bullish uptrend. Support is EVERYWHERE for the USD and the world economy understands better than we the citizens do, that USA policy and leadership change every 4-8 years. The recent gains of the Chinese CNY BLOC should have crippled the USD but instead it merely dipped it back to the mid range of its upward bullish trading channel. SUMMARY: I would refuse to bet against the USD and I don't see any significant trading opportunities arising from this over the short term. However, if the Chinese continue to play the world police and peace broker on the world stage then other countries and other settlements will strengthen the BLOC alliance and that WILL have a noticeable effect on how the USDCNY trades. I would suspect that IF more significant trade partners join the BLOC and China continues its mature world stage presence, that the USDCNY would end up looking to trade between 5.5-6.25 this time in 2024. But if the USA gets back to world leadership, makes a strong presence felt on the world stage, then I would look for USDCNY to continue is current trading channel and its bullish uptrend. THIS is just me documenting my own thoughts on the matters at hand. Do your own Research.
Long
by TheStockMarketSniper
GOLD AND WORLD TENSIONS GOOD DAY FELLAS Gold, represented as XAU USD, is currently trading at 1980 USD. While many market participants expect gold to break its previous high of 2080 USD, there are diverging opinions on the future price direction of gold. In this analysis, we will explore the fundamental and technical factors that could influence the price of gold in the short and long term. Fundamentally, gold is seen as a safe haven asset, and its price is often influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. The US dollar is also an important factor in the price of gold, as they are inversely correlated. As the dollar weakens, gold becomes relatively cheaper for holders of other currencies, and demand for gold tends to increase. Conversely, when the dollar strengthens, the demand for gold weakens. Currently, tensions around the world are high, and there is economic uncertainty in various regions. The US dollar is also under pressure due to the increasing national debt and the ongoing tensions. These factors suggest that demand for gold could increase in the short term. However, I believe that the US will not allow markets to turn against the dollar, which could impact the price of gold. From a technical perspective, i believe that gold is currently undergoing a correction on the weekly time frame. This correction is targeting the downward support zone, which intersects with the golden ratio of Fibonacci at 1370-1500 USD dollars. This zone is seen as an attractive level to buy gold. Fibonacci ratios are often used by technical analysts to identify potential levels of support and resistance in financial markets. In summary, the current price of gold is 1980 USD, and there are diverging opinions on its future price direction. While geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty could support the price of gold in the short term, the US dollar and government intervention in markets could limit its upside potential. From a technical perspective, gold is currently undergoing a correction, and a potential buying opportunity is seen at the support zone of 1370-1500 USD dollars A LIKE ON THIS POST WOULD HELP ME A LOT IF YOU PLEASE ,,
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Htback
3