Gap is clearly going to be filled! 1 USD is soon 160 RUBWe saw this momentarily at the beginning of this atrocious and uncalled for invasion into Ukraine by russians in 2022 February.
Right then russian central bank started to "fix" the situation, but You cannot keep putting makeup on a pig and call it priced cow! russian economy is collapsing due the soon 30% interest rate and in 2% unemployed workforce in a situation where You need couple of million qualified workers still. Not to mention all the GDP rise is coming from military companies and oil selling. That soon will end as the oil gets cheaper still when Trump comes to power in 2025!
I think in mid 2025, we can see the russian economy crash in spetacular way. I think USD/RUB aorund $250 is not a work of fiction anymore.
USD-RUB
USDRUB Massive bullish break-out delivering a strong rally.The USDRUB pair has made an aggressive bullish break-out since the week of September 16, as it broke above the 1-year Lower Highs trend-line (since October 09 2023). At the same time it broke above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while sustaining a rebound off the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
As we can see on this chart, when the pair historically breaks above similar Lower Highs trend-lines, it rallies to at least the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect to see at least 110.000 on the current rally.
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USDRUB Sell opportunity at the top of the Channel Down.The USDUB pair is on the 2nd straight red candle following yesterday's strong rejection near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost broke above the overbought barrier (70.00), a level last visited on April 16 2024.
As a result, we believe that this is the start of the new Bearish Leg of the pattern. Our target is 81.200, representing a -13.49% decline (similar to the previous ones).
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USDRUB Long-term bearish continuation confirmed.The USDRUB pair has confirmed the transition from a 2-year long-term bullish trend to a bearish one, after closing below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The technical pattern that prevailed is a Channel Down, which last week almost touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), a level intact since February 06 2023, and instantly rebounded closing the 1W candle almost flat.
The last two times that the pair traded within a Channel Down pattern that hit the 1W MA100 was in 2021 and 2019 as shown on your chart. In both cases, the downtrend didn't stop on the 1W MA100 but extended to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), in 2019 it got hit, in 2021 almost.
As a result, we think this is the most optimal level to sell this pair again, and target 80.500 (just above the 1W MA200).
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USDRUB On the key 1W MA50 pivot. Trade accordingly.The USDRUB pair has bee trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 5 months and yet again is testing the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This is a highly important Support level as it has been tested 4 times in 2024 and held (even closed the 1W candles above it) on all occasions.
Naturally, as long as it holds, we remain bullish targeting 96.8000 (1.236 Fibonacci extension, which is where the February 23 2024 Higher High was priced. If it closes a candle below the 1W MA50, we will take a quick sell and target 89.9400 (Support 1).
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USDRUB Is it time to buy?We last looked into the USDRUB pair 4 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below) when we got the most optimal sell entry and easily hit our 95.000 target:
This time we transition to the 1W time-frame where the long-term trend is more evident, and it remains bullish within a Channel Up pattern that is holding since The June 27 2022 market bottom. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) has been the Resistance since the week of October 30 2023 but on the other hand the price has respected/ held the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the long-term Support, for 3 straight weeks, closing all 1W candles above it.
At the same time the 1W RSI broke and remains above its MA line, so we are giving the bullish trend a slight edge at the moment. If the pair closes a 1W candle above the 1D MA100, it will be the bullish confirmation signal we need to buy and target 103.500, which will be a +19.50% rise from the recent bottom and will test the 1.0 Fibonacci level.
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USDRUB Wonderful Fibonacci Channel trading setup.The USDRUB pair is trading on a Fibonacci Channel Up with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) providing the first level of Support. Coming of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price is on the 3rd mini Channel phase (orange) within the 1.0 and 1.5 Fibonacci levels, same as the previous (green) has been within 0.5 - 1.0 Fib and the one before (blue) within the 0.0 - 0.5 Fib.
We should be half-way through this phase so every 1.5 Fib test is a sell opportunity and every 1.0 is a buy, until the price hits the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and starts the rise to the next Fib range (1.5 - 2.0).
Currently the pair is a sell opportunity, targeting 95.000.
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💾 U.S. Dollar / Russian Ruble TOMI know you Forex people are all experts so there is no need for much "talking"/writing.
USDRUB goes above EMA50 weekly.
Bullish wave confirmed.
Potential targets are marked with a black dashed line on the chart.
This rally should last 2-3 months more or less.
Going below EMA50 invalidates most of the bullish momentum.
Namaste.
💾 U.S. Dollar Bullish Against The Russian RubleWe are looking at a monthly chart, this is an extremely bullish setup.
USDRUB about to go up strong.
What we see here after the May-June 2022 crash is a recovery phase.
This recovery phase is completed December 2022 when USDRUB closes above EMA100, EMA10, EMA50 and EMA21 in the same month.
At this point the bullish bias is confirmed.
January 2023 was a month of consolidation, the session closed above the moving averages.
In February 2023 the bullish trend starts following the recovery.
In March 2023 we get bullish confirmation/continuation and in April the bullish bias intensifies.
After 4 months of slow but steady growth, the accumulation phase is reaching its end and we should see a reverse of the move that happened between May and June 2022.
As it crashed fast and strong, it will rise with force.
This analysis is supported by additional signals.
The MACD has gone bullish as it trades monthly above 0.
A very strong bullish cross took place and the histogram is full green.
It is also trading above Fib. resistance (now support).
Plenty of room available for additional growth.
The RSI can only be consider super strong when trading above 50 monthly, a great reading... Here is the chart:
Invalidation point
For this analysis to become invalid we would need to see a close monthly at least below EMA100 or $63. Technically speaking, the bullish bias still remains valid even with such a drop.
Prices would need to close below HKEX:50 for the current structure to breakdown.
Everything is pointing up.
I am sharing this update because many people showed interest in my previous analysis "USDRUB_TOM" from Dec. 2022, shared in the "Related Ideas".
Thanks a lot for your time and support.
Namaste.
USDRUB Supported and with a STOCH Bullish Cross!The USDRUB has been trading within a 5 month Rectangle pattern ever since the price retraced from the start of the war High. The price made a High on October 11 and has been pulling back since but for the 7th straight session, it remains supported on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which since late July has been trading around the Rectangle's middle (median), thus acting as somewhat a pivot point.
This level of Support along with the fact that the STOCH RSI is making a Bullish Cross, presents a short-term buy opportunity, first towards the top of the High Volatility Zone and then towards the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed).
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USDRUB 4 years of slow rising before the next stress eventThe USDRUB pair is consolidating in recent weeks since the short-lived rebound on the June 27 (1W candle) low. The inability to break above either the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) or the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) should keep the price action rather neutral for now. As you see the long-term bullish Channel that started after the July 2008 low, is still holding as the June Low was contained just above its Higher Lows trend-line.
After such a Low, the pair tends to start a Channel Up on a slow pace within the respective Fibonacci levels. This is a long-term accumulation phase before a major stress event rapidly sends the RUB depreciating against the USD.
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GOLD the shinny metal sustaining the RUBWith U.S FED re-affirming its intention to fight inflation and Russia having its reserves in gold whereas U.S being reliant on foreign debt and oil for the workings of the U.S dollar. I now expect a deep relentless dive in gold markets. Target 1070$ and possibly lower in the next 12 months. Nevertheless this will not be in one go. There are many levels where price could bounce to further trap Gold bugs.
USDRUB made 7 year lows but getting close to long-term buy levelThe USDRUB pair hit this week the lowest levels since June 2015, marking a remarkable turnaround for the Ruble (drop on the pair around -65%) since the March 2022 High at the peak of the Russia - Ukraine invasion.
With this massive drop, the pair is getting very close to the Higher Lows trend-line that started during the subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. on July 2008. This chart is on the 1W time-frame (log), with the RSI also approaching its own multi-year Support Zone. With the April - May 2015 Support Zone (made during another period of huge uncertainty in Russian economy) also close around 49.00, it is obvious that the price is near the most significant long-term Support cluster.
As a result, our long-term strategy on the pair has turned heavily bullish, targeting at first the Pivot trend-line (71.00) that should act as the first Resistance. The pattern is invalidated if we get a monthly candle closing below the 2008 Higher Lows trend-line.
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USDRUB for a new ATH following the crisis 🦐USDRUB on the monthly chart is testing a historical resistance at the 80 levels after the test with a spike of the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
The market after the recent news on the Ukrainian crisis is pushing higher and we can expect some break above for a new ATH.
How can we approach this scenario?
Even though is very risky to trade with high volatility if the price will break above we can move to the lower timeframes and check for a possible long entry.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Ruble Where You Going ?
Hi traders:
With the tension between Russia and Ukraine, we can expect the market to be volatile and moving during an uncertainly time.
As we know, USD is a safe haven currency, and here on USDRUB, we can see clear bullish price action on the bigger time frames.
With many bullish impulse phases follow by bullish continuations, price is getting push up to all time highs.
This is where usually price will consolidate, and potential to continue or reverse back down.
For me, my personal options is leaning more upside and continuation up move.
What we should wait for is some sort of bullish continuation correction on the lower time frames, to confirm the upside move.
With the situation between the two countries may get worse, USDRUB could on route to a new highs.
thank you
USDRUB can top around 93.500 but is due for a sharp correction.This is the much talked about (due to the pending sanctions against Russia) USDRUB pair on the 1W time-frame.
As you see, it follows a very structured pattern within a multi-year bullish Channel. The price tops every time above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and one Fibonacci extension higher in the Channel than the previous Higher High. The sequence indicates that the next Higher High should be around 93.500. It is still a solid buy on the short-term but if the Cycle continues to repeat this pattern, then is due for a correction on the long-term back to Fib 1.0. Trade according to your horizon and risk tolerance.
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