JASMY (jasmy) Jasmy keeps getting stuck above an unending short squeeze linear pattern. The Pattern keeps shifting as the longer Jasmy is not carrying on through the lines and pass the arms folded pattern the worse the short squeezes become.
USA
Bitcoin Weathers the Storm: Resilience Shines Despite DollarBitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, has surprised many by demonstrating resilience in the face of a strengthening US dollar. Despite a historically observed inverse relationship between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin, this comes. The DXY, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, currently sits at a lofty 106, indicating a robust greenback. This level is significant, having only been surpassed for 34 trading days in the past year. Traditionally, a strong dollar weakens the appeal of dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin, as investors seek havens in other currencies.
However, Bitcoin's current price action defies this historical trend. While not at its all-time high, Bitcoin is currently trading only around $10,000 below that peak, a testament to its continued strength in the market. Several factors may be contributing to this unexpected decoupling.
Shifting Investor Sentiment: The cryptocurrency market has matured significantly since its early days, and investor sentiment is evolving alongside it. While Bitcoin was initially seen as a speculative asset class, it's increasingly viewed as a potential hedge against inflation and traditional financial uncertainties. This shift in perception could be mitigating the negative impact of a strong dollar on Bitcoin's price.
Institutional Adoption: The influx of institutional investors, such as hedge funds and investment firms, into the cryptocurrency space is another potential factor. These institutions often have a longer-term investment horizon and may be less swayed by short-term fluctuations in the dollar's value. Their presence could be lending stability to the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Adjustment: The Bitcoin network is designed to adjust mining difficulty roughly every two weeks automatically. This ensures a consistent rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation, regardless of the computing power dedicated to mining. An upcoming significant decrease in mining difficulty is anticipated, which could further bolster investor confidence.
Positive Developments Within the Crypto Ecosystem: The broader cryptocurrency ecosystem is witnessing continuous innovation and development. The emergence of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols, Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), and Layer-2 scaling solutions is attracting new users and capital into the space. This overall growth in the crypto ecosystem could be spilling over and positively impacting Bitcoin's price.
Uncertainties Remain: Despite the positive signs, it's important to acknowledge the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. The future trajectory of the DXY and broader economic conditions will undoubtedly continue to influence Bitcoin's price. Additionally, regulatory developments and potential security breaches could pose challenges in the future.
Looking Forward: Bitcoin's resilience in the face of a strong dollar is noteworthy. While the reasons behind this decoupling are multifaceted, it suggests a maturing market with a growing pool of long-term investors. As the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to evolve and gain mainstream adoption, Bitcoin's position as a store of value and a potential hedge against traditional financial instruments could solidify further. However, close attention should be paid to both internal and external factors that may impact Bitcoin's price in the coming months and years.
Tesla (TSLA) IdeaHey Guys,
Yearly= In a Correction since 2022.
2023 managed only to retest the 50% of the Bearish Candle which is not Bullish but indicated a drop.
Yearly Zones of Interest: 208 & 154
Q2= Bullish Candle at an important Yearly FIB. BUT still in a declining channel.
Stochastic is neutral- bullish. Q4 could provide some bullish setup (according to the stochastics) since we might be forming a higher low here.
Bulls must manage to break through at least the 222 Resistance.
Monthly: Stochastic is bullish - candlestick as well… however the 205 level becomes critical as it is retested with this candle. we also are testing the upper line of a declining channel -> a warning of a possible decline for the next month or so.
Warning line at 205 and the next at 222 as these zones have to be broken to attract more buyers into the markets.
Below 205 I see a great likelyhood of a retest of 3D Lows
Thanks for reading
Dollar Winning Streak Extends Into Fifth Week! Time to Go LongI wanted to share some exciting news from the forex world: the dollar has extended its winning streak into the fifth week! 🎉 A key gauge of the dollar's strength continues to rise, driven by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut. With the yen showing signs of weakness, the USD is shining brightly on the global stage.
This is a golden opportunity for us traders to capitalize on the dollar's momentum. If you haven't already, now might be the perfect time to consider going long on the US dollar. 🌟
Why should you consider this move?
1. **Strong Performance**: The dollar's consistent growth over the past five weeks clearly indicates its robust performance.
2. **Market Uncertainty**: With the Fed's interest-rate cut timeline still unclear, the dollar is likely to remain strong in the near term.
3. **Yen Weakness**: The yen's current weakness further bolsters the USD's position, making it an attractive option for traders.
Don't miss out on this opportunity to ride the wave of the dollar's success! Dive into the market and make the most of this winning streak. 💪
Happy trading, and here's to continued success in all your endeavors!
Conflicted Euro Caught Between Hawkish Fed and Political IssuesThe Eurozone's currency, the Euro, finds itself in a precarious position, buffeted by two powerful forces: the tightening grip of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ever-present political turmoil within the European Union. Navigating this treacherous landscape presents a significant challenge for investors and traders alike.
The Fed Talks A Rising Tide Sinks All Boats
The primary driver of the Euro's woes is the aggressive monetary policy shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve. In response to surging inflation, the Fed has embarked on a series of interest rate hikes, making the U.S. dollar a more attractive proposition for investors. Higher interest rates in the U.S. entice investors to park their funds in dollar-denominated assets, leading to a stronger dollar. This, in turn, weakens the Euro through a simple principle: currency exchange rates operate on a relative basis. A stronger dollar makes the Euro comparatively less valuable.
The Fed's actions have a ripple effect across global financial markets. As the dollar strengthens, it attracts capital away from other currencies, including the Euro. This capital flight weakens the Euro's value and creates a vicious cycle. Additionally, a stronger dollar makes Eurozone exports more expensive on the global market, potentially dampening economic growth in the region.
European Internal Divisions Weigh Heavy
Adding to the Euro's woes are the ongoing political uncertainties within the European Union. The bloc faces several internal challenges, including:
• The Rise of Euroscepticism: Populist movements that question the benefits of European integration are gaining traction in some member states. This creates uncertainty about the future of the Eurozone and discourages investors from committing to the Euro.
• Disunity on Fiscal Policy: Member states often have differing government spending and taxation priorities. This can make it difficult for the European Central Bank (ECB), the Eurozone's central bank, to implement a cohesive monetary policy that benefits all members.
• The Ukraine War: The ongoing war in Ukraine has added a layer of economic and political instability to the region. The war's impact on energy prices and supply chains further dampens the Eurozone's economic prospects.
These internal divisions weaken the Euro's image as a stable and reliable currency. Investors are more likely to favor the dollar, which is seen as a safe haven during times of global uncertainty.
Steering Clear of the Dollar's Influence: Alternative Strategies
While the Euro's near-term outlook appears uncertain, traders looking to speculate on the currency should consider strategies that minimize the impact of the dollar's dominance. Here are some potential approaches:
• Focus on Eurozone Fundamentals: Analyze the economic health of individual Eurozone member states. Look for countries with strong economic fundamentals, such as low unemployment and healthy trade surpluses. Currencies of these countries may outperform the Euro itself.
• Play the Spread: Instead of directly trading the Euro against the dollar, consider trading it against other currencies within the Eurozone itself. This approach could benefit from internal economic disparities within the bloc.
• Focus on Long-Term Trends: The Eurozone, despite its challenges, remains a large and economically powerful region. Long-term investors may choose to hold the Euro based on their belief in the region's eventual economic recovery and political stability.
Conclusion: A Currency at a Crossroads
The Euro's current predicament highlights the complex interplay between global economic forces and regional political realities. While the dollar's strength and internal European divisions pose significant challenges, opportunities still exist for investors who can navigate these volatile conditions. By focusing on Eurozone fundamentals, exploring alternative trading strategies, and considering long-term trends, traders can potentially find success even as the Euro is in a conflicted battle.
Phoenix Motor Inc. (PEV) - Cup with Handle and Potential Bull FlTechnical Analysis:
Chart Patterns:
Phoenix Motor Inc. (PEV) is currently forming a Cup with Handle pattern, a bullish continuation signal. Additionally, a Bull Flag pattern may also be emerging.
Handle Formation: The handle of the Cup with Handle pattern is still forming, suggesting a potential breakout.
Bull Flag: The recent consolidation could also indicate a Bull Flag, another bullish signal.
Price Target: If a breakout occurs, the target price can be estimated based on the depth of the cup and the height of the flagpole.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss just below the handle's low or the flag's support to manage risk.
Fundamental Analysis:
Revenue (2022): $5.03M
Net Income (2022): -$4.17M
Market Cap: $26.81M
Debt: $4.78M
Cash & Equivalents: $436K
Current Ratio: 0.65
Quick Ratio: 0.34
P/S Ratio: 5.33
P/B Ratio: 3.23
Conclusion:
Both technical patterns suggest bullish momentum, making Phoenix Motor Inc. a potential buy candidate upon breakout confirmation. Fundamentally, the company shows promise but faces challenges with profitability and liquidity.
Investment Note:
Trading stocks inherently involves risks. Always consider your financial situation and investment goals before making decisions.
Dollar's Rally Wins Over Traders as Fed Decision LoomsThe U.S. dollar capped its strongest weekly run since February, buoyed by a shift in sentiment among traders as they awaited the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. After weeks of anticipation of potential interest rate cuts, the market witnessed a reversal as the greenback regained its allure.
This recent surge comes from a five-day winning streak for the Bloomberg Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies. The index rose by over 1% during this period, marking its most significant weekly advance since early 2024.
This bullish sentiment towards the dollar is a reversal from earlier market expectations. Previously, many traders had positioned themselves for a dovish turn from the Fed, anticipating potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of the year. This anticipation has contributed to a weakening of the dollar in recent months.
However, recent economic data and comments from Fed officials have cast doubt on the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. Upticks in inflation figures and a robust labor market have fueled speculation that the central bank might maintain its current hawkish stance for longer.
"The recent economic data has painted a somewhat different picture than what the market had initially expected," noted Sarah Lopez, a foreign exchange strategist at a leading investment bank. "Stronger inflation readings and a resilient job market suggest the Fed might need to stay the course on its tightening policy for a while longer."
This shift in expectations has prompted traders to reassess their positions. Many who had previously bet on a weaker dollar are now scrambling to cover their short positions, leading to a surge in demand for the greenback.
"We've seen a significant unwinding of short dollar positions in recent days," commented Michael Jones, a currency trader at a major financial institution. "The market is starting to price in the possibility that the Fed might hold off on rate cuts, and that's giving the dollar a much-needed boost."
"The Fed's language will be critical in determining the dollar's next move," said Lopez. "If the statement suggests a continued commitment to fighting inflation, the dollar could extend its gains. However, any dovish hints could trigger a renewed selloff."
Beyond the immediate impact of the Fed decision, the dollar's long-term prospects will depend on several factors, including the relative path of interest rates in the U.S. compared to other major economies.
"The dollar's strength will likely hinge on the divergence between U.S. monetary policy and that of other central banks," explained Jones. "If the Fed remains hawkish while other central banks stay accommodative, the dollar could continue to appreciate."
The recent resurgence of the dollar has implications for various asset classes. A stronger greenback can make U.S. exports more expensive and less competitive, potentially weighing on corporate profits. Conversely, it can make dollar-denominated assets, such as U.S. Treasuries, more attractive to foreign investors.
In conclusion, the dollar's recent rally underscores the dynamic nature of currency markets. As economic data and central bank pronouncements evolve, so too do investor expectations. The upcoming Fed decision is poised to be a pivotal moment for the dollar, with its outcome likely to shape the currency's trajectory in the coming months.
Gold Market Poised for Volatility Amid CPI and Fed Rate DecisionTechnical Analysis: Gold
The price reached our target from yesterday and still trades at the same zone.
Current Outlook:
The price is expected to reach 2302 and then push up again. Stability above 2321 would indicate a bullish trend. Generally, the price will consolidate between 2321 and 2302 until a breakout occurs.
Market Volatility:
Today's market will be influenced by the CPI release and the Federal Reserve's rate decision, leading to increased volatility.
Bullish Scenario:
If CPI is less than 3.4%, the price should break above 2321 to continue the bullish trend towards 2344 and 2357.
Bearish Scenario:
If CPI is more than 3.4%, the price may drop to 2302. Stability below 2311 for a 15-minute candle would indicate bearish pressure. A break below 2302 on a 4-hour candle close would target 2292 and potentially 2260.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 2302
- Resistance Levels: 2333, 2357, 2377
- Support Levels: 2302, 2292, 2260
Today's Expected Range:
The price is expected to move between the support at 2292 and the resistance at 2357.
Our previous Prediction:
SP500 Index Technical AnalysisSP500 Index Technical Analysis
The SP500 index appears poised for a retest of the 5320 level. A break below 5320 would likely lead the index to touch 5301.
Bullish Scenario:
For the bullish trend to continue, the price must stabilize above 5347. If it does, the next target will be 5375. Breaking through 5375 could lead to new record highs.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price trades below 5347, it indicates a potential drop towards 5320. A breach of 5320 could further lead to 5301. Stabilizing below 5301 would activate the bearish area, with the next target at 5260.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5347
- Resistance Levels: 5378, 5400, 5423
- Support Levels: 5320, 5301, 5260
Today's Expected Trading Range:
- Support: 5301
- Resistance: 5375
In summary, maintaining a position above 5347 favors a bullish outlook, aiming for higher resistance levels. Conversely, trading below 5347 suggests a bearish trend, with potential support targets at 5320 and 5301.
Dollar Loses Shine as US Economy Shows Signs of CoolingThe tide may be turning for the US dollar. After a period of strength, investors are growing less optimistic about the greenback as recent economic data suggests a slowdown in the US economy. This shift in sentiment is reflected in positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which shows a net short position on the dollar for the first time in six weeks.
Signs of a Cooling US Economy
Several factors are contributing to the cooling sentiment on the dollar. Recent economic reports have indicated a potential slowdown in the US. Growth may be decelerating after a strong 2023, with factors like inflation and rising interest rates potentially impacting consumer spending and business investment.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has embarked on a series of interest rate hikes to combat inflation. While these hikes are intended to curb inflation, they can also have a dampening effect on economic activity. Businesses may be hesitant to borrow and invest, and consumers may tighten their belts as borrowing costs rise.
CFTC Data Reveals Shift in Investor Positioning
The CFTC data provides valuable insights into investor sentiment on the foreign exchange market. The data tracks the net long or short positions held by leveraged funds, which include hedge funds and other large speculators, and asset managers.
According to the latest CFTC data, leveraged funds still held some net long positions on the dollar last week. However, this bullishness was outweighed by a significant increase in net short positions held by asset managers. This shift in positioning resulted in a combined net short position of $5.36 billion as of May 21st, compared to a net long position of $2.02 billion just a week earlier.
Market Implications of the Dollar's Decline
A weaker dollar can have several implications for the global economy. It can make US exports more competitive, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers. Conversely, imports into the US become more expensive. This can potentially lead to higher inflation in the US as the cost of imported goods increases.
A weaker dollar can also impact other currencies. If investors lose confidence in the US economy, they may seek refuge in other safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc. This could lead to a strengthening of these currencies relative to the dollar.
The Road Ahead: Volatility and Data Dependence
Analysts expect currency positioning to remain volatile in the near term. The direction of the dollar will likely hinge on incoming US economic data. Strong economic data could reignite bullish sentiment on the dollar, while further signs of a slowdown could exacerbate the recent decline.
The FOMC's monetary policy decisions will also be closely watched. If the Fed signals a more aggressive pace of rate hikes to combat inflation, the dollar could find support. However, if the Fed slows down the pace of hikes or even starts cutting rates in the future, as some analysts predict, the dollar could weaken further.
Conclusion
The recent decline in bullish sentiment on the dollar reflects growing concerns about the health of the US economy. The CFTC data highlights a shift in investor positioning, with a net short position emerging for the first time in six weeks. The future direction of the dollar remains uncertain and will depend on the trajectory of the US economy and the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
🚨$DJT: It's Not Over Part 2! Update! Hey everyone,
As mentioned earlier, DJ:DJT showed potential for a bullish move with a weekly crossover above the monthly, signaling strength in the coming weeks/month. On Friday, DJT achieved the weekly crossover over the monthly for the first time! When MTTSA indicators crossover to the upside, it indicates a significant price acceleration. For instance, in January, when the hourly crossed over the monthly, the price surged by approximately 100%. Subsequently, when the daily followed suit, the stock experienced another robust uptrend.
Our initial price target stands at $57. We anticipate some resistance at this level, although the stock has already breached the 0.236 and tested the 0.382 levels. A decisive breakthrough from here would likely lead to tests of the 0.5 and eventually the 0.618 levels.
It's worth noting that there's a gap to be filled around $61.
Metric Pro indicator is suggesting that liquidity is very good and price will continue to the upside.
In conclusion, we're keeping an eye on the daily for support, with significant support levels at the weekly and monthly. It turns out, the markets don't really care about your thoughts and feelings because the algorithm is pointing a bullish run very soon. Stay tuned!
Shorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker DollarShorting DXY: A Calculated Gamble on a Weaker Dollar, But Beware the Dragons
The DXY, or US Dollar Index, measures the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies. With rising global tensions and a potential shift in global power dynamics, the question lingers: is it time to short the DXY, betting on a weakening dollar? Let's explore the arguments for and against this strategy.
The Case for Shorting DXY: A Multi-Pronged Approach
• America's Shrinking Lead: The US, while still a dominant economic force, faces challenges. Its manufacturing base has shrunk, its national debt is ballooning, and infrastructure crumbles. These factors could erode confidence in the dollar's long-term stability.
• The Rise of the Rest: China's economic power is undeniable. The yuan's internationalization efforts are gaining traction, potentially chipping away at the dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency. Other economies like the Eurozone are also maturing, offering alternatives.
• A Concerted Effort: Imagine a scenario where the US's major allies, concerned about American dominance, decide to weaken the dollar. This could involve measures like central banks diversifying reserves away from the US or pegging their currencies to a basket that excludes the dollar. While a hypothetical scenario, it can't be entirely dismissed.
China: The Dragon in the Room
China's displeasure with a weakening dollar is a significant risk factor. A weaker dollar makes Chinese exports more expensive, hindering their economic growth. China holds a significant amount of US Treasuries, and a devalued dollar would erode the value of those holdings. This could lead to China dumping US Treasuries, further weakening the dollar in a vicious cycle.
Beyond China: Other Considerations
• US Response: The US Federal Reserve has tools at its disposal to counter a weakening dollar. Raising interest rates, for instance, could entice investors back to the dollar for higher yields.
• Global Instability: A devalued dollar could create global economic turmoil as countries scramble to adjust exchange rates and inflation spikes. This could be particularly damaging for developing economies.
• Unpredictable Markets: Shorting any asset is inherently risky, and the currency market is especially volatile. Unforeseen events can drastically alter currency valuations.
So, Should You Short DXY?
The decision to short DXY depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals. Here's a breakdown:
• For Aggressive Investors: If you believe in a long-term decline of the US dollar and have a high tolerance for risk, shorting DXY could be a potential strategy. However, careful risk management is crucial.
• For Cautious Investors: The potential consequences of a weakening dollar, particularly China's reaction, are significant. It might be wiser to stick with less volatile investments or consider options strategies that limit your downside risk.
Alternative Strategies
Instead of shorting DXY directly, consider these alternatives:
• Invest in a Diversified Currency Basket: Spread your risk by investing in a basket of major currencies, potentially benefiting from a weakening dollar while mitigating some of the risk.
• Look to Emerging Markets: If you believe in the rise of other economic powers, consider investing in their currencies or stocks poised to benefit from a weaker dollar.
The Final Bite
The future of the US dollar is uncertain. A combination of factors could lead to its decline. However, the potential consequences, particularly China's response, are significant risks to consider. Carefully weigh the arguments before taking a short position on DXY. Remember, diversification and a measured approach are key in navigating the ever-fluctuating currency markets.
China bottom vs USA | FXI vs SPXWe will continue to beat our fists on the table that Asia has bottomed vs US equities.
simple chart here. FXI (China large cap index) vs SP500
RSI popping out of oversold on the 2M with a nice bull div.
This is setting up for a multi year move. Likely at least the remainder of the decade.
A soft landing is unlikely to materializeThe SPX has rallied approximately 3.5% since its lows on 19th April 2024 and well into the two-day FOMC meeting that kicks off today. In line with general market expectations, we do not anticipate any change to the central bank’s monetary policy, and just like on previous occasions, we expect Jerome Powell to reiterate the FED’s commitment to fighting inflation during his speech at the press conference tomorrow. The chairman is likely to praise the economy for its resilience and make remarks about the historically strong labor market in spite of financial tightening. In addition to that, Jerome Powell is probably going to outline challenges the FED faces, most notably accelerating inflation, which became a topic of discussion following the weakness in the stock market after the last print showed inflation rose for the second consecutive month. This fact could lead to his reluctance to discuss the central bank’s move toward easing, which in turn could lead to a resurgence in volatility and weakness in stocks. By keeping interest rates higher for longer, the FED risks constructing a recession on its own, which has been repeatedly a case in history. Therefore, we continue to hold the opinion that a soft landing will not materialize. Instead, signs of recession will become even more apparent. With that said, we believe there is a high chance for a major repricing event to take place in 2024.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of the SPX and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the 20-day SMA. Now, the 50-day SMA and the price's ability to break through it will be in focus. If the price fails, it will be worrisome.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Amazon delivers results for the first quarterAmazon announced its earnings for the first quarter of 2024 yesterday after the closing bell. The company reported net sales worth $143.3 billion, marking a 13% YoY increase, and net income of $10.4 billion, up 225% YoY. Operating income rose to $15.3 billion, representing a growth of 218% YoY, with the AWS segment contributing $9.4 billion to the figure and accounting for 62% of the total operating income. In addition, the company’s operating cash flow increased by 82% to $99.1 billion for the trailing twelve months, compared with $54.3 billion for the trailing twelve months ended by 31st March 2023. These results topped the estimates, and the company’s shares slightly soared in the aftermarket.
Net sales = $143.3 billion (13% YoY) vs. $127.4 billion in 1Q23
Net income = $10.4 billion (225% YoY) vs. $3.2 billion in 1Q23
Operating income = $15.3 billion (218% YoY) vs. $4.8 billion in 1Q23
Additional information:
Amazon sales in North America rose by 12% YoY.
International sales grew 9.6% YoY.
Sales within the AWS segment increased by 17% YoY.
Sales within Amazon’s advertisement unit grew by 24% YoY.
Forward guidance
Net sales for the second quarter of 2024 are expected to fall between $144 billion and $149 billion, representing a growth between 7% and 11% compared with the second quarter of 2023. Operating income is expected to be between $10 billion and $14 billion, compared with $7.7 billion in the second quarter of 2023.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
JASMY (JASMY)Arrays, Moving Average and High label makes same view. This kind of looks like an on chart DMI in a way. roughtdraft indicator progress...
the lines are getting are bunched together now.
I see jasmy as the freedom to protect ideas, ideas in business, ideas in one's own personal life, an anti-communist statement of freedom.
04/27/2024 - Watchlist, Stocks, Crypto - Video Idea - TA ChartsWatchlist, Stocks Indexes, Bitcoin, Crypto TA Charts by @NoFomoCharts
00:25 Watchlist and News
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Watchlist, SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM.
TOTAL, Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Halving History, ETH/usdt, BNB/usdt, SOL/usdt, ADA/usdt, XRP/usdt.
04/27/2024, 08:00PM EST Video Idea.
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Mighty Dollar Roars Back: A Wake-Up Call for Global MarkeThe financial markets of 2024 have witnessed a surprising resurgence: the unwavering strength of the US dollar. After predictions of a decline at the year's outset, the greenback has defied expectations, surging over 4% according to the Bloomberg dollar index. This unexpected power play by the dollar serves as a stark wake-up call for investors around the globe, forcing a reassessment of global economic dynamics.
Several factors are fueling the dollar's dominance:
• Resilient US Economy: Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown, the US economy has displayed remarkable strength. Robust economic data, coupled with persistent inflation, has prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. Rising interest rates in the US make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the currency.
• US Exceptionalism Narrative: The perception of the US as a safe haven in a world riddled with geopolitical uncertainties is bolstering the dollar's appeal. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine, are driving investors towards reliable and stable economies. The relative stability of the US, compared to global turmoil, strengthens the dollar's position as a go-to currency during times of crisis.
• Sticky Inflation: The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is another key driver of dollar strength. The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates, while potentially slowing economic growth, is seen as a necessary step to curb inflation. This hawkish stance stands in stark contrast to the dovish policies of central banks in other major economies, like the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which continues to maintain ultra-low interest rates. This divergence in monetary policy further strengthens the dollar's relative appeal.
The Ripple Effects
The resurgent dollar has significant ramifications for global markets:
• Currency Devaluation: A stronger dollar puts downward pressure on other currencies. This can make imports into the US cheaper but exports from the US more expensive, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. Emerging market economies, particularly those heavily reliant on foreign capital, could face currency depreciation and capital outflows.
• Equity Market Volatility: The rising dollar can create headwinds for equity markets outside the US. As the dollar strengthens, foreign investments become less attractive, potentially leading to capital repatriation and reduced liquidity in other markets. This could lead to increased volatility in global stock markets.
• Commodities Market Impact: A strong dollar generally translates to lower commodity prices. This is because most commodities are priced in US dollars, so a stronger dollar makes them relatively more expensive for holders of other currencies. This could impact countries heavily reliant on commodity exports.
The Road Ahead
The future trajectory of the dollar remains uncertain. The path of US interest rates, the evolution of global economic conditions, and the persistence of geopolitical tensions will all be crucial factors shaping the dollar's strength.
The current scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. A strong dollar can create opportunities in US assets but necessitates careful portfolio diversification to mitigate currency risks. The evolving global landscape demands close monitoring and a nimble investment strategy to navigate the volatility.
The resurgent dollar serves as a potent reminder of the US economy's enduring strength and its role as a global anchor currency. As the world grapples with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the dollar's reign is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, demanding a recalibration of global investment strategies.
Fed Higher-for-Longer Strategy: Strong Dollar SqueezeThe Fed's Higher-for-Longer Strategy: A Strong Dollar Squeezes Markets
The Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy is pushing the U.S. dollar to its limits. Chair Jerome Powell's recent pronouncements leave little doubt: rate cuts won't be coming soon. This strong dollar is creating a ripple effect across global markets, leaving other central banks and investors struggling to keep pace.
The "higher-for-longer" strategy refers to the Fed's intention to maintain elevated interest rates for a sustained period. This is a critical tool for combating inflation, which remains a top concern for the U.S. economy. By raising interest rates, the Fed discourages borrowing and investment, thereby dampening economic activity and ultimately slowing inflation.
However, this approach comes at a cost. A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and foreign imports cheaper. This can hurt American businesses competing overseas and widen the U.S. trade deficit. Additionally, a surging dollar makes it more expensive for other countries to service their dollar-denominated debt.
The impact is already being felt globally. Here's a breakdown of the key challenges:
• Market Squeeze: Higher U.S. interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors. This entices capital to flow out of emerging markets and other economies, putting downward pressure on their currencies and stock markets. These economies become more vulnerable to financial instability as capital flight weakens their local markets.
• Central Bank Dilemma: Other central banks are caught in a bind. They may want to raise rates to combat inflation in their own economies, but doing so could further strengthen the dollar relative to their currencies. This exacerbates the problems mentioned above and makes it difficult for them to achieve their desired economic goals.
• Debt Sustainability: Countries with large amounts of dollar-denominated debt face a growing burden. As the dollar strengthens, it becomes more expensive for them to service their debt, potentially leading to defaults and financial crises.
Despite these challenges, the Fed is unlikely to deviate from its course anytime soon. Powell has emphasized the need to bring inflation under control, even if it means sacrificing some economic growth. This unwavering commitment to taming inflation strengthens the dollar further, potentially leading to a prolonged period of global economic strain.
However, there are some potential mitigating factors:
• Weakening Dollar: The dollar's strength may not be sustainable in the long run. If the Fed eventually signals a pause in rate hikes, or if inflation shows signs of receding, the dollar could weaken. This would provide some relief to other economies.
• Global Cooperation: International cooperation between central banks could help to ease the pressure on global markets. By coordinating their policies, central banks could find a way to address inflation without creating excessive currency volatility.
The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term effects of the Fed's policy. While the strong dollar offers some advantages for the U.S. economy, the potential for global economic instability cannot be ignored. The Fed's navigation of this complex situation will be critical in ensuring a smooth landing for the U.S. and the global economy as a whole.
Emerging Markets Struggle as the Mighty Dollar FlexesThe recent strength of the US dollar is posing a significant challenge for emerging markets around the world. Their currencies are weakening, creating a ripple effect across their economies. This article explores the reasons behind the dollar's dominance, the impact on emerging markets, and potential policy responses.
A Rising Dollar: The Driving Forces
The US dollar has been on a tear in recent months, appreciating against most major currencies. This surge can be attributed to several factors, including:
• US Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation are attracting investors seeking higher returns on dollar-denominated assets. This increased demand strengthens the dollar.
• Global Economic Uncertainty: As concerns about a global economic slowdown grow, investors flock to the perceived safety of the US dollar, seen as a safe haven asset during times of turmoil.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened tensions between the US and China are further fueling risk aversion, pushing investors towards the dollar.
Emerging Markets Under Pressure
The rise of the US dollar presents a major headache for emerging markets. Weakening local currencies lead to several problems:
• Imported Inflation: When the local currency weakens, the cost of imported goods rises. This can exacerbate inflation in emerging markets, which are already grappling with rising prices due to global supply chain disruptions.
• Debt Burden: Many emerging market economies have significant dollar-denominated debt. A weaker local currency increases the cost of servicing this debt, putting a strain on government finances.
• Capital Flight: The strengthening dollar can trigger capital outflows from emerging markets as investors seek better returns elsewhere. This can lead to currency depreciation and hinder economic growth.
Policy Responses: Verbal Intervention and Beyond
Emerging markets are not sitting idly by as their currencies weaken. Several are exploring policy options to counter the dollar's might:
• Verbal Intervention: Central banks in some emerging markets, like Malaysia, have resorted to verbal intervention, signaling their commitment to supporting their currencies. However, this approach has limited long-term effectiveness.
• Interest Rate Hikes: Some central banks, such as Brazil, are considering raising interest rates to attract capital inflows and stabilize their currencies. However, this risks slowing down economic growth.
• Currency Intervention: Central banks may intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars and buying local currency to prop it up. This approach can be expensive and depletes foreign exchange reserves.
JPMorgan and ANZ Weigh In: The Need for More Tools
Financial institutions are also analyzing the situation. JPMorgan Asset Management suggests that more verbal intervention may be necessary from emerging markets to manage volatility. However, analysts at ANZ bank believe that China, a major emerging market with significant influence, may need to deploy a wider range of tools, potentially including capital controls, to limit the depreciation of its currency, the yuan.
Looking Ahead: A Delicate Balancing Act
The coming months will be critical for emerging markets. Central banks face a delicate balancing act, trying to tame inflation without stifling economic growth. The strength of the US dollar will be a major factor influencing their decisions. The ability of emerging markets to navigate this challenging environment will have a significant impact on the global economic outlook.
DXY UP!!Be ready to start the upward movement in the dollar index!!!
There are two scenarios for climbing, either starting from the first yellow zone or from the second zone
ethereum ETH (MACD)The reason MACD is not so reliable even with blue chip analysis; as seen in the graph the rising movement in the MACD indicator leads the buyer to think the price is going up and at the same time using a measuring stick it had been 50 days since the last price increase, instead of going positive like the MACD and timeline would lead one to think, the price went down really hard. A bad sign for the 100 day moving average is to see the price fall hard like Ethereum did at the 50 day.
TESLA Downtrend/dangerous.
The price came on an LT mount.
A Wolfe wave is emerging.
TP No. 1 is statistically point 4.
Make your own opinion based on your setups/strategies.
