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S&P500 - Tracking the upsideHello traders! In the previous post we explained our two different scenarios. However, since price has taken out 4136 and the main descending trendline, we are now considering only the bullish scenario and thus we believe to be in a primary wave (B) to the upside targeting 4300+. This primary (B) is unfolding as a double three, and with last ABC labeled on the main chart. Price took the most bullish possibility, that we were not expecting, so our previous short trade was stopped out, but thanks to our risk management rules the loss was reduced and we are still positive in the month of February. Bigger picture We will just track and monitor the price action spotting possible setups. Happy trading!
U
by GMR-Capital
5
S&P500 - Decision timeHello traders! As stated in our previous post, linked in the description, we are following two main scenarios on S&P500. According to the bullish scenario, the 5 waves labeled in the chart should form a leading diagonal for wave i of C in a primary wave (B) to the upside targeting 4300+. In this case we should now retrace in wave ii of C. According to the bearish scenario, that movement from december's low would be a triple three correction in wave 2/B and thus we may reverse in a wave 3/C aiming to lower targets (3640 big wolfe wave target) or possibly lower lows. See the chart below We managed to catch a short entry at @4076.1, and we are going to hold it (stop loss on entry) following this plan: -if prices arrives to the 3900-3940 area, which is a target in both scenarios (and wolfe's wave target), we will close at least half of the position. At that point we will evaluate whether the decline is impulsive (motive wave) or corrective( three waves). In the former case, once it extends lower and if actvivates the red ascending broadening wedge creating a 5-waves pattern, we will search for adding a short at the retracement. In the latter case, we will evaluate bullish setups around the 3900 area for the green arrow path in the main chart, possibly keeping a piece of the initial short to be hedged for both scenarios. - If prices spikes up and kicks us out at entry, we will reevaluate a short position around the 4125-4135 area, for a completion higher of the above mentioned leading diagonal, ad apply the same plan to the new short. As we e xplained before we believe that fundamental news and events unfold simultaneously with the price action, and all the information available is encoded in chart patterns. Nonetheless, it is clear that the FOMC will bring high volatility, so it is important to reduce risk and have a clear plan prepared. Will update below, happy trading ;)
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by GMR-Capital
6
S&P500 - Structure seems completedHello traders! As we can see from the chart, price completed five waves to the upside for what can be a leading diagonal for wave C of (B) to the upside, or a triple three in wave 2/B of (C) to lower lows (check the post below). We interpret the structure in this way since every wave up in this 5-wave structure was a three-wave, price overxtended creating divergences on smart money indicator and RSI. In the chart above the label follows the bullish count (first one). But both a leading diagonal both the bearish count will give us a relevant move to the downside. This is the bearish count with the bearish patterns (red ascending broadening wedge and black wolfe wave). We are short from @4055.2 with stop loss at @4084.5 Our first target that will cover both scenarios is 3920. We will evalaute then possible lower targets in the bearish case 3720 and 3500.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by GMR-Capital
2
THE EASIEST ARBITRAGE EVER IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF OUR EYES? LONG US, SHORT EU Hello, these two charts seem to show an identical background situation for the two economies (US and German), however, the economy in US and EU is very different (among other explanations, TFP - total factor productivity is, and always has been positive in the US, while it is negative and, most importantly, decreasing since many years in Europe; US has never lowered rates below 0, while Europe did, breaking the Marxist M-G-M model, which means Money-Goods-Money1 cycle, and transforming it into a mere M to M1 model, money to money1, where M1 >M, skipping the "Goods" part of the cycle, basically creating a system where Money that creates other money out of thin air). The markets (especially the European ones) are discounting the fact that there will be no recession based on last data, and that we will have a soft landing after all in US. I believe this will not be the case but it is not important now. The important thing is that, European investors are believing that the same will happen in EU, where, however, the increase of interest rates is far from being done, and inflation has not peaked yet! Surprisingly, European investors are continuing to consider the two economies as identical, simply because in the last 40 years they moved together. However, they forget the 10-15 years of QE and the fact that the world after it will not simply continue to be the same as before, as we simply can erase these 15 years of history and put in conjunction the two extremities. They are pricing the two markets as it they were at the beginning of capitalism, while we are probably at the end of it, or better at a new phase of it. A phase in which US adapted to the MDM model by increasing the productive cycle (they have companies like Tesla, Amazon, Google) while in Europe we persevered in the aberration of the M-> M1. LONG US (Dow jones), SHORT EU (Dax) IThis is why, n my opinion, what we have in front of us is a win-win situation. If the markets will continue, in my opinion wrongly, to consider these two markets almost perfectly correlated, while they are going up even if at least one of the two will have a recession ahead, we will be covered in any case. case 1 - recession in USA, recession in EU the recession will hit stronger in Europe-> The position will lose on long US less than what it would gain from the short on EU (DAX) case 2 - no recession in USA, recession in EU double gain (from the on long US and from the short on EU) case 3 - no recession in USA, no recession in EU US economy will perform better then EU : the long position on US will gain more than what it would LOSE from the short on EU It is worth noting that both indices are surprisingly at 8% from their respective peaks of 2021 but the strength of the trend (red line on the second indicator - DMI) is very low. Of course, the strategy will need to be adjusted with the sizes so that every side has the same notional value in USD - What do you think?
DJ:DJI
by edutradinguru
S&P 500 - Medium term upside or lower lows?In our previous post we outlined how we distinguish tow different scenarios. Either we are in a ABC to the upside targeting 4300 and possibly beyond (as labeled in the main chart, green arrow) or we are in wave 3 of C targeting lower lows and the completion of the bearish wolfe wave pattern. We stated how we believe the first scenario to be more likely, but the broadening patterns, the fact that priced failed to take out 4136, bearish divergence on rsi and the wolfe wave that still has a lower target suggests that the bearish scenario is still a possibility. This may unfold as below: In each case, a movement to the downside is now expected. We evaluate the probability of the two scenarios once more price action unfolds. Breaking the major trendline and retesting or fake out? Stay tuned. We are short from @4050 stop loss 4065.5 risk 0.6% of equity
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by GMR-Capital
1
USDCNH to 6.66? 😈Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free. After a long run up... the USDCNH probably found the top for a while. Price formed Head and Shoulders 🤷and broke the Uptrendline and then also the Neckline @ 7.01, backtested it and got rejected. Also there is bear flag in play with target 6.686, we have just broken out of it's consolidation phase: So in my eyes a downtrend has been established and I think there is chance for run to 6.66 . STOPLOSS (SL) : Right Shoulder @ 7.26 TARGET (TP) : H&S target projection @ 6.66 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Short
by bizmark
4
S&P 500- Full analysis on US indexesHello traders! We are now going for a full breakdown on the situation on the two main us indexes: sp500 and nasdaq100. As per our previous sequence on post, we believe there are two possible scenarios in place. First scenario: The index is still finishing cycle correction and is in wave 3 of C pointing to new lows. This was our main scenario and will be definitely invalidated if sp500 breaks it previous high at 4136. This scenario would be still in place in the following form: However, we believe that this scenario lost quite a bit of odds and is now the least likely, given bullish smart money indicator, breakout and retest of main descending trendline sustained by volumes (look at the weekly and daily POCs) and the structure of the price action. It' s impossible to count 5 wave down from yesterday's top, the movement seems indeed corrective, while it is possible to label 5 waves to the upside on lower (hourly) time frames. Second scenario: We believe indeed that the previous second scenario has now become the most probable: it believes that we are in a correction to the upside for a primary wave (B), as labeled in the main chart of this post. The main targets for this (B) wave (ABC to the upside) are in the 4300 area, but this can extend much higher, and even transform into an impulse (or nasdaq can do a blow off top in a macro irregular flat). On the lower tf's we can see as priced retraced in the golden zone and the micro count suggest we should be in wave iii of c of C of (B). To validate this micro count, price should take off recent high at 4040. Bullish count will be definitely validated above 4136. We plan to search for long setup if we found some bullish patterns, and to start to research possible long setups on us stocks. We will publish more analysis and setup as the bull scenario gains in probability by taking out previously mentioned levels. If you have any questions or ideas, please comment. We will be glad ;)
CAPITALCOM:US500
by GMR-Capital
3
S&P500 - Pt.6 Still looking for more downsideGood morning traders! We previously explained how in both our two main scenarios we believe S&P500 will complete the bearish wolfe wave in 3600-3650 area. We are leaning towards the scenario for which we should be in wave 3 of (C) and thus we should be directed towards a lower low. Our short positions are still in place, average entry @3990.2 and stop loss @4016 for 0.3% risk. We are also short through a put option that costed us 0.1% of equity. We will update below!
UShort
by GMR-Capital
3
Market news n°38Hey! It has been a really long time since I posted something like this, over a year. Now a lot is happening or about to happen so here we go! This is mostly me bashing the us dollar, brace yourselves. > Gold is angry with 3 white soldiers after testing long term support *********************** Gold bounced on its long term moving averages and a convenient trendline, there are 3 white soldiers on the monthly chart. As US dollar loses some of its exagerated priviledge - I will talk about that a lot in this post - gold sends a clear message: "I am still here". Countries the most interested in gold are China and Russia which both do an enormous amount of international trade and have surplus. In the list of countries by surplus China is third with 141 billion (this is from 2019) and Russia nb 6 with 65 billion. The last of 200+ countries is of course the USA at -500 billion dollars a year. Canada, the UK are also down there in the list of suckers, France is there too. Germany is number 1, they are the big winners far above China. If the ponzi scheme (you know what I am talking about) takes a serious hit, people with money are not going to look into complicated mixes of currencies or complex financial products, and even less in "revolutions" such as Bitcoin (people with money = boomers). By default it will be gold. And once gold makes a new high it can feed on itself and go higher until it goes higher (hope turns to thrill etc) eventually ending up a bubble with all the speculative suckers pushing it much higher. This is going to be fun. One day I'll be a bear on gold after being a bull for years. But I will never become a bull on Bitcoin (except very short term, maybe). > FT: "Great power conflict puts the dollar’s privilege under threat" *********************** The Financial Times published a piece about what I would like to call WW3 leading to further reducing the overwhelming priviledge of the USD. www.ft.com Several major countries are opposing the USA both militarily and financially, Russia and China, and even France has disagreed (with their masters) for the first time in a really long time (I won't lie I do not remember he details), and Germany refuses to send main battle tanks if the USA won't. Poland got mad and wants to buy from South Korea and was it Turkey? Russia is getting weapons from Afghanistan and Iran. Maybe US-defying France starts selling warships to Russia again? Or the subs Australia cancelled... (France is the third largest weapons exporter in the world). Russia reserves and trade surplus hit records (sanctions seem useful), Saudi Arabia recently declared it was accepting other currencies than the USD, Turkey seems to have slightly distanced itself from NATO, the balkans are getting all excited, big things happening all over the world. A few months ago Scholz and Macron, Germany chancellor and France president, threatened trade retaliation against Biden. Little by little, the world is getting less unipolar. > Brazil and Argentina will announce they are making a new currency *********************** My schizo sources (they are reliable) let me know there is a conspiracy by Argentina and Brazil to create a new currency to decrease their dependency on the US dollar and they will announce it soon, hey wait don't leave! Here is a trusted source: www.ft.com Just another step towards a world less centered around the USA following Russia and China accepting all sorts of currencies to settle trades, I think they are accepting rupees and UAE Dirhams. The Brazilian Real is flatlining now, I wonder if the market is waiting for these news? I do not think there is much to consider about this for now, but let's see what happens this week when the announcement gets made. Trust in the USD is diminishing... This will come a few days after they hit the debt ceiling again. Hey, but this time it's the last for real! Says a fool. > US bank regulator warns some US banks are "too big to manage" *********************** The head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency warned that some banks are “too big to manage”. Source: www.occ.treas.gov I personally think they are a huge risk, maybe as big or even bigger than 15 years ago, and clearly they have too much power, both internally and internationally. Mega banks and mega funds have too much control of the stock market making it a complete pyramid scheme meant to make them richer and honest workers poorer, there is nothing more to it now. The inequality is getting worse than in 1929. People under 40 have absolutely no future, no way of buying a home, no way of paying the bills, can't have children. Left-wingers (not centrists, actual leftists) and right-wingers are divided and hate each other, for now... The USA is accumulating problems making the USD a bit less safe every day. > US: Inflation came from high profits, far-left terrorism skyrocketing *********************** Western 15 to 55 year old population continues to get walked over by richer and richer boomers, and we even learned that corporate profits are what made inflation so bad. Rich, greedy wealthy overweight men shamelessly filling their fat purses while life gets harder and harder for the rest. I do not think they recognize the threat because they are really "taking liberties". Here is an article by forbes about these record profits made on our backs: www.forbes.com This is yet another thing contributing to anger, and this anger is starting to seriously lead to deaths, as left-wing extremists are getting violent, and harder for authorities to ignore. The mainstream media is not reporting this, or barely, but there are people making autonomous zones and shooting and killing cops. To find out about these stories you have to skip the media and go to forums and official sites I guess such as this: gbi.georgia.gov > Elon Musk manipulation: He might be planning on running for president *********************** As I explained in the past, Elon Musk emotionally manipulated (mostly) left-wingers to make a lot of money, with tactics such as: 1- Visualisation and greed: "Imagine when Telsa will possess the entire world's car market and be worth trillions, the same thing get rich quick scammers use "imagine yourself with millions of dollars sitting on a beach trading from your laptop" to make people feel good about throwing money at them, 2- Social Virtue Signaling: Primitive people get some feel-good chemical reaction going on in their limbic system when they feel they are able to show off and show everyone they are good boys, such as when they buy "clean" vehicles, 3- Belongingness and feeling accomplished: He told his workers that if they worked for him "You are a part of something great, you are playing a part of history" and "this will definitely work out". To date, the only person for who "this has worked out" is Elon Musk. And now he is telling (mostly) right-wingers what they want to hear, because he would love to announce he is running for president. He started acting as their savior with twitter, he is making single line simple to understand common sense claims to make them "feel understood". They will be left disappointed just like Tesla bagholders. Where Elon walks, the grass does not grow again.
TVC:GOLD
by MrRenev
9
USA vs Japan- Everything is in chart. - Again an easy short, same as i predicted UK Bounce few weeks ago. - This is not a scalp but a Medium/Long term trade. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trading Parts : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short Zone : Now 149-150 ish TP1 : 127-126 ish TP2 : 116-117 ish SL : 165 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - You climb to reach the summit, but once there, you discover that all roads lead down. Happy Tr4Ding !
Short
by thecryer
4
A thought for all bullish callsSPX is up 4.5% since the start of 2023 and 14.5% since its lows in October 2022. As a result, we are noticing an increase in calls for recovery and the beginning of a bull market. However, we are skeptical about these calls. With 2022 full-year results from U.S. banks, we now know their net profit decreased dramatically from the previous year; in the case of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, we saw this trend also in net revenue. Now, we expect companies in other sectors to follow suit and show corporate underperformance in 2022 (versus 2021). We expect that to confirm our thesis about the economy progressing deeper into recession; due to that, we have strong doubts about the sustainability of the current rally. Accordingly, our price target for 2023 stays at $3400. Change in net income for particular U.S. banks - 2022 vs. 2021. Bank of America = -14% YoY JP Morgan Chase = -22% YoY Morgan Stanley = -26% YoY Citigroup = -32% YoY Wells Fargo = -38% YoY Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and sloping resistance. Currently, SPX trades slightly below the resistance. The breakout above the resistance will be bullish in the short term. We would look for a retest of the $4100 level in such a case. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of SPX and alternative resistance levels. A breakout above Resistance 1 will further bolster a bullish case for the index. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
19
How did the U.S. biggest bank perform in 2022?During the summer of 2022, we laid out a thesis about the stock market progressing in the second stage of the bear market. We said that we would look for signs of corporate underperformance and downgrades in forward guidance within earnings statements for 3Q22 and 4Q22. In the 3Q22 earnings season, many companies began downgrading future outlooks and warning investors of a tough time ahead. For some sectors, inventories rose, and revenue streams showed a decline compared to the previous year's period. With the start of the new earning season, we will pay close attention to the new data, which may or may not confirm our thesis about the market diving deeper into a recession. Interestingly, the last Friday, multiple big banks on wall street announced their earnings statements. These names included JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Today, we will briefly examine the biggest U.S. bank - JP Morgan Chase & Co. This bank has $3.66 trillion in assets and has not posted a yearly loss for more than 15 years. Its earnings report is divided into five segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate and Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, Asset and Wealth Management, and Corporate. The bank’s Consumer and Community Banking segment showed gradual growth in net income and net revenue quarter after quarter in 2022. Furthermore, it maintained relatively stable noninterest expenses throughout the year. However, despite that, it posted a 29% less net income in 2022 versus 2021. In 4Q22, the Corporate and Investment Bank experienced a drop of 27% YoY (year over year) in net income. Additionally, in that same period, this division saw a decline in revenue by 9% YoY, and an increase in non-interest expenses by 10%. As for the full-year 2022, the Corporate and Investment Bank brought in 29% less net income versus 2021. Meanwhile, the Commercial Bank brought $1.4 billion in net income for the company in 4Q22, showing an increase of 15% versus 4Q21. Furthermore, it also enjoyed a rise in revenue by 30% versus 4Q21. Despite that, these two segments underperformed when compared to 2021. For the full-year 2022, the net income of this division dropped 20% versus 2021. The Asset and Wealth segment showed steady growth in net income quarter after quarter in 2022. However, it also suffered a drop of 8% in net income for the entire year 2022 versus 2021. The Corporate segment posted a net loss in the first three quarters of 2022 and a net gain in 4Q22. But for 2022, it is the only sector that posted a loss while still showing significant improvement from the last year. For the full-year 2022, JP Morgan Chase & Co. gained $37.7 billion in net income, which is down 22% versus 2021. Its revenue increased by 5.6%, and non-interest expenses jumped by 6.8%. Meanwhile, the company’s stock declined by 16%. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of JP Morgan Chase stock. The stock declined more than 16% in 2022. 2022 (full-year) vs. 2021 (full-year) Net income 2022 = $37.7 billion (vs. $48.3 billion in 2021; -22% YoY) Revenue 2022 = $132.3 billion (vs. $125.3 billion in 2021; +6.6% YoY) Noninterest expenses 2022 = $76.2 billion (vs. $71.3 billion in 2021; +6.8% YoY) Pre-Provision profit/loss 2022 = $56.1 billion (vs. $54 billion in 2021; +4% YoY) EPS = $3.57 4Q 2022 vs. 4Q 2021 (year over year) Net income 4Q = $11 billion (vs. $10.4 billion in 4Q21; +5.8% YoY) Net revenue 4Q = $35.6 billion (vs. $30.4 billion in 4Q21; +17%. YoY) Net interest income 4Q = $20.3 billion (+48% YoY) Noninterest income 4Q = $15.3 billion (-8% YoY) Noninterest expenses 4Q = $19.0 billion (+6% YoY)
NYSE:JPM
by Tradersweekly
9
Martin Luther King Jr. Day - Market AnalysisKey events: US – Martin Luther King, Jr. Day UK – BoE Gov Bailey Speaks The recently released CPI is prompting investors to question the Fed's plans to raise the overnight rate above 5%. The market doesn't seem to care, and after this data coincides with the forecast, yields are falling across the curve. Thus, 2-year Treasury yields have fallen to their lowest level since October, with room to fall substantially. If the Fed really does intend to raise rates that much and maintain tight financial conditions, then it appears that the market is not listening to the central bank and not paying attention to what it wants. This only suggests that the Fed's forward guidance is no longer working. The Fed will have to dig into its toolbox to convince the market that it is serious. The central bank may have to talk about accelerating the pace of balance sheet reduction or outright sales of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The market indicates that the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end, with the belief that the central bank will be forced to cut rates as soon as 2023. However, the Fed continues to insist that it plans to raise rates above 5% and leave them high and financial conditions tight for a long time. The 2-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level since early October. This is the first weakening in months. Apparently, the rate cut is now embedded in the quotes of not only the federal funds rate futures market. As a consequence, the Fed will be forced to use balance sheet talk as a last resort to ensure that rates remain elevated and the dollar remains strong enough to prevent a stronger-than-acceptable Fed easing of financial conditions. The market, on the other hand, is trying to figure out how much pressure it can put on the Fed to maintain tight financial conditions. If the central bank is serious, sooner or later it will try to fight back. Otherwise, the Fed will lose control of the public discourse and won't be able to tell the markets what direction it thinks they should go. Talk of a higher overnight rate is no longer having the desired effect, so the next option for the Fed is balance. If it doesn't use that option, the markets will take it as a signal that the Fed is okay with easing financial conditions and thus gives the markets permission to continue the rally.
TVC:US02Y
by FOREXN1
7