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USD-BTC

dxy go roof time to go regularDollar hits 16-month high as inflation fears set it up for best week since June TOKYO (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar headed for its best week in almost five months against major peers on Friday, amid bets for earlier Federal Reserve interest rate hikes after data this week showed the fastest U.S. inflation in three decades. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six peers, hit a fresh 16-month high of 95.266, on track for a 1.05% gain this week, the most since the period ended June 20. The euro slipped back to a 16-month low at $1.1436, and sterling dipped to $1.3354, its weakest level this year. "We close out the week with the USD thoroughly breaking out," Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone, wrote in a client note. "I am seeing signs of an impending mean reversion play in the USD, but in this flow, dips are a buying opportunity." Data on Wednesday showed a broad-based rise in U.S. consumer prices last month at the fastest annual pace since 1990, calling into question the Fed's contention that price pressures will be "transitory" and fuelling speculation that policymakers would lift interest rates sooner than previously thought. Markets now price a first rate increase by July and a high likelihood of another by November. "We still think market pricing has room to firm further, especially in 2023, which can further support USD," Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) strategist Kimberley Mundy wrote in a client note. By contrast, "interest rate futures are too aggressive in pricing in (European Central Bank) rate increases for next year considering ECB policymakers are not budging from their ultra‑dovish guidance," giving scope for further euro weakness, she said. Traders will be watching inflation readings from a University of Michigan survey, along with JOLTS job openings data later in the global day. New York Fed president John Williams speaks at an online conference, potentially offering a glimpse of how policymakers are reacting to the red-hot inflation print. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane also speaks on a panel at a separate event. The dollar rose as high as 114.30 yen on Friday, the strongest since Nov. 1. It touched a three-week high of 0.92295 Swiss franc. Swiss National Bank governing board member Andrea Maechler said at an event late on Thursday the Swiss franc remained in demand as a safe haven investment with market uncertainties elevated due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar sank as low as $0.7277 for the first time in more than a month. The New Zealand dollar dropped as low as $0.69965, a level not seen since Oct. 14. In crypto, bitcoin traded just south of $65,000, down from a record $69,000 earlier in the week. Ether changed hands at around $4,800,within sight of the all-time peak of $4,868.79 reached Tuesday.
TVC:DXYShort
by bnb_cake_avax_png_matic
ETH Market Commentary 23.09.2021After an impressive breakout, the next leg now follows (there was also the simpler ETHBTC play where buyers have succeeded and are ready to play the next deflection). On the ETHUSD side, buyers have created a chance for Q4 to attack the highs. Sellers did not want to hold past the C leg which is screaming in advance that sellers are really only masked buyers and the direction decisively favours the topside. So now with this deflection from the C lows, the previous highs have been taken unlocking tempo for buyers. The next leg is impulsive on account of the trap and unwinding. The position should reach $3,600 in the coming sessions comfortably with $4,000 the next target in scope.
BITMEX:ETHUSD.PLong
by ridethepig
US Dollar - Should fall soon - Good for BTC and stocksUS Dollar index (DXY) shows the USD is close to the end of a bearish wedge (green lines). This is similar to the last bearish wedge (blue lines). USD should fall soon, possible with further news of infrastructure bill, debt ceiling solved, etc. When USD falls, everything priced in USD goes up, including BTC, stocks, and commodities like gold and silver. Should be a strong Q4 for everything. Analyst Tom Lee from Fundstrat calls it "the everything rally".
INDEX:DXYLong
by WorthAShot
DXY is a false US Dollar indicator, use BTC instead ! Short .94?The DXY, or US Dollar Index, is calculated based a baskets of six US ICE trading partners. Those partners, the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc all practice debasement to some degree, often "less bad" than the US. Right now, I would short the USD on the resistance at 0.94 but I'd rather long BTC. Here's why... Federal banks can't stop printing to support the system or it will crumble. FIAT debasement is an assured things since it the only politically acceptable solution. We'll deal with rising cost of good and decrease availability of goods because they become too expensive and unaffordable. And we'll have the masses saying "I should have bought some bitcoin $50K!" The charts indicates DXY might go down which could correlate with Bitcoin's breakout this quarter. Enjoy the roller coaster! I might get the time to check the FIAT pairs on DXY to see what each of the chart indicates and if anyone has done that, let me know The basket is EURUSD, JPYUSD, CADUSD, GBPUSD SEKUSD and CHFUSD Final note: Some Forex traders have noticed strong reverse correlation between the USD and CHF (Swiss Franc), pay attention to that CHFUSD although the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has to print Francs to buy Euro so the CHF doesn't skyrocket. So DXY is a comparing a basket of manipulated FIAT currencies. Your 25 cents chocolate bar will be worth $5 pretty soon!
TVC:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
BTC UNEXPECTED LONG ENTERY CAN CHANGE THE PLAY TREND TO STABLE Hello trading friends, ☕️so far the manipulation trend not going below 45400 means good news. because as soon as this repeatedly fails, a rise and even a breakout in the short term is possible. the same working for uptrend and downtrend, i think those following BTC can remember the moment of 59K, when it go more times rejected, we did breakdown, and same before at 29K, when it did not go below that target, we did breakout. ✅i think el Salvador has one of the best advice analysts for BTC. they don't just buy 200 pieces and then 150 pieces to come out as history losers. In the long term, this will have more effect if others follow. ✅BTC can make the Day much better with 5% + breakout to 48600+ ✅at the Chinese market. they traded differently in the red means buy and green sell. this says something about our day trading way. that red can be good for buying and green is for selling.
Long
by watchtrend
3
BTC/USD Decision Level, Up or Down? BTC/USD Decision Level - Will it go up (Repeat 2013)? Or Down? Since BTC has broke resistance at $50k USD, the big question on everyone's mind is, will this bull run continue and repeat the double run of 2013? Or is this just a retrace before BTC goes lower? Here is my take of the chart action unfolding now ... My take on why it might go lower: - Smart money likes to take advantage of the holidays in the worlds largest economy, aka. Memorial Day in the USA. A common trick of Market Makers is to move the price one direction right before a holiday when markets will be closed for an extended period, only to whip the price the opposite direction on market open the following week. Reason for this is they want to trigger peoples stop-losses or buy/sell orders at common psychological numbers (aka $50k USD) and trap them in a bad trade causing the herd to panic and make irrational decisions come market open on Tuesday. Smart money can do this for a relative discount since volume drops off significantly right before (or in this case during) a Holiday, as traders go home early and are busy enjoying themselves and not watching their trades/accounts closely. If they do notice, they are locked into a bad trade because the market is closed. Now we all know Crypto never sleeps and can be traded 24/7, so things operate a little different here, but the same methods apply as less people will be active on their accounts during a Holiday weekend. Smart money does this not just for the discount of breaking resistance at $50k, but also because they want to set themselves up nicely for Tuesday morning (Asia, London, New York Open). If smart money is looking to sell at this level they want to sell high, not sell low, so they move the prices higher before they dump their load on the market. They want to do this unloading during times of HIGH volume (aka when everyone wakes up Tuesday morning and sees their account and panics / rejoices) and not during times of low volume, like during the Holiday. If they sold during times of low volume, they would be selling into their own drop in price. It is also easier to do this once they have broken resistance, as its less likely for prices to break below $50k before smart money is done unloading their Coins. In other words, if they are dumping enough stock/currency/crypto to cause prices to go down, every-time they sold more, they would get less and less for it as prices would have declined because not enough people are buying their supply. This is not what smart money does. Smart money sells to weak holders at HIGHER and HIGHER prices, in anticipation of prices going lower after they are done. Smart money is always ahead of the herd. As a (relative) small time operator, I always want to watch what smart money is doing, and trade with them, not against them. Additionally, tomorrow September 7th is when El Salvador starts to allow their citizens to use Crypto from locally installed Crypto ATM's. Each citizen who signs up will get $30 USD in free BTC when they do. People across the internet on places like Reddit and other forums are encouraging users to follow El Salvador's lead and buy $30 in BTC on Tuesday morning. What would be a better time for smart money to be selling their BTC when MILLIONS of fresh users will be joining the blockchain releasing all that volume onto the market? Nothing like a "totally grassroots (TM)" internet bandwagon to offload your Crypto into. No one would ever manipulate the herd to do something against their own interests ... Finally, the overall sentiment for BTC is HIGHER prices, so I would expect smart money to try and send the prices lower, absorbing the herds long positions in the process and triggering stop-losses, at least in the short term. My Take on the market possible going higher: With all that said, the overall trend of Cyrpto is HIGHER prices. So all things being equal, over a long enough timeline, prices will be HIGHER in the future if you look at the 10 year chart. With Bitcoin going mainstream and several countries adopting BTC as legal tender, the overall outlook on BTC is positive. If smart money was still looking to buy BTC during the Feb - May 2021 highs in anticipation of countries like El Salvador adopting BTC as legal tender, they would first have to drive prices lower so they could buy at a discount. When BTC was at $64k, everyone was long, so smart money and the market makers would have been buying at higher and higher prices against their own accumulation. They want to buy low and sell high, not buy high and hope for selling higher. Based off the charts, Smart Money considers $30k BTC to be "cheap," hence the buying at those levels. I would not anticipate BTC to ever break support at $30k USD ever again barring disaster / market shocks (911, Delta, ect). Additionally, Coinbase stock went live in April, and since the price of Bitcoin and Coinbase seem to be linked, Smart Money does not want to buy Coinbase stock at the IPO price. It would have been in their interest to drive the price of BTC down, and with it the price of COIN so they could accumulate stock. Don't put the "chart" before the horse so to speak. If you look at the COIN stock price, it also looks poised for a breakout after a long period of accumulation: Its common for candles to triple or quadruple tap the support/resistance price before finally breaking through or being rejected and going lower, so a strong break of resistance here on high volume Tuesday morning would show that prices were really ready to move higher and leave $50k BTC behind (or in the case of COIN the $300 level). Important to note that COIN cannot be traded over the weekend days because it is a stock, and its price has not yet broken the resistance line. I would have expected smart money to have quickly broken resistance on COIN Friday afternoon to lock people out of longs, but since COIN seems to follow BTC, maybe they are waiting for BTC to make its move before they move COIN. This was not the case in June however as COIN broke out first from $210 to $261 per share in anticipation of BTC moving higher in August. Then they both moved together for the August 3rd increase. Conclusion: - If the 2020/2021 bull run is over, and what we are seeing at $50k is just a typical harmonic retrace toward the high before lower prices, we will see the Tuesday morning open float to higher prices with low volume before being dumped at some point breaking $50k support. This will occur most likely after 1pm EST till close (wait till everyone gets their long orders in during the morning before moving the price down). If they are trying to absorb all that El Salvador and Reddit money, it may stay above the $50k support for a few days, maybe till the end of this upcoming week, or the start of the week after that with little volume action on higher time-frame charts. The entire country of El Salvador is not going to rush to the Crypto ATM's first thing Tuesday morning. - If we are going to see higher prices and possibly break the ATH and beyond, then what I would expect to happen on Tuesday is a rocket ship of higher prices on medium to high volume, locking everyone out of the market who might think about going long. Watch the BTC price in the next few hours during the market open in Asia and London. I would expect to see the price move higher and higher during this time at a good pace on low or medium volume until Smart Money thinks it is go time. Go Time would likely happen after the first hour of New York open, then lots of wide-spread green bars on medium or high volume. If we do see BTC break support below $50k but only retrace slightly on low or medium volume, its possible this will be short lived fake break of support trying to catch the stop-losses of everyone who went long. With all of that said, I'm leaning toward at least a short term rejection at $50k. I'm usually right on the market move long term, but my timing is often wrong. It's why I swing trade and stay away from day trading. If you haven't already made up your mind on which way its going, in my opinion, $50k is not the place to be doing it (you should have bought in 2019, or at the $30k support). So this is for educational purposes only and not meant as financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by swineninety9
2