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USD-RUB

ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.19As widely expected USDRUB selling off from the 64.2x highs and a good time to collect half our chips from the table. Well done sellers, a textbook zigzag and flawless trade since the channel breakup so far. The spike was a textbook flushout with US sanctions acting as the catalyst. For those tracking the previous diagrams the flows are wide open in the range, actively playing it makes complete sense to me in this environment: Eventually expecting the grind towards the lows, risk sentiment around the COVID-19 will continue in the driving seat for further action here. Tracking closely 62.7x lows. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.14I will keep this one quick as it is Friday afternoon... its clear that high beta has been in demand from some faster hands of late. Nothing of meaningful weight in the ladder, I think we will test the highs before pulling back. Another technical break to the topside in play with some strong US data. This looks set to test the highs in USDRUB for now. Tactical long on a breakout recommended. You will notice how we never got the breakdown: Buyers came in strong and seems happy to play the topside for now. A push from local banks in Russia as capital begins to pour back in will be enough to get us back to the 64.2 highs where I would look to cover and recycle shorts. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the comments with your views on RUB!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.12A very advanced playing field in commodities and commodity currencies and with offshore sharks on the sell side in USDRUB there is a lot more room to go. The highs at 63.50 will act as strong resistance while to the downside initial targets located at 62.7x, 61.5x and the final swing clear at 60. This is the same levels from the previous diagram: No surprises sellers were fired up and ready to act again. There is a lot of room to the downside should we find a bounce into March for Oil. Happy to sit short and looking for a technical break with the NY open. Good luck all RUB bulls, as usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Spot Commentary 2020.01.20Now bull's reserves have been activated and exhausted, the diagonal swing towards the new lows at the key 60 handle is the aim. This momentum play is a characteristic impulsive swing. The moves constitute a great example of the lust to exploit the brilliant effect of technical analysis, because of the accuracy that is endowed with incredible resilience. The first compelling chart shows the highs being set in this monthly swing; the total removal of its lows opened up the same flows in EURRUB: The swings we have just glimpsed at are quite typical and although it will likely not feel necessary here, the importance of in checking the 60 handle for headlines and masses. Mostly only one player benefits from this entire flow, but that is quite sufficient. I expect sellers to show some strength over the coming days and weeks. A lot of talk of few large hands in Oil buying dividends. In any case looking for the infamous 60 target. Thanks as usual for all the support with likes, comments, charts and etc. Jump into the conversation with any questions.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2019.02.12Here we go for a round of EM FX market updates and with Oil on the move first up USDRUB. After the doldrums of Thanksgiving liquidity is starting to enter back into play, although with market out of position there is no need to overload exposure. The USD tide is turning and clients here are pressing the buy side on RUB crosses to play the dollar sell-off. More activity coming with NY session, a good level to pick up offers as the cross drives through technical momentum at 64.3x. Best of luck all those in RUB
Short
by ridethepig
3
USDRUB bullish wedge at support zoneLooks like a nice wedge forming at a long term support zone here. Going to try a small size now and sit and wait for this to play out. The red zone could still be a resistance. With wedges like these, they usually play out, but they can make a false breakout to the downside first as well. If this happens, it's important to see a good bounce up as well, like a small V shape. That usually shows the real direction of the whales then. That red zone, is the level to break for a good bullish wedge. So the safe play is to see the wedge break. If this whole thing fails, then i am simply going to wait and see how things go. That second green might still give support as well. So there is a lot of potential on the upside for the mid-term, but short term the trend is still down
by botje11
2
Second stage of EM rally?After previously tracking the reversal (see attached: "Another key reversal in play in USDRUB") finally the break of 65 has come. From a technical standpoint this was important as it unlocked the 62.5 lows. Russia has been one of the out performers on the currency board so far this year and I continue to see scope for more gains, irrespective of the very near term reversal in dollar. The risk here to the setup is coming from sanctions related risk. Russian authorities have been quick to take measures to insulate the economy (reaction to DASKAA bill). Best of luck all those trading EM and thanks for keeping the likes and comments rolling
Short
by ridethepig
USD/RUB 1H Chart: Short-term trend in sightThe Russian Ruble has been depreciating against the US Dollar since the beginning of October. This movement has been bounded in an ascending channel. Currently, the currency pair is testing the upper channel line at 66.40. If given channel holds, a reversal south occurs in the nearest future, and the rate aims for the support cluster formed by a combination of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs in the 65.72/65.89 range. Otherwise, a breakout north occurs within the following hours. Important resistance level to look out for is the monthly R1 at 66.50.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/RUB 1H Chart: Falling wedge in sightThe Russian Ruble has been appreciating against the US Dollar after the currency pair reversed from the resistance level formed by the monthly PP at 67.17. This movement has been bounded in a falling wedge. As apparent on the chart, a breakout from the pattern should occur in the nearest future. From a theoretical point of view, the exchange rate should break given wedge north and surge towards the 66.40/66.80 range. However, technical indicators suggest that expected advance might not be immediate, and the pair could decline to the psychological level at 65.20.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/RUB 1H Chart: Short-term channel in sightThe Russian Ruble has been depreciating against the US Dollar since early August under the pressure from new the US sanctions. At the time of this analysis, the exchange rate had reached the lower boundary of a short-term ascending channel near 67.20. It is very likely that an upside momentum starts prevailing in the nearest future as the 55-period SMA (4H) push the rate up. Technical indicators on the 4H and 1D time-framers support this bullish scenario. The nearest target for the exchange rate is the 68.00/50 area.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Possible pattern recurrence. Neutral.USDRUB has broken the previous Rectangle on 1D to the upside (RSI = 67.004, MACD = 1.132, Highs/Lows = 1.0010, B/BP = 2.0066). However the currently High Volatility on 1D (ATR = 0.9168) as well as the overbought action on 1W (RSI = 73.797, STOCHRSI = 76.158, Williams = -15.552, CCI = 219.8375) indicate that the pair may enter another consolidation phase/ Rectangle. That is a scalping opportunity with (due to the 1W Channel Up) a bullish primary sentiment (dip buying).
by InvestingScope