Get started

USA

ridethepig | CNH Market Commentary 22.08.2021Buyers position marks (5) as a soft and temporary floor. Other events can cause the base to appear a lot stronger than it does, so the transfer of the attack from one direction to the other can be subtle, although not a matter of pure chance. It has been a relatively straight forward flow, but one that has not seen much light thrown on the subject thanks to noisy explanations. As can be seen in the charts below, @ridethepig was concerned at the highs. The said possibility of a temporary floor is much rather a natural profit taking move in the struggle against sentiment. A considered judgement about the perverse signally from PBOC and Xi ought to look something like; base at 6.35xx is strong support (after the powerful legs lower it is very sensitive). That is the real truth, we are inside a multi-year decline that could go a lot. lot lower, for now, we shall have to content ourselves with limiting adding short positions till we are back above (4) highs at 6.587x for another test of the lows in our current range (6.58x - 6.40x).
Long
by ridethepig
2
✅CAN GOVERNMENTS BAN BITCOIN?🚀 CAN GOVERNMENTS BAN BITCOIN? The rise and rise of the payment means that are not under the government control has been a thorn in the butts of all governments for the last 3 or so years. And as the price of bitcoin was storming the new heights during the lockdown rally the chatter of the need to ban/control/confiscate/tax were getting louder and louder The motivations of the governments for this move are just as transparent as they are despicable for us, the people. But before I dive into the analysis of the situation, which seems to be far away from butterflies and unicorns, I must reveal my bias, to avid being accused of being a crypto skeptic by the local mob of crypto bugs. I consider myself a libertarian, which means that I believe in Individualism, limited government, peace, tolerance, and free markets. That makes me a natural crypto enthusiast, as decentralized finance is a path to a freer more open society with the alternative to the fiat money issued by the governments, which might act as a check on their inflationary and spending appetites. I was an early fan of Bitcoin and I hold a crypto portfolio myself. Now, governments by definition don’t share libertarian values, thus whatever is seen as a benefit from the freedom-loving perspective is evil to the governments. And the lack of surveillance capabilities and the fact that crypto might compete with the precious fiat paper are the reasons why any government will seek to ban crypto at some point in the future. One more serious problem for the state is that crypto, thanks to its relative anonymity might allow people to avoid paying taxes, which causes ire among the officials. As always, reasons for the ban that will be cited to the public will have nothing to do with reality . Among those, is the need to clamp down on the black market, online drug sales, tax evasion might be mentioned as well and all that will be served under the sauce of protecting us, the little guys. Interestingly enough, the governments are racing to launch their own electronic currencies , because, just as one might design a coin to be untraceable, one might design it to be 100% traceable as well. In addition to that, if all of us have our bank accounts with the central bank , entirely new forms of previously impossible ways to control the people emerge. Central bank’s Electronic money can be restricted geographically, or in any other way, for example, banning you, personally, from buying burgers, because some bureaucrat thought that you are too fat, while feeding all the info about your speeding directly to the CB . All it will take to leave you penniless is turning off your account with the CB . Absolute control over the economy of the likes of which even the Soviets could not have dreamt of. But now that we arrived at the obvious conclusion that the governments have more than enough reason to go for a ban, let’s examine whether they have the means to do so and what will that do to the prices. And unfortunately, I happen to be quite pessimistic on this front. All it would take is a law banning crypto. Of course, If a small country bans Crypto it will affect neither its price nor its usability even for the country’s residents, however, if such a law is passed by the EU, or the USA, it's game over. You see, most of the technologies that changed our lives in the last 20 years have one thing in common, which is the network effect. The internet, social media, and online platforms such as Uber or Amazon, benefit from the fact that the more people use their service the more valuable the network is and hence even more people join in to use it, while the benefit for those already using It increases. The same goes for Crypto. In the last years, we’ve seen more and more companies starting to accept bitcoin as payment, while purchasing it got easier and easier. There are even Bitcoin ATMs where I live, that allow customers to buy and sell crypto for cash which is super convenient. The Bitcoin brand itself is probably worth more than 100 billion dollars , thanks to the fact that even the older people have heard about it by now. And all that was pushing the price higher, as the expectations of further growth justified 1 million dollars per Bitcoin in the not-so-distant future. However, if there is a major government such a the US that issues a blanket ban, all companies that accepted crypto will cease doing so immediately, and the crypto marketplaces and exchanges will cease to function and stop accepting payments from that jurisdiction. If it is the US that bans crypto, it would mean a de fact ban on using dollars to buy it, which would make this technology unusable for most of us. The state might take it a step further and make transacting in crypto, or even just holding it a criminal offense, which would reduce the number of people using it to the few shady cartels south of the border. The ban would also make mining impossible, and as we know mining not only creates now coins but is also essential for the functioning of the network. Without it, transactions would be impossible. Therefore, the user base will be limited by the mining capacity left in the world, drying up transaction fees making it even harder to use. Hedgefunds and those who are important to the system will be warned about the ban beforehand, so it will be us, the little guys who will lose our savings. The price will collapse as leveraged players will be trying to exit the asset, causing panic and a massive selloff. And for those who say that «this is impossible simply because this is impossible»(read, I still trust the government) let me remind you of how unceremoniously gold was essentially banned from using it as means of exchange by the US government with the gold confiscation act of 1933. The robbery of the century- something that was unimaginable and unheard of previously, was done peacefully with the stroke of a pen and everyone obeyed and traded in their gold for the Fed papers. And keep in mind that gold was far more widespread, used, and relied on that crypto now, which means that if the Ban of crypto came in today, there would be no mass riots on the streets. So, please, excuse my pessimism when I say that when not if the powerful nations of the world decide to ban our fancy shining coins of liberty, they will succeed . And I am of an opinion that this will happen sooner rather than later, because «they» can not let the whole thing get too big to fail. What I mean is that if the market cap of all the coins is 1-3 Trillion, they can handle the damage of wiping off this wealth. However, if it gets to 10-15 Trillion the consequences of the collapse might destabilize the system itself. In conclusion, as much as I don’t want this to happen, the ban is not only possible but highly likely and will come sooner rather than later, with the early birds of partial bans being India and China showing us the way. However, that does not mean that we can’t enjoy a couple more of the bullish waves making 100-300% and enriching ourselves hand over fist, which is why we’ve all gathered here, at the end of the day! Just jump off the train before the wheels fall off! Thanks to all who read the text with so many letters in it. I am expecting a fiery discussion in the comments!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ProSignalsFx
1
Forex & Stock & macro news n°34> Bear utopia: Gamestop (GME) short interest hits lowest level in years, China A50 meltdown *********************** GME, which is down 70% from its high earlier this year, has seen its short interest continue to dwindle as the share price has been ranging for 6 months, likely causing short sellers to look for other opportunities. The short interest being so low compared to usual, and the price looking so heavy it might be about to break, makes it interesting to squeeze these retail lemons for those that don't mind waiting a bit and taking a risk. After the short squeeze the percentage of short went from 150% of float to 40%. Since then it has progressively gone down to the present less than 13% The high volatility makes it important for the proponents of asymmetrical risk reward and "technical analysis" to pay attention to the price action and wait for a decent ABC pullback for a good entry, as close as possible to a logical stop loss. The stock is visibly in complacency and the eternal bagholders are anxious and nervous, easily raging at bears. The stock which has vanished from the media and people minds may be about to break. It's when they least expect it. Bears will also be happy to know that the chinese stock market has crashed, but it may be at the bottom of an ABC, the communists might bailout the market, again. If they do so will they let us known in advance as they sometimes do? I have no idea if it is time to buy or not. The media are not paying much attention to it, fortunatly I am here to warn people. I just don't know what to do with this info and what the repercussions will be. > US divide within the divide, Australia using repression choppers, France revolution *********************** The US divide and "cold civil war" is continuing, with for example universities holding "anti-racism" workshop where students are taught to "accept white inferiority". No comment. Mayors in Florida crossed the Rubicon and are defying the governors orders. New York governor got accused of rape or sexual harassment and Biden asked him to resigned, he responded by threatening to bring everyone down with him, on the official governor website. A US infrastructure bill will make it illegal to question the CDC. Australia has done mass arrests, and is flying helicopters and drones broadcasting the state propaganda and patrolling the country to find and punish people camping all by themselves in remote locations, who knows, they might transmit covid to squirrels? The Australian executive government has been ordered by the judicial branch to make public their covid-19 documents, behind their executive orders (a synonym is dictat), but they have disobeyed and still have not made those public, they plan on appealing the decision. Australia police has the "right" to freely enter into people homes and even remove their kids from them, no court order no nothing, they do as they see fit. China has condemned Australia violations of human rights and the double standard of those that so often have criticized the CCP. France, which is working on creating a Ministry of Truth, yes, really, just like in 1984, has introduced a sanitary pass, and a minister even said with a smile that people who would not vaccinate would technically lose their jobs but without getting unemployment benefits. Several ministers have said "let them have cake" with a vicious smile. The french public is outraged and is protesting on a regular basis with the last official numbers at 250,000 protestors in the middle of holidays, of course the government numbers are below reality. In french islands the crowd even opened fire on police and 9 officers got hit. > West fearful of coming political collapse, taking steps to hold onto power by force *********************** Virtually all of the population are wageslaves and the state has enormous economic control over them, to solidify their control, the EU is banning cash payments over 10,000 euros. But this is not enough for the crumbling ruling class, and so both the US and France are currenctly testing police robots. Reminds me of hedge funds consultations a few years ago, they were all buying bunkers and asking experts how to keep control on their security guards "use obedience collars?". France has made laws making it illegal to film police, and has normalized the use of drones already. This enables to little minority to hold onto power, it has many advantages for them such as blindly following orders including opening fire on the populace, and there is no risk it will show human sympathy for the unwashed masses. They are calling the robots "cute dogs" to not scare the population, it is childish and incredibly stupid but as always the dumbest members of society will fall for it. This dystopian nightmare is nothing new, back in the Bronze Age small "elites" subjugated the population by using bronze armor and weapons. They are very expensive and offer a huge fighting advantage, the population could not afford them and had no solution. All the ancient kingdoms disappeared in the iron age as weapons became cheaper. There are other solutions. For example the slavs were getting raped and enslaved by huns in the 6th century, but a french trader decided to sell weapons to them (and only to their side) and even helped them organise, they broke free and the trader became the first slav king. Another solution is invading armies. The population side with the conquering army. Persian chad Darius built the largest empire ever that contained 50% of earth population, he asked his politicians or bureaucrats "I lowered the taxes, are they fair now?", they answered "yes" and so Darius said "Good. Divide them in 2.". The nobles of Babylon, Egypt etc had inhuman taxes, to give you an idea of how bad it was the taxes back then were nearly as high as today, and some farmers had to sell themselves into slavery to pay their taxes. Putin said that the west not only became absurd (Marcus Tullius Cicero said: The closer the collapse of the Empire the crazier its laws.), but reminded the ruling class that the USSR too thought they could be unfair and ignore discontent because they were "so big and powerful". France ruling class might have gotten the message because they have started to acknowledge the protests and even stopped calling them "antivaxx". They act tough but they are terrified. For example when a bunch of retired generals wrote an open letter saying "the military might have to act" (to defend ghettos from terrorists) the french government panicked and read "we might have to act by arresting the government and declaring martial law", there are many "hints" people can see that reveal what people really think. > Conspiracy theory: The US plan on keeping rates low to continue to steal the populace *********************** Not only does this not seem far fetched but it is logical and seems obvious. The FED is now openly working for the US government, you'd have to have the wrong number of chromosomes to disagree as they literally openly say they cooperate with the treasury... I don't know what more people want but some are stupid enough to still call that a conspiracy theory. Anyway the speculative part is that the FED, which now works for the government, does not want to increase rates, as the broke government has massive debt and keeps increasing its spending, now at an alarming rate. Official US documents from branches of the government have been repeating for more than 2 decades that the situation was not sustainable, so I'm pretty sure they are aware of it. Like Romania and others, the only way for the ruling class to continue this pyramid scheme is to force new people in it, and luckily for them the population has no clue how it all works, so they will just use low rates to steal money from them. They reduce their debt via inflation (average suckers pay). They borrow more at low (de facto negative) rates. They pay back what they owe with no interest. Simple. The clueless "normies" that laugh at you are the ones that get bled dry by this, love karma. They will whine about inequality and after 30 years it will reach their brain that prices and profits went up but their wages did not. The middle class, and even the rich but not ultra rich, pays for the government games through their wages, their savings, their retirements, their dwindling standard of life. Millenials will be the first generation to be worse off than their parents. The poor profit from government spending but make no mistake eventually they will pay, it's just more of a "later" or "one time" thing. They have no money so they will pay in blood. Riots in poor hoods, no access to food, goodbye healthcare (already started), and so on. I think urban dwellers will suffer too, it's likely there is a mass die-off. Very easy to block the roads with trucks or tanks. They're so concentrated and not behind castle walls with long lasting supplies. Strategically (or tactically) their position is known as "suicide". Interestingly french truckers have called for strikes (no more food deliveries) and for a blocus of cities with their massive trucks. Urbans think africans are too stupid to survive, actually they have more than enough food, the starving happens in areas with civil war (everywhere lol) and is strategical; they will soon learn this harsh lesson. Government has been warned of exceptionally fragile supply bottlenecks but as usual they couldn't care less, all that matters is the stuff visible to plebes that gets them re-elected. > Many small and a few big but not biggest central banks increase their interest rates *********************** The US and Europe are not moving theirs. But plenty of countries that are significant "exotics" and "small" ones are. Brazil increased their rate by 100 bps. Russia which now holds 0 usdollars also raised theirs. And Countries we don't really trade including Moldova (100 bps up to 3.25%), Armenia, Georgia, South Korea. The west are just turning into massive pyramid schemes and slowly collapsing. The share of world GDP of the west already is crossing below 50%. The dominance is ending. Other interesting news is that the PBoC are increasing their "green finance" with low cost funding, and are now more convinced than ever to crackdown on crypto. Might be interesting to hold some currencies if rates keep going up without too much inflation (just they maybe weaken against the US ponzi scheme). Just avoid Iran, a Bahrain court convicted them of money laundering. Once the US falls as they did in Afghanistan then maybe Iran will be a smart choice. Will be pretty cool to have the ability of building a diversified portfolio finally. > G30 call for a reform of US treasury, ECB alerts on credit risk and economic fragility *********************** I don't want to go too much into details because it is boring banking stuff. It's not fun like a revolution or a collapse. But quickly: The G30 suggested the US treasury gets reformed, as bouts of dysfunction become increasingly common, and have urged the US to "increase, diversify and stabilise" market-making. To sum up they found that it did not serve its safe-haven purpose (wasn't their "go to" when they wanted quick cash), huh well it's still the "go-to safe haven" of the plebes. Even the bankers dodge the USD, meanwhile it keeps going up because noobs keep irrationally buying it. The group of bankers in particular mentionned the ability to function in time of stress, sort of repeating their "go to safe haven" point. They REALLY want to protect THEIR money. The G30 is made up of current and former heads of the central banks of 17 countries, as well as 2 chairmen from the FED, 2 from the ECB, and a few from international institutions (Basel com., IMF, BIS, World Bank). And the former president of Mexico. Don't ask me why. The ECB for their part are also worried about stress. They did a stress test and found there was banking fragility. I think overall they are satisfied but found vulnerabilities in particular in credit risk, in other words another debt default chain reaction and them, the bankers, not getting their money back.
by MrRenev
2
Wyckoff Accumulation in HYLNBiden's signing of the Electric Vehicle executive order may be a tailwind for HYLN (Hyliion), the Texas-based company producing EV motors and retrofitting hybrid systems for long-haul trucking fleets. Add to that the proposed I-14 expansion between Texas and Georgia and the electric vehicle charging stations included in the current Infrastructure Bill going through congress, I believe there is a buying opportunity here of which many hedge funds and institutional investors are already aware. This accumulation is happening already, with 13F filings on whalewisdom.com showing that since 7/26, HFs have initiated new positions to the tune of roughly 800K shares long, and those already with positions have increased their holdings by over 1.25m shares in the same time period. This can be seen on the chart as well, with this classic Wyckoff Accumulation pattern playing out nicely. Add in a heavy amount of short interest, and upcoming earnings, and this stock could really make a move on positive PR.
HLong
by barrymeindrinks
8
SINGAPORE INDONESIA MALAYSIA US COVID ProjectionTime for an update... Singapore is not enjoying it, but it is in a surprise wave. IT should start to taper off, but the tail would be long... Indonesia was as projected, and appears to be slowing slightly. Malaysia is the surprise, as instead of tailing off, a new spike over the last three weeks emerged and the trajectory indicates higher levels over the next weeks. Of interest, the USA... as the CDC makes about turns in their advisory, and summer holidays are going on with people being still very complacent about it, it looks like a spike wave is due over the next two weeks, and projected to accelerate. On this note, I wonder IF the equity market will finally realize and freak out for a bit here... It has been 1.5 years, have we learnt nothing? If at all, the war has changed inherently, with the Delta variant. There will be more to come...
C
by Auguraltrader
Eu Price action analysis coming into the London session Good Morning traders and welcome to another day! Today EU is providing us with LOTS of information about potential moves. Currently we are in a daily uptrend, however the 4hr and 1hr are in down trends. We can see a recent push to the downside, this has created a sell range. We have a GREAT 15min range to target where the move initiated from. Also Equal highs (theses provide liquidity for banks to sweep). Along with the EQH we can also see liquidity being built for a downside move. Price is pulling back from the Asian high which is also an EQH. I expect the market will push through this area, "sweeping" the range and push into the 15min range. At this point I will be targeting a sell-it would be a no brainer. While I am bias to the short trade here-the daily does have upside momentum which I wont lose sight of.
Short
by EnvisionEJ
USA COVID: Watch out!Was just speaking to a good buddy who saw an interview where someone said that in a few weeks, the Delta wave would be over. I pulled out the chart, and by any measure, it does not appear so! The only time this model failed was the Singapore KTV Club surge, which is an anomaly, and a gamechanger... much as an awakening call. Otherwise, it has been pretty darn reliable. Just hours ago... the CDC reversed its decision/recommendation on vaccinated people and mask wearing. Essentially, admitting that even vaccinated people can be infected, and spread the Delta variant. www.nytimes.com www.washingtonpost.com www.bloomberg.com Check in again in September! Meanwhile... please take care and be safe.
C
by Auguraltrader
Possible Levels in case we observe a normal correction. S&P500 As you already know, EVERYTHING will tend to correct after a certain period of rising periods. This doesn't mean at all unnormal or apocalyptical forecasts. So, if the index corrects, what can we expect? Currently, the price is on the edge of the ascending trendline holding the ascending movement since March 2020. From here, we have two support levels that we think the price may reach If we observe a correction. First level 4000.0 - Second Level 3750.0. On each of them, we have shown the % decline, and we also have drawn a circle on the last correction to get an idea of the shapes we may observe and the durations. Ok, and what if the correction doesn't happen? What can we expect? In that case, we think it would be appropriate to see a breakout of the current channel (yellow lines), and if that happens then, the secondary yellow trendline has been working pretty well as a dynamic resistance zone. the target for that movement is 4700.0 How can I use this analysis? That depends on your trading style. The main objective of our analysis is to define clear zones that we consider are paths of low resistance. So, the areas from level to level are appropriate for people trying to catch small trends. The levels themselves are good situations for reversal traders. Again, everything depends on your style. What is our trading plan? At the moment, we are not developing setups on the index; we must watch clear corrections before developing new trading opportunities (that's our trading strategy. Trade after corrections) So, the optimal scenario for us to trade would be observing the -9 or -14% correction. Paying attention to the shape of the structure and trade the breakout. Thanks for reading! We hope this can bring better insight into your decision-making.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
4
5 Year T-Note Futures Heading Lower Towards 123Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZF1!) . Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. zf1! has been channeling lower after making a high of 124’08 on July 8th. First low was observed on July 13th around the 123’18”5 price level and a lower high is seen around 124 on July 15th. ZF1! Is expected to make a lower low at 123’14”5 in the short term. Technical Indicators ZF1! is currently below its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages and its RSI is trading below 50. Moreover, the KST recently had a negative crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing ZF1!is trading around 123’25”2. The medium-term target price is observed around the 123’14”5 price level. A stop loss is set at 124. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.54.
CBOT:ZF1!Short
by Ceddy86
Happy (Independence weekend) - Early Logging off for the weekend! I wanted to say, have a great weekend! One question for you - where do you think BTC will be at the close of Sunday (4th of July)??? Up or down? Sideways? What you got? See our signature for more info & related ideas linked below; Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT
by Mayfair_Ventures
29
I MADE THIS FOR YOUUUU!!!Drink...my....HOT......KOOLAID!!!!! Just my observations looking back on all the events during this credit expansion cycle. VERY interesting when you look at the RSI indicator below. Look at all the historical market events that correlate to exact tests. ***The Cryptocurrency markets will lead the way off the cliff. We may have already started... I really don't know if we're going to 100k but I am holding my crypto still because it is the future. Think about it. The best performing assets usually are the ones that crash and pop the bubble because they pumped the bubble up so much. What has been the best performing asset over the last 10 years? Crypto. I love crypto and know blockchain is the future, but my blockchain friends need to remember that crypto will most likely crash similar to the 1929 crash. We'll wipe away all the bad cryptos and fakes by devastating the market so badly that only the real projects stay. Those will be the Amazon, Apple, and Google of crypto. If you have cash at the bottom of the crash and are able to invest then, you could be set for life. Should be able to buy a country if you figure out how to short this correctly. I appreciate any advice you experts may have. Buying VXX puts seems to be the general consensus. Maybe 1-2 years out?... I've only traded for 6 years so I'm still trying to understand the markets. (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Just what I'm seeing.)
DJ:DJIShort
by MonetaryRebel
2