Usa500
Sp500 idea Key points:
- DJY retesting after breakout
- Nasdaq trading at the bottom of a bullish flag
SP500;
if DJY confirms a down trend after retesting resistance at the breakout level we might see spx500 being dragged down otherwise this will bring Sp500 up to retest 200EMA again
S&P 500 iNDEX First time !!Hello friends, its mine first view on s&p500 index,
This is a clear Uptrend. The down arrows point to the lower highs of the trend while the up arrows point to the lower lows. The Uptrend turns into a Downtrend when price makes and confirms a higher low at the upper right side of the chart. That higher low is only confirmed by the following move Downward. They can be complementary. If you come to the same conclusion by doing two different types of analysis you will have much more confidence when taking a trade.
Thanks
SP500 short outlook 🦐The market after a rise to the upside can't make new fresh highs.
Covid instability on USA company make the future outlook not clear and the market start to lose the positive momentum.
Price hit and EMA 200 and got rejected and now if the price will manage to break the structure in blue we could look for a nice short position according with our signal with the target to the next strong support level around 2600 area.
SPX 500 LONG TERM, IS TREND YOUR FRIEND?No question about the ability to Ms. FED to flood the market with liquidity coming from thin air... but that's a long success story.
Even his Mr. the President had his impact with his behavior that at least is not so predictable.
Now what? the rebound has gone very far, both SP and NASD even more.
Will we be bearish? NO
Will we be cautious? YES
The rebound went up a bit too fast and the area 2939-3024 is a strong resistance... what about a rising wedge?
Support @2850...don't wait to sell if you see it broken and get back @2700.
Marco
GILD - Bullish tunnel + triangle - buy at the bottomThe chart explains it all.
the market keeps raising against all odds in the middle of this world pandemic, ignoring all data and indicators... Why shorting then?
Buy the bottom of the tunnel sell at mid range before it gets to the danger zone and bounce back again
key points;
- price at the bottom of the tunnel
- price riding the EMA 50
- good buying risk reward
This will keep bouncing until it completes the triangle and break free
A NEW IDEA ON LEVERAGED INVERSE ETF SQQQSQQQ goes up when the market goes down . Since this is a leveraged ETF, the position size is one-third of your normal position. The recommended position size is up to 7% of full core position size, but reduce it based on your own risk preference.
This is suitable only for super aggressive experienced investors because the risk of loss is high but rewards are also high.
This is a short term trade. The buy zone is $19 to $20.27. it is trading at $20.27 as of this writing. Stop zone is $17.11 to $18.23. The first target zone is $24 to $25.68. The second target zone is $27 to $32.
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200,000 Deaths
Dr. Fauci says there may be 100,000 to 200,000 American deaths due to coronavirus.
The stock market is discounting (assuming) less than 25,000 deaths.
The 80% probability of the 'mother of support' zones holding that we have been sharing with you is based on the model at The Arora Report that is assuming 100,000 - 150,000 deaths.
Trump Relents
Trump has relented on opening the country by Easter. He has extended social distancing to April 30.
Science May Triumph
At one time futures were down 4%. A lot of buying is coming in on potential good news on the science front.
We all want coronavirus to end. It is the government’s job to spin the reality to keep the morale of the country up. It is the prudent investor’s job to discern the truth. Science may triumph and cause the stock market to bottom.
Where Is The Bottom?
The mother of support zones has 80% probability of holding – this along with RSI should be the main reference points to look for a bottom. There is simply too much optimism in the stock market and in many cases investors are buying without doing research. Here are a few examples:
- Abbott Laboratories (ABT) has come up with a coronavirus test that takes five minutes. The revenues from coronavirus test will dwarf against the revenues Abbott is likely to lose due to issues related to coronavirus. Investors are running up the stock.
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is making great progress on a coronavirus vaccine. Johnson & Johnson is likely to sell the vaccine at cost. This will have no material increase in earnings yet investors are running up the stock.
- General Motors (GM) will make ventilators. General Motors is selling them at cost. Again this will have no impact on earnings yet investors have run up the stock on the news.
- Medtronic (MDT) makes ventilators but ventilators are a very small portion of its business. At the same time, Medtronic is suffering because its sales are likely to drop due to postponement of none essential surgeries. Without understanding the whole picture investors have run up the stock.
The foregoing shows that there is simply too much optimism and investors are buying without doing research. In my over 30 years, I have never seen a bottom when investors behave this way.
Why the S&P 500 goes down much further.Welcome to my Analysis of the S&P 500.
First of all, I want to clear some misunderstandings of why it didn't crash at the beginning and why this crash is linked to the coronavirus.
The coronavirus started spreading in China, the biggest source of our supply. Since the spreading was so rapidly, they needed to quarantine and stop production which cuts our supply chain.
After that, big companies cant produce and make sales which is bad for the holders of the company.
The news hit worldwide at the end of January and as you can see, the markets started to crash just because of that (1). So why did it pumped back to new highs?
Well, that's because the Fed prints and pumps fiat into the markets to avoid a crisis. The economy is one of the biggest if not the biggest part of the stabilization of the country.
That's why the state needs to counter a crash at all costs. But printing and pumping only works short term and that's why it is crashing massively currently.
At (1) you can see that many entities exit positions in fear of the coronavirus. At (2) you can see the fed pumping printed money in the market to prevent a major crash that takes everything with it but only works short term.
After that, the fed loses against the shorts and a massive crash occurs.
Why will it go much further down?
The biggest problem in this crisis now is that the USA is not testing people for corona. A majority of the people won't test by its own initiative since it costs a fortune to do that.
That's why the statistics of the infected people in the USA are not truthful. Because of bad transparency, people keep spreading the disease even more.
At one point, many Americans realize that there are far more cases in the USA then stated. Many quarantines will be set up and people won't be able to work.
This conducts an even further crash. Also, China started its production again because of the fear of an even worse economic collapse. This, on the one hand, is something positive for the market short term, but on the other hand, spreading the disease even more which of course is negative as well.
Dot.Com 2.0 Bubble Relation of Dot.Com 1.0 + Dot.Com 2.0
Which factors caused this gain?
- Main factor: US/EU/CHINA massive quantitative easing - backward to 2009 after crisis.
- Globalisation
- Inflation
Problems:
- Hyperinfaltion/deflation
- Giant US state deficit
- Giant FED balance sheet
- Parabolic stock gains out of any relation
Solution:
- Ongoing endless injection of US/EU/CHINA
- World biggest recession after WWI+II
- Flash-Crash
- Long run economic downturn
FOOL PROOF S&P500 INVESTMENT STRATEGY!A one time investment for 11 years of (on average 14%)
-This strategy uses simple indicators to determine an entry which indicate trend reversal-- such as MACD and the fact that the 2008 credit crisis crash was likely to fall to previous resistance (dot com crash)
-Safe strategy, you're essentially betting on the American Economy and when you're at rock bottom it's more likely to go up than a full economic collapse in western society.
-This is ofcourse hypothetical but when the next crash hits, this is a good guide to follow.
-Could be diversified with FTSE100 and other economically prosperous nations' indexes.
S&P500 Historical returns calculator was used in the process of this chart, these can be found on google.
ARE WE IN A MARKET BUBBLE? HOW FAR WILL #SPX500 WILL GO?I'm sorry to report that even Isaac Newton has already fallen into a market bubble.
He decided to invest in South Sea Company shares, but at one point realized the speculative nature of the boom, selling his £7,000 worth of shares.
However, he couldn't cope with the pressure of seeing other people get rich while he was left out, which forced him to buy back the shares, but already at the top of the listings, taking a £20,000 loss.
When asked why he could not predict the bubble, he replied: "I can calculate the movement of celestial bodies, but not the madness of people.
Story Meaning: People's imaginary greed is so persuasive as to deceive Isaac Newton.
But what will happen with USA #STOCKS #SPX500 ?
Is there really a bubble?
Actually, USA is going through a huge euphoria of scales never seen before, because of the changes that have already occurred this year, and those to come.
The fact is that the USA has a lot of potentials, and can take off at a much higher rate if it continues to improve its management.
But there is a prospect of profit and profit itself, so what happens when investors realize that profit will come, but it hasn't yet?
Well, that's the moment when excess expectations start to be cut.
So, what can be CONCLUDE:
There is a bubble, but it does not mean that everything inside the bubble is wind, it has many fundamentals that are true, there are many companies inside the #spx500 that are actually resuming growth, but when most are more concerned about getting rich soon, ends up creating excesses that at a certain time will certainly burst.
So, be aware of the exaggeration and euphoria, most stocks are already at this level, it is better to stay out than to fall at a loss.
Good luck and Good Profit
Make America Great Again, but so fast?We reached weekly RSI overbought territory.
1)We face nearly 28% gain YTD without correction.
2)We face a Phase 1 Blackbox Trade Deal
3)We face an inverted yield curve in mid 2019
So don't we gain to fast?
Is 2020 another 20% gain possible?
I face its time for a correction.
Target 2950.
SPX: 2800 still holdingUntil SPX cash closes below 2800, trend is still up. I see both bull and bear cases possible. I'm still leaning bullish as everyone is calling for a bear market or lower low just like Dec bottom, everyone was calling for a retest but we went on to make new aths. CB's will keep easing like or not, and companies are buying back their stocks aggressively. Again, at this point it could go either ways, so if you're a swing trader, it's best to wait and see what happens this coming week. Close above 2960 should eliminate the bear case imho, close below 2800 and we go much lower
S&P 500 | Time For Correction!?Hi,
S&P 500 (SPX) has reached inside the area where it may make a correction after 6 continually bullish weeks.
Technically, I did everything I could to determine the area which can act as resistance (it is difficult if the asset makes all-time highs), it consists of:
1. 3x Channel projections. They all should work as resistance levels.
2. Minor trendline (light-blue)
3. Short-term AB=CD and actually at the moment, we are on the D point. So, do not be surprised if the correction starts from here (3120-3130)
4. 2-3x Fibonacci Extensions
5. The middle number 3200.
Basically, at the moment is this situation - if you can draw some logical lines from somewhere then they run through the marked red resistance box. The second considerable resistance box stays around 3400 but I think we will see a correction before we even reach there.
If the correction starts then probably it goes back to retest 3,000.
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Best regards,
Vaido