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Usd-cad

USDCAD potentially for reversal | 13th DecPrice is near sell entry price of 1.27337 which is also 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 1.26059 which is also 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator as price is trading below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
THE END OF A WAR USDCAD The critical level as labelled has been an important support/resistance since 2004, 2005, 2008,2009,2015,2016,2017,2018,2021. A beautiful head and shoulder pattern was set up since the July 2021. A break below the neckline should have a theoretical price target around 1.21600. However, S1 held strong leading to further upside. The significance of the neckline can be seem from the slight rejection around 1.26786, however, bulls remain strong to push the price further only to be met by a strong resistance. The strong resistance sent the price way below the neckline creating a bearish sentiment. However, bulls gained strength to push the price just above this support in the weekly chart. At the moment we are in a battlefield where the bulls and bears have gone at each other for a while. The small candle on Friday shows the uncertainty from both sides. Monday will be crucial in deciding the direction. I believe a clear break above the neckline will put the bulls in charge until 1.30000, however a rejection of the neckline will push prices further to bottom support. Keep that has your take profit. What makes this level most convincing is that the critical level crosses the neckline. This confluence greatly improves the credibility of the set. What makes this set up so great? It is always nice to see a battle between bulls and bears. This battle has been going on for months, it takes a lot of strength to finally gain ground. When this is done, the price movement will be almost certain. With close stop losses above and below the neckline for both cases, your risk to reward ratios will be 1:4 or 1:5 which is awesome! Stay tuned for the direction tomorrow! Have fun trading, do share your comments as well!
by UnknownUnicorn7338697
4
UCAD for coming week...If Ucad cant clear the R at 1.273-50 likely has more downside than up... Hello there! If you are keen to learn more on the technical setups,do visit my website at www.shadowingthebb.com ! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar fell against several of its major counterparts on Wednesday, as easing concerns about the economic hit from the Omicron COVID-19 variant helped support riskier currencies. Caxton notes that “concerns about Omicron appear to be fading slightly, particularly as increasing – albeit unconfirmed – data emerges pointing to infections caused by the new variant being milder than previously thought.” CAD – The Canadian dollar was little changed against the greenback on Wednesday as the Bank of Canada disappointed some investors that had expected a shift to a more hawkish stance, with the currency pulling back from its strongest level in nearly three weeks. Commenting on CAD following the BoC’s announcement, analysts at Monex stated that “the Canadian dollar mildly weakened on the back of the release as there was no material upgrade to the Bank’s October projections in the statement. Growth risks brought about by the latest COVID variant, and the recent British Columbia crisis meant policymakers kept a fairly noncommittal tone.”
TVC:DXY
by thunderpips
6
#USDCAD approaching pivot, potential for rise! Description Price is approaching pivot level of 1.26226, which is in line with horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A reversal from this level may see price take resistance at price 1.27312. This level coincides with horizontal overlap resistance. Finally, we can expect price to take support at 1.25747horizontal overlap support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level . This is further supported by how price is likely to bounce off the Stochastic support level . Pivot: 1.26226 Why we like it: horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level 1st Support: 1.25747 Why we like it: horizontal overlap support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level 1st Resistance: 1.27312 Why we like it: horizontal overlap resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed announced tapering as expected, with purchases to be reduced at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation , with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and a faster 2022 taper on the table, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should be supportive for the USD. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now as an aggressive Fed is not a positive for US10Y . But it also means there are risks that inflation expectations fall and place upside pressure on real yields. 3. Global Risk Outlook Based on the recent global economic data the expectations of a possible reflationary setup have developed as the Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to push higher. Even though this was seen as a possible negative for the USD, the recent hawkish tilt from the Fed (accompanied by the Omicron variant) has seen drastic curve flattening in anticipation that the Fed might be on its way to a policy mistake, and we could see a possible repeat scenario like we had back in 4Q18. If that happens, it should be an additional tailwind for the USD, which means for now a lot of hinges on the new variant. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +104 with a net non-commercial position of +35879. USD longs are looking stretched, and arguably have been looking stretched for the past few weeks. With large speculators at their highest level since 2019, there is some scope for some mean reversion lower in the USD. It’s also important to remember that a lot of the Fed hawkishness should now be reflected in the price. The biggest risk to upside is if the med-term growth and inflation outlook materially deteriorate from here. 5. The Week Ahead With Fed Chair Powell already giving the markets the prewarning of a faster tapering decision next week, there isn’t much that will change that with this week’s line up of economic data. The biggest even will no doubt be the CPI print on Friday, where markets are expecting a new cycle high for consumer prices. With so many expectations baked in for the Fed and with so many higher inflation projections doing the rounds, the highest tradable event for the USD this week would be a huge surprise miss as that will catch everyone by surprise and offer some decent downside in the short-term for the USD. Even though a beat in the CPI data should see further expectations of tighter policy, markets are so close to pricing in 3 hikes for next year again which means the upside on a beat might be more limited compared to the Nov CPI print. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their Oct meeting the BoC surprised by putting an early end to QE purchases and updated forward guidance to suggest an earlier lift off in rates by projecting economic slack to be absorbed by the middle quarters of 2022. The initial reaction was bullish as one would expect but the biggest risk to further upside for the CAD from here is the fact that a lot of these positives that was confirmed by the BoC has already been reflected in both the CAD and rates markets over the past few weeks. The CAD has seen a similar run to the upside back in 1Q21 with the BoC’s hawkish tilt, and similarly to that we feel current prices for rates and the CAD already reflect a great deal of the positives. Thus, even though the med-term outlook remains tilted to the upside for the CAD, there is the risk of seeing some unwind of the recent upside and is something to be mindful of when making any med-term allocations to the upside in the CAD. Last week’s Oct CPI data was a good example of this where the currency saw outsized downside on an uninspiring print. It’s not that CPI was bad, it was broadly in line with expectations, but with all the positives already priced it would have taken a really exceptionally strong print to keep the CAD’s upside momentum going. Another interesting driver for the months ahead, which could put a break on the BoC’s hiking path, is the close to 350% debt to GDP for Canada, which will make it very painful if rates start rising and for some like HSBC means the hike cycle could be very short. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by three drivers: supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns; rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains higher in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. Oil prices rallied after the US’s SPR release failed to spark any meaningful follow through, but last week’s covid scare was enough to see WTI drop over 12% in the session. Thus, this week’s upcoming OPEC meeting will be very important, as any announcement to pause planned productions cuts could spark some additional upside again. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -10940 with a net non-commercial position of -14075. A lot of the previous froth that was priced into the CAD just a few weeks ago has arguably been substantially reduced given the oil and Omicron related downside in risk assets over the past few sessions. That means buying opportunities is starting to look attractive again. 5. The Week Ahead The main calendar event for the CAD in the week ahead is Wednesday’s upcoming BoC meeting. At the meeting markets will be focused on whether the recent Omicron variant is of any major concern to the BoC and whether the bank is also growing more concerned about inflation like the Fed. With the overall economic outlook evolving broadly in line with the bank’s MPR, there is expectations that the bank could err on the hawkish side despite the Omicron concerns, which should be positive for the CAD. Attention will be placed on any comments regarding the output gap to see whether the bank sees the gap being closed earlier (possibly Q1) which would imply the bank is bringing forward hike projections.
by thunderpips
2
USD CAD Long Entry USDCAD has been in a steady uptrend since the 21st of October. The price has risen by 3.22% since the price found support at the 1.23 levels. Since Friday there has been a correction of about 1.3% down to around the 1.26 area. The RSI levels on the 1hr and 4hr time frame remain very oversold which suggests that the price has room to rise from this point. The stop loss area for this trade is located at the previous resistance now turned support at 1.260. The target is the previous high at 1.274.
Long
by Orion-Markets
#USDCAD approaching pivot, potential for rise! Description Price is approaching pivot level of 1.27312, which is in line with horizontal overlap support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A reversal from this level may see price take resistance at price 1.28369. This level coincides with horizontal swing high resistance. Finally, we can expect price to take support at 1.26456 in line with the horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level . This is further supported by how price is likely to bounce off the Stochastic support level . Pivot: 1.27312 Why we like it: horizontal overlap support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level 1st Support: 1.26456 Why we like it: horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level 1st Resistance: 1.28369 Why we like it: horizontal swing high resistance Trading FX & CFDs carries high risk.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Another bank that was hawkish in deed by dovish in word in their Nov policy decision. The Fed official announced tapering as expected, with purchases said to be reduced this month at a pace of $10bln in Treasuries and $5bln in MBS per month and explained that a mid-2022 conclusion is still their base case. There were also some hawkish language changes about inflation, with the bank dropping previous comments that called inflation transitory and replacing it with ‘expected to be transitory’, basically leaving some optionality to pivot more aggressively with tapering should price pressures stay sticky for too long. However, Fed Chair Powell did a really good job to put on a familiar dovish front by explaining that they see the current price pressures as driven by supply bottlenecks and still see those pressures cooling down in in 1H22, essentially giving themselves half a year of ‘tolerating’ the current inflation overshoot. Apart from that, Chair Powell explained that they would need to see maximum employment before their conditions for a lift off in rates would be met, and also explained that it’s likely that full employment could be reached by mid-2022. That endorsed the idea that a 2h22 hike is possible, but the Chair refused to provide any idea of what maximum employment would look like. On the rate front, Powell also explained that they think they can be patient with rates right now as they want more time to see in what shape the economy is in after the current covid shocks have calmed and after bottlenecks have eased. Overall, a policy meeting that was hawkish in their actions but dovish in their words. 2. Real Yields With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the cards, further material downside in real yields looks like a struggle, and upside from here should be supportive for the USD. However, we are growing cautious of nominal yields right now, with possible downside risks brewing it means real yields could continue to drift lower, which have not yet hurt the greenback, but is something to keep on the radar. 3. The global risk outlook One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, there has been a growing chorus of market participants looking for a possible bounce in growth data in Q4 after the covid and supply chain related slowdown in Q3. If we do indeed see a pickup in growth, while inflation is still elevated, that would mean a reflationary environment, which is usually a negative input for the Dollar, so we want to keep that in mind when assessing the incoming US and global economic data in the next few weeks. Especially with last week’s covid fears, any downgrades to growth expectations should support the Dollar from a safe haven perspective. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their Oct meeting the BoC surprised to put an early end to QE purchases and updated forward guidance to suggest an earlier lift off in rates by explaining that project economic slack to be absorbed by the middle quarters of 2022. The initial reaction was bullish as one would expect but the biggest risk to further upside for the CAD from here is the fact that a lot of these positives that was confirmed by the BoC has already been reflected in both the CAD and rates markets over the past few weeks. The CAD has seen a similar run to the upside back in 1Q21 with the BoC’s hawkish tilt, and similarly to that we feel current prices for rates and the CAD already reflect a great deal of the positives. Thus, even though the med-term outlook remains tilted to the upside for the CAD, there is the risk of seeing some unwind of the recent upside and is something to be mindful of when making any med-term allocations to the upside in the CAD. Last week’s Oct CPI data was a good example of this where the currency saw outsized downside on an uninspiring print. It’s not that CPI was bad, it was broadly in line with expectations, but with all the positives already priced it would have taken a really exceptionally strong print to keep the CAD’s upside momentum going. Another interesting driver for the months ahead, which could put a break on the BoC’s hiking path, is the close to 350% debt to GDP for Canada, which will make it very painful if rates start rising and for some like HSBC means the hike cycle could be very short. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by three drivers: supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns; rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains higher in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver.
by thunderpips
4