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Usd-chf

USDCHF Stuck within the 1D MA50 - MA100. Break-out trade.The USDCHF pair is pulling back after making nearly a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and hit last hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Today it is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance, so the closing of the 1D candle either way will most likely decide the next trend. Above the 1D MA50, we will buy, targeting 0.94000 (Channel Up Higher High and Resistance 2). Below the 1D MA100, we will quick sell, targeting 0.88000 (Channel Up bottom). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
USDCHF 22/10/23UC is another example of bearish price action we know from what we have seen of our other pairs that this is likely to carry over into this week but we will more than likely look to fill some of our high areas, which would match up nicely with what we know of our other pairs for example GU. Main focus here is to take out a major high or low, as it stands we have a lot of liquid on both sides of the market, so we don't want to get caught up in anything we don't need to be in! Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by rosshayes
SUN 22 OCT USDCHF BEARISH TRADEIn the chart, the USD/CHF price has been following a bearish channel, consistently making lower lows and lower highs. The next opportunity for traders is to wait for the price to pull back to the support level that has become resistance. With a risk-reward ratio of 3, traders have several strategies available: A) Wait for the price to pull back and demonstrate a bearish candlestick pattern such as a pinbar, engulfing pattern, inside bar, doji, etc. This approach relies on confirmation from price action signals. B) Place a limit order at the structural level, anticipating a reversal from that point. This strategy does not wait for confirmation and assumes the price will respect the historical structure. C) Combine both methods by allocating half of your capital to enter with a limit order at the structure level and the other half upon confirmation of a bearish candlestick pattern. This approach balances confirmation with the potential of an earlier entry.
Short
by kennkennntl
2
UsdChf weakest among allLooking at Uchf , if usd is to turn weak, will look more into shorting this pair **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
2
A Traders' Weekly Playbook - energy markets to direct sentimentWe look at the scheduled economic data and US earnings this week and question if given the fluid news flow from the Middle East, these events move the dial or if geopolitics consumes the full attention and direct sentiment. We saw a rush to hedge portfolios on Friday ahead of a darkening picture emerging in the Middle East. The situation is dynamic and it's too early to say if the hedges placed on Friday are unwarranted, but there have been pockets of positive news flow – for example, US Secretary of State Blinken saying aid will get to Gaza via the Egyptian border, and Israel opening water supply to Southern Gaza, with over 600k Gazans moving south. A call between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Iranian officials is a development, with the US warning not to increase aggression. As Israel's ground offensive pushes into Gaza, risk and energy markets will look for headlines and actions from Iranian officials who have stated they have a duty to come to the aid of the Palestinians. Watching crude and Nat Gas The energy markets are the first derivative to drive broad market sentiment this week, with crude and Nat Gas leading investors to trade volatility (options), as well as classic hedges such as gold and Treasuries. Amid a backdrop of ‘higher for longer’, and the US CPI inflation gaining 0.4% in September, higher energy prices could deliver a one-way punch to sentiment. Given market participants are generally poor at pricing risk around geopolitical developments, it's no wonder most have looked to mitigate drawdown - but at this stage, while there is a growing wall of worry to potentially climb, the probability is traders will use strength in risky assets to reduce exposures. The probability of supply disruptions is one of the key aspects here – last week we saw the closure of Chevron’s Tamar gas field in Israel – the focus has been rerouting that gas from the Leviathan gas fields in the North of Israel – if the market feels this gas field could be impacted then could see a spike in EU NG. Many energy experts see the risk of a supply event here as fairly low, but should developments escalate on various fronts, then the market will increase the possibility of a disruption. The bear case for risk, given the potential for a significant rally in EU NG and crude, would be where the market increases the probability of Iran curtailing the movement of LNG through the Straits of Hormuz, where notably Qatar LNG supply (20% of the global LNG market) would be impacted. Again, this seems a low probability at this stage, but that will depend on Iran’s ongoing involvement and any new sanctions placed on them. Downside risk to the EUR If EU NG spikes higher in the near term, then talk of a renewed energy crisis in Europe will resurface and the EURUSD could be headed to parity. As said, this probability is a lower risk right now, but when considering the risks, this is the market concern that will be monitored. While sentiment will move around on each headline, we revisit the hedging flows seen on Friday, as traders de-risked ahead of potential gapping risk – It’s too hard to make a call on whether these hedges are partly unwound in Asia. Where did we see the hedging flows? • Gold rallied 3.4% on Friday - a 3-sigma move and the second biggest day since 2020. A massive 299k gold futures contracts traded, the highest since May. XAUUSD 1-month implied volatility has pushed to 15% and 1-week call volatility has increased to a 1.75 vol premium to puts – the most since March. • The XAUUSD price closed at a 2.8% premium to the 5-day moving average, which shows the sheer pace of the intraday rally, with limited intraday mean reversion – sellers just stood aside. • Brent crude closed 5% higher with our Brent price closing over $91 and eyeing a move back to the recent highs of $96 – WTI Crude futures saw the curve lift and go further into backwardation – this typically means the market sees a higher probability of a supply shock. • In equities, the VIX traded to a high of 20.78%, settling at 19.3% (+2.6 vols on the day) – a VIX index at 19.3% implies daily % changes in the S&P500 of 1.2% and 2.7% on the week. • S&P 1-month put implied vol now trades at a 5.46 vol premium to 1-month calls – This volatility ‘Skew’ is now the most bearish since May – traders are ramping up the demand for downside puts to protect in case of drawdown. • Market breadth was ok with 46% of S&P500 stocks closed higher – there was no blanket selling, but a rotation from tech and consumer names into energy and defensive sectors - staples, utilities, and healthcare. • While we saw some buying in petrocurrencies (NOK & CAD) but traders played defense buying into the CHF & JPY – short NZDCHF was the play of the day (-1.4%), with GBPCHF breaking the long-run range lows. • US Treasuries rallied with 10’s closing -8bp and 30’s -10bp. Marquee event risks for the week ahead: • NZ Q3 CPI (17 Oct 08:45 AEDT) – the market consensus is for 1.9% QoQ / 5.9% YoY (from 6%) – NZDCHF was the biggest percentage mover on Friday following the risk aversion flows – will the sellers follow through? • UK jobless claims/wage data (17 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for wages sits at 7.8% (unchanged) – UK swaps place a 29% chance of a hike from the BoE at the 2 Nov BoE meeting, will the wage data influence that pricing? GBPCHF trades the weakest levels since Oct 2022 and looks likely to be sold on rallies • US retail sales (17 Oct 23:30 AEDT) – the advanced read is expected at 0.3% mom and the ‘control group’ element at -0.1%. The retail numbers could influence market sentiment, especially if we see a big miss to expectations, with USDJPY and USDCHF the pairs most sensitive to a weaker outcome. Gold could find further buyers on a downside surprise. • Canada CPI (23:30 AEDT) – headline CPI is expected at 4% yoy, with core CPI eyed at 4% yoy • Fed chair Jay Powell speaks at the Economic Club of NY (20 Oct 03:00 AEDT) – the highlight of the week. Expect Powell to focus on the view that moves in the bond market are mitigating the need for the Fed to hike further. • China Q3 GDP (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) – consensus is 4.5% yoy (from 6.3%) – likely a trough in China’s GDP, with better levels ahead. • China Industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales (18 Oct 13:00 AEDT) • UK Sept CPI (18 Oct 17:00 AEDT) – the consensus for headline CPI is 6.6% yoy (from 6.7%) / core CPI at 6% yoy (6.2%) – a risk to manage for traders holding GBP exposures • EU CPI (18 Oct 20:00 AEDT) – no change expected in the revision, with headline CPI eyed at 4.3% /core CPI at 4.5%. Should be a non-event for the EUR and EU equities. • Australia employment report (19 Oct 11:30 AEDT) – the consensus estimate is for 20k jobs to have been created in September and the U/E rate unchanged at 3.7% - expect the impact from Aussie jobs to be short-lived – preference to work sell limits in AUDUSD on the day and sell into strength. • China new homes prices (19 Oct 12:30 AEDT) • China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate (20 Oct 12:15 AEDT) – the consensus is no change with the 1yr rate to stay at 5.2% & the 5yr rate at 3.45% US Earnings (with the implied move on earnings) – Goldman Sachs (3.7%), Bank of America (4.6%), Tesla (5.2%), Netflix (7.5%) Central bank speeches: BoE – Huw Pill, Sam Woods, Swati Dhingra ECB – Villeroy, Knot, Centeno, Guindos, Holzmann Fed – see schedule below
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NYMEX:TTF1!Long
by Pepperstone
5
USDCHF 9/10/23US dollar to the Swiss franc is showing us exactly what we'd like to see which is a reversed version of our USD secondary pairs so for example in this case we have a bearish swing range showing us that the gap is at the low of the range in our usd secondary pairs we have the reverse where our gap is at the top of the range and we are in a bullish directional range now the gap on the US dollar Swiss franc was not as large as our other primary pairs but we have still had a gap at market open which has now been filled due to the high impact news on Friday we created a huge 5 minute range this range needs to be broken either higher or lower to confirm our manipulated low until that we will just continue to follow the internal price action to possibly find some movements for a short term entry. Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by rosshayes
USD/CHF Retreats Amidst Positive US Data and Trade TensionsUSD/CHF Retreats Amidst Positive US Data and Trade Tensions Introduction The USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading lower around 0.8910 during the Asian session on Friday, marking a retreat from its recent winning streak that commenced on Tuesday. This reversal comes despite the pair receiving upward support from robust US job data released on Thursday. In this article, we will dissect the factors contributing to the pair's recent movements and the broader economic landscape. Positive US Job Data One of the key drivers of the recent USD/CHF gains was the release of encouraging US job data. US Initial Jobless Claims as of September 1 dipped to 216K, falling below the expected 234K and the previous reading of 229K. Additionally, US Unit Labor Costs improved to 2.2% in the second quarter, up from the previous figure of 1.6%, a development that was expected to remain steady. The Strength of the US Dollar The recent surge in the strength of the US Dollar (USD) can be attributed to growing investor confidence in a more hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This optimism is fueled by a consistent stream of positive economic data from the United States, reflecting the country's robust economic health. Market Expectations Market participants are now factoring in the likelihood of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike during the November and December Fed meetings, along with the possibility of maintaining interest rates at elevated levels for an extended duration. These expectations have played a significant role in bolstering the USD's position in recent trading sessions. Trade Tensions and Safe-Haven Appeal Despite the positive economic developments in the US, investor confidence remains tempered by concerns regarding China's deteriorating economic situation and the persistent trade tensions between China and the United States. These factors continue to pose risks to the global economic landscape. In times of uncertainty, the Swiss Franc (CHF) often garners appeal as a traditional safe-haven currency, which could explain the recent resurgence in demand for the CHF. Focus on Upcoming Speeches With no significant economic releases expected to impact the market from either the United States or Switzerland in the near term, traders are likely to keep a close eye on forthcoming speeches from Fed members. These speeches have the potential to provide further insights into the central bank's monetary policy stance and may influence currency market dynamics. Conclusion The USD/CHF currency pair's recent retreat, despite positive US job data, underscores the impact of global economic uncertainties, particularly related to China's economic condition and ongoing trade tensions. While the US Dollar has enjoyed a recent surge in strength due to robust economic indicators and expectations of a more hawkish Fed, the Swiss Franc's safe-haven appeal remains intact. Traders should remain vigilant and adaptable as they navigate a forex landscape influenced by a delicate balance of economic factors and geopolitical tensions.
Long
by FOREXN1
17
USDCHF, Massive Broadening-Wedge, BREAKOUT Incoming, Targets!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about USDCHF on the 2-Day Timeframe Perspective. In the recent times, as I have spotted, USDCHF is converting more and more into a determining structure that is setting up a much larger price-action volatility-breakout than already seen before. Therfore, the next finalization-steps need to be confirmed for the major determinations to emerge. Especially once the volume and momentum is aligned into this direction it is going to transform the whole chart-development into a major breakout determination. In this case I have spotted the most important parts of this whole considerations and what to expect in the upcoming times. Formational Structure: As when looking at my chart now USDCHF continued forming this gigantic Descending-Broadening-Wedge-Bottoming-Formation in which it formed a coherent Wave-Count within the structure to continue gradually bouncing within the lower boundary to now aim higher and test the upper boundary for a final breakout. Especially as USDCHF is building up above the 35-EMA this is offering an strong support within this whole structure and is actually forming the structure for the final breakout to emerge. Once the breakout above the upper-boundary emerged as it is seen within my chart this is going to be the first Breakout-Confirmation in a series of further continuation developments. Upcoming Indications and Prospects: Once the initial Breakout-Confirmation has shown up this is going to activate the target-zones as they are marked within this whole formational structure. Once the second Breakout-Confirmation has been validated it is going to increase the odds for the second target to be reached within the schedule and especially with a strong trend-acceleration those targets are likely to be reached faster than setup. The next times will be extremely important here as they are going to determine the final breakout and completion of the whole wedge-formation. According to this further assumptions to consider for the next alignments can be derived. This paramount formation and the upcoming developments are factors why we are keeping USDCHF on the watchlist and re-evaluate the situation once changes in the chart have emerged. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
by VincePrince
2
USDCHF Extremely overbought. Start selling. Sharp correction.The USDCHF pair is seeing a dramatic price surge in September. The pattern post late 2022 is basically very similar to the previous Bear Cycle of 2019-2020. The bottom fractals in particular seem identical and the price is approaching the 0.5 Fibonacci rejection level. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price and another on the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Targets: 1. 0.8800 (the symmetricl low of May 4th 2023). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is overbought, marginally over even 83.50 Overbought Resistance. This RSI Resistance has seen sharp declines after every touch (May 3rd 2018, March 4th 2021, May 11th 2022). That is why start shorting now is advised. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Short
by TradingBrokersView
USDCHF 24/9/23UC is our last pair for this week, as it stands we have a clear bullish range but as we have said on nearly all of our pairs we do expect the current moves that have ran over the last few weeks, until we actually break out of this trend we will keep following it until it does then we will change our bias and follow price as it moves. Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by rosshayes
USDCHF: The top isn't in most likely. 1D MA200 ahead.USDCHF has been rising non-stp since the July 18th bottom on 0.85555 (S1). The 1D outlook is on straight bullish technicals (RSI = 61.656, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 40.729) and as the 1D MA50 has been turned into Support, we expect the rally to peak within the 1D MA200 and the inside LH trendline. That would be as close to the top of the twelve month Channel Down as possible. We will wait until a LH trendline is formed on the 1D RSI, which preceded every sharp selling and was the ideal short signal. Target S1 (TP = 0.85555). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
2