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Usd-cad

USDCAD H4: Bearish outlook seen, reversal below 1.2890On the H4 time frame, prices are approaching the resistance zone at 1.2890, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels where we could see further downside below this zone to the intermediate support target at 1.2780 which coincides with the graphical support. A break below the 1.2780 intermediate support target could provide the bearish acceleration to the support area at 1.2680. Prices are holding below the Ichimoku cloud indicator as well, supporting the bearish bias.
Short
by T3-Consultancy
USDCAD Potential for Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with the price going along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from our sell entry at 1.28140, which is in line with swing low to our take profit at 1.27688, which is in line with the 161.8% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 1.29516, which is in line with the overlap resistance. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD M30: Bearish outlook seen, potential reversal on pullbackOn the M30 time frame, prices are holding below the descending channel where a pullback to the resistance zone at 1.2870, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement presents an opportunity to play the drop to the support target at 1.2780. This support zone lines up with the -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and descending channel’s support. Failure to hold below the 1.2780 resistance zone could see prices push higher to test the resistance zone at 1.2910. Prices are holding below the Ichimoku cloud as well, supporting the bearish bias.
Short
by T3-Consultancy
USDCAD Potential for Bearish Continuation | 26th July 2022On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending channel, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from our sell entry at 1.28239, which is in line with swing lows to our take profit at 1.27578, which is in line with the 161.8% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 1.29509, which is in line with the overlap resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDCAD H4: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 1.2820On the H4 time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from the resistance zone at 1.2950 which coincides with the graphical support-turned-resistance zone and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement with further downside risks seen. A break below the intermediate support level at 1.2820 would provide the bearish acceleration to our support zone at 1.2680. Ichimoku cloud is showing signs of pressure as well supporting the bearish bias.
Short
by T3-Consultancy
USDCAD Potential for Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with the price breaking the ascending channel, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from our sell entry at 1.28208, which is in line with swing lows to our take profit at 1.27605, which is in line with the 161.8% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 1.29472, which is in line with the overlap resistance. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD Potential For Bearish Continuation On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending channel , we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from our sell entry at 1.29215, which is in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement to our take profit at 1.28190, which is in line with the swing lows. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 1.29848, which is in line with the close swing high and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD Potential For Bearish Continuation | 25th July 2022On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending channel, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from our 1st support at 1.29152, which is in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement to our 2nd support at 1.28239, which is in line with the swing lows. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1.29866, which is in line with the close swing high and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.5% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). Even though lower STIR pricing should be negative for the USD, the growth concerns has sparked further risk off concerns and have seen safe haven flows into the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates. Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. The current high inflation has meant that bonds have not been sought as a safe haven with a strong stock-to-bond correlation, and this has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. The bias remains bullish , but with stretched tactical and CFTC positioning we don’t want to chase the USD higher right now. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data ( S&P Flash PMI this week) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The USD has been reacting as a safe haven with recent US data, but the worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at fresh cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close to prior highs which acted as local tops. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term, but finding strong enough bearish catalysts has been tricky recently. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for them to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any dovish pivots seem unlikely for now. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. We do also want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could start to weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a ‘Fed Put’, but based on where inflation is sitting any pivot seems still a while away and as the safe haven of choice any further recession focused downside in risk assets will likely continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning looking stretched, we prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalysts that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly hawkish, hiking 1.0% in July. The market’s reaction after the 1.0% was quite telling though, with the CAD pushing lower aggressively afterwards. This suggests that those players that were long the CAD took the hike as a good reason to take profit at the highs, or it could be the market pricing in a possible pause for the BoC in the months ahead because hiking so aggressive now means reaching a level to pause their cycle much faster. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC , any overly hawkish comments from the BoC this week could trigger some short-term upside, but with a 75bsp hike already priced the risk is more titled to the downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With a lot of tightening priced into STIRs, and a 100bsp hike providing no support for the CAD, we think risks are skewed lower, and any big downside surprises in CPI this week could offer decent shorting opportunities for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil , we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts.
by thunderpips
2
USDCAD Potential Bearish Continuation On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending trendline, the price may drop from our sell entry at 1.28358, which is in line with 127.2% fibonacci extension to our take profit at 1.27706, which is in line with 161.8% fibonacci extension . Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 1.29354, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and pullback resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
2
USDCAD Sell below the 1D MA50. Buy on Higher Low.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a 1 year Channel Up pattern as we've mentioned on our last analysis in early June: As you see, the rebound on the Channel's Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line worked perfectly as a buy entry and hit our Higher High target in short time. The price is now on a pull-back after the Higher Highs (broke above but still closed within the Channel Up) rejection and is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is holding as Support since June 10. A break below that level will be a short-term sell towards the inner Higher Lows zone (green shape) where we can enter a new buy just below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. Long-term target = 1.21370 or the 1.1 Fib (1.31980) as a new Higher High. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
USDCAD Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with the price breaking the ascending trendline, moving along the descending trend, and below ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from our sell entry at 1.28482, which is in line with 127.2% fibonacci extension to our take profit at 1.27725, which is in line with 161.8% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 1.29354, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and pullback resistance. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD approaching short term supportUSDCAD - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.2825 (stop at 1.2765) Previous support located at 1.2850. Previous resistance located at 1.2900. Price action looks to be forming a bottom. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 1.2900 will confirm the bullish momentum. Our profit targets will be 1.2975 and 1.3000 Resistance: 1.2900 / 1.2975 / 1.3000 Support: 1.2850 / 1.2825 / 1.2800 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Long
by OANDA
USDCAD Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with the price breaking the ascending trendline, the price may drop from our sell entry at 1.29455, which is in line with 127.2% fibonacci retracement to our take profit at 1.27705, which is in line with 161.8% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 1.29455, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and pullback resistance. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD Potential for Bearish Continuation | 21th July 2022On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending trendline, the price may drop from our sell entry at 1.28639, which is in line with 127.2% fibonacci retracement to our take profit, which is in line with 161.8% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and pullback resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet