USD likely to test 91.4,make or break level..Able to bounce off the 90.80 area...retesting the R now...see how H4 pans out..
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Usd-index
USD Majors Based IndexThe USD index is showing weakness as price has been able to break through prior demand. It looks like bearish momentum is growing as the rate of change indicator is increasing during the current price decline. The average rate of change has been increasing to the downside. The ADX indicator is increasing, giving weight to the current decline's strength.
Looks like the weekly chart is putting in a lower high to continue the long term downtrend. I'm expecting a continuation of dollar weakness and keeping my eye on the relative strength for suitable currencies to pair.
DXY - Purple War Zones!DXY is overall bullish trading inside the red channel so we will be looking for Trend-Following Buy setups as (if) it approaches our lower red trendline. Knowing that DXY can still trade higher from here, to reach 94.0.
Here are the two strong zones where I will be looking for high probability setups:
I call them War Zones , (highlighted in Purple circles)
Zone 1: (92-92.5)
This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the previous blue support and lower red trendline. (trend-following setup)
Zone 2: (94-94.5)
This highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. (over-bought / over-extended area)
As per my trading style:
As DXY approaches one of the purple circles, I will be looking for reversal buy/sell setups (like a double bottom /top pattern, trendline break, and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
USD Majors Based IndexLooks like USD has room for the continuation of strength. This index is very similar to the DXY and I could have chosen to use the DXY but I like to be different :P This index is constructed to reflect the same kind of information: USD strength or weakness. I will be looking to pair the USD with weaker currencies for the strongest trends focused on high quality entries.
DXY stages an impressive comeback from 91.396 to 91.956 and...If there was any uncertainty about the capability of yields in terms of an overarching force, the abrupt turnaround in direction for the Greenback and broad risk sentiment should remove all uncertainty. However, the catalyst for the latest reversion to bear-steepening in US Treasuries and other global bonds is less clear-cut, as the 30 year auction was not a flop and the fact that President Biden signed off on stimulus a day earlier than initially anticipated is neither here nor there, albeit cheques and direct back account credits will arrive more promptly. Hence, the rationale may actually lie elsewhere given a sharp fall from grace in Eurozone debt after a brief PEPP boost and even more pronounced reversal in UK Gilts in wake of mostly better than forecast data and details of Q2 DMO issuance. Moreover, the Buck may be benefiting from some supportive technical factors as the DXY stages an impressive comeback from 91.396 to 91.956 and back above 91.740 that remains a key pivot on many charts. Ahead, PPI data and the first look at Michigan sentiment for March. Bullish bias is active.
US500 - Wider and Wilder!Hello Trading Family, I found US500 chart interesting.
We can see that US500 is currently trading inside these two brown trendlines forming a rising broadening wedge.
Here are the two strong zones where I will be looking for high probability setups:
I call them War Zones, (highlighted in Orange circles)
Zone 1: Lower Orange Circle
This highlighted orange circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of a demand zone and the lower brown trendline acting as non-horizontal support. (trend-following setup)
Zone 2: Upper Orange Circle
This highlighted orange circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the round number 4k and the upper brown trendline acting as an over-bought / over-extended area.
As per my trading style/plan:
I will be waiting for US500 to approach one of the orange circles to look for reversal setups on lower timeframes (like a double bottom/top, trendline break, and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
DXY - Possible Road Map!DXY is currently sitting around a strong support area. WHAT NEXT?
DXY is overall bullish trading inside the orange channel so we will be looking for Trend-Following Buy setups as it approaches our lower orange trendlines.
Moreover, the green area is a "Resistance turned into Support" which adds confluence to our bullish speculation.
So as mentioned, we will zoom in to lower timeframes and look for potential buy setups and triggers, knowing that DXY can trade lower and dive inside the green zone till the lower bound of the orange trendlines before going up.
As per my trading style:
I will be looking for bullish reversal setups like a double bottom pattern, trendline break, and so on...
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Unless DXY breaks below the green zone aggressively , which will invalidate our analysis, and the momentum would be shifted from bullish to bearish, then we will adjust accordingly.
And of course, as DXY approaches the upper orange trendlines and green resistance, we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Super choppy few days. The Dollar is firmer across the board...Super choppy few days. The Dollar is
firmer across the board in the run up to the FOMC amidst little expectation of really anything major in terms of policy moves or fresh guidance beyond the inevitable updated assessment of the economic situation and outlook since the prior meeting, plus anything Fed chair Powell reveals in the press conference via text or during the Q&A (full preview of the event available in the Research Suite). However, durable goods in the interim often has the potential to surprise and could provide the Buck and index with another test of resilience after the latter extended its run of consecutive closes above 90.000 on Tuesday to 9 trading sessions, and just carved out a firmer 90.432 intraday high vs 90.119 at one stage, albeit with a big helping hand from the Euro.
DXY - waiting patiently like a sniper!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
on WEEKLY: DXY is approaching strong support in green (88.0 - 89.0) so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
on H4: DXY is trading inside this red channel so we are overall bearish now, and a movement till the lower green support would be expected. Then we will be looking for buy setups!
the upper red trendline is not valid yet (as it connects only two swings) so we are waiting for a third swing to form around it to consider it valid and then buy on its break upward.
Trigger: Waiting for a momentum candle close above the gray area to buy.
for now since DXY is sitting around the upper red trendline, a bearish movement would be expected for it to form the third swing high around the trendline.
and until the buy is activated, this one would be overall bearish and can still dive inside the green zone.
As price approaches our upper blue resistance and brown trendline, we will be looking for sell setups.
Good luck!
DAX - DE30 video top-down AnalysisHello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Here is the top-down analysis for DAX, feel free to request any pair/instrument or ask any questions in the comment section below.
Best of luck!
The dollar was volatile...The dollar was volatile, with DXY trading within a 92.013-92.804 range. The low was hit just before the Markit PMI data which excelled expectations, providing a boost to the dollar amid an outflow of havens, which perhaps triggered a short squeeze and kept driving the greenback to the highs, which eventually weighed on equities. The consensus view has been short USD after the US election, and seeing counter-consensus moves extend was a risk, some analysts suggested. As equities managed to stage a slight rebound in the afternoon, the dollar reversed its initial spike but remained above 92.50. Analysts at ING write "with DXY so close to the lower end (91.75/92.00) of its four month trading range and positioning not too stretched, we’d say the downside could prove vulnerable".
S&P500 ready to go down down?After the corona recovery we topped back out above previous highs with a small shack off on new price discovery.
As ridiculous of a move as it was it had back bone and was a pretty consistent or strong growth trend, but that shake out broke trend and the second recovery has failed to make a higher high.
So now im purely looking at market structure change and looking at this current short term trend to create a lower low on the daily giving me confidence that the market may finally be starting to shift.
Are we getting ready for a big hit?