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Usd-cad

USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Jan FOMC decision was hawkish on multiple fronts. The statement signalled a March hike as expected, but Chair Powell portrayed a very hawkish tone. Even though Powell said they can’t predict the rate path with certainty, he stressed the economy is in much better shape compared to the 2015 cycle and that will have implications for the pace of hikes (more and faster). Furthermore, he explained that there is ‘quite a bit of room’ to raise rates without damaging employment, which suggests upside risks to the rate path. A big question going into the meeting was how concerned the Fed was about recent equity market volatility . But the Chair explained that markets and financial conditions are reflecting policy changes in advance and that in aggregate the measures they look at isn’t showing red lights. Thus, any ‘Fed Put’ is much further away and inflation is the Fed’s biggest concern right now. The Chair also didn’t rule out the possibility of a 50bsp hike in March or possibly hiking at every meeting this year, which was hawkish as it means the Fed wants optionality to move more aggressive if they need to. We didn’t get new info on the balance sheet and Powell reiterated that they’re contemplating a start of QT after hiking has begun and they’ll discuss this in coming meetings. Overall, the tone and language was lot more hawkish than the Dec meeting and more hawkish than consensus was expecting. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. Thus, USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slow (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). With expectations that growth and inflation will decelerate this year that should be a positive input for the USD. However, incoming data will also be important in relation to the ‘Fed Put’. There are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightening aggressively going into an economic slowdown. As long as growth data slows and the Fed stays aggressive that is a positive for the USD, but if it causes a dovish Fed pivot and lower rate repricing it would be a negative input for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis The USD came under some pressure this week, mainly due to overdue mean reversion, recovery in risk assets and of course the surprise hawkish actions by the BoE and more specifically the ECB. Keep in mind that half of the USD’s drop this week occurred outside the CFTC reference period which would explain more limited unwinding in net-longs, and we would expect this number to be much bigger next week. With positioning still in net-long territory for leveraged funds and large specs, and with leveraged funds sitting on a sizeable net-short in the EUR the recent hawkish pivot from the ECB could see some further damage for the USD in the short-term. 4. The Week Ahead After last week’s much better than expected Average Hourly Earnings data out of the US, the main event for the USD as well as markets in general will be the January CPI print for the US scheduled for Wednesday. With another month of upside surprises for inflation data in other global economies, the markets will be watching the US CPI for Jan very closely. Right now, Fed policy has tunnel vision for inflation , and with the surprise beat in Friday’s NFP as well as the surprise punchy upward revisions, the labour market won’t deter the Fed from going all-in to fight inflation . The big dynamic to watch for is wages. Friday’s Average Hourly Earnings print of 5.7% was much higher than expected and saw an immediate jolt higher in US bond yields, with Fed Fund Futures now comfortably pricing in well over 5 hikes by the end of the year. Starting the new year, the biggest reason for expecting a deceleration in inflation was firstly due to base effects, secondly due to expectations that supply chain disruptions ease, and very importantly that commodity prices being cooling down. Out of these three, the last one has not happened yet with oil prices continuing their grind higher (which adds upside risks to headline numbers). Two important components to keep on the radar is wages and shelter prices, which for some means there is very little downside risk to this week’s CPI . How will the USD likely react? Recently the USD has reaction cyclically towards inflation data, which means a solid beat should be supportive, but at the same time a miss would be a far more attractive shorting opportunity, especially against the EUR after the ECB’s pivot . CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy Despite STIR markets pricing in close to an 80% chance of a 25bsp hike, the BoC chose to leave rates unchanged at their Jan meeting. However, the bank removed its extraordinary forward guidance and said they now think the economic slack has been absorbed (previously expected to occur somewhere in the middle quarters of 2022). The bank also explained that they expect rates will need to rise based on the progress of inflation, and Gov Macklem explained their only reason for not hiking was uncertainty surrounding Omicron. The statement gave a clear signal that a March hike is on the table. Furthermore, on the balance sheet the bank delivered on expectations by noting they will likely exit the reinvestment phase as rates begin to rise. Even though 2022 inflation projections were upgraded, the bank also downgraded growth forecasts (which in our view remains a key reason why current STIR market expectations are not realistic). Thus, the meeting had both dovish and hawkish elements to it, and thus means we are still happy to hold to a neutral bias for the CAD. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by various factors such as supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts), strong global demand recovery, and of course ‘higher for longer’ than expected inflation. Even though Oil has traded to new 7-year highs, we think the current Russia/Ukraine tensions and recent tight capacity concerns are the biggest contributors to the upside as our cautious view going into Q1 & Q2 remain intact. The drivers keeping us cautious are A hawkish Fed targeting demand, slowing growth and inflation, lower inflation expectations (due to the Fed), a possible supply surplus in 1Q22, and a consensus that is very long oil (growing calls for $100 WTI). If our concerns do materialize into downside for oil prices it should put pressure on the CAD and other Petro-currencies like the NOK. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis We think the recent price action and positioning data has seen the CAD take a very similar path compared to April and Oct 2021 where markets were way too aggressive and optimistic to price in upside for the CAD only to see majority of it unwind. We think the CAD is setting up for a similar disappointment with money markets too aggressive on rate expectations for 2022, but oil prices remain a big supporting driver to keep in mind. 5. The Week Ahead A very quiet week for the CAD from an economic data point of view. We do have a speech coming up from Gov Macklem, but he is unlikely to offer anything new that we have not already heard. Thus, the biggest focus or drivers for the BoC in the week ahead will likely be Oil prices and overall risk sentiment. In terms of risk sentiment, with US CPI in the mix, as well as bond markets crashing hard, credit spreads starting to widen and real yields pushing higher across major economies, the uncertainty is starting to pile on for risk assets which means caution on that front will be important for the CAD and the other high betas in the week ahead. In terms of oil prices, the concerns of tighter capacity for major suppliers as well as bad weather and geopolitical stress has kept oil prices well buoyed in the short-term which should be a positive input for the Petro-currencies like the CAD and NOK. However, we remain neutral on the CAD and med-term concerned about oil from here which means we maintain our upside bias for the AUDCAD for now.
by thunderpips
2
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The US dollar fell on Monday, as investors consolidated gains ahead of the closely-watched monthly employment report later this week, taking a pause after a furious rally that took currency to a 1-1/2 year high on Friday. Commenting on USD’s performance, Western Union noted that “a mix of consolidation and month-end position-squaring has nudged the dollar off its highs. An events-filled week ahead threatens to keep market volatility high. The buck appears to have peaked for now as Friday’s jobs report is forecast to show another month of tepid hiring.” CAD – The Canadian dollar strengthened on Monday, clawing back half of its January decline, as oil prices rose and equity markets globally rebounded after a volatile start to the year.
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
6
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Jan FOMC decision was hawkish on multiple fronts. The statement signalled a March hike as expected, but the press conference from Chair Powell portrayed a very hawkish message. Even though Powell said they can’t predict the rate path with certainty, he stressed the economy is in much better shape compared to the 2015 cycle and that will have implications for the pace of hikes. Furthermore, the Chair explained that there is ‘quite a bit of room’ to raise rates without dampening employment, which suggests upside risks to the rate path, especially coming from Powell. A big question markets wanted an answer for was whether the Fed was concerned about recent equity market volatility . However, the Chair explained that markets and financial conditions are reflecting policy in advance and stressed that in aggregate their measures they look at is not showing red lights. This was a clear message to markets that any ‘Fed Put’ is much further away and that inflation is the biggest focus point for the Fed right now. The Chair also didn’t rule out the possibility of hiking 50bsp in March or possibly hiking at every meeting this year, which was seen as hawkish as it means the Fed is looking for optionality to move more aggressive if they need to. On the balance sheet , we didn’t really get new info and the Chair reiterated that they are contemplating a start of QT after the hiking cycle has begun but also reiterated that they will discuss this in coming meetings. Overall, the tone and language used by the Chair were a lot more hawkish than the Dec meeting and more hawkish than some were hoping for. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s usage around the world means it usually has an inverse correlation to the health of the global economy and global trade. The USD usually gains strength when growth & inflation both slow (disinflation) and loses ground when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, with expectations that both growth and inflation will decelerate this year, both in the US and the globe, that should be a positive input for the USD in the med-term . However, incoming data will also be important in relation to the ‘Fed Put’. There are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightening aggressively going into an economic slowdown. So, incoming data will be crucial to watch. As long as growth data slows and the Fed stays aggressive that would be a positive environment for the USD, but if it causes the Fed to pivot more dovish and causes a rate repricing in money markets it would be seen as a negative input for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +427 with a net non-commercial position of +36861. The shortterm unwinding of stretched USD longs played out as expected at the start of the year but was also short-lived in the midst of the recent strong risk off sentiment in certain parts of the market and of course the continued hawkish stance from the Fed. 4. The Week Ahead In the week ahead the party starts all over again with a new month which means we’ll get new ISM PMI releases as well as the Jan NFP report. It’s important to keep the current economic climate in mind when looking at possible reaction functions for the USD. Usually, positive data should be USD positive and negative data USD negative when the Fed is busy with a hiking cycle, but right now there are growing fears that economic data has been slowing much faster than expected and means the Fed could be on its way to make the same mistake it did back in the end of 2018. As long as those fears persist, we might see the USD having two different reaction functions to growth and inflation data. Reacting inverse to growth data but acting correlated to inflation data. That makes this week’s incoming ISM data very interesting as the Dec data decelerated much faster than expected on the growth side, and a further miss might spark more fears about a faster slowdown. The tricky part for the USD in the week ahead is that both the ISM prints as well as the NFP report has inflation components with the ISM priced paid components and the Average Hourly Earnings on the NFP side. If growth data slows very fast that could be USD positive, but if inflation data starts decelerating much faster that could also be USD negative as it means less need for aggressive Fed policy. A tricky one for the week ahead. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy Despite STIR markets pricing in close to an 80% chance of a 25bsp hike, the BoC chose to leave rates unchanged at their Jan meeting. However, the bank removed its extraordinary forward guidance and said they now think the economic slack has been absorbed (previously expected to occur somewhere in the middle quarters of 2022). The bank also explained that they expect rates will need to rise based on the progress of inflation, and Gov Macklem explained their only reason for not hiking was uncertainty surrounding Omicron. The statement gave a clear signal that a March hike is on the table. Furthermore, on the balance sheet the bank delivered on expectations by noting they will likely exit the reinvestment phase as rates begin to rise. Even though 2022 inflation projections were upgraded, the bank also downgraded growth forecasts (which in our view remains a key reason why current STIR market expectations are not realistic). Thus, the meeting had both dovish and hawkish elements to it, and thus means we are still happy to hold to a neutral bias for the CAD. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by various factors such as supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts), strong global demand recovery, and of course ‘higher for longer’ than expected inflation. Even though Oil has traded to new 7-year highs, we think the current Russia/Ukraine tensions are the biggest contributor to the upside as our cautious going into the first two quarters of 2022 remain intact. The drivers keeping us cautious are A hawkish Fed targeting demand, slowing growth and inflation, lower inflation expectations (due to the Fed), a possible supply surplus in 1Q22, and a consensus that is very long oil (growing call for $100 WTI). If our concerns do materialize into downside for oil prices it should put pressure on the CAD and other Petro-currencies like the NOK. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +4825 with a net non-commercial position of +12317. We think the recent price action and positioning data has seen the CAD take a very similar path compared to April and Oct 2021 where markets were way too aggressive and optimistic to price in upside for the CAD only to see majority of it unwind. We think the CAD is setting up for a similar disappointment with money markets too aggressive on rate expectations for 2022, but oil prices remain a big supporting driver to keep in mind. 5. The Week Ahead Main events for the CAD in the upcoming week will be the Jan Jobs report on Friday, OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday and of course any further Russia/Ukraine developments that affects Oil prices. On the OPEC side, the cartel is widely expected to continue with their current plans of increase supply by 400K BPD per month, with March currently expecting to be the same. It will be interesting to see whether OPEC provides any comments on the current Russia/Ukraine issues as Russia holds over 30% market share in Europe for both gas and oil. Furthermore, we also have Jobs data coming up on Friday where markets expect the recent Omicron restrictions to catch up with the labour market with consensus looking for a contraction of -125K and the Unemployment Rate inching up to 6.2% from the prior of 5.9%. A bigger-than-expected miss on the labour front could see markets stepping down from their current aggressive policy path expectations. The one big caveat to the labour print is that the forecast distribution is extremely wide for this print, ranging between - 10k and -175K, which means there are plenty of disappointment to be had in the event of a surprise, both higher and lower. On the Russia/Ukraine front we’ll be watching for any de-escalation or escalation in tensions, where de-escalation is expected to be a negative driver for oil and escalation expected to be a positive driver.
by thunderpips
9
UPDATE 3.0: USDCAD [D] Technical Analysis [BUY] [190122] @4:1 Good evening people… If you have been following my initial trade idea for the USDCAD on the Daily chart Then you will be basking in the joys of the progression of this particular trade. It’s been just over a week since the initial idea was posted and we are currently at a 4:1 profit Backing up my reasons for keeping the Target Profit afar when the trade is placed So, over the last couple days - I have began to manage the trade With stop was moved in to a profit zone @1.255 Additionally, upon price closing above the 1.263 zone Price returned to this zone and formed a Pin-Bar - Although I did set a Buy-Order at the 50% FIB retracement of this Pin, It did not trigger. Therefore, marginally missing out on further profits Either way, I am very happy with the markets upward progression. With this, we should be targeting the Resistance @1.276 before any decision would be made to close out or hold the position. Reaching this Resistance would provide us with around a 5:1 return on this trade. This being over a period of a week or so. Once again - Much love for tuning in …
Long
by fxhole_
2
USDCAD potential for bullish continuation | 27th JanPrice has recently broken out of a descending trendline and near buy entry price of 1.26961 which is also 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 1.28131 which is also 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading above it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
USDCAD Higher Time Frame Bullish Outlook Hello everyone: USDCAD's higher time frame is looking very clean for further upside opportunity in the weeks/months to come. After the initial bullish impulse phase from 2016, price falls into this current large parallel channel structure on the higher time frames, with a few swings highs and lows. We can clearly see a few corrections and impulses within this larger structure, which makes it a good sign for possible continuation from the previous impulse phase. We can also see price has created a double bottoms and there is reversal price action form the bottom of the HTF structure, a nice reversal impulse up move from the price. On the lower time frame, after the reversal impulse up, We can see a continuation correction to give us a good confirmation for further up move. IF the LTF correction breaks up further, and expect further upside if bullish price action continues. Thank you
Long
by jojofang0901
27
USDCAD - Down Movement on most TFs expected - MTFA*** Trade at your own risk! *** *** Not every idea is also traded by us *** Hi Traders! In the following you'll see a Multiple Timeframe Analysis. It includes a screenshot and afterwards some bullet points. Monthly TF: - Price was in a Downtrend --> Big Direction - Then it pulled back --> Healthy for a Trend - A consolidation started --> Ready to for a change - It made a double Top --> shows rejection for higher prices --> Break of Support + Downmovement is expected Weekly TF: - Price was moving down - It respected a descending TL - It broke out of the TL - It makes a Pullback of Down-movement Two Possibilities: 1) Break of Trendline Buyers will probably loose their strongest structure for now. Sellers will probably get a bias to sell. --> Downmovement 2) Break of Resistance Sellers will probably get weak. Price shows that it respects higher prices. Daily TF: - Break of daily Support - Successful Retest is finished --> Break of ascending TL expected --> Down-movement expected H4-TF: - Market pulled back to retest the Breakout - It went down a bit and made a Shooting Star Candle - This Shooting Star shows Rejection for higher Prices --> Down-movement expected If you have any questions, another Point of View or anything else to share, don't hesitate to comment! Thanks and successful Trading :-)!
Short
by swissmoneymakers
UPDATE 2.0: USDCAD [D] Technical Analysis [BUY] [190122] Hello People - Just another update... After reaching the highs of the 1.27 Resistance - I think it is about time to move that stop up to a break-even. Currently, price is sitting at a healthy 2:1 profit Yes, over the days trading, price has become slightly bearish, but we have to stay positive on this one. From the Weekly TF, it does look like a correction for the long-term sellers - But, I am not one of those - Hence my Long Position Looking at the updated Daily Chart - You can see the identification of various theories to support this Buy for a further upward progression. Such as; Price has closed on the daily above the 1.262 Furthermore, yesterday closed as a test as new support Also, and after extensive viewing of the Daily Chart - It has been found that there are a number of areas that provide evidence of a Chart Pattern - But, with a difference [B ut, only because this is an update, which is now a free trade] On the Daily, I have found that over the last year Price has retraced to the 50% FIB on a number of occasions and always when the market is in a strong trend Moving on to current Price Action and the Temporary S&R that I have marked out - We can see that the market is currently testing the 38 FIB Personally, I am thinking the market will retract to the 1.258 zone [50 FIB ] and return to pushing north of the chart In this case - Ill be looking for some Price Action in the form of a CS Failing that, and a further bearish progression would permit a review the position and update the post. Thanks for tuning in people - PEACE OUT! ...
Long
by fxhole_
USDCAD potential for reversal | 25th JanPrice is near buy entry price of 1.26234 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 1.27645 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection . Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading above it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
USDCAD potential for reversal | 25th JanPrice is near buy entry price of 1.26234 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 1.27645 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading above it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
USDCAD bearish dip! | 24th Jan 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our area of sell entry at 1.26023 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 1.24549 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension . Prices are facing resistance in our Ichimoku cloud support and also RSI are at levels where dips previously occurred, further supporting our bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Fed turned a lot more hawkish than expected in Dec. They doubled the pace of tapering to $30 billion per month which will see QE concluded by March 2022 as was widely expected. Surprisingly though the Summary of Econ Projections showed the median dot plot pencilled in 3 hikes for 2022 (up from the previous 1), confirming Fed Fund Future expectations. Fed Chair Powell explained they hadn’t decided whether to pause between the end of tapering and a first hike but reiterated that rates will likely only rise when QE has concluded. Another positive shift was Powell’s comments that they could raise rates before full employment has been met due to high inflation, and stated that with inflation above target, they cannot wait too long to get to maximum employment as current inflation levels is seen as a threat to max employment. The hawkish tilt went further to note that the bank started discussing the balance sheet but said no decisions were made on when QT might commence. Even though the dots projected 3 hikes for 2022, the updated rate trajectory only showed 1 additional hike over the forecast horizon, which combined with a lower terminal rate was less hawkish than some had feared. Nonetheless, the meeting marked a material hawkish shift from the Fed, putting it on par with the likes of the RBNZ. The meeting minutes also revealed that the QT discussion saw majority of members thinking it appropriate to start QT soon after rate lift off and another more hawkish tilt than expected from the Fed. 2. Global Risk Outlook The growth & inflation outlook for the US and the globe will be key for the USD. The USD is often inversely correlated to global growth & inflation, doing bad during reflationary environments (growth and inflation accelerating), while the USD usually does well in disinflationary environments (growth and inflation decelerating). Thus, with expectations that both growth and inflation will decelerate this year, both in the US and the globe, that should be a positive input for the USD in the med-term. However, incoming data will also be important to see how the Fed responds to it, where a worsening outlook that deteriorates much faster than expected could see a dovish pivot from the Fed which could mean downside for the USD if money markets start pricing out hikes (especially with markets now expected just over 4 hikes for 2022). 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -1458 with a net non-commercial position of +36434. The shortterm unwinding of stretched USD longs played out exactly as expected but was also short-lived in the midst of the recent strong risk off moves in certain parts of the market. Surprisingly, the big flush lower in the USD has not showed up in the CFTC data as expected with very little change to the overall positioning. In the current context, the stretched long positioning makes the USD vulnerable in the event that the Fed does not deliver the very hawkish tone expected of them in this week’s upcoming FOMC meeting. 4. The Week Ahead For the USD the big focus this week will be overall risk sentiment and the first FOMC meeting for 2022 on Wednesday, followed by Friday’s Core PCE and Employment Cost index prints. The latter will of course be important given the inflation outlook with more emphasis recently on the odds of a possible wage spiral affect. However, the main event will be the FOMC, where the meeting is expected to serve as a signalling meeting to pave the way for a 25bsp hike in March and to provide more clarity on the bank’s balance sheet plans. With a March hike sitting close to a 90% probability, and markets already fully pricing in 4 hikes this year, the bar has been set quite high for a hawkish surprise. However, there are also some participants that think the recent econ data (CPI YY >7% and Unemployment <4%) justifies an early end to the Fed’s QE program instead of allowing tapering to run it’s planned course until March. That would certainly give a more hawkish feel to the meeting and could see markets pricing in an even earlier and faster pace of QT if confirmed. But, if the Fed does not deliver on an early end to QE, and does not offer a strong enough signal that the 4 hikes priced by the market is justified, we could be in store for some moderation in the rise in yields and the USD and could also prove to be supportive for equities which ended last week in quite bad shape. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy In Dec the BoC left rates at 0.25% as expected and maintained forward guidance where it expects rates at current levels until the middle quarters of 2022. This disappointed some participants who were looking for the bank to announce that the output gap could be closed in 1Q22. On inflation, even though the bank still thinks it will ease from 2H22, they did drop ‘temporary’ when referring to price pressures, similar to the Fed’s removing the word ‘transitory’. The bank took a slightly bleaker view on growth, pointing to both the new Omicron variant and flooding in British Columbia as possibly drags on growth and something that could elevate supply chain issues. What disappointed markets a bit was that the bank said none of the recent developments warrants any further adjustments to normalization, which disappointed the bulls looking for a possible hawkish tilt. The bank noted that employment is back to pre-covid levels, and economic momentum in Q4 were solid, but the overall tone wasn’t enough to convince markets of a Jan hike at that time, but markets have since then continued to ramp up hike bets with money markets pricing in a >70% chance of a hike at the Jan meeting and pricing in close to 6 hikes for 2022. Keep in mind that the bank was already concerned about growth before the recent Omicron restrictions, which means the likelihood of them bringing forward output gap projections seems unlikely and for that reason we think is setting up for a disappointment and possible repricing lower in money market expectations in the upcoming meetings. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by various factors such as supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts), the strong global recovery which led to an improved demand, and of course ‘higher for longer’ than expected inflation. Even though Oil has traded to new 7-year highs last week, we are still cautious going into the first two quarters of 2022. The drivers keeping us cautious are expectations of a more hawkish Fed, slowing growth and inflation, lower inflation expectations (due to the Fed), a possible supply surplus in 1Q22, and a consensus that is very long oil (growing call for $100 WTI). If our concerns do materialize into downside for oil prices it should put pressure on the CAD. There have however been short-term drivers supporting prices and has kept the CAD more supported than we would have expected. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the CAD. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +14868 with a net non-commercial position of +7492. We think the recent price action and positioning data has seen the CAD take a very similar path compared to April and Oct 2021 where markets were way too aggressive to price in upside for the CAD only to see majority of it unwind. We think the CAD is setting up for a similar disappointment with money markets way too aggressive on rate expectations for 2022, and the BoC will be a key test for the currency this week. 5. The Week Ahead The main event for the CAD this week is the BoC meeting scheduled for Wednesday. From the start of the year, we’ve been growing more concerned with the CAD as money markets have been ramping up hike bets for the bank with 6 hikes priced for 2022 and a surprise 25bsp hike priced at an >80% probability at this week’s meeting. Have oil prices supported the CAD? Yes. Have the data been decent? Yes. However, recent data and oil prices does not mean the bank will suddenly have changed their mind about the output gap being closed, especially with the recently announced Omicron restrictions. Thus, if the bank was concerned about growth just a month ago, it’s unlikely that the picture changed drastically enough for the bank to hike rates this week. Thus, we think the overly aggressive hike bets means there is a very high bar for the BoC to surprise the market on the hawkish side, and means we see a higher chance for downside than upside for the CAD, unless the bank delivers a surprise 25bsp hike this week.
by thunderpips
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