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Usd-cad

USD/CAD Bearish Continues. USD/CAD got rejected at the 1.2800 psychological level, which also happens to fall below the 200-day SMA on Jan 6, these technical levels kickstart the pair bearish phase. The price fell by almost 200point before hitting another Quasimodo support zone at 1.2630, which creates a ripple in the price and gives a chance for the buyers to push the up to 1.2700 that falls below the 50.0% fib correction zone. A short position is good after another correcting hit the 21 or 50 days SMAs.
Short
by Adefxc
USDCAD potential for further downtrend | 12th JanPrice broke out of the ascending trendline and near sell entry price of 1.26170 which is also 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 1.24402 which is 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
#USDCAD approaching pivot, potential for a drop! Description : On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 1.26939 which is in line with horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to 1st support at 1.26234, which is in line with horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance at 1.27301, which coincides with horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 1.26939 Why we like it: Horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 1st Support: 1.26234 Why we like it: Horizontal swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement 1st Resistance: 1.27301 Why we like it: Horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy A lot more hawkish than expected is how the Fed’s Dec decision can be summed up. The Fed doubled the pace of tapering to $30 billion per month which will see the QE program conclude by March 2022 as was widely expected. The big change came from the updated Summary of Econ Projections where the median dot plot pencilled in 3 hikes for the Fed next year (up from just shy of 1 hike projected just 3 months ago), confirming money market and Fed Fund Future expectations. Fed Chair Powell explained they hadn’t decided whether to pause between the end of tapering and a first hike but reiterated that rates will likely only rise when the taper has concluded. Another positive shift was Powell’s comments that the balance of goals means it could possibly raise rates before full employment has been met due to high inflation , and also stated that with inflation above target, they cannot wait too long to get to maximum employment with current levels of inflation described as a threat to full employment. The hawkish tilt even went so far that the bank started to discuss the balance sheet but said they didn't make any decisions on when the balance sheet would shrink. Even though the dots projected 3 hikes for 2022, the updated rate hike trajectory only showed 1 additional hike over the forecast horizon, which combined with a lower terminal rate was less hawkish than some had feared. Nonetheless, with this recent meeting the Fed is now the second most hawkish CB after the RBNZ and should be supportive for the USD in the med-term . This past week’s meeting minutes also revealed that the bank has started discussing QT with majority of members thinking it’s appropriate to start QT soon after rate lift off which was a much more hawkish tilt than expected from the Fed. 2. Real Yields With the hawkish tilt from the Fed, it should see breakeven inflation rates fall faster than US10Y as a more aggressive Fed should see med-term growth & inflation expectations fall. Rising real yields should be good for the USD as well and one to keep on the radar, especially after this weeks divergence. 3. Global Risk Outlook What happens to growth and inflation this year will be key for the USD, not only growth and inflation in the US though but also on a global scale. The USD usually does bad in reflationary environments (where growth and inflation accelerates globally), while the USD usually does very well when growth and inflation decelerates globally). So, expectations that we are seeing a slowdown in both of them globally should be a positive input for the USD in the med-term . However, it also means there will be a lot of focus on the incoming data to see how it develops. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +2289 with a net non-commercial position of +39078. With large specs net-longs close to 2019 highs and leverage funds USD longs also looking stretched, and with a lot of the Fed hawkishness arguably priced in, the USD has been looking vulnerable to some unwinding, which is what we saw this past week. Even though the Fed remains on a hawkish path (for now) and the USD remains bullish from a fundamental outlook point of view, with positioning where it is right now, any recovery in risk sentiment or bad economic data in the US relative to the rest of the world could continue to add some pressure on the Greenback in the short-term. However, it will take a lot to change the overall fundamental bullish outlook given what markets are expecting from 2022. 5. The Week Ahead In the week ahead all eyes will be on US CPI as the main event. Even though there are expectations for inflation to slow, we are not there yet as participants are expecting yet another strong increase for the YY print with the headline expected to push above 7% and the Core measure expected well above 5%. Are these numbers that will scare the markets or the Fed, arguably not, because what more is there to price in. With markets already pricing in 3 hikes (a high probability of a first one in March) and pricing in higher probabilities of more than 3 hikes alongside QT, this week’s print needs to be something truly exceptional to see even more priced in. Thus, just like with NFP last week, we are anticipating more of a downside risk for the USD given the very high bar set by the markets. With everything that has been priced in for the Fed already, an unexpected beat can open up some decent downside in the USD. Just keep in mind that will be tactical trades as the fundamental outlook remains bullish for the USD. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL 1. Monetary Policy In Dec the BoC left rates at 0.25% as expected and maintained forward guidance where it expects rates at current levels until the middle quarters of 2022. Even though the bank still thinks inflation will ease from 2H22, they did drop the term "temporary" when referring to price pressures, similar to the Fed’s drop of the word transitory. The bank took a slightly bleaker view on growth, pointing to both the new Omicron variant and flooding in British Columbia as possibly drags on growth and something that could elevate supply chain issues. What disappointed markets a bit was that the bank said none of the recent developments warrants any further adjustments to normalization, which disappointed the bulls looking for a possible hawkish tilt. The bank noted that employment is back to pre-covid levels, and economic momentum in Q4 were solid, but the overall tone wasn’t enough to convince markets of a 1Q22 hike, with market odds at roughly 50/50 for the Jan meeting. The recent Omicron restrictions is expected to hit growth in the first quarter, which means a hike in quarter 2 is more likely as the bank would arguably not be in too much of a hurry to turn overly aggressive given the divergence between the divergent government response to Omicron between the US and the BoC. Thus, we think the bank holds off with hikes until 2Q22, which means some of those aggressive policy bets (markets pricing in very close to 5 hikes for this year this past week) will arguably need to be pushed back and repriced. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by three drivers: supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns; higher for longer than expected inflation. Even though Oil has recovered a lot of its recent downside and have proven our caution wrong, we are still cautious going into the first two quarters. The drivers keeping us cautious on oil right now is expectations of a more hawkish Fed, slowing growth and inflation, and a possible supply surplus in 1Q22. If our concerns do materialize into downside for oil prices it should put pressure on the CAD. Recent supply constraints in Kazakhstan and Libya has aided oil this past week (alongside some higher inflation inputs), and if that continues it could provide continued short-term support for Oil though so worth keeping that in mind. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -691 with a net non-commercial position of -11025. A lot of the previous froth priced into the CAD has arguably been reduced. However, given our concerns about Oil as well as the bar for an aggressive policy response from the BoC looking less certain, we do think there is chance of some additional repricing for the CAD going into 2022, which is why we’ve shifted our fundamental outlook to neutral from weak bullish. 5. The Week Ahead In the week ahead the calendar is very slim for the CAD with no tier 1 data points. The good jobs print on Friday provided some additional upside for the CAD, which had a decent start to the new year. However, as employment is often seen as a lagging indicator, as well as the newly announced covid restrictions in Canada, we do think the growth and employment situation in 1Q22 is facing some deterioration. For now, the markets have seemed comfortable with that and the CAD has been very resilient, but we are not sure how long that can continue.
by thunderpips
9
The Ascending Channel is broken with USDCADH1 time frame. Structure: Downtrend. The Ascending channel retraces to the 50% Fibonacci zone of the previous downtrend and has a downward move to break the channel. Wait for the retest signal to confirm the downtrend is back, then you can find selling opportunities. Profit target is 1.26200 and 1.25300 price zone. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wish you all have a good trading day!
Short
by tradafx
USDCAD potential for further uptrend |4th JanPrice is trading in an ascending channel and is near buy entry price of 1.27600 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 1.29457 which is also the graphical swing high level. Our bullish bias is supported by technical indicators. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
1
USDCAD potential for further uptrend |4th Jan Price is trading in an ascending channel and is near buy entry price of 1.27600 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 1.29457 which is also the graphical swing high level. Our bullish bias is supported by technical indicators. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
USDCAD can look for the 0.618? 🦐USDCAD on the 4h chart after the recent high has turned for a test of the daily support. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below we can expect a test of the lower support at the 0.618 Fibonacci area. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
Short
by InkyGrip
6
USDCAD potential for further uptrend | 3rd JanPrice is near buy entry of 1.26202 which is also 50% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci projection. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 1.28241 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bullish bias is supported the stochastic indicator as it is near support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
USDCAD potential for reversal | 31st DecPrice has recently broken out of the ascending trendline and is near sell entry price of .127496 which is also 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracment. Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 1.26063 which is also 127.2% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement Our bearish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
Wyckoff - USDCADWould love some insight into this potential Wyckoff accumulation. So far it looks like smart money is constantly taking out those lower lows in a consolidation phase to take away retail investors going long and release some liquidity. Coming to the end of a Secondary Test b (or potential spring)??? This is the first time I've plotted a potential Wyckoff ac and would be great to shed some light in the comments if this is probable and r.e specific entry types/ TF you'd look to enter.
Long
by MattsActionPlays
2
USDCAD Reversal?USDCAD just had it's highest daily close of 2021 on Friday 17th December, at 1.28912. Daily highs have exceeded this level 3 times this year but each time the price was rejected and the price failed to close above that level. So as priced has reached the highest daily close since December 22nd 2020, it has entered this area of rejection shown on the chart, while also displaying clear Bearish RSI Divergence as price climbs to the high while RSI slopes down. While we may be in a new uptrend - creating a new higher low in October and pushing for new 52week highs would suggest so - this looks close to a prime spot for USDCAD to take a breather and see a short term reversal. That being said, this is absolutely a spot where waiting for some confirmation of a reversal is a must - at the time of writing the momentum on lower time frames is strong, and bulls will have their eyes set on the nice round number of 1.29500, just a hairs breadth above the high of year achieved on August 20th.
Short
by HayeTrading
1
USDCAD potential for bullish continuation | 30th DecPrice is near buy entry price of 1.27658 and is also 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement . Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 1.29486 which is also the graphical swing high. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near support level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
5
USDCAD potential for bullish continuation | 30th DecPrice is near buy entry price of 1.27658 and is also 78.6% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially go to the take profit level of 1.29486 which is also the graphical swing high. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator as it is near support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet