KBW (US Bank Index) - 70% Countercyclical Short Trade? UhohHey traders,
I won't comment on this one and will just let the data and idea speak for itself. IF this happens its going to be a very painful period for many on the lower-bound of income generation who rely on credit creation to make ends meet. Please consider philanthropic endeavours from any capital made on this trade. Godspeed.
***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
Usbankindex
US BANK INDEX - 15% Countercyclical Trade?The selloff has been fairly steep in this index as we now trading below the descending channel. We are very oversold here, so let's look for a re-entry back into the channel and see if we can hit channel resistance before we get another consolidating sell-off.
Here's the weekly snapshot:
We can see we are close to the EMA200 and will probably need to retest resistance before we break below it.
***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
US BANK INDEX considerations (DJUSBK)I think US banks looks generally bullish, but the DJUSBK does shed light on a few critical considerations.
Below is a longterm picture.
GS @ 15 min @ just a little bit - daily (3 GAP`s left behind)Basic horicontal lines (support/resistance) are:
242.42 high of last week
235.54 low of this week
225.73 opening price & low of last week
GS opend this week around last weeks highs and created weekly lows around basic upside, before breaked out slightly today. Noticable, at in my opinion, are the facts, that GS created 3 GAP`s. 3 Upside GAP´s are suggesting me, that many traders are scared not be long also. Usually GAP`s got the property to be closed - in a superior upside trend. And that`s the reason why i adon`t wanna ignore all 3. I am relative surely that the market will let all 3 left behind, while next week at least. But market pressure like yesterday is always possible - even if the fundamentals are suggesting still higher prices. How ever, use the GAP`s still as an entry, guys :) i bought today some CFD`s at 241.50 :agree:
241.62 & 240.27 3rd GAP (before todays outbreak)
238.20 & 237.50 2nd GAP (after fals breakout while monday)
236.72 & 235.54 1st GAP (thursday opening, last week
price targets (based on development last days) could be
243,22 last alltime high & 3rd GAP
246,64 last alltime high & 2nd GAP
248,12 last alltime high & 1st GAP
superordinate prices targets (on higher time frames) are still
249,30 last week alltime high & low of this week
250,70 all time high from october`07
259,11 last weeks high & low difference
JPM for example breakedout for a long minutes, hours, days.
From tis point of view, don`t get panic if the price raises too much at once.
Of course, it`s all relative - not only compared to other bank or financial shares!
But in historical context - even before so called financial crises `07 - the numbers we`re not better as the political (trump, reds, fiscal policy) or even financial market environment (low rates - cycles is slightly starting) :)
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a analysis (for swing traders) - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
