Get started

Usbonds

DXY - CPI Data Day 💣Since it is a big day for the dollar it is only right we take a look at the DXY to get a better perspective on what we can expect. I am in two minds - the daily chart would suggest we have an incomplete compression that needs to push higher to take out early sellers. BUT The four-hour charts suggests that breakout sellers have already been liquidated and that it may be time the buyers get a stop hunt. What will happen is unclear but at least we have two scenarios we can work with depending on price action. Keep this in the back of your mind during trading today and make your own judgement.
TVC:DXY
by AlkalineFX
16
Breakout Of the 40 Years Old DowntrendUS 10 year bond rates are important indicator for investors. If its go up, it means investors are selling their bonds expecting interest rate rise from FED. This is happening for over 1.5 year now. Investors are selling bonds because they think inflation coming and FED will act accordingly. High interest rates cause risky assets, like crypto and stock market, to lose value. In this Monthly chart, Something huge is happening with the 10 years right now. We were in a downtrend that started in 1981. We tested the trendline in 1984, 2007, 2018 but never able to break it out. Last months, breakout occured and we may retest the trendline before going up. Around 3.25 area seems to have a strong resistance. Also around 3.25 area, investors may want to buy bonds therefore 10y rates can pause their rise for a couple of months. The breakout of this decades long trendline may mean that, we entered a new period of high interest rates. But in the end everything will be decided by FEDs actions. Thanks. Follow for more information and charts about markets and global economy.
TVC:US10YLong
by thegreatwall38
I'm keeping an eye on this channel top for US20YSoon it might be a good time to buy TLT or TMF. The top for bond yields looks near to me as it gets close to this channel top. A good confirmation for a pullback would be to watch for a break in the stoch support. You could argue that it is also making a megaphone pattern with the support at 2.6% and the resistance at the channel top. I looked into this pattern and it could be bullish or bearish unfortunately, so it is hard to say what it'll do until it breaks either side. I charted a bullish possibility and target if it does break out, such a move could end up quite bad for the market, so I hope it won't happen.
TVC:US20YShort
by Lynxys
10 YEAR YIELD GOING HIGHER MOST LIKELYIn the current high inflation environment we are in and with the Rus-Ukr war pushing energy and other commodity prices higher and higher, we can all agree yields on bonds have every right to move way higher then we have been seeing the past few years. The peak of the 'Tamper-Tantrums' back in November 2018 (Seen with black arrow) we can see the 10 year yield was higher than current levels. This was also when the fed wasn't that eager to release a 9 trillion dollar balance sheet back to market and when inflation levels were no where near what we are seeing (and feeling...) today. I do think we could be seeing the 10Y yield trying those levels (hit a little over 3% during those times) in the upcoming weeks. I do think the market will be ahead of the Fed, and push it to move higher faster. We may even break the 3% level.. especially if there is a hyper-inflation panic. Faster Bond movements could drag the market down (especially high flyers, tech stocks, etc) as e have seen in the recent past. We had a 2y/10y inversion last week which could be a leading recession indicator. In any case, be sure it's the Bond markets that will be setting the tone. Trade with caution :)
TVC:US10YLong
by LEO_IAMNOTUNCERTAIN_55555
US Government Bond Yield's Are Speaking But No One Is ListeningWe are clearly seeing Bond Yields tightening at an unprecedented rate. What is so interesting about this is that historically, yields have been driven higher by the FEDs Fund Rate, but Powell merely did a 0.25% hike on March 16th. Bonds have already priced in rates at 2.5% and coincidentally this was the same rate (2.5%-3.0%) that drove the market into "Volmageddon". Here is the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Average in the US, which paints a very similar picture. This is usually when the Housing Market really starts to get affected. It has already seemingly broken resistance. Deviating from the trend. CPI data for March will be coming and its significance can't be understated because this will reflect the impact of the sanctions the United States put on Russia. As well as further commodity data. One thing I have yet to see anybody acknowledge is the unprecedented rise in fertilizer. Please understand how vital fertilizer is to every country in the world. Without it or even a deficiency would send the world spiraling from lack of food. If prices are too expensive for farmers to meaningfully harvest every year, the market MUST accommodate. Bonds have a rich history of telling the real story while the FED sings like a dove. Powell has recently been Hawkish but most investors believe he will flip dovish when the time is right. The Bond market is again, telling us the total opposite. Just recently Powell was asked, "Are you prepared to do what it takes to get inflation under control?" to which Powell responded, "I hope history will record that the answer to your question is Yes". Usually, the common narrative is, "don't fight the FED". Well, why does everyone seem like they are fighting the FED?
TVC:US10Y
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
8
Inflation, bond yields, the dollar and the Fed! Macro series pt1Part 1 Hello everyone! It's been a few weeks since my last update on the markets, and this one is going to be a very special one. Will go through many different aspects of most major markets, by using both technical and fundamental analysis. It will be an in-depth analysis with lots of charts of several instruments, that have the potential to give us a clear picture of where we are and what is going right now in the global landscape. Because there are so many things I'd like to mention, I've broken the analysis down in different parts, all of which you will be able to find on the links down below. The first and most important pieces of the puzzle are the US Dollar and interest rates, as together they are one of the largest components in essentially every market as they partially determine the liquidity and demand, by ‘setting a price for money’. In 2020 many forecasters predicted that the value of the dollar would collapse and said it was dead as it had lost 10-15% of its value relative to other fiat currencies. Yet they were very wrong in 2021 as the dollar bottomed and started rising along with interest rates, despite inflation skyrocketing in the latter part of the year. At the same time many claimed that the bond market would collapse, yet even though long term US bond yields had been rising from Aug 2020 up until Mar 2021, just to barely get to pre-pandemic levels where bond yields were already really low. Then went sideways until the end of 2021, where they started rising again. During that time short term US bond yields were close to 0 and only started rising at the end of Sep 2021 as inflation started climbing fast and the market started anticipating the Fed raising rates. Therefore, as those yields were rising due to inflation going up, so did the USD which might seem counterintuitive. Why would it go up if it’s losing purchasing power? Well fiat currencies are trading against other fiat currencies and the world is heavily interconnected, so it’s a relative game and inflation wasn’t just US phenomenon. However most importantly it was clear that inflation didn’t come due to the Fed doing QE or lowering rates, but due to several other factors. To name a few 1. Government spending, 2. Credit creation during Covid, 3. Deferred loan/rent payments, 4. Wealth effect due to stocks/housing going up, 5. Supply chain issues, 6. Supply shortages due to labor shortages or businesses closing, 7. Pend up demand, 8. Higher demand for goods than services, as well as demand of new types of goods, and finally and most importantly 9. Issues in the energy sector and particularly due to the fact that many oil and natural gas wells got shut and weren’t reopened. Now you might be thinking ‘wait a second, where does QE fit into all of this?’. Unlike what most people believe about QE or low interest rates, the Fed doesn’t print money. It simply creates reserves which the banks can’t use to buy anything and low interest rates are a sign that the economy is in trouble as banks aren’t willing to lend to anyone other than big institutions. QE isn’t inflationary as it is just an asset swap and the Fed doesn’t determine anything aside from short-term rates. So, what does the Fed actually do? Essentially, they are trying to push banks to lend, yet banks refuse to do so, and in turn the Fed tries to manage expectations. It all boils down to the Fed making people believe they know what they are doing and that they are a powerful institution that can either create or fight inflation. Therefore, in the list of factors there is another one (no. 10) which is that the Fed convinced everyone that they flooded the world with cash and that affected the spending/investing habits of the people that believed them. Yet there was a market that hasn’t really believed them, and that is the bond market. The bond market keeps indicating that we are stuck in a low growth environment where inflation isn’t a long-term issue, just a short term one. It is also telling us that there is too much debt and too many problems, many of which policy makers haven’t been able to solve. Not only that, but many of the policies have been making things worse and worse, and that in 2022 it looks like inflation is probably going to slow down. Hence if markets and the data are telling us inflation isn’t going to be a major issue in 2022 and the sources of inflation are elsewhere, why will the Fed raise rates? Can it raise rates? By how much? What impact will that have on the economy? For the first question there are some pretty clear explanations. One of them is that Fed wants to raise rates is so that people keep believing in that they can control inflation and that they aren’t just there to pump the stock market. Many believe in the Fed put, which is the belief that the Fed doesn’t want to do anything to upset the markets and that if things go bad the Fed will support the stock market because it can. However, another one is that there are also many people who are upset about inflation and want someone to do something. These people demand the Fed to act, as the Fed itself claims to have the tools to fight inflation and that it created the inflation in the first place. Hence at the moment the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place, as markets are at ATHs, housing at ATHs, the economy is slowing down and overall is in a pretty bad place, while for most people the costs of living are up by 10-20% compared to 2 years ago. By the Fed’s own mandates and admissions, inflation above 2% is high (CPI was at 7% YoY) and their reasoning for QE + low rates has been their goal of full employment… and as we’ve reached a point where unemployment is very low and there are even labor shortages as many people haven’t gotten back to the labor force since the pandemic begun. This in turn puts pressure on wages and inflation, hence the Fed has to act based on its own ‘goals’. Yet if they act, and especially if they act quickly, the markets could crash and this could have even more implications on the economy. It is pretty clear that they have to walk a fine line, except it’s also pretty much impossible for their actions not to affect the markets which are overleveraged and are showing signs of weakness. On the one hand they need the markets to come down a bit, in order to slow down the wealth effect which affects inflation, as well as prevent excess speculation from going even further… and on the other hand they must not overdo it because the whole system could grind to a halt. Keeping all of the above in mind, it seems pretty hard for the Fed to significantly raise rates. Yesterday when Powell started answering questions, he was pretty hawkish because people aren’t taking the Fed seriously, but there is a long way between them talking about being serious and them actually doing it. Doing both QT and raising rates more than 3 times this year, something that the market seems to be expecting at the moment seems a bit farfetched. Like Alex Gurevich said on his recent appearance on ‘The Market Huddle’ podcast (and I am paraphrasing a bit), the most likely scenario for the Fed is to raise rates once. In his view they could do one and not hike again for a decade. Maybe they get two or more, but 1 is more likely than 2, and 2 are more likely than 3… and so on. He also mentioned that he thinks we in the late stages of this cycle, and I happen to agree with both views. My reasoning is that the inflationary factors mentioned earlier seem to be weakening substantially and slowly giving their place to the disinflationary/deflationary factors like supply chains issues being slowly resolved, less government spending, debt accumulated during the pandemic having to be repaid and so on. Inflation in 2021 was really high, though towards the end of the year several data points started showing that it was slowing down and in 2022 we could have 2-3% inflation or even outright deflation. To sum it all up, the Fed will start raising rates too late, as real rates have already started coming up and could go up even higher inflation starts going lower. The impact this could have on an overleveraged market is substantial, something that could force the Fed to stop raising rates and even stop its talks about reducing its balance sheet… or maybe even force them to go back into cutting rates and doing QE. Up to this point we’ve only talked about rates, but haven’t mentioned anything about the USD and how it could affect entire financial system. This is another very important factor that the Fed needs to be aware off, even if they haven’t been explicit about it recently. The USD is the global reserve currency and most of the world’s debt is denominated in USD, which means that when it goes up relative to other currencies, then debt repayments become harder especially for those who don’t earn USD. At the same time when US interest rates go up AND the USD goes up relative to other currencies, that creates immense pressure on the financial system. That’s because people/institutions have to pay more interest on their loans, while the currency they are earning and need to convert into dollars to repay their debt, is worth less and less. These two factors create some serious deflationary pressures as someone might be forced to cut their spending or even outright sell assets in order to keep up with his obligations. Of course, in a situation where the entire globe is doing well and rates go up because the economies are booming, debt is low, and it just happens that the USD is going up as it happens that the US is doing better than other countries, then the dollar going up isn’t really an issue and neither are rates. However, the dollar going up, especially along with interest rates really is an issue when the world is drowning in debt, economies aren’t doing well, markets are overleveraged and optimized to work well in a low-rate environment. Another thing to keep in mind is that the dollar going up might create a vicious loop by accelerating the sell-off in traditional markets as more and more people sell in order to meet their obligations, or take a risk off stance or to take advantage of higher interest rates or to take advantage of its rise relative to other currencies. At the end of the day the US isn’t an economy that functions in isolation and it isn’t the only one that uses or CREATES dollars. That’s something crucial that many people forget, as even if the US economy is doing great and higher rates might be appropriate for the US, the actions by the Fed could create issues in other parts of the world, which in turn could damage the US economy.
AMEX:SPY
by BitcoinMacro
2
The US Bond Market Explained. You will hear many people in finance and in trading tell you that the bond market is the most important market to understand because it influences every other market in the world… particularly the US Bond market. 

In this video I am going to try and explain what the Bond market is for anyone new to trading or still learning about the bond market and then I will give you a prediction of where I think the market is moving next. 

All within 20 minutes because that’s the limit on TradingView videos.

I will try to keep the terminology as simple as possible and jargon free for people still learning about this market but if at all you want any further explanation on anything covered, simply drop a comment below and I will do my best to answer them all. Basics - Two main elements to the bond market… 

1) Bond prices “Called a premium”, simply, this is the price you pay to buy a bond.
 2) Bond Yields. These are how much interest you are paid on that bond and are described in percentage terms.

 As with any asset price, the prices of bonds are largely determined by supply and demand forces. 

 Typically, investors buy more bonds (and demand goes up) when the economy is projected to perform badly because bonds are regarded as one of the safest assets in the market.
 & 
Investors sell more bonds when they expect the economy to do well because they want to use that money to buy riskier assets such as stocks that will provide better returns in the economic good times. 

 These two elements in bonds are INVERSELY CORRELATED. 

 So when the Bond price goes up, the yield on offer goes down. 
& 
when the bond prices go down, the yield goes up. 

 Finally the last basic point to explain for anyone new to trading or the bond market is that the duration of the bond is also important to consider when analysing the bond market. 

The most common bond is the 10YR but there’s also 30YR bonds and 1YR bonds available and the duration of the bond is the amount of time that the “premium” is locked up for… after the duration the premium is then paid back to the investor. 

Each of these bonds durations perform differently depending on investors sentiments. So hopefully that has given a brief overview of what the bond market is and explained the basics of how it works. In the video above I explain the next steps that the bond market may have including projection 10YR yields of 3% or more to come! And the potentially dangerous consequences that could have for markets.
TVC:US10YEducation
by JoelWarby
3
Bond yields keep fallingBonds all across the world, across all different spectrums (from gov bonds to junk bonds) have been rising (their yields falling). This is a signal that there are deflationary pressures and that people are searching for yield in an environment with few opportunities. There are other reasons too, but overall this isn't the best signal. Clearly big corporations and governments are benefiting from the situation, but this is also a fragile situation. Although the current conditions benefit some stocks and risk assets due to the highly negative real rates, this doesn't mean that everything is perfect. Personally I believe equities haven't topped and they have much more room to grow from here, but I also think a big correction isn't far away (10-20%). In my opinion bond bulls are in control (bearish on yield) and yields could fall even lower.
TVC:US10YShort
by BitcoinMacro
5
Are the bond bulls in control or is it time for a break?Bonds have reached a very important level. For now this seems like a *logical* place for the *anti-reflation* / deflation trade to end, and for the risk on trade to be back. I am more on the disinflationary (very low inflation) camp, however bonds have risen substantially and it might be time to take some profits before the resume lower. I don't think we will have extremely high inflation yet and I don't think we will have the good type of inflation because things are going well. I do expect Oil to go higher and that to cause all sorts of issues and higher prices, but other than that I don't think bonds will get crushed. At least no yet. The key question for the whole reflation trade is... WIll bonds and USD keep going higher, with only US behemoths rallying or and the rest bleeding or struggling, or could we get a larger shock? Because to me if the USD really breaks out and heads for 96 on the DXY, while bonds also rally... we will eventually see something break. I think we'll soon have a better idea of where things could be heading next so it is better to be patient and take a few select trades that go well with this environment and look technically sound.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BitcoinMacro
1
Bitcoin and U.S. Bond Yield: A True Love Story (revised)When investors were fearful of the growing inflation they were looking for an asset to hedge against this madness. They used to buy gold back in the days, but recently they found Bitcoin. So now whenever investors lose confidence in the market they drop bonds driving the US10Y up and buy bitcoin instead. Who is in charge? Crypto-market is reacting to the global market and appears to be predicting the future of stock market by moving their funds in and out of the big crypto. Or is it the other way around? There are two unique features in these charts: 1-These charts are out of sync and there is some degree of delay between them. It appears that Bitcoin is a few weeks ahead of the yields so perhaps investors move their money in and out of the bitcoin before biding on the bonds. 2-Both charts seem to be moving in a specific proportion. It looks like for every 3 points movement in Bitcoin, US10Y moves 1 point (See the blue arrows). When Bitcoin broke below its trendline and dropped nearly 33%, while when US10Y broke below its trendline it dropped around 11%. Now what? Considering the death cross on daily and the massive head and shoulder that are about to complete on the BTC chart, Bitcoin may not be done dropping: So if it drops another 48%, US10Y should also drop but as much as 16%. Although, we are already anticipating a drop in the yield considering the CPI report released on June 10th: What does it all mean? 1-Apes are going to have another run 2-The growth market should gain momentum 3-The speculative stocks should go up. Please share your thoughts and theories in the comment section below.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarkitMaven
31
Bitcoin and U.S. Bond Yield: A True Love Story When investors were fearful of the growing inflation they were looking for an asset to hedge against this madness. They used to buy gold back in the days, but recently they found Bitcoin, which has many advantages compared to metal. So as we know, whenever investors lose confidence in the market they drop bonds driving the US10Y up, but they seem to buy bitcoin instead. It appears that investors are predicting the market by moving their funds in and out of the big crypto, which might explain the delay between these charts (white arrow). As you may notice, US10Y seems to be a few days behind BTC. Although, these charts are out of sync, they proportional. It looks like for every 3 points movement in Bitcoin, US10Y moves 1 point (See the blue arrows). When Bitcoin broke below its trendline on May 11th it dropped nearly 33%, while US10Y broke below its trendline on June 8th and dropped around 11%, hence the delay and proportionality. But considering the death cross and the massive head and shoulder that are about to complete on the BTC chart, Bitcoin may not be done dropping: So if it drops another 48%, US10Y should also drop but as much as 16%. Although, we are already anticipating a drop in the yield considering the CPI report released on June 10th: What does it all mean? It means: Money tunnels out of Bitcoin into Bonds and vice versa Yields react to the previous point. Lower Yields should result in the following scenarios: 1-Apes are going to have another run 2-The growth market should gain momentum 3-The speculative stocks should go up. Please share your thoughts and theories in the comment section below.
TVC:US10Y
by MarkitMaven
16
Chart of the day: It’s not reflation without higher bond yieldsThe move lower in US10Y in the past few sessions has been the talk of the town in the finance industry, especially after all the rigmarole caused in the market by the rapidly rising yields over the past few weeks. With US10Y testing key support at 1.60 – 1.62 the question that the market’s wanted answered is whether we see yields bounce from key support, or whether we take out key support and continue to counter trend grind lower. It was an important question to ask due to the impact that the move in something like US10Y can have on the Dollar, Gold and the JPY. The grind lower in US10Y this week saw Gold push back into a key level of resistance in 1760 and USDJPY revisit key support at 109.30. So far, it seems like US10Y has been able to hold the first test f key support. That of course doesn’t mean the move will just be straight line higher from here as we could still test lower again and could even break support. However, in line with the balance or probabilities and the path of least resistance we would expect US10Y to grind higher in the weeks ahead. Attention now for US10Y in the short term turns towards today’s PPI numbers for the US.
TVC:US10Y
by thunderpips
14
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YELD GROWINGBond markets have experienced a strong movement this week with the U.S. Federal Reserve saying it expects higher economic growth and inflation in the United States this year, although it repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero. Yields on U.S. 10-year have been rising for the past seven weeks on growth expectations, spiked to their highest since January 2020 at 1.754% on Thursday. They eased to 1.6838% on Friday. The SEB analysts said they expected the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to hit 2% this year
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXN1
10
WILL YIELDS DROP? CRAZY MOVES!Hey tradomaniacs, The market is seriously playing games here! 🙈 The blast of yields can not be sustainable as this is going to be a be a thorn in Powells flesh. Why is that? Basically because rising yields will "raise the price of" debts! First of all, this is a BET against the FED and looks like TEST. As often explained, YIELDS are currently rising due to the inflation-worries. BUT here is the thing: In his last testimonial Jerome Powell said the FED is not even close to its inflation-goal of 2%❗️ So you may ask yourself, when will the YIELDS stop rising? Well there are two options: 1️⃣ Yield-Curve-Controle with Bond-Buying-Purchases 2️⃣ To back down and change the current policy Yield-Curve-Controle of long-term-yields would be an option but probably not a solution as the FED would PRINT money in order to buy bonds 👉 More inflation 👉 More worries! Will 10-Year-Yields reject off the resistance and correct? We have to keep in mind that gamblers can bet on rising yields, which will likely take some of their profits. This could cause a retracement, but fundamentally I can`t really say whether the yields will continue to rise or not. One thing is for sure: Rising yields are showing cashflow out of equities into bonds and put stocks under pressure, especially NASDAQ100 and tec-stocks. If equities fall due to rising yields then US-DOLLAR will have a lot of support to change its trend❗️ Today we have got very nice pullbacks for almost all pairs! If we see profit-saves in YIELDS, in other words a correction, then we might see again soem risk-on and great opportunities to follow the trends! Very interesting, but also a very tricky situation for Forex-traders.🙏
TVC:US05
by Trading2ez
4
Are we on the verge of a US Bond market drop?Hello. My name is François Normandeau Here is an ADX-BRIEFING related to the 10-Year US Treasury Notes . Currently, on the daily charts , all the indicators we are using are mentioning that the US Dollar Index TVC:DXY is currently in a confirmed downtrend . Historically, there is a strong positive correlation between the US Dollar Index and the US Treasury Notes. if DXY drops, ZN1! drops... if DXY rises, ZN1! rises... relatively speaking and all things being equal If anyone is currently keeping a major long position related to the US Bond market, then this correlation is worth considering. More details about this post, as well as a video analysis, later today, on our site . Wishing you a great week, François Normandeau Institutional Research Director at ADX-BRIEFING
TVC:DXYShort
by Pine_Academy