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USB10YUSD

Did the 10 year yield break in 2008?Good day Traders and investors, The 10 year yield on the 6 month chart. This is the entire history on one chart. What is going on with the 10 year yield? It is getting very, very volatile. It all started in 2008 with the financial crisis just looming around the corner. At the same time it broke the .236 on the Fibonacci sequence and has been diving ever since. That is until the next major crisis of the pandemic where is seems to have bottomed and took a strong bounce off a cliff dive. What does all this mean? did something break in 2008 like a lot of economist are saying? It's very possible. When we look at the chart, the 10 year yield compared to the last decade has been very stable. Even during the Volker years (late 70's early 80's) when interest rates spikes it barely made a move out from the norm and then rode the top of the trend as support for years until 2008. This volatility break out does look deferent and kind of scary. What will the volatility lead too, massive spike? or massive plunge? Could it also just bounce around sideways for years? What we have to keep in mind is, these are historically long-term trends. 20 to 40 years. Could this move up be a fake out? Yes, I think it's possible, however a fake out is on this chart 5 to 10 years, so it's of no major concern at the moment. THE INDICATRORS Right away, when look at the chart and the RSI, we see clear weakening and bearish divergence on the trend. We can see it playing out (bearish divergence) from 1968 to 1981, when the yield made a higher high but the RSI made a lower low. As we can see the divergence did play out, but it took almost 2 generations in 40 years. Also the ASO has been showing that the sentiment over the yield has been lessening over the years on the up swings and down swings, but it just had a major cross, so is that over now? Time will tell, a lot of it. Touching on the Historical volatility again, we clearly see a sense of somewhat controlled or stable volatility for close to 100 years until 2008. Could this new volatility be the new trending range for the next hundred years? Possibly, if so, it shouldn't concern us. For now, we should just focus on the next 5 to 10 years and see what happens. I have included a couple of scenarios in the chart. If the RSI gets rejected from this down trend, then yes, this is the chance that it could be a fake out move and then reverse and go lower. If volatility stays high and the trend is to go up for 20 to 40 years then I do believe the RSI would have to break this down trend. both of those in my opinions are scary, the 2nd one than the first. There is also sideways action for a decade and possible a cool down of the volatility before the next move, I would prefer this one, as it seems less scary to me. THE FLUFF AND EXTRA I think the yields being a fake out and go lower is the least likely scenario. However, (and here is the Fluff) my conspiracy mind has one scenario where this could happen. It all hinges and plays on CBDC's becoming a thing during this time frame. The theory is if CBDC's are introduced within the next 5 to 10 years then the yields could reverse, go back and make new lows at some point. The reason being is I don't think we can go negative yields without CBDC's. That doesn't mean it's a given if CBDC are implemented, it means the doorway would be opened for it. Remember, this is just FLUFF and opinion and means nothing. Kind regards & Have great day Demetrios
TVC:US10Y
by WeAreSat0shi
1
Unveiling the Secret Relationship: US 10-Year Treasury and GoldAs you may already know, the US 10-Year Treasury is a government bond that benchmarks long-term interest rates. Investors often turn to this instrument as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. In contrast, gold has long been considered a store of value and a hedge against inflation. It is highly sought after in times of economic distress, making it a popular choice for investors looking to diversify their portfolios. What's truly captivating is the observation that the US 10-Year Treasury and the price of gold tend to move in opposite directions. When the yield on the 10-Year Treasury rises, indicating increased investor confidence and potentially higher interest rates, the price of gold often experiences a decline. Conversely, gold prices tend to increase when the yield on the 10-Year Treasury falls, signaling economic uncertainty and the potential for lower interest rates. This inverse relationship can be attributed to various factors. Firstly, rising interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive, diverting funds from non-yielding assets like gold. Secondly, as the US dollar strengthens with higher interest rates, gold, priced in dollars, becomes relatively more expensive for foreign buyers. Lastly, lower interest rates often lead to increased inflation expectations, making gold an appealing investment due to its historical ability to preserve purchasing power. You might wonder how this knowledge can practically apply to your trading strategies. Well, my friend, here comes the call to action: I encourage you to closely monitor the direction of the US 10-Year Treasury to predict potential movements in the price of gold. By staying informed about the yield fluctuations of the 10-Year Treasury, you can gain valuable insights into the overall market sentiment and potentially anticipate shifts in gold prices. This knowledge can help you make more informed trading decisions and position yourself advantageously in the market. Remember that while the inverse relationship between the US 10-Year Treasury and gold has proven to be a reliable indicator, conducting a thorough analysis and considering other factors that may influence gold's price is essential. Market conditions are ever-changing, and no single hand can guarantee success. Therefore, combining this knowledge with other technical and fundamental analysis tools is crucial to maximize your trading potential. In conclusion, understanding the inverse relationship between the US 10-Year Treasury and gold can be valuable to your trading arsenal. By closely monitoring the direction of the 10-Year Treasury, you can gain insights into potential movements in gold prices, allowing you to make more informed trading decisions.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
NZD/ USD Kiwi/ Dollar &10Y Bond Yields I was stopped out on the last pattern i posted on this pair and now entered on another pattern. An alternate Bat pattern. In the white ellipses we have where the HSI Arrow printed in an area of extreme reading then PA came down out of reaction and both oscillators made it at least the 50 line respectively, and then did the HSI "Check back" that Scott Carney uses was done on the second white ellipsis. if Pa is able to close below the .7166X level we could be in a position to head down as the dollar strengthens. Its all Dependent on what the 10Y Yields hold in store. Currently waiting to see how the hour closes. i will ad pictures of the hour look and 10Y Yield synopsis too. 1H Time Frame looking for a close below the neck line for a nice ride down. the daily 10Y Yield For those not familiar with the 10Y Yield it is the true valuation of the US Dollar. The yield is inverse of the bond price as yields go up prices go down to entice investors to invest in the US Economy (Dollar) and as yields go down Prices go up to protect potential buyers from buying a low yield investment. But, where the money is made in the bond world is that when the yields go down the Bond yield is locked. so at the end of the 10 year period the US will pay the holder of the bond the yield printed on the bond regardless of what the current yield is doing. So, lets say Investor A bought the bond at the very low for lets say 100$/ a bond and he bought 100,000$ worth so that means the yield might be locked in at 2%. Lets say the investor A is strapped for cash, so he enters the bond market with his 2% yield bond it looks very enticing because the current rate is 1.5% so, Investor B approaches Investor A with saying "hey ill buy your bond for 101,000 dollars" Investor A realizes he made a profit of 1,000$ and needs the cash now so he agrees to sell it. Now, Investor B holds the 10Y Bond at 2% and if he decides to hold it to fruition then he too will make a 1,000$ profit on his investment. Now, this is why the bond rates are so important to the US dollar because it will let you know where the long term investors are looking at putting their money as good foundation for their portfolios. This is super simplified on how the bond market works and i am by no means a bond trader. So, if there are any bond traders that would like to clarify or correct me please do so i will greatly appreciate it. the technical is that currently the yields have hit a .382 retracement, and in a very strong trend prices usually bounce off the .382 before moving further. so right now we are printing an indecision candle and so we could see more upward movement for the bonds. A lot of people are worried about the bond yields making it to 2.00% so fast and that it might cause inflation and they are partly right. Because the US is going to have all this excess cash flow in the market making the dollar weaker because its readily abundant in such a short time. A 2% yields has not been seen since 2019. So, we shall See
Short
by ARegularGuy
A barometer of Investor Confidence - Treasury bondA treasury bond is a certificate representing a loan to the federal government that matures in more than 10 years. Since they are backed by the U.S. government, they are seen as a safe investment, particularly relative to stocks and other securities. Treasury bond prices and yields move in opposite directions—falling prices boost yields and rising prices lower yields. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates, and other measures; it's also seen as a sign of investor sentiment about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors would rather put their money in higher risk, higher reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite . Source : Investopedia.com Conversely, this means that global stock market is still in for a bull run. If this inverse relationship between bond and equities hold as shown on chart, then as retail investors, is it not clear where we should park our funds? Or are we too scared to enter the market because of some bears spreading rumours of recession, inflation, stagflation ,etc ? If you study the chart closely, you would notice in each LH , there are doji candles which means a trend reversal from long to short. Candlestick patterns have been studied in Japan for more than 400 years with a rich history and receive world wide recognition for its application. The one thing I like most is it takes away human biasness, judgement and emotions away from the analysis and force oneself squarely to look at the price action. Everything that is happening and would happen are already factor into the candlestick. In short, it reflects the investors sentiment - greed, fear, anticipation, worry, euphoria, etc. Like a see-saw, one side has to be heavier to weigh down the other side. Sometimes, is the buy side and others the sell side. For now, the sell side seems heavier and thus leading the price to go south.
UShort
by dchua1969
US 10 Year Bond is testing it's daily uptrend line and supportI posted this as neutral because it can go either way from here. I bought TYO in my 401k two days ago and shorted the future yesterday. For those who are short, this is a take profit area if support holds. I will put a tight stop loss here. A long position can be taken here depending on the price action. If it breaks support and the uptrend line, short at an appropriate time. usb10yusd -0.25% usually falls with dxy 0.14% strength. Caution: These leveraged etfs are low volume which affects entry and exit prices and liquidity.
U
by haug01