DOW JONES SCENARIOSHello
for DJ is now following its uptrend corridor but when it breaks down this red corridor it will at least run to that midline of the yellow corridor, so in this case if this scenario wont happend you can guide yourself by keeping eys on my drawings on my chart.
NB: just be simple
USA
The Relationship Between Dollar Dominance, Debt, and Deficits
The US dollar's position as the world's reserve currency grants the United States a unique set of economic advantages and challenges. This "exorbitant privilege," as it's often called, significantly influences the nation's ability to manage its debt and deficits. Understanding this complex relationship is crucial for comprehending the dynamics of the global financial system and the US economy's position within it.
Dollar Dominance: A Foundation of Economic Power
The dollar's status as the primary reserve currency means that it is widely held by central banks, international institutions, and businesses worldwide. This widespread acceptance creates consistent demand for dollar-denominated assets, particularly US Treasury bonds. This demand is a key factor in allowing the US government to finance its debt at relatively low-interest rates. If the US were to borrow in another currency, or if global demand for its debt were significantly lower, the cost of borrowing would likely increase, making it more expensive to finance government spending.
This dominance also simplifies international trade for US businesses. Because the dollar is the standard currency for many global transactions, US companies can conduct business with reduced exchange rate risks and transaction costs. This ease of trade strengthens the US position in the global economy and contributes to its overall economic power.
Debt and Deficits: The Fiscal Realities
Government debt represents the accumulation of past budget deficits. A budget deficit occurs when government spending exceeds its revenue in a given fiscal year. These deficits require the government to borrow money, primarily by issuing Treasury bonds, which then contribute to the overall national debt.
While deficits can be used strategically to stimulate the economy during downturns or to fund essential public services, persistent and large deficits can lead to a growing national debt. A high debt level can have several potential consequences, including higher interest payments on the debt, reduced fiscal flexibility to respond to future economic crises, and potential inflationary pressures.
The Interplay: Dollar Dominance and Fiscal Policy
The relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is complex and multifaceted. The ability to borrow at lower costs due to the dollar's reserve currency status can, in some ways, lessen the immediate pressure to address budget imbalances. The lower interest rates make it less painful in the short term to finance deficits, potentially leading to a greater accumulation of debt over time.
However, it's crucial to understand that dollar dominance does not directly cause deficits. Deficits are a result of fiscal policy decisions—specifically, decisions about government spending and taxation. Dollar dominance merely affects the cost of financing those decisions. A government could run deficits regardless of its currency's global status, but the financial implications would likely be significantly different.
One could argue that the "exorbitant privilege" afforded by dollar dominance creates a moral hazard. Knowing that borrowing costs are relatively low could incentivize policymakers to engage in more expansive fiscal policies than they might otherwise pursue. This can lead to a situation where the long-term consequences of debt accumulation are downplayed in favor of short-term political or economic gains.
Potential Challenges to Dollar Dominance
While the dollar has maintained its dominant position for decades, several factors could potentially challenge its future status. The rise of other economic powers, the development of alternative reserve currencies, and shifts in global trade patterns are all potential threats.
For example, the increasing economic influence of countries like China has led to discussions about the potential for the renminbi to become a more prominent player in the global financial system. However, for a currency to achieve reserve status, it requires deep and liquid financial markets, strong institutions, and widespread trust in the issuing country's economic and political stability. These are factors that have contributed to the dollar's strength and are not easily replicated.
Furthermore, the emergence of new technologies, such as cryptocurrencies and digital payment systems, could potentially disrupt traditional financial flows and challenge the existing currency hierarchy. However, these technologies are still relatively new and face regulatory and adoption hurdles before they could pose a significant threat to the dollar's dominance.
Maintaining the Dollar's Strength
Maintaining the dollar's strength and its reserve currency status is a complex undertaking. It requires a combination of sound economic policies, strong institutions, and a commitment to maintaining open and transparent financial markets.
Sustainable fiscal policies are essential. While dollar dominance provides some flexibility, persistently large deficits and a rapidly growing national debt could eventually erode confidence in the dollar and its long-term value. This could lead to a decrease in demand for dollar-denominated assets, potentially increasing borrowing costs and weakening the dollar's global position.
In conclusion, the relationship between dollar dominance, debt, and deficits is a critical aspect of the US and global economies. While the dollar's reserve currency status provides significant advantages in financing government spending and facilitating international trade, it also presents challenges in managing fiscal policy. Maintaining the dollar's strength requires a balanced approach that prioritizes sound economic management and recognizes the complex interplay between these crucial economic factors.
jasmy (JASMY) "INDICATIONS"The BBTrend indicator reveals whether the price is overbought or oversold. Red is too low "oversold" and green is too high "overbought." In this case Jasmy is quite neutral on that fact.
The Yellow stepped line is the 100 Moving Average. When the 100 MA is smoothing out and rounding over this is a sign of the price reversing. As you can see the steps are large and there is no smoothing happening. Also with my 2x100 indicator the waves run between the two lines like a MACD with the 100MA line on top for positive growth and when the smooth green line crosses over the stepped line this is a sign of a reversal as well. As you can see the recent price increase is therefore sturdy based on these two indications.
JASMY (JASMY) "True Path"Since creating my indicator months ago I have never seen any crypto project pass direcrtly through the two dotted blue lines until now with Jasmy today. I referred to the center of the two lines as the black hole of which has too much energy for any crxyptocurrency including Bitcoin and Ethereum to ever cross directly through the center. Quite interesting.
"A Strong Setup for Bitcoin's Surge to $110K NEXTBitcoin is trading around $96,000, with strong indicators pointing toward a potential surge to $110K. The cryptocurrency’s recent price action has captivated market watchers, as it consolidates within a narrow range below the $110,000 threshold.
Analysts view this consolidation phase, between $95,000 and $98,000, as a necessary breather following a major rally. It provides the market with time to stabilize before its next potential breakout.
**Consolidation or the calm before the storm?**
On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s reduced volatility highlights market indecision. Yet, technical indicators suggest a bullish undercurrent. The moving averages reveal a golden cross pattern, with the 50-day moving average staying well above the 200-day average—a strong signal of sustained bullish momentum.
With the stage set for a decisive move, Bitcoin’s next steps could determine its trajectory toward the $110K mark.
LINK ON BIO FOR ALL INFO
DXY: High-Probability Retracement SetupThe DXY has been forming higher highs, signaling bullish momentum. Currently, the market appears to be making a short-term retracement into a daily bullish order block (OB) at 105.174, which aligns with a high-probability setup, further supported by a fair value gap (FVG) just above it.
Confirmation of this retracement transitioning into expansion will occur if a daily candle taps into the OB and closes above the PD array. If this scenario unfolds, the next target is the buy-side liquidity (BSL) at 108.060, marking a significant level for potential upside momentum.
Keep an eye on the daily closures for validation, and always align entries with confluences for optimal risk management.
S&P 500 Financials - Daily in logHello community,
A short analysis of the SP500 Finance index.
For this, I use regression lines with two time units, short and medium.
The trend is bullish but we are at the top of the medium-term and short-term channel.
A retracement may be desirable.
Make your own opinion before placing an order.
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#DXY 1W#DXY 1W;
The Dollar, which has managed to gradually accumulate until today with the falling trend resistance in October 2022, is preparing to move upwards again.
Aside from the fact that it has tested the FVG area 2 times, we will soon find out if it will be successful in its 3rd attempt.
It would not be a surprise to see a rise up to 108-109 levels. If it exceeds these levels, the falling trend (red) above may act as resistance again.
SPX Ratio on Stock600Hello,
A little comparison between two markets, the SP500 and the Stock600.
I made a little ratio to see where the money is going!
The result is clear, the currency is going to the USA and not to old Europe.
Does Europe still have a future, with 27 countries!
Your opinion interests me.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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XAUUSD Now we looking at XAUUSD buy, till 2647,8 zone. Then CPI we expecting Gold sell, continuing with the the market structure, if the following is respected:
Looking at confluence
> 2647,8 is a major resistance zone.
> looking at 3rd touch, on the trend line
> then bearish candlestick formation on 2647,8 zone.
> buy fake out on 2647,8
Walmart in weeklyHello,
A quick look at the action of the famous US channel.
My algo, signals me a price higher than 41% on its "Price Action".
What bothers me a little is the acceleration marked with the yellow arrow on the graph.
The blue line is the right price according to my algo.
What do you think?
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Opportunity? A fall in the USD dominance is coming. BRICs can potentially challenge the USD. Money being linked back to a hard asset appears on deck whether it be BTC/Gold/Silver. This bodes well for all North American jurisdiction gold and silver resource companies. Strikepoint has huge potential in massive Walker Lane, Nevada property with an interesting private partner located at the center. As well as two high grade assets in the legendary Golden Triangle.
U.S. Dollar IndexHello everyone,
A quick look at the DXY index.
I had fun drawing a Fibonacci retracement, we can see that the levels are well respected.
It's up to you to agree, but the graph is there.
Make your own opinion, before placing an order.
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VIX for a blowout Another VIX post which have been received well in the past.
SPX is due for a huge correction and I think this will begin today, alongside all other major indices.
We see a Cup & Handle formation in the making and I believe that this is soon to be confirmed.
It is also resting on a historical trend line as well as various other resistance related metrics.
Target is very conservative with a lot of room to go past the highs in August. Re asses as this moves.
TSLA to $600Ahh finally we have new president. With Trump as a president Elon Musk will get financial position in goverment and Trump fully supports him.
I do expect the TSLA price to do something way more insane than $600. I'm expecting from TSLA moves similar to NVDA or some of the ".com" bubble stocks.
We're pre-rich.
Short term analysis of Ethereum chartIn the 4-hour time frame, the green box is marked, which can be a suitable range for buying, around the price of $2,300 to $2,350. This analysis is suitable for those who trade in the short term, by the way, this is an analysis and no one from the future. 100% no news.
I suggest you follow me to find the right places to buy
be successful and profitable
Tesla in daily logHello community,
A quick analysis of Elon Musk's action.
D-Day for him with the American election.
The market has granted him 6 red candles!
Doing politics and managing companies, I wonder if it's a good idea.
American citizen at the polls, your destiny is in your hands.
Courage, the world is watching you, American First!
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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BRK.B ratio to SPX daily.Hello community,
I had fun doing the ratio between Warren Buffett's stock and the SP500 via the SPX, since the beginning of the year.
The result on the graph, i.e. 5.11% in favor of Warren.
Grandpa Warren, still holds the road, despite his 94 years.
Experience and wisdom have struck again.
Bravo the artist.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Bank of America (daily - log )Hello community,
Following the publication of Warren Buffet's results, I looked at the Bank of America stock.
Since the beginning of the year, performance 28%
Why did you sell the stock, there must be a reason that I don't know.
Upward trend, I put the 3 accumulation zones on the chart.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (daily - log)Hello community,
Small daily analysis in log.
The trend is bullish, we have a gap lately that should be filled logically.
I have indicated on the graph the three accumulation zones.
Graphically, it's beautiful.
We are at the bottom of the regression line channel, we will have to watch that it does not break down.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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Bitcoin is going to 63k???!!!Hey guys!
I know it's weekends, but some of the markets are working today and I decide to talk about current BTC position.
So, we're making this cool off, which is also almost full A correctional wave and in 2 days we have US elections, which can be really affective.
Plus the volumes have convergence with the movement RSI is still uncertain, and MA cross on 4H is bearish.
For me, we could easily fulfill the C wave and after we can find the next enter point.
Your thoughts? How elections will influence?