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Usd-chf

USDCHF Potential for Bullish RiseOn H4, with the price is breaking the descending channel and above ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise to the buy entry at 0.96260, which is in line with the swing high and 50% fibonacci retracement. If the price break the buy entry, the price may rise to the take profit at 0.97336, which is in line with the swing high. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.94737, which is in line with the pervious swing low and 50% fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USDCHF Potential for Bearish Continuation| 16th August 2022On the H4, with prices moving below the ichimoku cloud hence we have a bearish bias that the price will continue with the bearish momentum. Price is now testing at the 78.6% Fibonacci projection as well as the previous swing low where our sell entry sits 0.9472. If bearish momentum continues, it should hit our take profit at 0.937 which also coincides with the Fibonacci 127.2% extension. If prices fail to break first support, it will hit our stop loss at 0.954 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low sits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
USDCHF to the 0.94? 🦐USDCHF on the 4h chart reached the support area as expected from my previous idea- The price has now retraced at the 0.382 fibonacci level. How can I approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and check for a possible break below the support area . In that case, i will look for the Plancton's strategy to be satisfied and set a nice short order --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
2
USDCHF Potential for Bearish Continuation| 5th August 2022On the H4, prices have signalled a slightly bearish momentum. It has rejected the 1st resistance at our sell entry, 0.966 which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement. we would take profit at 0.955, the previous swing low. if prices were to pullback back into bullish momentum, stop loss will be at 0.972 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDCHF Pivot and break-out levelsThe USDCHF pair has been trading within a Channel Down since mid-May. At the moment it is rising after a Lower Low on August 02 but remains limited below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time the uptrend got rejected on the Internal Lower Highs trend-line. The 1D RSI is also trading within a Falling Wedge. As a result, below the Lower Highs trend-line, the trade is a sell targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), while a candle close above is a buy targeting the top of the Channel Down. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
USDCHF Potential for Bearish continuation| 1st August 2022On the H4, prices are moving in a strong bearish momentum, respecting the descending channel. We have a bearish bias entry level at 23.6% retracement 0.957. If prices break this level, our stop loss will be placed at 0.963. Alternatively if price rejects, it will pull back to our take profit level at 0.947 Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDCHF-- I see potential (edited)USDCHF had tried to re-enter a major support/resistance area for the third month in a row, and with less than 24 hours for price to trade higher or lower before the monthly candle closes, it sits relatively close to where it sat 30 days ago. The data shows an inability to obtain control of price movement throughout the month, and a strong selling presence on the resistance end of the zone shown. After the most recent attempt at breaking through the monthly resistance, price has fully retraced that impulse to the golden pocket, where price is currently trading. I think there is a good opportunity here to watch price action and trade any signs of increasing volume that begin breaking key intraday support and rejection levels. I never am truly biased, but I anticipate a move downward, creating a healthy red candle to end the month... It is worth mentioning that from a long term perspective it seems as though the pair still has room to push upward creating a more complete retracement than is currently formed right now. A full retracement would bring price all the way back up to 1.06, potentially higher. As noted, price has been attempting for quite some time to break above and confirm the 1.0-1.618 level as support. After multiple failed attempts, it appears as though buying pressure has begun to subside now that candle closes are starting to stray from our support/resistance zone. Until price can push past the .99000 vicinity, I will only be entertaining bearish opportunities. What do you see? Like, comment, and subscribe! Happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
USDCHF can move lower? 🦐USDCHF on the 4h chart is trading at the recent highs. The price creates a double top over a minor resistance at the 0.98500 level. How can I approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market open and check for a possible break below the support area . In that case, i will look for the Plancton's strategy to be satisfied and set a nice short order --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
USD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.5% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). Even though lower STIR pricing should be negative for the USD, the growth concerns has sparked further risk off concerns and have seen safe haven flows into the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates. Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. The current high inflation has meant that bonds have not been sought as a safe haven with a strong stock-to-bond correlation, and this has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. The bias remains bullish , but with stretched tactical and CFTC positioning we don’t want to chase the USD higher right now. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from the FOMC that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions. As the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status matters. Any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big flush in risk assets and triggers a rush to safety should be positive for the USD. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Even though the USD has been trading like a safe haven, the worse growth data continues to get, the higher the likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. The USD is trading close to cycle highs while aggregate CFTC positioning is close to prior highs which acted as local tops. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to short-term mean reversion, but finding strong enough bearish catalysts has been tricky recently. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any major dovish pivots seem unlikely for now. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could start to weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a ‘Fed Put’, even though current inflation suggests any dovish pivot seems a while away. Also, as the safe haven of choice any further recession focused downside in risk assets could continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning in mind, we prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalysts that offer short-term bearish sentiment-based trades. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially inflation coming up early on Monday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
USDCHF-- potential for movement from hereUSDCHF had tried to re-enter a major support/resistance area for the third month in a row, and with less than 24 hours for price to trade higher or lower before the monthly candle closes, it sits relatively close to where it sat 30 days ago. The data shows inability to obtain control of the price throughout the month, and a strong selling presence on the resistance end of the zone shown. After the most recent attempt at breaking through the monthly resistance, price has fully retraced that impulse to the golden pocket, where price is currently trading. I think there is a good opportunity here to watch price action and trade any signs of increasing volume that begin breaking some of the key intraday rejection levels. I never am truly biased, but I anticipate a move downward, creating a healthy red candle to end the month. It is worth mentioning that from a more long term perspective it seems as though the pair still has room to push upward creating a more complete retracement than is currently formed. What do you see? Like, comment, and subscribe! Happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
USDCHF Potential for Bearish Continuation | 29th July 2022On the H4, with price moving along the descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that price might drop from our sell entry at 0.95249, which is in line with the swing low to the take profit at 0.93918, which is in line with the 127.2% fibonacci extension. Alternatively, the price may bounce off from the 1st support and head for stop loss at 0.96536 where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is. Take note the price of 0.96014 could be the intermediate resistance, which is in line with the previous swing low. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
USDCHF Potential for Bearish Continuation | 28th July 2022On the H4, with price moving along the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price might drop from our sell entry at 0.95838, which is in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement to the the take profit at 0.94953, which is in line with the swing low. Alternatively, price may bounce off from the 1st support and head for stop loss at 0.96536 where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement is. Take note the price of 0.97332 could be the resistance. which is in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
2
USDCHF Potential for Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving along the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price might drop from our sell entry at 0.96608, which is in line with overlap resistance to the take profit at 0.94968, which is in line with the swing low. Alternatively, price may head for stop loss at 0.97476 where the 50% fibonacci retracement is. Take note the price of 0.95792 could be the intermediate support level, which is in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.5% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). Even though lower STIR pricing should be negative for the USD, the growth concerns has sparked further risk off concerns and have seen safe haven flows into the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates. Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. The current high inflation has meant that bonds have not been sought as a safe haven with a strong stock-to-bond correlation, and this has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. The bias remains bullish , but with stretched tactical and CFTC positioning we don’t want to chase the USD higher right now. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from the FOMC that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions. As the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status matters. Any incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big flush in risk assets and triggers a rush to safety should be positive for the USD. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Even though the USD has been trading like a safe haven, the worse growth data continues to get, the higher the likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. The USD is trading close to cycle highs while aggregate CFTC positioning is close to prior highs which acted as local tops. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to short-term mean reversion, but finding strong enough bearish catalysts has been tricky recently. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any major dovish pivots seem unlikely for now. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. But we want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could start to weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a ‘Fed Put’, even though current inflation suggests any dovish pivot seems a while away. Also, as the safe haven of choice any further recession focused downside in risk assets could continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning in mind, we prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalysts that offer short-term bearish sentiment-based trades. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation. The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially inflation coming up early on Monday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank, we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
USDCHF Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving along the descending channel, we have a bearish bias that price might drop from our sell entry at 0.96608, which is in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 0.94968, which is in line with our swing low. Alternatively, price may head for sop loss at 0.97380 where the close swing high and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Take note the 0.95792 could be our intermediate support level. which is in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.5% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). Even though lower STIR pricing should be negative for the USD, the growth concerns has sparked further risk off concerns and have seen safe haven flows into the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates. Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. The current high inflation has meant that bonds have not been sought as a safe haven with a strong stock-to-bond correlation, and this has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. The bias remains bullish , but with stretched tactical and CFTC positioning we don’t want to chase the USD higher right now. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data ( S&P Flash PMI this week) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The USD has been reacting as a safe haven with recent US data, but the worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at fresh cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close to prior highs which acted as local tops. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term, but finding strong enough bearish catalysts has been tricky recently. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for them to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any dovish pivots seem unlikely for now. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. We do also want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could start to weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a ‘Fed Put’, but based on where inflation is sitting any pivot seems still a while away and as the safe haven of choice any further recession focused downside in risk assets will likely continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning looking stretched, we prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalysts that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially inflation coming up early on Monday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means that the bias for the CHF has changed to bullish and we’ll be looking for big dips in the CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
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