Get started

USA

Forex & Stock & macro news n°34> Bear utopia: Gamestop (GME) short interest hits lowest level in years, China A50 meltdown *********************** GME, which is down 70% from its high earlier this year, has seen its short interest continue to dwindle as the share price has been ranging for 6 months, likely causing short sellers to look for other opportunities. The short interest being so low compared to usual, and the price looking so heavy it might be about to break, makes it interesting to squeeze these retail lemons for those that don't mind waiting a bit and taking a risk. After the short squeeze the percentage of short went from 150% of float to 40%. Since then it has progressively gone down to the present less than 13% The high volatility makes it important for the proponents of asymmetrical risk reward and "technical analysis" to pay attention to the price action and wait for a decent ABC pullback for a good entry, as close as possible to a logical stop loss. The stock is visibly in complacency and the eternal bagholders are anxious and nervous, easily raging at bears. The stock which has vanished from the media and people minds may be about to break. It's when they least expect it. Bears will also be happy to know that the chinese stock market has crashed, but it may be at the bottom of an ABC, the communists might bailout the market, again. If they do so will they let us known in advance as they sometimes do? I have no idea if it is time to buy or not. The media are not paying much attention to it, fortunatly I am here to warn people. I just don't know what to do with this info and what the repercussions will be. > US divide within the divide, Australia using repression choppers, France revolution *********************** The US divide and "cold civil war" is continuing, with for example universities holding "anti-racism" workshop where students are taught to "accept white inferiority". No comment. Mayors in Florida crossed the Rubicon and are defying the governors orders. New York governor got accused of rape or sexual harassment and Biden asked him to resigned, he responded by threatening to bring everyone down with him, on the official governor website. A US infrastructure bill will make it illegal to question the CDC. Australia has done mass arrests, and is flying helicopters and drones broadcasting the state propaganda and patrolling the country to find and punish people camping all by themselves in remote locations, who knows, they might transmit covid to squirrels? The Australian executive government has been ordered by the judicial branch to make public their covid-19 documents, behind their executive orders (a synonym is dictat), but they have disobeyed and still have not made those public, they plan on appealing the decision. Australia police has the "right" to freely enter into people homes and even remove their kids from them, no court order no nothing, they do as they see fit. China has condemned Australia violations of human rights and the double standard of those that so often have criticized the CCP. France, which is working on creating a Ministry of Truth, yes, really, just like in 1984, has introduced a sanitary pass, and a minister even said with a smile that people who would not vaccinate would technically lose their jobs but without getting unemployment benefits. Several ministers have said "let them have cake" with a vicious smile. The french public is outraged and is protesting on a regular basis with the last official numbers at 250,000 protestors in the middle of holidays, of course the government numbers are below reality. In french islands the crowd even opened fire on police and 9 officers got hit. > West fearful of coming political collapse, taking steps to hold onto power by force *********************** Virtually all of the population are wageslaves and the state has enormous economic control over them, to solidify their control, the EU is banning cash payments over 10,000 euros. But this is not enough for the crumbling ruling class, and so both the US and France are currenctly testing police robots. Reminds me of hedge funds consultations a few years ago, they were all buying bunkers and asking experts how to keep control on their security guards "use obedience collars?". France has made laws making it illegal to film police, and has normalized the use of drones already. This enables to little minority to hold onto power, it has many advantages for them such as blindly following orders including opening fire on the populace, and there is no risk it will show human sympathy for the unwashed masses. They are calling the robots "cute dogs" to not scare the population, it is childish and incredibly stupid but as always the dumbest members of society will fall for it. This dystopian nightmare is nothing new, back in the Bronze Age small "elites" subjugated the population by using bronze armor and weapons. They are very expensive and offer a huge fighting advantage, the population could not afford them and had no solution. All the ancient kingdoms disappeared in the iron age as weapons became cheaper. There are other solutions. For example the slavs were getting raped and enslaved by huns in the 6th century, but a french trader decided to sell weapons to them (and only to their side) and even helped them organise, they broke free and the trader became the first slav king. Another solution is invading armies. The population side with the conquering army. Persian chad Darius built the largest empire ever that contained 50% of earth population, he asked his politicians or bureaucrats "I lowered the taxes, are they fair now?", they answered "yes" and so Darius said "Good. Divide them in 2.". The nobles of Babylon, Egypt etc had inhuman taxes, to give you an idea of how bad it was the taxes back then were nearly as high as today, and some farmers had to sell themselves into slavery to pay their taxes. Putin said that the west not only became absurd (Marcus Tullius Cicero said: The closer the collapse of the Empire the crazier its laws.), but reminded the ruling class that the USSR too thought they could be unfair and ignore discontent because they were "so big and powerful". France ruling class might have gotten the message because they have started to acknowledge the protests and even stopped calling them "antivaxx". They act tough but they are terrified. For example when a bunch of retired generals wrote an open letter saying "the military might have to act" (to defend ghettos from terrorists) the french government panicked and read "we might have to act by arresting the government and declaring martial law", there are many "hints" people can see that reveal what people really think. > Conspiracy theory: The US plan on keeping rates low to continue to steal the populace *********************** Not only does this not seem far fetched but it is logical and seems obvious. The FED is now openly working for the US government, you'd have to have the wrong number of chromosomes to disagree as they literally openly say they cooperate with the treasury... I don't know what more people want but some are stupid enough to still call that a conspiracy theory. Anyway the speculative part is that the FED, which now works for the government, does not want to increase rates, as the broke government has massive debt and keeps increasing its spending, now at an alarming rate. Official US documents from branches of the government have been repeating for more than 2 decades that the situation was not sustainable, so I'm pretty sure they are aware of it. Like Romania and others, the only way for the ruling class to continue this pyramid scheme is to force new people in it, and luckily for them the population has no clue how it all works, so they will just use low rates to steal money from them. They reduce their debt via inflation (average suckers pay). They borrow more at low (de facto negative) rates. They pay back what they owe with no interest. Simple. The clueless "normies" that laugh at you are the ones that get bled dry by this, love karma. They will whine about inequality and after 30 years it will reach their brain that prices and profits went up but their wages did not. The middle class, and even the rich but not ultra rich, pays for the government games through their wages, their savings, their retirements, their dwindling standard of life. Millenials will be the first generation to be worse off than their parents. The poor profit from government spending but make no mistake eventually they will pay, it's just more of a "later" or "one time" thing. They have no money so they will pay in blood. Riots in poor hoods, no access to food, goodbye healthcare (already started), and so on. I think urban dwellers will suffer too, it's likely there is a mass die-off. Very easy to block the roads with trucks or tanks. They're so concentrated and not behind castle walls with long lasting supplies. Strategically (or tactically) their position is known as "suicide". Interestingly french truckers have called for strikes (no more food deliveries) and for a blocus of cities with their massive trucks. Urbans think africans are too stupid to survive, actually they have more than enough food, the starving happens in areas with civil war (everywhere lol) and is strategical; they will soon learn this harsh lesson. Government has been warned of exceptionally fragile supply bottlenecks but as usual they couldn't care less, all that matters is the stuff visible to plebes that gets them re-elected. > Many small and a few big but not biggest central banks increase their interest rates *********************** The US and Europe are not moving theirs. But plenty of countries that are significant "exotics" and "small" ones are. Brazil increased their rate by 100 bps. Russia which now holds 0 usdollars also raised theirs. And Countries we don't really trade including Moldova (100 bps up to 3.25%), Armenia, Georgia, South Korea. The west are just turning into massive pyramid schemes and slowly collapsing. The share of world GDP of the west already is crossing below 50%. The dominance is ending. Other interesting news is that the PBoC are increasing their "green finance" with low cost funding, and are now more convinced than ever to crackdown on crypto. Might be interesting to hold some currencies if rates keep going up without too much inflation (just they maybe weaken against the US ponzi scheme). Just avoid Iran, a Bahrain court convicted them of money laundering. Once the US falls as they did in Afghanistan then maybe Iran will be a smart choice. Will be pretty cool to have the ability of building a diversified portfolio finally. > G30 call for a reform of US treasury, ECB alerts on credit risk and economic fragility *********************** I don't want to go too much into details because it is boring banking stuff. It's not fun like a revolution or a collapse. But quickly: The G30 suggested the US treasury gets reformed, as bouts of dysfunction become increasingly common, and have urged the US to "increase, diversify and stabilise" market-making. To sum up they found that it did not serve its safe-haven purpose (wasn't their "go to" when they wanted quick cash), huh well it's still the "go-to safe haven" of the plebes. Even the bankers dodge the USD, meanwhile it keeps going up because noobs keep irrationally buying it. The group of bankers in particular mentionned the ability to function in time of stress, sort of repeating their "go to safe haven" point. They REALLY want to protect THEIR money. The G30 is made up of current and former heads of the central banks of 17 countries, as well as 2 chairmen from the FED, 2 from the ECB, and a few from international institutions (Basel com., IMF, BIS, World Bank). And the former president of Mexico. Don't ask me why. The ECB for their part are also worried about stress. They did a stress test and found there was banking fragility. I think overall they are satisfied but found vulnerabilities in particular in credit risk, in other words another debt default chain reaction and them, the bankers, not getting their money back.
by MrRenev
2
Wyckoff Accumulation in HYLNBiden's signing of the Electric Vehicle executive order may be a tailwind for HYLN (Hyliion), the Texas-based company producing EV motors and retrofitting hybrid systems for long-haul trucking fleets. Add to that the proposed I-14 expansion between Texas and Georgia and the electric vehicle charging stations included in the current Infrastructure Bill going through congress, I believe there is a buying opportunity here of which many hedge funds and institutional investors are already aware. This accumulation is happening already, with 13F filings on whalewisdom.com showing that since 7/26, HFs have initiated new positions to the tune of roughly 800K shares long, and those already with positions have increased their holdings by over 1.25m shares in the same time period. This can be seen on the chart as well, with this classic Wyckoff Accumulation pattern playing out nicely. Add in a heavy amount of short interest, and upcoming earnings, and this stock could really make a move on positive PR.
HLong
by barrymeindrinks
8
SINGAPORE INDONESIA MALAYSIA US COVID ProjectionTime for an update... Singapore is not enjoying it, but it is in a surprise wave. IT should start to taper off, but the tail would be long... Indonesia was as projected, and appears to be slowing slightly. Malaysia is the surprise, as instead of tailing off, a new spike over the last three weeks emerged and the trajectory indicates higher levels over the next weeks. Of interest, the USA... as the CDC makes about turns in their advisory, and summer holidays are going on with people being still very complacent about it, it looks like a spike wave is due over the next two weeks, and projected to accelerate. On this note, I wonder IF the equity market will finally realize and freak out for a bit here... It has been 1.5 years, have we learnt nothing? If at all, the war has changed inherently, with the Delta variant. There will be more to come...
C
by Auguraltrader
Eu Price action analysis coming into the London session Good Morning traders and welcome to another day! Today EU is providing us with LOTS of information about potential moves. Currently we are in a daily uptrend, however the 4hr and 1hr are in down trends. We can see a recent push to the downside, this has created a sell range. We have a GREAT 15min range to target where the move initiated from. Also Equal highs (theses provide liquidity for banks to sweep). Along with the EQH we can also see liquidity being built for a downside move. Price is pulling back from the Asian high which is also an EQH. I expect the market will push through this area, "sweeping" the range and push into the 15min range. At this point I will be targeting a sell-it would be a no brainer. While I am bias to the short trade here-the daily does have upside momentum which I wont lose sight of.
Short
by EnvisionEJ
USA COVID: Watch out!Was just speaking to a good buddy who saw an interview where someone said that in a few weeks, the Delta wave would be over. I pulled out the chart, and by any measure, it does not appear so! The only time this model failed was the Singapore KTV Club surge, which is an anomaly, and a gamechanger... much as an awakening call. Otherwise, it has been pretty darn reliable. Just hours ago... the CDC reversed its decision/recommendation on vaccinated people and mask wearing. Essentially, admitting that even vaccinated people can be infected, and spread the Delta variant. www.nytimes.com www.washingtonpost.com www.bloomberg.com Check in again in September! Meanwhile... please take care and be safe.
C
by Auguraltrader
Possible Levels in case we observe a normal correction. S&P500 As you already know, EVERYTHING will tend to correct after a certain period of rising periods. This doesn't mean at all unnormal or apocalyptical forecasts. So, if the index corrects, what can we expect? Currently, the price is on the edge of the ascending trendline holding the ascending movement since March 2020. From here, we have two support levels that we think the price may reach If we observe a correction. First level 4000.0 - Second Level 3750.0. On each of them, we have shown the % decline, and we also have drawn a circle on the last correction to get an idea of the shapes we may observe and the durations. Ok, and what if the correction doesn't happen? What can we expect? In that case, we think it would be appropriate to see a breakout of the current channel (yellow lines), and if that happens then, the secondary yellow trendline has been working pretty well as a dynamic resistance zone. the target for that movement is 4700.0 How can I use this analysis? That depends on your trading style. The main objective of our analysis is to define clear zones that we consider are paths of low resistance. So, the areas from level to level are appropriate for people trying to catch small trends. The levels themselves are good situations for reversal traders. Again, everything depends on your style. What is our trading plan? At the moment, we are not developing setups on the index; we must watch clear corrections before developing new trading opportunities (that's our trading strategy. Trade after corrections) So, the optimal scenario for us to trade would be observing the -9 or -14% correction. Paying attention to the shape of the structure and trade the breakout. Thanks for reading! We hope this can bring better insight into your decision-making.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
4
5 Year T-Note Futures Heading Lower Towards 123Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZF1!) . Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. zf1! has been channeling lower after making a high of 124’08 on July 8th. First low was observed on July 13th around the 123’18”5 price level and a lower high is seen around 124 on July 15th. ZF1! Is expected to make a lower low at 123’14”5 in the short term. Technical Indicators ZF1! is currently below its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages and its RSI is trading below 50. Moreover, the KST recently had a negative crossover. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. At the time of publishing ZF1!is trading around 123’25”2. The medium-term target price is observed around the 123’14”5 price level. A stop loss is set at 124. This produces a risk reward ratio of 1.54.
CBOT:ZF1!Short
by Ceddy86