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BlackRock ($BLK): Eyeing $914–$874 for ReversalOnce again, our analysis has proven accurate. Following our initial call, NYSE:BLK rallied by 15%, only to retrace by 12%, erasing nearly all gains from the past three months. This serves as a valuable reminder that protecting capital often outweighs chasing setups with lower conviction. Currently, NYSE:BLK is nearing the level we’ve been monitoring, with tomorrow’s earnings report adding some short-term uncertainty and excitement. Despite this, we believe the correction isn’t yet complete. It’s too early to place an order or even set a limit. We will wait for the earnings release and the subsequent market reaction to reassess the situation. Our key focus remains on the $914–$874 zone, where we anticipate a potential reversal and the completion of wave (iv). Once wave (iv) concludes, we expect NYSE:BLK to aim for the previously highlighted targets in our October analysis: $1,057–$1,342. Based on the anticipated completion of wave (iv), the next target for the larger wave ((iii)) aligns with the $1,100–$1,243 range.
NYSE:BLKLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Energy Web - This cycles Energy sector playIm going to be breaking-down what I feel are the best long-term holds in each sector/category of crypto. Starting with the energy sector. I will tell you the pros and cons of each project. Energy Web EWT can beak out of this 4 year long downward trend/channel. There is a ton of upside potential. EWT has many strategic partnertships and completely flown under the radar. Once long term disgruntled holders are out. This project could definitely fly. Especially once the energy narrative begins to pick up. I took a postion around $1.32. I think that this project definitely has $20+ potential. One of the major downsides to the project is that the CEO has esentially been missing in action for a while with no explanantion. Even without the CEO is appears the team has been consistently builing. The price action of this token has been pretty stagnant but that can all change in a blink of an eye. In my opinion this project has bottomed out and offers much more reward than risk at this level. None of this is financial advice. This is just all my opinion. Thanks for viewing my post! Best of luck to all traders!!!
CRYPTO:EWTUSDLong
by Nutty_Trader
Natural Gas - Supply and DemandAs previously iterated in my writings on crude oil NYMEX:CL1! here and here , my opinion is that conditions favor a bull market in energy products. Crude Oil has gained a few points since the time of publishing, and Natural Gas NYMEX:NG1! appears poised to follow suit. As seen below, most energy markets ( NYMEX:CL1! , NYMEX:NG1! , ICEEUR:BRN1! , NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX:MBA1! ) have rallied in the last year. The most active, and volatile of the energy products shown in the above chart is Natural Gas $NYMEX:NG1!. There are many reasons it may have rallied since the 2nd quarter of 2020, such as an energy crisis in Texas, and war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Increasing up to 500% at one point in the last 5 years, though the price has backed off we still observe the market making new highs. There are some very serious considerations in oil and gas, which do not appear to have been of any consideration. Just yesterday, US president Joe Biden elected to place a ban on all future leases on offshore drilling operations. Though he has cited a transition to clean energy as a suitable alternative, there is not much reason for markets to believe him. As mentioned, back in 2021 an unexpected cold snap in Texas led to panic in domestic energy markets as generators and suppliers were unable to meet demand. According to statistics published domestically all around the world including the USA, it is indicated that inflation has subsided as central banks lower rates. Yet as we can see, Natural Gas in the US in particular has continued to rally, and what's more the futures curve indicates market participants expect the price to continue to rise into 2027. This is in spite of the increasing strength of the US Dollar TVC:DXY , which may weigh against the price of Natural Gas. www.bruegel.org In Europe, the situation surrounding the availability of energy products may be even more alarming. Ukraine has elected to not negotiate terms for an extension of a natural gas contract with Russia. There are many pipelines from Russia which supply much of Europe with natural gas, both offshore and through Ukraine. Much of which will have passed through Ukraine and Belarus, since the sabotage of the Nordstream pipelines. As such much of Europe's energy in the last couple years has been Suppled by the USA, though a significant sum from Russia has continued to be supplied through Ukraine. Considering that the US has just made the decision to reduce it's future supply of natural gas, it seems unlikely that it will be able to supply Europe at the same price. In terms of future uncertainty, we can also look at Canada. A major supplier of energy products globally, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has decided to step down, though an election is not slated until October. With Donald Trump taking office in just 13 days, and threatening tariffs, we might anticipate the lack of clear governance over continental trade will have a negative impact on the stability of natural gas markets. In face of volatility and a decreased future demand, North-American as well as European energy markets seem poised to take a strong bullish stance. Besides pipelines, a great deal of import/export in natural gas is done in Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). Due to violence in the Red Sea, carriers of LNG in particular have opted to take the longer route around the horn of Africa. The politics surrounding commercial maritime shipping have become very complicated in the last year, between terrorist attacks, union strikes, blocked shipping lanes and an (allegedly) poor prognosis for the Panama Canal. Which is to express, without bearing too heavy on details of the politics of maritime law, that the future has become uncertain. Since 2022 interest rates have been rising, and as such commercial shipping insurance rates have been rising, war clauses notwithstanding. Since insurance companies are at liberty to play politics, it should leave no doubt in a speculators' mind that they will. Already lobbying efforts have begun to remove EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, for the effect they have had on oceanic insurance. This issue is further discussed in my first post on crude oil. See below the price of Natural gas in the UK over the last year. Natural gas consumption worldwide has been on the rise for the past several decades, as it is sought after as a cleaner and cheaper alternative to crude oil derivatives. It must be considered that beyond supplying energy to the public, this commodity plays an important role in industrial processes and manufacturing. The effect of a reduced supply encompasses a gross majority of the global economy. In fact it is so obvious that the price will rise, the only bear argument I can surmise might be a global conspiracy against energy and the trading of energy products, thus rendering their useless and of little worth. Given the sweeping measures imposed by Biden just 14 days before the end of his presidency, traders should beware of capital controls imposed on these markets. While I am wholly bullish on this market, on every basis from technical to fundamental, it is a SERIOUS risk that trading in these markets will be prohibited through political measures. Sovereign debt is mounting, and inflation threatens to critically exacerbate the issue of interest rates. That being said, markets are markets. Thanks for reading. "It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so" -Mark Twain
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by FPS_Denny
The Relationship Between Dollar Dominance, Debt, and Deficits The US dollar's position as the world's reserve currency grants the United States a unique set of economic advantages and challenges. This "exorbitant privilege," as it's often called, significantly influences the nation's ability to manage its debt and deficits. Understanding this complex relationship is crucial for comprehending the dynamics of the global financial system and the US economy's position within it. Dollar Dominance: A Foundation of Economic Power The dollar's status as the primary reserve currency means that it is widely held by central banks, international institutions, and businesses worldwide. This widespread acceptance creates consistent demand for dollar-denominated assets, particularly US Treasury bonds. This demand is a key factor in allowing the US government to finance its debt at relatively low-interest rates. If the US were to borrow in another currency, or if global demand for its debt were significantly lower, the cost of borrowing would likely increase, making it more expensive to finance government spending. This dominance also simplifies international trade for US businesses. Because the dollar is the standard currency for many global transactions, US companies can conduct business with reduced exchange rate risks and transaction costs. This ease of trade strengthens the US position in the global economy and contributes to its overall economic power. Debt and Deficits: The Fiscal Realities Government debt represents the accumulation of past budget deficits. A budget deficit occurs when government spending exceeds its revenue in a given fiscal year. These deficits require the government to borrow money, primarily by issuing Treasury bonds, which then contribute to the overall national debt. While deficits can be used strategically to stimulate the economy during downturns or to fund essential public services, persistent and large deficits can lead to a growing national debt. A high debt level can have several potential consequences, including higher interest payments on the debt, reduced fiscal flexibility to respond to future economic crises, and potential inflationary pressures. The Interplay: Dollar Dominance and Fiscal Policy The relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is complex and multifaceted. The ability to borrow at lower costs due to the dollar's reserve currency status can, in some ways, lessen the immediate pressure to address budget imbalances. The lower interest rates make it less painful in the short term to finance deficits, potentially leading to a greater accumulation of debt over time. However, it's crucial to understand that dollar dominance does not directly cause deficits. Deficits are a result of fiscal policy decisions—specifically, decisions about government spending and taxation. Dollar dominance merely affects the cost of financing those decisions. A government could run deficits regardless of its currency's global status, but the financial implications would likely be significantly different. One could argue that the "exorbitant privilege" afforded by dollar dominance creates a moral hazard. Knowing that borrowing costs are relatively low could incentivize policymakers to engage in more expansive fiscal policies than they might otherwise pursue. This can lead to a situation where the long-term consequences of debt accumulation are downplayed in favor of short-term political or economic gains. Potential Challenges to Dollar Dominance While the dollar has maintained its dominant position for decades, several factors could potentially challenge its future status. The rise of other economic powers, the development of alternative reserve currencies, and shifts in global trade patterns are all potential threats. For example, the increasing economic influence of countries like China has led to discussions about the potential for the renminbi to become a more prominent player in the global financial system. However, for a currency to achieve reserve status, it requires deep and liquid financial markets, strong institutions, and widespread trust in the issuing country's economic and political stability. These are factors that have contributed to the dollar's strength and are not easily replicated. Furthermore, the emergence of new technologies, such as cryptocurrencies and digital payment systems, could potentially disrupt traditional financial flows and challenge the existing currency hierarchy. However, these technologies are still relatively new and face regulatory and adoption hurdles before they could pose a significant threat to the dollar's dominance. Maintaining the Dollar's Strength Maintaining the dollar's strength and its reserve currency status is a complex undertaking. It requires a combination of sound economic policies, strong institutions, and a commitment to maintaining open and transparent financial markets. Sustainable fiscal policies are essential. While dollar dominance provides some flexibility, persistently large deficits and a rapidly growing national debt could eventually erode confidence in the dollar and its long-term value. This could lead to a decrease in demand for dollar-denominated assets, potentially increasing borrowing costs and weakening the dollar's global position. In conclusion, the relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is a critical aspect of the US and global economies. While the dollar's reserve currency status provides significant advantages in financing government spending and facilitating international trade, it also presents challenges in managing fiscal policy. Maintaining the dollar's strength requires a balanced approach that prioritizes sound economic management and recognizes the complex interplay between these crucial economic factors.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
jasmy (JASMY) "INDICATIONS"The BBTrend indicator reveals whether the price is overbought or oversold. Red is too low "oversold" and green is too high "overbought." In this case Jasmy is quite neutral on that fact. The Yellow stepped line is the 100 Moving Average. When the 100 MA is smoothing out and rounding over this is a sign of the price reversing. As you can see the steps are large and there is no smoothing happening. Also with my 2x100 indicator the waves run between the two lines like a MACD with the 100MA line on top for positive growth and when the smooth green line crosses over the stepped line this is a sign of a reversal as well. As you can see the recent price increase is therefore sturdy based on these two indications.
COINBASE:JASMYUSD
by CryptocurrencyBlot
1
"A Strong Setup for Bitcoin's Surge to $110K NEXTBitcoin is trading around $96,000, with strong indicators pointing toward a potential surge to $110K. The cryptocurrency’s recent price action has captivated market watchers, as it consolidates within a narrow range below the $110,000 threshold. Analysts view this consolidation phase, between $95,000 and $98,000, as a necessary breather following a major rally. It provides the market with time to stabilize before its next potential breakout. **Consolidation or the calm before the storm?** On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s reduced volatility highlights market indecision. Yet, technical indicators suggest a bullish undercurrent. The moving averages reveal a golden cross pattern, with the 50-day moving average staying well above the 200-day average—a strong signal of sustained bullish momentum. With the stage set for a decisive move, Bitcoin’s next steps could determine its trajectory toward the $110K mark. LINK ON BIO FOR ALL INFO
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSD
by IPatrice
DXY: High-Probability Retracement SetupThe DXY has been forming higher highs, signaling bullish momentum. Currently, the market appears to be making a short-term retracement into a daily bullish order block (OB) at 105.174, which aligns with a high-probability setup, further supported by a fair value gap (FVG) just above it. Confirmation of this retracement transitioning into expansion will occur if a daily candle taps into the OB and closes above the PD array. If this scenario unfolds, the next target is the buy-side liquidity (BSL) at 108.060, marking a significant level for potential upside momentum. Keep an eye on the daily closures for validation, and always align entries with confluences for optimal risk management.
TVC:DXYLong
by INSIDER_INTEL
VIX for a blowout Another VIX post which have been received well in the past. SPX is due for a huge correction and I think this will begin today, alongside all other major indices. We see a Cup & Handle formation in the making and I believe that this is soon to be confirmed. It is also resting on a historical trend line as well as various other resistance related metrics. Target is very conservative with a lot of room to go past the highs in August. Re asses as this moves.
CAPITALCOMSB:VIXLong
by SkyTrees