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Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsCAD – The Canadian dollar strengthened to a two-week high on Wednesday as domestic inflation data bolstered expectations for another upsized interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada. Commenting on today’s report, Monex stated that “today’s CPI release confirms that the BoC took the right track when embarking on a 50 basis point hike last week. If May’s data shows the pace of shelter and food inflation continues to be robust, we expect the BoC to go back-to-back with 50 basis point hikes.” JPY – The Japanese Yen pulled off its 20-year lows on Wednesday, as increased nervousness around verbal intervention from Japanese authorities caused some participants to square their short bets. Nevertheless, market consensus remains for further weakness ahead for the safe-haven currency, with TD Securities noting that “many are watching 130 as a key level (for USDJPY), but we view 135+ as a more formidable line in the sand.”
by thunderpips
1
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Aggregate USD positioning remains close to 1 standard deviation above the mean, and close to prior tops where the USD topped out in previous cycles. That does not change the bullish outlook for the USD in the med-term but means that we would wait for pullbacks before initiating new longs with price at new cycle highs. 4. The Week Ahead The week will be thin in terms of US economic data, with the Philly Fed Business Index and S&P Global Flash PMIs the main highlights. The focus here for the USD will once again be on the growth side, where another fasterthan-expected slowdown could be supportive for the USD given its usual inverse correlation to global growth expectations. In the event that growth data surprise higher though, we should not be surprised if we see the USD push lower afterwards, but we should also not get complacent in the growth-inspired reactions in the USD given how stretched prices have been. What that means is that we need to be mindful of the possibility that current USD bulls take some profit as we push into major and key 2020 resistance levels (2-year highs and new cycle highs). As a growth hedge, the current environment of slowing growth and a hawkish Fed bodes well for the USD, which means the med-term bullish bias remains intact, but the risk to reward of chasing it at the highs is not very attractive right now, and means patience is not a bad idea right now. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The BoC delivered on expectations with a 50bsp hike as well as announcing a start to passive QT from the end of April by ending its reinvestment of maturing bonds. The bank upgraded both inflation and growth estimates as markets were expecting but did play a hawkish card by also increasing their neutral rate estimate to 2.5% from 2.25%. They acknowledged the growing risks from the current geopolitical situation but made it very clear that they are concerned about inflation and their hike of 50bsp showed that they think that policy needs to be normalized quickly (which some took as a hint that another 50bsp is on the way). The bank didn’t offer any additional clarity on QT but did note that they are not considering active QT of selling bonds just yet. Some conditionality also surfaced, where they explained that any sudden negative shocks to growth or inflation could see them pause hikes once they get closer towards neutral (Gov Macklem also added that they might need to get rates slightly above neutral in the current cycle). Overall, it was a more hawkish than expected BoC decision, but interesting to note that STIR markets did not price in another 50bsp following the meeting (only a 25bsp) hike. We remain of the opinion that we are close to peak hawkishness for the BoC and are looking for the last push higher in the CAD for opportunities to sell. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by many factors such as supply & demand, global demand recovery, and more recently geopolitical concerns. At current prices the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high, which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term. Reason for caution: Synchronised policy tightening targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus longs, steep backwardation curve, heightened implied volatility. We remain cautious oil, but geopolitics are a key driver and focus for Petro-currencies like the CAD (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Another bullish positioning signal with the recent positioning update. With Asset Manager net-longs still in the top 80 percentile we think markets are setting up a similar path compared to April 2021, Oct 2021 and Jan 2022 where markets were too aggressive to price in CAD upside only to see majority of it unwind later. For now, timing is very important, and we’re waiting for deeper pullbacks in AUDCAD & USDCAD for long opportunities. 5. The Week Ahead For the week ahead the main data highlight for the CAD will be March CPI figures on Wednesday. Inflation will be important to watch as always (especially in the current macro backdrop), but with the BoC hiking 50bsp last week this week’s print won’t be enough to change the BoC’s mind. The event can of course create short-term volatility in the events of a big miss or beat. Despite the BoC providing some signals that another 50bsp could be on the table, STIR markets have not jumped to price it. Thus, a solid beat might see markets pricing in a 50bsp hike while a surprise miss could see markets sticking to a 25bsp but being close to peak hawkishness also means a miss could be a catalyst to get back on the short side for CAD. The correlation between WTI and CAD has been mostly hit and miss over the past couple of weeks, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore Oil’s potential impact on CAD price action. Thus, the energy market will be in focus as usual where any oil-positive developments could support the CAD while any oil-negative news could pressure the CAD.
by thunderpips
USDCAD LONG - Buy Entry - H4 ChartUSDCAD LONG - Buy Entry - H4 Chart Buy @ Market Symbol: USDCAD Timeframe: H4 Type: BUY Entry Price: Buy @ Market Resistance @ 1.29249 Resistance @ 1.28011 Resistance @ 1.26499 Pivot Point Yearly @ 1.25382 Support @ 1.25215 Support @ 1.24575 ✅ If you liked this analysis, please consider Following and giving it a Thumbs Up 👍 ✅ If you have any feedback or questions, please leave a comment below as I answer each comment 💬 ✅ Wishing you enjoyable successful trading 🙏
ULong
by UnknownUnicorn35780991
USDCAD Potential Bearish Reversal |13th April 2022Price is near to the sell entry level of 1.26933 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . We see a potential for a bearish reversal to the take profit level of 1.25898 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator whereby price is near to the support level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
USDCAD Potential Bearish Reversal |13th April 2022Price is near to the sell entry level of 1.26933 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. We see a potential for a bearish reversal to the take profit level of 1.25898 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator whereby price is near to the support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
USDCAD Clear Channel Down until its invalidatedTime to update my USDCAD outlook made a month ago: As you see the Channel Down eventually prevailed and the divergence was created as the condition I set (breaking the dashed Lower Highs trend-line) was not fulfilled. The price is now testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A break above still has to overcome the top (Lower Highs) trend-line of the Channel Down. The RSI is also under Lower Highs pressure. A rejection there or on the 1D MA50, will extend the Channel Down pattern and the natural target will be the 1.22875 October 21 Low, currently the Support. A break above the Channel Down will be enough to restore the bullish trend on the long-term horizon, targeting the 1.33880 Resistance (October 29 2020 High). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
2
USDCAD Potential Bearish Reversal | 12th April 2022We see the potential for bearish reversal from pivot level of 1.26551 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards to take profit level of 1.25416 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at resistance level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Friday’s CFTC update had mixed changes with no clear sentiment shifts. Large Specs increased net longs while Leveraged Funds reducing recent net-shorts. Asset Managers slightly trimmed net longs but with Asset Manager longs in top 80 percentile going back to 2007 some unwind is to be expected at some stage. 4. The Week Ahead Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be in focus for the USD in the week ahead. The focus for the USD with the incoming data points this week will fall to the growth side. With close to 9 and an earlier start to QT priced in, the odds of an upside surprise to inflation providing policy-inspired upside is looking thin, but if an upside surprise starts to spark more growth concerns that could give the USD another lift. In the off chance that inflation surprises to the downside, the stretched upside we’ve seen in the USD alongside recent policy expectations could see some decent downside in the USD. But chances of a surprise lower seem very unlikely, but also means that the reaction could be exacerbated given the one-side expectations for higher inflation in. That also means that Retail Sales and Industrial Production will once again be in focus where both data points have been showing signs of faster deceleration with recent prints. The focus here for the USD will once again be on the growth side, where another faster-than-expected slowdown could be supportive for the USD given its usual inverse correlation to global growth expectations. In the event that Retail Sales and Industrial Production surprise higher, we should not be surprised if we see the USD push lower afterwards, but we should also not get complacent in the growth-inspired reactions in the USD given how stretched prices have been. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The BoC did not surprise at their March meeting by hiking rates to 0.50% from 0.25% and continuing the reinvestment phase regarding asset purchases. The bank noted that the Russia/Ukraine war was a new major uncertainty for the economy and that as a result inflation is now expected to be higher in the near-term. They were optimistic about the growth outlook though and reiterated that it expects further interest rate rises will be needed. On the QT side, Gov Macklem noted that around 40% of the bank's bond holdings were due to mature within two years, and suggested that balance sheet could shrink quickly, and also added that they will discuss ending the reinvestment phase and starting QT at the April meeting. The Governor also said he didn’t rule out the potential for 50bsp rate rises as oil is putting upside pressure on CPI, noting that oil prices around $110 per barrel could add another percentage point to inflation. With markets implying close to another 8 hikes this year, we remain cautious on the currency as a slowing US and Canadian economy means the bank could struggle to maintain its current hawkish path in the weeks and months ahead. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by many factors such as supply & demand, global demand recovery, and more recently geopolitical concerns. At current prices the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high, which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term. Reason for caution: Synchronised policy tightening targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus longs, steep backwardation curve, heightened implied volatility. We remain cautious oil, but geopolitics remain a key driver and focus for Petro-currencies like the CAD (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Another very bullish positioning signal with Large Specs and Asset Managers increasing longs and Leverage Funds decreasing shorts. With Asset Manager net-longs reaching top 80 percentile levels (2007 base year) we think markets are setting up a similar path compared to April 2021, Oct 2021 and Jan 2022 where markets were too aggressive to price in CAD upside only to see majority of it unwind later. For now, timing is very important, and we’ll wait for a potential hawkish BoC to use outsized strength for AUDCAD & USDCAD long opportunities. 5. The Week Ahead Hoping for a hawkish BoC and a 50bsp but not for buying opportunities in the CAD. Following decent economic data as well as comments from BoC’s Kozicki (who said the bank will be 'forceful' to fight ‘hot’ inflation) markets are pricing in close to a 90% chance of a 50bsp hike for this week’s meeting. At their previous meeting, Governor Macklem explained that starting QT would be the logical next step for policy, which means a QT announcement is also on the card and in line with consensus expectations. Given our med-term neutral outlook for the CAD, we are hoping for a hawkish BoC that not only delivers on a 50bsp hike as well as a QT start, but also providing signals of another 50bsp in June. The faster the market moves to price in another 50bsp hike as well as QT, the faster we’ll get to a peak hawkishness scenario. With >9 hikes expected by the end of 2022, a market that fully prices in another 50bsp hike after a hawkish BoC will such a lot of buyers in at the highs and when markets start repricing the curve lower that will set up good shorting opportunities against the CAD.
by thunderpips
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis The USD’s med-term bias remains bullish but positioning for large specs and asset managers are close to multiyear highs. That always increases risks of short-term corrections against the underlying trend. As the med-term bias is still bullish we don’t want to necessarily sell the USD into a slowing growth environment (see notes above), so we could rather opt to buy it versus weaker currencies which also seems stretched long (CAD comes to mind). CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The BoC did not surprise at their March meeting by hiking rates to 0.50% from 0.25% and continuing the reinvestment phase regarding asset purchases. The bank noted that the Russia/Ukraine war was a new major uncertainty for the economy and that as a result inflation is now expected to be higher in the near-term. They were optimistic about the growth outlook though and reiterated that it expects further interest rate rises will be needed. On the QT side, Gov Macklem noted that around 40% of the bank's bond holdings were due to mature within two years, and suggested that balance sheet could shrink quickly, and also added that they will discuss ending the reinvestment phase and starting QT at the April meeting. The Governor also said he didn’t rule out the potential for 50bsp rate rises as oil is putting upside pressure on CPI , noting that oil prices around $110 per barrel could add another percentage point to inflation . With markets implying close to another 8 hikes this year, we remain cautious on the currency as a slowing US and Canadian economy means the bank could struggle to maintain its current hawkish path in the weeks and months ahead. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by factors such as supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts), strong global demand recovery, and of course ‘higher for longer’ inflation . The geopolitical crisis saw upside in WTI that reached levels last seen since in 2008. At these levels the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term . Reason for that view is: Synchronised policy tightening from DM central banks targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus that is very long oil , steep backwardation curve (usually sees negative forward returns), heightened implied volatility . Even though we remain cautious on oil , the geopolitical risks remains a key focus for oil and thus for Petro-currencies like the CAD and NOK (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Very bullish positioning signals with large specs and leveraged funds trimming shorts and asset managers adding a big 20K net-longs. It seems markets are warning to the idea of a 50bsp hike from the BoC after recent BoC comments. We continue to think recent price action is potentially setting up a similar path compared to April and Oct 2021 where markets were too aggressive and optimistic to price in upside for the CAD, only to then see majority of it unwind later. We’ll use any outsized strength for AUDCAD long opportunities. 5. The Week Ahead There are two key economic releases in focus for the CAD this week with the Business Outlook Survey coming up on Monday and the Jobs report on Friday. With recent comments from the BoC turning up the hawkish rhetoric, the data this week will be eyed to get a better sense of whether the BoC will move by 25bsp or 50bsp at their next meeting. For the Business Outlook Survey markets participants are expecting a solid price due to increased commodity prices after the war broke out. Furthermore, the markets are looking for a continuation in the job gains, even though we’ve explained before that the previous print wasn’t all that it was made out to be with net-job gains not as spectacular as some made it out to be. After Friday’s solid US NFP, and after the recent BoC comments the jobs print and the Business Outlook Survey could be enough to push STIR markets over the edge and start pricing in a 50bsp. Even though that can certainly be positive for currency, we don’t have appetite to chase the CAD higher as it’s seen a lot of one-sided upsides which does make it vulnerable to correction. Our preferred longs are AUDCAD and USDCAD but waiting for a catalyst to trade looks like the best course of action right now.
by thunderpips
2
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy In March the Fed delivered on a 25bsp hike as expected with Fed’s Bullard the only dissenter voting for a 50bsp hike. The Dot Plot saw a big upgrade from 3 hikes (Dec) to 7 hikes for 2022, with the FFR seen reaching 2.75%- 3.0% in 2023 before falling in 2024. They did however lower their neutral rate from 2.5% to 2.4% which were a negative. Inflation forecasts for 2022 were raised to 4.1% (previous 2.7%) but med-term inflation saw less aggressive upgrades. Even though the overall message and projections were hawkish, the fact that GDP estimates were lowered to 2.8% from 4.0% shows the Fed expects their actions to impact demand and also reflect some of the recent geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed didn’t share new details on QT but noted that the decision to start selling assets will be made at a coming meeting (markets consensus sees a July start as likely) and added that good progress in QT discussions means a May announcement is likely. During the presser the Chair expressed his view that the economy is doing really well and, should be more than able to withstand the incoming rate hikes (a very similar situation like we had in 4Q18). When asked whether 50bsp hikes could be on the table, the chair explained that the FOMC has not made decision to front-load hikes and will keep an eye on incoming inflation data to determine their policy actions going forward, but of course added that every incoming meeting was live. Overall, the Fed was hawkish, but due to very strong pre-positioning and close to peak hawkishness priced for STIR markets the meeting saw a ‘sell-the-fact’ reaction across major asset classes. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slows (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown are a positive driver for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightened into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, however if the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative driver for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis The USD’s med-term bias remains bullish but positioning for large specs and asset managers are close to multiyear highs. That always increases risks of short-term corrections against the underlying trend. As the med-term bias is still bullish we don’t want to necessarily sell the USD into a slowing growth environment (see notes above), so we could rather opt to buy it versus weaker currencies which also seems stretched long (CAD comes to mind). 4. The Week Ahead The USD had a solid week, trimming prior losses and getting close to the top of recent highs. The upside made sense from a technical perspective, after bouncing from key support around 97.70, but we do think there was more behind the upside. As the USD is usually inversely correlated to the growth outlook, the slowing in a few key economic data points didn’t bode well for the growth outlook. Despite another solid jobs report, other growth metrics slowed ( Personal Income , Personal Consumption, ISM Mfg PMI) which adds to other data which has also been slowing down (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment and Confidence). All of this doesn’t mean a recession is imminent (even though the infamous 2s10s yield spread has inverted), it simply means that the expected slowdown in growth is showing up, but it’s showing a faster than expected move, which is important. After the dismal ISM Mfg PMI report (where the headline slowed more than expected while Prices Paid jolted higher – a typical stagflation print), the incoming ISM Services PMI print on Tuesday will be an important one to keep on the radar. As the Services sector makes up close to 70% of GDP, any big surprises (either good or bad) will get attention from the market. It’s important to see the USD in the right context though. Usually, bad data should be bad for the USD as it means less need for tightening policy from the Fed, but in the current context the focus is on growth, where an aggressive Fed mixed with a slowing economy usually sees a positive expected return for the global reserve currency. With that context in mind, the FOMC meeting minutes could ‘spook’ markets even further, but that seems like a stretched after so many Fed speakers voiced their opinions after the meeting. Geopolitical risks are still on the radar, and as the USD is a safe haven, any major escalations (expected to be USD positive) or de-escalations (expected to be USD negative) will also be in focus. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy The BoC did not surprise at their March meeting by hiking rates to 0.50% from 0.25% and continuing the reinvestment phase regarding asset purchases. The bank noted that the Russia/Ukraine war was a new major uncertainty for the economy and that as a result inflation is now expected to be higher in the near-term. They were optimistic about the growth outlook though and reiterated that it expects further interest rate rises will be needed. On the QT side, Gov Macklem noted that around 40% of the bank's bond holdings were due to mature within two years, and suggested that balance sheet could shrink quickly, and also added that they will discuss ending the reinvestment phase and starting QT at the April meeting. The Governor also said he didn’t rule out the potential for 50bsp rate rises as oil is putting upside pressure on CPI , noting that oil prices around $110 per barrel could add another percentage point to inflation . With markets implying close to another 8 hikes this year, we remain cautious on the currency as a slowing US and Canadian economy means the bank could struggle to maintain its current hawkish path in the weeks and months ahead. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s impressive post-covid recovery has been driven by factors such as supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts), strong global demand recovery, and of course ‘higher for longer’ inflation . The geopolitical crisis saw upside in WTI that reached levels last seen since in 2008. At these levels the risk to demand destruction and stagflation is high which means we remain cautious of oil in the med-term . Reason for that view is: Synchronised policy tightening from DM central banks targeting demand, slowing growth, consensus that is very long oil , steep backwardation curve (usually sees negative forward returns), heightened implied volatility . Even though we remain cautious on oil , the geopolitical risks remains a key focus for oil and thus for Petro-currencies like the CAD and NOK (even though the CAD-Oil correlation has been hit and miss). 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Very bullish positioning signals with large specs and leveraged funds trimming shorts and asset managers adding a big 20K net-longs. It seems markets are warning to the idea of a 50bsp hike from the BoC after recent BoC comments. We continue to think recent price action is potentially setting up a similar path compared to April and Oct 2021 where markets were too aggressive and optimistic to price in upside for the CAD, only to then see majority of it unwind later. We’ll use any outsized strength for AUDCAD long opportunities. 5. The Week Ahead There are two key economic releases in focus for the CAD this week with the Business Outlook Survey coming up on Monday and the Jobs report on Friday. With recent comments from the BoC turning up the hawkish rhetoric, the data this week will be eyed to get a better sense of whether the BoC will move by 25bsp or 50bsp at their next meeting. For the Business Outlook Survey markets participants are expecting a solid price due to increased commodity prices after the war broke out. Furthermore, the markets are looking for a continuation in the job gains, even though we’ve explained before that the previous print wasn’t all that it was made out to be with net-job gains not as spectacular as some made it out to be. After Friday’s solid US NFP, and after the recent BoC comments the jobs print and the Business Outlook Survey could be enough to push STIR markets over the edge and start pricing in a 50bsp. Even though that can certainly be positive for currency, we don’t have appetite to chase the CAD higher as it’s seen a lot of one-sided upsides which does make it vulnerable to correction. Our preferred longs are AUDCAD and USDCAD but waiting for a catalyst to trade looks like the best course of action right now.
by thunderpips
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