USD/CAD uptrend continues...USDCAD is back to the average-price uptrend trendline, which is likely to provide support, potentially pushing the price towards the new higher high. The RR for this opportunity is good, so we are taking it.
Usd-cad
USDCAD LONGUSDCAD LONG
Why are we entering?
- Expecting USD strength (26/27 July) during the FED meeting as they are increasing interest rates.
- Anticipating bounce off buy zone
- In wave 2 ABC
What is our confirmation?
- Bounce off structure & fibonacci level
Entry
- Safe Entry: No safe entry yet. Will look for WFB when we approach the buy zone
- Risk Entry: Entry of bounce off structure
Once entered, where will our Stoploss be?
- Below structure 1.279 (30 pips)
Where do we take profits?
First TP: 1.307 (250pips)
Second TP: 1.322 (400pips)
Third TP: 1.34 (580pips)
Long term TP: 1.365 (820pips)
USDCAD approaching short term supportUSDCAD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.2950 (stop at 1.2890)
Previous support located at 1.2950. Previous resistance located at 1.3000. A lower correction is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 1.3000 will confirm the bullish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 1.3100 and 1.3125
Resistance: 1.3000 / 1.3100 / 1.3125
Support: 1.2950 / 1.2900 / 1.2850
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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USDCAD Potential for bullish rise | 18th July 2022On the H4, with price bouncing off the ichimoku cloud and moving in an ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our buy entry at 1.30083 where the horizontal pullback support is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 1.32281 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may break the support structure at the buy entry and drop to the stop loss at 1.29499 at the overlap swing low. Take note of the pullback resistance at 1.30794 in line with multiple swing highs.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
USDCAD H4 Potential Bounce | 15th July 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 1.30780 where the horizontal pullback support and38.2% Fibonacci retracement are to our 1st resistance at 1.32252 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may not break 1st support and head for 2nd support where the horizontal overlap support is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDCADsuccess breakout Resistance: 1.30754 and breakout triangle chart on the daily candle
Entry: 1.31610
TP: fib level 161.8 1.34357
SL: below fib level 100% 1.30390
USDCAD moving higher -UPDATE -🦐USDCAD on the 4h chart after the break oif the descending channel moved as expected to the weekly resistance.
The price got rejected and retraced at the 0.618 Fibonacci level over a support and is currently retesting the upper structure.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for a potential break above of the area and in that case i will look for a nice long order until the resistance according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
--––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
USDCAD BUYHi fellow traders, USDCAD is completing the flag correction. We are anticipating on a move higher from here. Target the resistance levels and place your stop just below the blue box. Goodluck!
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsCAD/BoC – The Bank of Canada raised rates by 100 basis points at its July meeting, its single biggest hike in 24 years. Furthermore, the central bank said more hikes would be needed.
Commenting on their decision, BoC Governor Macklem said: “We had indicated we were prepared to be more forceful. Today was more forceful…Yes, it is a very unusual move to increase by 100 basis points at one decision and that really reflects the very unusual, exceptional circumstances that we find ourselves in.”
NZD/RBNZ – The New Zealand dollar failed to get a lift on Wednesday after the RBNZ hiked rates by 50 basis points as expected and mostly stuck by its commitment to continue tightening policy “at pace”.
Commenting on the meeting and future outlook, Capital Economics stated: “The committee acknowledged that clouds are appearing on the horizon. Our view remains that the ongoing housing downturn will weigh heavily on residential investment and constrain household spending, ultimately forcing the bank to stop hiking once the policy rate reaches 3.5% by year-end.”
USDCAD H4 Potential Bounce | 13th July 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 1.29525 where the horizontal pullback support and fibonacci confluence are to our 1st resistance at 1.30780 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may not break 1st support and head for 2nd support where the horizontal swing low support is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsCAD – The Canadian dollar weakened on Tuesday as oil prices tumbled. Still, losses for the currency were limited by growing expectations for an oversized interest rate hike this week by the Bank of Canada.
Commenting on CAD, Adam Button – chief currency analyst at ForexLive, stated: “There’s a reluctance to sell the loonie ahead of a Bank of Canada decision. A three-quarter-point hike is widely priced in but that could also be coupled with hints at further large hikes.”
USD/CAD Outlook (12 July 2022)The USDCAD continues to be capped by the 1.3050 level. Failing to break higher clearly over several attempts, the USDCAD is likely to trade lower again, back towards the 1.29 level
Apart from the current retracement of the DXY, markets could be pricing in the upcoming rate decision from the BoC.
On Wednesday, the BoC is expected to announce a rate hike of 75bps, in an attempt to stem inflation growth in Canada. The magnitude of the rate hike would match that of the Federal Reserve, and could have its anticipated impact, a stronger Canadian dollar.
Look for selling opportunities in the USDCAD, towards 1.29, with next support at 1.28.
USDCAD Swing Opportunity and BoC rate statement Wednesday!Hey traders, in this week we are monitoring USDCAD for a long term selling opportunity around 1.306 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCAD retest the 1.30500 🦐USDCAD on the 4h chart after the rejection by the weekly resistance retraced into a descending channel to the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
The price is now trading below a minor resistance and a trendline creating an interesting confluence zone.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for a potential break above of the point and in that case i will look for a nice long order until the resistance according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
--––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Potential Trade on USDCAD Based on Higher TF structure of USDCAD, It is yet to retest zones that have high liquidity needed for further downside move. This is a potential trade set up of the pair. TRADE what you see not what you feel.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS ONLY A POSSIBILITY not a guarantee. The point of technical analysis is to understand structure and have clarity of the charts not so much predicting the chart but equip us for better reaction.
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >8%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.3% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). As STIRs reprice lower, we are expecting that to act as a possible short-term negative driver for the USD. Even though lower STIRs should be negative for the USD, as a lot of hikes have been baked in, the growth concerns sparked further risk off concerns this past week, which supported the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. Even though US bonds are considered safe havens, the current high inflation has seen a strong stock-to-bond correlation and has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data (this week’s ISM Services and NFP) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or additionally any comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Apart from this past week, the USD has reacted cyclically to incoming data which could suggest markets is shifting from safe haven focus to the rising risks of recession. The worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad ISM Services PMI or NFP data this week could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close prior highs which acted as local tops for the USD. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for the Fed to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we do want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, we are expecting that the weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a higher likelihood of a less hawkish Fed due to higher recession risks. The opposite side to that though is that further concerns about the economy sees more safe haven inflows into the Dollar. Positioning is stretched, so we would prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalyst that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend.
CAD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
BASELINE
The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly optimistic and hawkish. We’ve missed most of the move higher in the CAD as our bias has kept us cautious, but the risks are still present and with the currency close to 9-year highs (at the index level) we are looking for opportunities to trade it lower on bearish catalyst.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. With more market participants noticing cracks in the housing markets, a less dramatic decline in house prices could ease some of those concerns and provide some upside. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC, big enough upside surprise in CPI or incoming jobs data (showing the jobs market is holding up good) that triggers further hike expectations could provide some short-term upside.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. Since a lot of policy tightening has been priced into STIR markets, any negative catalysts that triggers less hawkish BoC expectations (faster deceleration in growth, inflation or jobs) could trigger outsized downside for the CAD. In recent communication, Governor Macklem started to mention some hiccups in housing. Big downside surprises in house prices could trigger speculation of a less hawkish bank and trigger downside for the CAD.
BIGGER PICTURE
The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, we remain cautious on the currency, even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated. With a lot of good news priced in for the CAD and yields, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on short-term negative catalysts.
USDCAD H4 Potential Bounce | 8th July 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 1.29525 where the horizontal pullback support and fibonacci confluence are to our 1st resistance at 1.30780 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may not break 1st support and head for 2nd support where the horizontal swing low support is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDCAD set to stall at or break key resistance?Hello to our subscribers and the TradingView community welcome to Wednesday’s update. With oil tumbling and the USD jumping, we can only think of one pair that benefits from those two moves. The USDCAD is highly driven on both fronts, and the CAD is a commodity currency that generally tracks oil’s fortunes. The USD, well yeh enough said.
Last night we saw key moves on oil and the USD. Oil shed up to 10% and briefly traded below the $100 level. The USD shot higher, the index trading above 106.50.
Looking at the daily USDCAD chart below, we can see that price continues to trade in a new fast trend after buyers took control on the 8th of June. Since then, we have seen one reaction that set up demand and an HL late in June. Buying has continued into July, with traders retesting key resistance and supply areas that have stood since May.
The recent resistance and supply lines up with a longer-term level of supply /resistance that runs back to November 2020. This is our line in the sand that buyers must break to continue the current trend. If we see a break above these levels, it could be game on with 1.31 and 1.32 or higher a possibility. Fail, and we would look for a new move to possibly retest the 1.2850 area.
It’s really up to buyers and mainly USD momentum to continue to drive the current buyer move. The Fed minutes are due out today at 04:00 am AEST, and they could play a role in the current short-term USD pulse.
Good trading.
USDCAD: CAD data on Friday and potential downsides.Hey traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCAD for a long term selling opportunity around 1.31 zone, once we will receive any bearish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCAD H4 Potential Bounce | 6th July 2022On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our 1st support at 1.30064 where the horizontal pullback support is to our 1st resistance at 1.30799 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may break 1st support and head for 2nd support at 1.29529 where the horizontal pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
USDCAD Potential drop | 4th July 2022On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the 1st resistance at 1.29529 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1.28039 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may reverse off the 1st resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance at 1.30112 where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
USD/CAD Outlook (4 July 2022)Approach the USDCAD with flexibility...
The USDCAD has been reacting to the 1.29 level with volatility. Through Friday's trading session, the USDCAD broke above 1.29 due to strength in the DXY.
Current trading lower from the resistance of 1.29, I am anticipating further upside on the USDCAD with recent weaker than expected economic data releases for the CAD
Price could retest the 1.28 support before rebounding up, or, a downward move could be stalled to break higher from 1.29.
USDCAD H4 Potential Drop | 1st July 2022On the H4, with price recent break of the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the 1st resistance at 1.29124 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to the 1st support at 1.28224 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may reverse off the 1st resistance and rise to the 2nd resistance at 1.30077 where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
