Target 3.01Following weekly chart.
This week we're nearly getting a short signal, posting earlier but I am nearly sure about the signal.
TP1 3.26
TP2 3.01
SL 4.1 - Please wait for weekly close.
Usbondsshort
WILL YIELDS DROP? CRAZY MOVES!Hey tradomaniacs,
The market is seriously playing games here! 🙈
The blast of yields can not be sustainable as this is going to be a be a thorn in Powells flesh.
Why is that? Basically because rising yields will "raise the price of" debts!
First of all, this is a BET against the FED and looks like TEST.
As often explained, YIELDS are currently rising due to the inflation-worries.
BUT here is the thing:
In his last testimonial Jerome Powell said the FED is not even close to its inflation-goal of 2%❗️
So you may ask yourself, when will the YIELDS stop rising?
Well there are two options:
1️⃣ Yield-Curve-Controle with Bond-Buying-Purchases
2️⃣ To back down and change the current policy
Yield-Curve-Controle of long-term-yields would be an option but probably not a solution as the FED would PRINT money in order to buy bonds 👉 More inflation 👉 More worries!
Will 10-Year-Yields reject off the resistance and correct?
We have to keep in mind that gamblers can bet on rising yields, which will likely take some of their profits.
This could cause a retracement, but fundamentally I can`t really say whether the yields will continue to rise or not.
One thing is for sure:
Rising yields are showing cashflow out of equities into bonds and put stocks under pressure, especially NASDAQ100 and tec-stocks.
If equities fall due to rising yields then US-DOLLAR will have a lot of support to change its trend❗️
Today we have got very nice pullbacks for almost all pairs!
If we see profit-saves in YIELDS, in other words a correction, then we might see again soem risk-on and great opportunities to follow the trends!
Very interesting, but also a very tricky situation for Forex-traders.🙏
#US #Government #Bonds 30Y #Forecast #ShortWe are possibly looking at (and forecasting) a 3-touch sell-off on the US Government Bonds 30Y daily chart around resistance at 98'04'3.
Sell-off in about 1-14 days time.
R/R = 5.79% approx.
United States Headed Towards A Recession? The ten year yield peaks about 6 months to 14 months before two consecutive quarters of negative growth (a technical recession). Right now, from our peak in this current cycle we are 6 months divorced from a peak in the yield. Moreover, 3 year over 10 year yields inverted recently a signal that a recession is in the not too distant future. However, massive stimulus in the form of quantitative easing has significantly pushed down the 10 year yield distorting this market. Moreover, the 3 year over 10 year only inverted for around five trading days and is no longer inverted whereas the same ratio inverted for several months in 2000 and 2007. Overall, we are probably not going to see recession from Q2 into Q3 of 2019, but it is in our future whether its later this year or 2021.
